October 6 2017 Tennessee Market Highlights Number: 40

FED CATTLE: Fed cattle trade was not es-tablished at press. Asking prices on a live basis were $110 to $112 while bids were mainly $106. Asking prices on a dressed basis were $174 plus with bids at $168 to $172.

The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $108.74 live, up $0.86 from last week and not test dressed. A year ago prices were $100.91 live and $159.06 dressed.

If one wants to be in a market where a lot is going on but nothing is happening then the fed cattle market is the place to be. Cattle feeders and packers remain at a standstill and both parties have good arguments. Cattle feeders are asking higher prices and the futures market supports cattle feeders asking higher prices. Alternatively, packers are bidding steady to lower prices com-pared to a week ago because pushing beef prices higher has been difficult. The packer is making more money than the feedlot at this time which means they could pay a little more, but it is doubtful they are going to willingly pass some of their margin to the cattle feeder as a good will offering. The market will likely see more weeks of this action.

BEEF CUTOUT: At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $197.39 up $0.14 from Thursday and up $0.67 from last Friday. The Select cutout was $188.15 down $0.63 from Thursday and down $0.81 from last Friday. The Choice Select spread was $9.24 compared to $7.76 a week ago.

The Choice beef market remains fairly stag-nant compared to last week while no one is showing Select beef much support either. Consumers have continued to purchase beef throughout 2017 which remains a strong sign for the cattle complex, but the early fall period is simply a difficult time to push beef prices higher given the quantity of beef being produced. Beef production tends to be seasonally highest during the

early weeks of fall which is a factor of in-creasing slaughter rate and increasing slaughter weights. There have been several weeks recently when federally inspected cattle slaughter has dared to reach the 650,000 head per week mark compared to the five year average when bumping up against 620,000 head per week was a big deal. Cattle dressed weights continue to seasonally increase but remain below year ago levels by 10 to 15 pounds. Larger slaughter and relatively lower dressed weights are largely due to increased cow slaughter compared to last year though steer and heifer slaughter are above year ago numbers.

OUTLOOK: If there was ever a strong Octo-ber feeder cattle market then it is happen-ing right now. Several loads of feeder cattle were traded in Tennessee this week with a fairly wide weight range across those put on the auction block. Narrowing the focus, 800 to 900 pound steers brought $1,210 to $1,320 per head which resulted in an aver-age negative basis just under $6 per hun-dredweight for 8 to 9 weight steers. Similar-ly, the value of 725 to 825 pound heifers ranged from $1,050 to $1,150 with an aver-age negative basis near $9.50 per hundred-weight. Prices themselves are important to note given their magnitude, but the strong basis for the time of year is also notewor-thy. Looking back at the past five years of data, the basis for 800 to 900 pound steers has averaged in the $12 to $14 range which means the October cash price in Tennessee is generally $12 to $14 lower than October feeder cattle futures. However, based on week one of October, basis is $6 to $8 stronger than the five year average which is worth $48 to $72 more per head on 800 to 900 pound steers. The five year average basis for 700 to 800 pound heifers in Ten-nessee is $13 to $21 putting the cash price at a severe discount to the futures market. However, the fairly strong basis this week

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Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew P. Griffith Trends for the Week Compared to a Week Ago

Slaughter Cows

$2 to $3 lower

Slaughter Bulls

$1 to $3 lower

Feeder Steers

Unevenly steady

Feeder Heifers

Less than 600 lbs. $1 to $3 higher, 600 lbs. and heavier unevenly steady

Feeder Cattle Index

Wednesday’s index: 156.21

Fed Cattle

The 5-area live price of $108.74 is up $0.86. The dressed price was not tested this week.

Corn

December closed at $3.50 a bushel, down 5 cents since last Friday.

Soybeans

November closed at $9.72 a bushel, up 4 cents since last Friday.

Wheat

December closed at $4.43 a bushel, down 5 cents since last Friday.

Cotton

December closed at 68.84 cents per lb, up 0.39 cents since last Friday.

2

resulted in higher values for heifers than may have been ex-pected otherwise. Sometimes producers forget about the influ-ence basis can have on the total value of an animal and other times producers are just not aware of basis. Regardless of the situation, it would be wise to familiarize oneself with basis val-ues for different weight cattle. Now turning to the calf market, calf prices witnessed minimal changed compared to last week based on the Tennessee weekly auction summary. However, the failure of the calf market to follow the strength in the feed-er cattle market may be an indication of further seasonal de-clines in the calf market. Producers should consider this when considering marketing options. One market that continues to take the seasonal hit is the slaughter cow market. They are ex-pected to see further declines.

ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK: The question this week comes from a phone conversation from a producer in East Tennessee. The question was centered on the futures market with much of the discussion focused on the difference between the feeder cattle futures price and the local cash price at the auction mar-ket. The difference in the cash price and the futures market is what is known as “basis.” Basis values depend on the animal’s gender, weight, regional location, time of year, and buyer per-ceptions. Tennessee feeder cattle cash prices are generally low-er than feeder cattle futures prices. Feeder cattle futures prices represent an 800 pound steer and should eventually converge with the CME Feeder Cattle index price which is actual cash sales of cattle weighing 700 to 900 pounds in a 12 state region including the Great Plains and West. Historical Tennessee basis estimates can be found at the following website https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/Documents/publications/Basis2017.pdf.

Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu or send a letter to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN 37996.

FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $111.03 +0.88; December $116.93 +0.88; February $120.73 +0.95; Feeder cattle –October $153.95 +0.38; November $155.75 +0.90; Janu-ary $153.70 +1.13; March $151.65 +1.10; December corn

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Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith

closed at $3.50 up $0.01 from Thursday.

Thursday October 5, 2017

Month Class III Close Class IV Close

Oct 16.75 15.14

Nov 16.50 15.22

Dec 16.30 15.22

Jan 15.90 15.20

Feb 15.80 15.30

Milk Futures

Cattle Hogs

———— Number of head ————

This week (4 days) 114,750 457,000

Last week (4 days) 118,000 460,000

Year ago (4 days) 112,500 439,250

This week as percentage of

Week ago (%) 97% 99%

Year ago (%) 102% 104%

Average Daily Slaughter USDA Box Beef Cutout Value

Choice 1-3 600-900 lbs

Select 1-3 600-900 lbs

———————— $/cwt —-———————

Thursday 197.25 188.78

Last Week 196.41 189.11

Year ago 184.10 176.26

Change from week ago +0.84 -0.33

Change from year ago +13.15 +12.52

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Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith

Overview Corn was down; soybeans and cotton were up; and wheat was mixed for the week. Stocks-to-use ratio is a commonly used measure to predict marketing year aver-age price for corn and soybeans. Simply stated stocks-to-use is a measure of the

amount of a commodity held in reserve (marketing year ending stocks) compared to use for a specified time (annual consumption or annual consumption plus annual exports). U.S. stocks-to-use ratios (marketing year ending stocks divided by domestic consumption plus exports) for corn and soybeans are currently projected by the USDA to be 16.4% and 11.0%, respectively. Using a simple linear relationship from 2006 to 2016 the marketing year aver-age price for 2017 would be projected to be $2.58/bu and $8.93/bu for corn and soybeans, respectively. World stocks-to-use ratios (marketing year ending stocks divided by consumption) for corn and soybeans are currently projected by the USDA to be 19.2% and 28.3%, respectively. Using the same simple linear relationship from 2006 to 2016 the marketing average price would be projected to be $4.04/bu for corn and $8.99/bu for soybeans. Thus, for corn one or both of the predictions will be incorrect, however this does provide a range of price outcomes that can guide decisions. For corn, the U.S. price prediction ($2.58/bu) is driven by the 2.335 billion bushel ending stocks estimate (down 15 million from last year). Whereas the world projected price prediction ($4.04/bu) reflects a projected 964 million bushel decline in global stocks (8.935 to 7.971 billion bushels). For soybeans, the estimated U.S. ($8.93/bu) and world ($8.99/bu) prices are similar. However, due to only two primary production regions (U.S. and Brazil/Argentina) and one primary importer (China) it is very easy to argue that soybean production or use (and consequently price) have the potential for greater volatility than corn. Additionally, it is important to note that supply and demand numbers are esti-mates and are likely to be modified as more information is revealed. Stocks-to-use ratios are a useful tool in projecting prices or projecting a price response to a change in supply or demand, however it is im-portant to note projections are imperfect and rely on the accuracy of the underlying data. Lastly, a small change in stocks-to-use estimates can dramatically change predicted prices. For example, if U.S. stocks-to-use for soybeans decreased 2% from 11% to 9% the projected marketing year price would increase from $8.93/bu to $9.64/bu (up $0.71/bu). Corn December 2017 corn futures closed at $3.50 down 5 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2017 corn futures traded between $3.46 and $3.56. Across Tennessee, average basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at Memphis, Northwest Barge Points, Northwest, and Upper-middle Tennessee and weakened at Lower-middle Tennessee. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 76 under to 15 over the December futures contract with an average of 30 under at the end of the week. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn dented at 96% compared to 93% last week, 100% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; corn mature at 68% compared to 51% last week, 84% last year, and a 5-year average of 78%; corn harvested at 17% compared to 11% last week, 23% last year, and a 5-year average of 26%; and corn condition at 63% good-to-excellent and 12% poor-to-very poor. In Tennessee, the Crop Pro-gress report estimated corn condition at 87% good-to-excellent and 3% poor-to-very poor; corn dented at 100% compared to 99% last week, 100% last year, and a 5-year average of 100%; corn mature at 96% compared to 95% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average

(Continued on page 4)

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Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith

of 96%; and corn harvested at 74% compared to 59% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 73%. Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec future spreads were 13 and 46 cents, respectively. Corn net sales reported by exporters from September 22-28 were above expectations with net sales of 32.0 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were up from last week at 38.0 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 26% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to a 5-year average of 33%. Ethanol production for the week ending September 29 was 1.010 million barrels per day up 14,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 21.545 million barrels, up 805,000 barrels. In Tennessee, January 2018 cash forward contracts averaged $3.60 with a range of $3.46 to $3.74. March 2018 corn futures closed at $3.63 up 4 cents since last Friday. December 2018 corn futures closed at $3.96 down 3 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.00 December 2018 Put Option costing 31 cents establishing a $3.69 futures floor. Soybeans November 2017 soybean futures closed at $9.72 up 4 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2017 soybean futures traded be-tween $9.52 and $9.73. Average soybean basis strengthened at Memphis, Northwest Barge Points, Upper-middle, Northwest, and Lower-middle Tennessee. Basis ranged from 75 under to 15 under the November futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 40 under the November futures contract. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans dropping leaves at 80% compared to 63% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 78%; soybeans harvested at 22% compared to 10% last week, 24% last year, and a 5-year average of 26%; and soybean condition at 60% good-to-excellent and 12% poor-to-very poor. In Tennes-see, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 78% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; soybeans dropping leaves at 70% compared to 54% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 66%; and soybeans harvested at 14% compared to 6% last week, 27% last year, and a 5-year average of 18%. November/December 2017 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.78 at the end of the week.

Nov/Jan and Nov/Nov future spreads were 11 cents and 19 cents, respectively. In Tennessee, January 2018 soybean cash contracts average $9.62 with a range of $9.31 to $9.85. Net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 37.3 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 36.2 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commit-ments were 38% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5-year average of 54%. January 2018 soybean futures closed at $9.83 up 5 cents since last Friday. November 2018 soybean futures closed at $9.91 up 5 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.00 November 2018 Put Option which would cost 70 cents and set a $9.30 futures floor. November/December 2018 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.50 at the end of the week. Cotton Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 5 were 68.27 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 69.52 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted world price (AWP) decreased 0.51 cents to 60.04 cents per pound. Net sales reported by exporters were down from last week with net sales of 161,000 bales for the 2017/18 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down from last week at 114,900 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 53% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 43%. Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec cotton futures spreads were -0.55 cent and -0.38 cents, respectively. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton bolls opening at 67% compared to 57% last week, 70% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%; cotton harvested at 17% compared to 14% last week, 15% last year, and a 5-year average of 13%; and cotton condition at 57% good-to-excellent and 16% poor-to-very poor. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 81% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; cotton bolls opening at 77% compared to 65% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%; and cotton harvested at 4% compared to 1% last week, 14% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. December 2017 cotton futures closed at 68.84 cents up 0.39 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2017 cotton futures traded between 67.4 and 69.97 cents. March 2018 cotton futures closed at 68.29 up 0.51 cents since last Friday. December 2018 cotton futures closed at 68.46 up 0.51 cents since last Friday. Downside price protec-tion could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2018 Put Option costing 5.2 cents establishing a 63.8 cent futures floor.

(Continued on page 5)

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Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith

Wheat In Memphis, old crop cash wheat ranged from $4.15 to $4.23. Wheat net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 18.1 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year. Exports for the week were up from last week at 26.3 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 53% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 57%. Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul future spreads were 19 cents and 47 cents, respectively.

December 2017 wheat futures closed at $4.43 down 5 cents since last Friday. December 2017 wheat futures traded between $4.38 and $4.50 this week. December wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.27. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted at 36% compared to 24% last week, 41% last year, and a 5-year average of 43%; and winter wheat emerged at 12% compared to 18% last year and a 5-year average of 16%. In Tennessee, winter wheat planted was estimated at 4% compared to 1% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 6%; and winter wheat emerged at 1%. March 2018 wheat futures closed at $4.62 down 4 cents from last Friday. June/July 2018 cash forward contracts ranged from $4.56 to $5.00 for the week. July 2018 wheat futures closed at $4.90 the same as last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.00 July 2018 Put Option costing 37 cents establishing a $4.63 futures floor.

Additional Information: Links for data presented:

U.S. Export Sales - https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html

USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx

EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production - https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm

EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates - https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm

Upland Cotton Reports - https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc

Tennessee Crop Progress - https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/

U.S. Crop Progress - http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048

USDA AMS: Market News - https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.

6

Friday, September 29, 2017 — Thursday, October 5, 2017

Commodity Contract Month Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

Soybeans Nov 9.68 9.57 9.55 9.58 9.68

($/bushel) Jan 9.78 9.67 9.66 9.68 9.79

Mar 9.87 9.77 9.75 9.78 9.88

May 9.95 9.85 9.84 9.87 9.97

Jul 10.02 9.96 9.91 9.94 10.04

Aug 10.03 9.94 9.92 9.95 10.05

Corn Dec 3.55 3.51 3.49 3.48 3.49

($/bushel) Mar 3.67 3.64 3.62 3.61 3.62

May 3.76 3.73 3.71 3.70 3.71

Jul 3.83 3.80 3.79 3.78 3.79

Sep 3.90 3.87 3.86 3.85 3.86

Dec 3.99 3.97 3.95 3.94 3.95

Wheat Dec 4.48 4.44 4.48 4.42 4.40

($/bushel) Mar 4.66 4.63 4.65 4.60 4.59

May 4.79 4.76 4.78 4.74 4.73

Jul 4.90 4.89 4.90 4.86 4.86

Sep 5.06 5.04 5.05 5.01 5.01

Soybean Meal Oct 311 309 307 306 312

($/ton) Dec 315 313 311 311 316

Jan 317 315 313 313 319

Mar 320 318 316 316 321

May 323 321 319 318 324

Jul 325 323 321 320 326

Cotton Oct 69.08 68.20 68.15 69.43 68.90

(¢/lb) Dec 68.45 67.57 67.52 68.80 68.27

Mar 67.78 67.02 66.81 67.91 67.68

May 68.35 67.71 67.54 68.62 68.40

Jul 68.81 68.25 68.12 69.16 68.91

Live Cattle Oct 109.10 107.82 109.10 109.07 110.15

($/cwt) Dec 115.25 113.42 114.90 114.92 116.05

Feb 118.62 117.22 118.52 118.92 119.77

Apr 119.85 118.92 120.12 120.25 121.10

Jun 113.05 112.07 113.52 113.70 114.47

Feeder Cattle Sep 152.96 152.96 ------ ------ ------

($/cwt) Oct 152.22 150.35 152.42 152.10 153.57

Nov 154.00 151.60 154.30 153.50 154.85

Jan 151.52 149.40 152.00 151.02 152.57

Mar 148.72 147.37 149.87 149.00 150.55

Apr 148.65 147.47 149.60 148.90 150.37

Market Hogs Oct 55.40 57.25 59.87 60.32 60.92

($/cwt) Dec 59.95 61.97 62.07 61.90 62.80

Feb 65.05 67.07 67.35 67.30 67.60

Apr 69.85 71.85 72.00 71.85 71.80

May 75.67 76.90 77.15 76.92 76.95

Futures Settlement Prices: Crops & Livestock

7

Cattle Receipts: This week: 9,884 (11) Week ago: 8,633 (11) Year ago: 7,728 (10)

This Week Last Week Year Ago

Low High Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Average

—————————————————————— $/cwt ——————————————————————

Steers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 136.00 185.00 159.14 159.47 127.18

400-500 lbs 135.00 171.00 151.89 150.41 118.15

500-600 lbs 116.00 154.00 140.08 142.17 110.46

600-700 lbs 120.00 155.00 138.37 137.83 107.33

700-800 lbs 122.50 141.00 131.44 132.33 105.56

Steers: Small Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 125.00 165.00 140.91 137.57 115.77

400-500 lbs 130.00 142.50 136.04 138.23 108.38

500-600 lbs 112.00 135.00 123.28 122.96 ———

600-700 lbs 105.00 124.00 115.70 ——— ———

Steers: Medium/Large Frame #2-3

300-400 lbs 126.00 172.50 144.52 144.40 115.31

400-500 lbs 125.00 147.00 136.24 134.30 106.13

500-600 lbs 110.00 137.00 127.54 128.29 101.42

600-700 lbs 115.00 135.00 124.37 124.76 92.70

700-800 lbs 100.00 125.00 113.89 123.31 94.67

Holstein Steers

300-400 lbs 90.00 100.00 94.56 76.01 ———

500-600 lbs 76.00 83.00 81.24 73.41 ———

700-800 lbs 76.00 83.00 79.69 ——— ———

Slaughter Cows & Bulls

Breakers 75-80% 42.00 49.22 52.19 53.32 56.00

Boners 80-85% 53.48 56.08 58.11 46.50 63.00

Lean 85-90% 37.50 57.00 47.14 48.39 53.65

Bulls YG 1 67.50 85.00 76.33 77.88 83.47

Heifers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 123.00 156.00 137.42 135.81 113.40

400-500 lbs 118.00 148.00 132.93 131.60 103.60

500-600 lbs 115.00 145.00 127.40 125.83 95.13

600-700 lbs 110.00 138.00 123.59 123.59 92.21

Heifers: Small Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 112.50 128.00 122.93 120.33 92.94

400-500 lbs 110.00 127.50 117.37 113.36 85.15

500-600 lbs 90.00 113.50 98.51 114.57 78.92

600-700 lbs 106.00 110.00 107.02 ———

Heifers: Medium/Large Frame #2-3

300-400 lbs 110.00 144.00 128.56 121.87 101.71

400-500 lbs 104.00 136.00 125.08 121.33 92.80

500-600 lbs 103.00 126.00 117.75 117.20 84.68

600-700 lbs 106.00 120.00 113.37 113.00 81.17

Prices on Tennessee Reported Livestock Auctions for the week ending October 6, 2017

8

Friday, September 29, 2017 — Thursday, October 5, 2017

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

———————–——————————————— $/bushel ———————————————————–———

No. 2 Yellow Soybeans

Memphis 9.18-9.20 8.97-9.08 8.95-9.10 9.18-9.18 9.40-9.53

N.W. B.P. 9.10-9.27 8.90-8.95 8.80-8.95 9.09-9.20 9.30-9.33

N.W. TN 8.88-9.14 8.95-8.97 8.80-8.96 8.83-8.99 8.96-9.23

Upper Md. 9.07-9.48 8.96-9.17 8.95-8.96 8.98-8.98 9.23-9.38

Lower Md. 9.33-9.38 9.22-9.32 9.20-9.30 9.23-9.33 9.33-9.43

Yellow Corn

Memphis 3.00-3.10 2.96-3.06 2.94-3.04 3.08-3.08 3.14-3.19

N.W. B.P. 3.00-3.11 2.86-2.89 2.74-2.91 3.06-3.12 3.14-3.19

N.W. TN 3.20-3.26 3.17-3.21 3.15-3.24 3.13-3.23 3.15-3.24

Upper Md. 2.86-3.26 2.81-3.21 2.79-2.89 2.78-2.88 2.79-3.24

Lower Md. 3.60-3.65 3.42-3.66 3.40-3.64 3.38-3.63 3.40-3.64

Wheat

Memphis 4.23-4.23 4.19-4.19 4.23-4.23 4.17-4.17 4.15-4.15

Prices Paid to Farmers by Elevators

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Tennessee 500-600 lbs. M-1 Steer Prices2016, 2017 and 5-year average

2011/2015 Avg 2016 2017

85

105

125

145

165

185

Tennessee 700-800 lbs. M-1 Steer Prices2016, 2017 and 5-year average

2011/2015 Avg 2016 2017

8595

105115125135145155

5-Area Finished Cattle Prices2015, 2016 and 5-year average

2011/2015 Av g 2016 2017

35455565758595

105

Tennessee Slaughter Cow PricesBreakers 75-80%

2015, 2016 and 5-year average

2011/2015 2016 2017

9

Browning Livestock - October 4, 2017 1 load of 70 heifers; avg. wt. 700 lbs.; $142.00 Hardin County Stockyard - October 4, 2017 1 load of 70 steers; avg. wt. 688 lbs.; $153.50 Mid-South Livestock - October 2, 2017 1 load of 67 steers; avg. wt. 694 lbs.; $153.25 1 load of 68 steers; avg. wt. 755 lbs.; $151.00 Athens Stockyard - October 4, 2017 1 load of heifers; mixed; est. wt. 620 lbs.; $148.00 1 load of steers; mixed; est. wt. 850 lbs.; $149.50 Bluegrass Stockyards - September 26, 2017 2 loads of steers; blk/bwf; est. wt. 820 lbs.; $148.25 1 load of steers; mostly blk/bwf; est. wt. 830 lbs.; $147.40

Lower Middle Tennessee Cattlemens Video Board Sale Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 09/01/2017 For complete report: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nv_ls184.txt 10/4/17 Warren County Livestock Receipts: 1,677 (Prices for Blk, BWF, CharX) Steers: Med & Lg 1 Heifers: Med & Lg 1 301-350 lbs 301-350 lbs 139.00 351-400 lbs 158.50-161.50 351-400 lbs 143.00 401-450 lbs 158.00-160.50 401-450 lbs 135.00-137.00 451-500 lbs 155.75-159.00 451-500 lbs 133.50-139.50 501-550 lbs 153.00-158.50 501-550 lbs 127.00-135.75 551-600 lbs 147.25-151.75 551-600 lbs 125.50-132.75 601-700 lbs 148.00-150.50 601-700 lbs 126.00-132.75 701-850 lbs 134.00-139.50 701-850 lbs 125.00-127.50 850 and over 129.00-131.50 851 and over Steers: Med & Lg 2 Heifers: Med & Lg 2 301-350 lbs 146.00-156.00 301-350 lbs 111.00-135.00 351-400 lbs 155.50-156.50 351-400 lbs 122.00 401-450 lbs 142.00-149.50 401-450 lbs 125.00-136.00 451-500 lbs 135.00-151.75 451-500 lbs 118.00-129.50 501-600 lbs 134.00-146.00 501-600 lbs 120.50-133.75 601-700 lbs 140.00-145.00 601-700 lbs 125.00-126.00 701-850 lbs 130.00-134.00 701-850 lbs 116.00-123.00 901-950 lbs 130.00 851 and over 120.00 Bulls: Med & Lg 1-2 301-400 lbs 140.00-157.00 401-500 lbs 138.00-146.50 501-600 lbs 129.00-134.00 601-700 lbs 123.00-128.50 701-800 lbs 109.50-117.00

Video Sales & Loads Self-Reported and Self-Graded Livestock Markets

10/3/17 Somerville Livestock Sales Receipts: 222 Steers/Bulls: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg 1-2 300-400 lbs 152.00-167.00 300-400 lbs 126.00-137.00 400-500 lbs 129.00-155.00 400-500 lbs 123.00-135.00 500-600 lbs 123.00-133.00 500-600 lbs 116.00-126.00 600-700 lbs 113.00-135.00 600-700 lbs 112.00-119.00 700-800 lbs 111.00-125.00 10/3/17 TN Livestock Producers Fayetteville Receipts: 532 (242 graded & grouped) Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg 1-2 300-400 lbs 132.50-137.00 300-400 lbs 124.50-125.00 400-500 lbs 150.50-160.00 400-500 lbs 122.00-128.00 500-600 lbs 140.00-150.00 500-600 lbs 122.00-126.00 600-700 lbs 137.00-145.50 600-700 lbs 119.50-124.00 700-800 lbs 135.50-142.50 700-800 lbs 119.00 800-900 lbs 130.50 800-900 lbs 112.00 Bulls: Med & Lg 1-2 400-500 lbs 147.00-157.00 500-600 lbs 130.00-137.00 600-700 lbs 124.00-129.50 10/1/17 KY/TN Livestock Cross Plains Receipts: 250 Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg 1 300-350 lbs 145.00-165.00 300-350 lbs 135.00-151.00 350-400 lbs 145.00-158.00 350-400 lbs 140.00-146.00 400-450 lbs 139.00-160.00 400-450 lbs 127.00-140.00 450-500 lbs 135.00-150.00 450-500 lbs 129.00-135.00 500-550 lbs 137.00-145.00 500-550 lbs 128.00-133.00 550-600 lbs 138.00-142.00 550-600 lbs 122.00-132.00 600-700 lbs 115.00-127.00 700-800 lbs 113.00-122.00 Bulls: Med & Lg 1-2 300-350 lbs 155.00-159.00 350-400 lbs 148.00-153.00 400-450 lbs 139.00-150.00 450-500 lbs 132.00-140.00 500-550 lbs 130.00-137.00 550-600 lbs 128.00-136.00 600-700 lbs 123.00-128.00 700-800 lbs 108.00-116.00

Video Board Sale and Graded Sales

10

How can we train the next generation of ranch managers?

Burke Teichert Oct 05, 2017

After writing last month’s column on managing for profit, I got to thinking about the advancing age of most of America’s farm-ers and ranchers. It appears that in only a few cases are the reins being passed to the next generation.

I have to ask why? Has the next generation decided that ranch-ing can’t be profitable and enjoyable and, therefore, have al-ready left the home place to find a better future? Are Mom and Dad putting off the issues of intergenerational transfer of man-agement and ownership?

Following those questions, I began to reflect on the complexity of management in a farming or ranching system which com-bines the difficulty of prediction in biological systems buffeted by climate and good business practices. This complexity of farming and ranching systems requires a high level of compe-tence, work, passion and leadership in those wanting to be-come qualified, successful managers.

I frequently get requests for names of qualified managers. The truly good ones are either self-employed on their family opera-tion or are employed by absentee owners and are very satisfied with their jobs—they are also well seasoned and well paid, so not attractive for someone who wants a manager for the typi-cal small- to moderate-sized operation.

So, that leads to the next questions: Where do we find them? How do they become qualified?

I can tell you from too much experience that a college degree in an agricultural discipline does not qualify them. It is a start and some become qualified very quickly. However, most take some time; and, along the way, some of them decide they don’t want the manager’s job. Some want the title and salary of a manager, but don’t really want the manager’s job.

Too many of today’s so called “managers” fall into this catego-ry. They have the position, but don’t do the “manager’s job.” They take care of the day-to-day tasks (often quite well), but fail to work on strategies that will ensure long-term profitabil-ity. They plan the implementation of tasks, but fail to plan

Beef Industry News Featured Article from BEEF Magazine

where to spend dollars and time for best long-term financial results. They typically lack the skills for financial and economic analysis, an understanding of the science, leadership skills or they don’t care to do that kind of work. To be a good manager, you must become a systems thinker.

To find a highly qualified manager today, you will most likely need to find one who is working under the supervision of an excellent manager whose retirement is quite a few years away. Good managers are often trained by good managers and then move to be promoted rather than waiting for their turn at their present employer.

Now I get to the question of what advice would I give a high school graduate who wants to become a successful ranch man-ager? That leads to several follow-up questions: How much money do you want to spend on your education? What level of management do you aspire to? How much time are you willing to take?

Now I am going to get a little critical of our college and universi-ty systems. While doing so, I want my friends at universities to know that I place great value on my own college education and even more education acquired since graduation by staying con-nected to a number of universities and research stations along with their professors and researchers. However, acquiring a degree from the typical university has become very costly and often places a huge burden of debt on young people.

I am also a believer in general education, but can young, pro-spective ranchers afford it when their main objective is to learn how to be competent in a job?

So now I ask this question: What if a high school graduate, knowing that he or she wants a role in farm or ranch manage-ment, went to college in a non-degree seeking mode and got a basic introductory understanding of the following?

Chemistry and biology, which are the foundational scienc-es of all farm and ranch production

Animal nutrition and reproduction Finish reading at:

http://www.beefmagazine.com/management/how-can-we-train-next-generation-ranch-managers

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 314 Morgan Hall • 2621 Morgan Circle

arec.tennessee.edu USDA / Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service http://www.tennessee.gov/agriculture/article/ag-farms-market-news 1-800-342-8206