tennessee education lottery scholarship program annual report tennessee higher education commission...

Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship Program

Annual Report

Tennessee Higher Education Commission


April 28, 2011

2Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Program Overview

3

Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship (TELS) Program

• Merit-based, lottery-funded scholarship program;

• Implemented in 2004;• Program reached maturity in 2008-09; • Mostly for traditional-aged students; • Unique in that it has a need-based

component; and• Awarded a cumulative $1.6 billion to 532,000

students (unduplicated) over time.


4

Total State Grant Aid (Merit plus Need) per Undergraduate FTE at Public and Private

Institutions (2008-09)

Source: National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (NASSGAP)

$1

,916

$1

,712

$1

,362

$1

,120

$1

,089

$1

,041

$9

24

$9

23

$8

55

$6

60

$5

88

$5

69

$4

89

$4

69

$3

23

$1

87

$1

13

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500S

ou

th C

aro

lin

a

Geo

rgia

Ten

nes

see

Wes

t Vir

gin

ia

Ken

tuck

y

Nor

th C

aro

lin

a

Flo

rid

a

Lou

isia

na

SR

EB

AV

ER

AG

E

US

AV

ER

AG

E

Vir

gin

ia

Okla

hom

a

Mary

lan

d

Del

aw

are

Ark

ansa

s

Mis

siss

ippi

Ala

bam

a

State Need Based and Merit Grant Aid per Undergraduate FTE Public and Private Institutions (2007-08)


Tennessee Education Lottery ScholarshipEligibility Criteria, 2010-11

5

HOPE (base) GAMSASPIRE (HOPE

with need supplment)

Access AwardWilder-Naifeh

Technical Skills Grant

Amount (4-yr.) $4,000 $5,000 $5,500 $2,750 N/ A

Amount (2-yr.) $2,000 $3,000 $3,500 $1,750 $2,000

Minimum High School GPA

3.00 3.75 3.00 2.75-2.99 N/ A

Minimum ACT Composite

or 21 and 29 or 21 and 18-20 N/ A

Family Adjusted Gross Income

N/ A N/ A $36,000 or less $36,000 or less N/ A

College Retention GPA

Traditional Path - Cumulative 2.75 at 24 & 48 hours, cumulative 3.0 at 72, 96, 120 hours

Cumulative 2.75 at 24 hours

allows qualification for

HOPE

Satisfactory academic progressProvisional Path - Cumulative 2.75-2.99 at 72, 96,

120 hours with 3.0 prior semester

6

Scholarship Renewal Requirement

2.75

3.00

24 48 72 96

Cu

mula

tive C

olle

ge G

PA

Cumulative Credit Hours (Attempted)

Provisional Track(3.0 Term GPA also

required)



Program Expenditures and Revenue

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000 4

0,1

95

56,0

58

67,0

53

76,2

92

88,3

94

97,0

22

107,9

00

110,4

00

110,5

00

110,6

00

110,6

00

Recip

ien

ts


Scholarship Recipients 2004-05 through 2009-10 (Actual) and 2010-11 through 2014-15(Projected)

8

Projected

Source: TSAC. Projection data as reported to the State Funding Board on April 12, 2011.

2003-0

4

2004-0

5

2005-0

6

2006-0

7

2007-0

8

2008-0

9

2009-1

0

2010-1

1

2011-1

2

2012-1

3

2013-1

4

2014-1

5

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

2

100

167

221

266

295 293313 320 320 320 320

123

231

281 291 290

285 294 297 298 300 301 302

ExpendituresRevenue

Dollars

in

Million

s


TELS Expenditures and Revenue Trends:

2004-05 through 2009-10 (Actual) and 2010-11 through 2014-15(Projected)

9

Projected

Source: Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationNote: Assumes no change in current policy


Net Available Current Revenue of TELS Program: 2003-04 through 2009-10 (Actual) and 2010-11 through 2014-15 (Projected)

2003-0

4

2004-0

5

2005-0

6

2006-0

7

2007-0

8

2008-0

9

2009-1

0

2010-1

1

2011-1

2

2012-1

3

2013-1

4

2014-1

5

-$40

-$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

121

131113

70

24

-9

1.16153907

-15.5-21.5-20.4-19.6-18.3

Bala

nce a

t Ju

ne 3

0

(Dollars

in

Million

s)

10

Projected

Source: Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationNote: Assumes no change in current policy.


Lottery for Education Reserve: 2003-04 through 2009-10 (Actual) and

2010-11 through 2014-15 (Projected) 2003-0

4

2004-0

5

2005-0

6

2006-0

7

2007-0

8

2008-0

9

2009-1

0

2010-1

1

2011-1

2

2012-1

3

2013-1

4

2014-1

5

$0$50

$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450$500

122

255

371

444471

372373357336315296277

Tota

l R

eserv

e a

t Ju

ne 3

0

(Dollars

in

Million

s)

11

Projected

Source: Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationNote: Assumes no change in current policy.


Purchasing Power of Lottery Scholarship


Historical Trend in Base HOPE Maximum Award Amount

2004-0

5

2005-0

6

2006-0

7

2007-0

8

2008-0

9

2009-1

0

2010-1

1

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$3,000$3,300

$3,800$4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000

$1,500 $1,650$1,900 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000

4-year 2-year

Maxim

um

Aw

ard

Am

ou

nt

13Source: TSAC

14

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1150%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

71% 71%

78%77%

72%

67%

63%

68% 69%

77%76%

72%

67%

62%Public 4-yearPublic 2-year

Maxim

um

Aw

ard

Am

ou

nt

as a

% o

f A

vera

ge T

uit

ion

an

d F

ees a

t P

ub

lic I

nsti

-tu

tion

s

Purchasing Power of Lottery Scholarship(HOPE Maximum Award Amount Relative to Tuition and Fees*)

* Unweighted average tuition and fees at public institutions.Source: THEC



Recipient Demographics and Academic Background

74%

21%

5%

All First-time Freshmen


Fall 2010 Freshmen by Race/Ethnicity

Note: Data include public institutions only; First-time freshmen were defined as Tennessee residents age 19 or younger enrolled in Fall 2010 as first-time freshmen. TELS recipients are limited to HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, or Access awardees only.Source: THEC SIS

81%

14%5%

First-time Freshmen on Lottery Scholarship

CaucasianAfrican-AmericanOther

16


2010 Lottery Scholarship Receipt by Family Income

17

$1

2,0

00

or

less

12

,00

1-2

4,0

00

24

,00

1-3

6,0

00

36

,00

1-4

8,0

00

48

,00

1-6

0,0

00

60

,00

1-7

2,0

00

72

,00

1-8

4,0

00

84

,00

1-9

6,0

00

ab

ove

$9

6,0

00

8%11% 11% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7%

28%

8%10% 10%

9% 9% 9% 8% 8%

31%

TELS Freshmen All TELS Recipients

Source: TSAC Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) Data


Percent of Eligible First-time Freshmen Attending on a Lottery Scholarship

Notes: Tennessee resident first-time freshmen who were 19 or younger; public institutions only. HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access awards only.Source: THEC SIS

65 percent of Fall 2010 traditional-age Tennessee resident first-time freshmen in public institutions attended on a lottery scholarship.

TN Public Higher Ed Total UT TBR Universities Community Colleges

63%

91%

79%

38%

65%

91%

78%

39%Fall2009Fall2010

18


Percent of Eligible First-time Freshmen Attending on a Lottery Scholarship by

Institution, Fall 2010

Notes: Tennessee resident first-time freshmen who were 19 or younger; public institutions only. HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access awards only.Source: THEC SIS

UTK

UTC

TTU

MTSU

UTM

ETSU

APSU

UM

Walters

Colu

mbia

Roane

Volu

nte

er

Nort

heast

Cle

vela

nd

Pelli

ssip

pi

Motlow

Jack

son

TSU

Dye

rsburg

Chat-

tanooga

Nash

ville

South

west

96%

91%89%85%

80%79%79%75%

56%51%49%47%45%43%43%42%42%

37%32%31%

21%

12%

19

4-yr public

2-yr public

Academic PreparationQualification Standards Met by Fall 2010 First-Time Freshman

TELS Recipients


Se-ries1

56%

28%

16% Met ACT Standard Only

Met High School GPA Standard Only

Met ACT & GPA Standards

20

This analysis concerned HOPE and ASPIRE recipients only. Only students for whom both ACT and HS GPA were reported were included in this analysis. Both public and private institutions are included in the analysis.

Source: THEC SIS


Scholarship Renewal

22

Renewal Criteria• First 24 and 48 Credit Hour Benchmarks:

Cumulative 2.75 GPA• 72 and thereafter: Cumulative 3.0 GPA • Provisional Track: Cumulative 2.75 GPA and

Term 3.0 GPA (Applicable to students with 72 or above credit hours only)

Scholarship Terminating Events:• 5 years of scholarship; or• Earn a baccalaureate degree(whichever comes first)


23

HOPE GAMS ASPIRE ACCESS TOTAL0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 Fall FTF 2005 Fall FTF 2006 Fall FTF 2007 Fall FTF2008 Fall FTF 2009 Fall FTF

Notes: FTF = first time freshmen; Both public and private institutions are included.Source: THEC SIS

2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Rates by TELS Award Type

2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Ratesby High School Standards Met

Fall 2009 First-Time Freshman TELS Recipients*


This analysis concerned HOPE and ASPIRE recipients in public and private institutions. Only students for whom both ACT and HS GPA were reported were included in this analysis.

Source: THEC SIS

Series1

63%

45%

22%Met ACT Standard OnlyMet High School GPA Standard OnlyMet Both ACT & GPA Standards

24

2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Ratesby Income Level

Fall 2009 First-Time Freshman TELS Recipients


This analysis concerned HOPE and ASPIRE recipients in public and private institutions as these two programs require the same academic standards. Only students for whom income were reported were included in this analysis. Sources: THEC SIS and TSAC FAFSA Data 25

$1

2,0

00

an

d b

elo

w

12

,00

1-2

4,0

00

24

,00

1-3

6,0

00

36

,00

1-4

8,0

00

48

,00

1-6

0,0

00

60

,00

1-7

2,0

00

72

,00

1-8

4,0

00

84

,00

1-9

6,0

00

Ove

r $

96

,00

0

To

tal0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

44% 46%50% 48% 51%

55% 54% 56%60%

55%

Fall 2006 First-time Freshmen Longitudinal Scholarship Renewal Rates

(All Award Types*)


*HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE and Access. Fall 2010 does not reflect students who graduated.

Source: THEC SIS

Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

52%44%

38%

16%

26


Retention and Graduation

College Retention Rates*Fall 2005 Lottery Recipients ** vs. Non Recipients


*Public institutions only; **HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access awards

Source: THEC SIS

Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 60%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% 84%

75%

69%

49%

27%

60%

46%

37%30%

21%

2005 TELS Freshmen 2005 Non TELS Freshmen

28

6-year Graduation Rate for TELS Recipients by Postsecondary Sector


Note: The graduation rates concerned HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access recipients, regardless of whether they lost the scholarship before graduation. Vanderbilt University is excluded from Independent Institutions. Source: THEC SIS

TBR Universi-ties

TBR Com-munity Col-

leges

University of Tennessee

Independent Institutions

Total0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

52%

39%

65% 67%

55%

Fall 2004 Cohort

29

6-year Graduation Rate for TELS Recipients by Scholarship Type


Note: The graduation rates concerned HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access recipients, regardless of whether they lost the scholarship before graduation. Data include TICUA institutions. . Vanderbilt University is excluded from Independent Institutions. Source: THEC SIS

HOPE GAMS ASPIRE ACCESS Total0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

58%

86%

42%

28%

55%

Fall 2004 Cohort

30

Graduation Rate with TELS Intact by Postsecondary Sector


Note: Graduation rate on TELS = # of TELS recipients who received associate’s or bachelor degree with their scholarships intact/TELS first-time freshmen. Vanderbilt University is excluded from Independent Institutions. Source: THEC SIS

TBR Universi-ties

TBR Com-munity Col-

leges

University of Tennessee

Independent Institutions

Total0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

27%

22%

36%39%

30%32%

25%

42%44%

35%

Fall 2004 Cohort Fall 2005 Cohort

31

Graduation Rate with TELS Intact by Scholarship Type


Note: Graduation rate on TELS = # of TELS recipients who received associate’s or bachelor degree with their scholarships intact/TELS first-time freshmen. Includes both public and private institutions.

Source: THEC SIS

HOPE GAMS ASPIRE ACCESS Total0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

31%

71%

21%

8%

30%

36%

74%

27%

5%

35%

Fall 2004 Cohort Fall 2005 Cohort

32


33

Summary of Findings

• Holding current policy constant, annual TELS program expenditures will continuously exceed annual revenues;

• The lottery reserve fund will continue to decline by $16 to $20 million every year;

• The most recent scholarship renewal rate in the second year was 54 percent, almost the same level as the previous year’s renewal rate;

• The 6-year graduation rate for TELS recipients was 54 percent; and

• 35 percent of TELS freshmen graduated with their scholarships intact.

tennessee education lottery scholarship program annual report tennessee higher education commission...

Documents

revenue slide

tsac slide

education reserve

tennessee residents

projected source

current policy slide

academic background

lottery scholarship