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Photochemical Modeling of Louisianafor the 2008 Ozone Standard

Chris EmeryENVIRON International Corporation, Novato CA

November 14, 2012

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Modeling System

• Follows from previous SIP modeling effort– Consistency, familiarity with past LDEQ datasets– Utilize some new state-of-the-science models– Adhere to latest EPA requirements and guidance

• Photochemical Model: CAMx• Meteorological Model: WRF (new)• Louisiana Emissions Processing

– Stationary: EPS3– On-road mobile: CONCEPT/MOVES (new)– Non-road mobile: NONROAD– Biogenic: MEGAN (new)

• Attainment Demonstration: MATS

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Modeling Period

• Model one season (September-October 2010)– EPA guidance is moving away from “episodic” modeling– Local ozone frequency/magnitude peaks in Spring and

Fall• Evaluated statewide 2008-2011 monitoring data

– Tally days exceeding thresholds: 60, 65, 70, 75 ppb– Look for periods with statewide exceedances– Identify appropriate “representative” ozone season

No extremes: 2008 very low, 2011 very high Economic/natural deviations: 2009 hit hardest by recession Availability of national/regional/local datasets

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Site-Days Exceeding 75 ppbStatewide and By Region

Region 2008 2009 2010 2010 (Aug-Oct)

Louisiana 43 68 88 57 Baton Rouge 26 35 39 22 New Orleans 1 10 15 12 Shreveport 3 6 14 11 Lake Charles 2 11 9 6

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2010 Exceedance Analysis

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Modeling Domain

• Move to align with national CONUS domain– Established by Regional Planning Organizations– Used by EPA for many national modeling analyses– TCEQ and other CENSARA states are moving to this

domain– Improves data sharing and consistency

• Three-grid system– 36 km CONUS– 12 km south-central US– 4 km Louisiana

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Louisiana W RF/CAMx Modeling Domains

C AM x36 km : 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to (2592, 1944)12 km : 159 x 141 ( -288, -1584) to (1620, 108) 4 km : 216 x 126 ( 72, -1224) to ( 936, -720)

W R F:36 km : 165 x 129 dot po ints (-2952, -2304) to (2952, 2304)12 km : 172 x 154 dot po ints ( -360, -1656) to (1692, 180)04 km : 229 x 139 dot po ints ( 48, -1248) to ( 960, -696)

C AM x 36 km

C AM x 12km

C AM x 4km

-2880 -2520 -2160 -1800 -1440 -1080 -720 -360 0 360 720 1080 1440 1800 2160 2520 2880

LC P Easting (km )

-2160

-1800

-1440

-1080

-720

-360

0

360

720

1080

1440

1800

2160

LCP

Nor

thin

g (k

m)

W R F 36km

W R F 12 km

W R F 4km

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Meteorological Modeling

• Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)– Developed/maintained by the National Center for

Atmospheric Research (NCAR)– Used by EPA and many states to support AQ modeling

• Run with configuration/options that work best from our recent experience– Modeling performed by Alpine Geophysics

• Model evaluation against observational data– Statistics for winds, temperature, humidity– Quantitatively/graphically evaluate precipitation

• Interface with CAMx (WRFCAMx)

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Anthropogenic Emissions Processing

• LA stationary (EPS3)– 2010 Point sources from LDEQ EIS and hourly ARP/CAMD (ERG)– Parish-level area sources from 2008 NEI – no change to 2010 (ERG)

• LA on-road mobile (CONCEPT)– Parish-level activity data (HPMS), fuels, fleet mix– Vehicle emission factors (MOVES)

• LA non-road mobile (NMIM/NONROAD)– Parish-level EPA default equipment/activity

• LA Other (EPS3)– Gulf-wide shipping and O&G (ERG/BOEM)– Haynesville Shale development (past ENVIRON work for Texas)– Port Fourchon activity (LSU/Starcrest)– LA deep-draft shipping ports/lanes (past ENVIRON work, BOEM)

• US-wide (SMOKE)– Processed by Alpine Geophysics

• Biogenic (MEGAN)• Daily fires (NCAR FINN)

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Model Performance Evaluation

• Evaluate model fidelity for ozone and precursors– Rely on routine AQS and PAMS monitoring– Screening model performance

Basic graphics/statistics evaluating ozone– Refined model performance

Expand to precursors Conduct diagnostic & sensitivity tests (Probing Tools?)

• Identify best model configuration suitable for ozone attainment demonstration– Avoid “tuning” or curve-fitting– Any changes must be justifiable, reviewed, documented

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Future Year Modeling

• 2017 attainment year (Moderate Area)– Substitute 2010 emissions with 2017 projections– Reflects controls and forecasted economic changes– Biogenic emissions remain constant

• Nationally (mobile fleet regs, cross-state rule, MACT)– RPOs & EPA have/developing projections to 2015-2020

• Locally– On/non-road projected per activity forecasts and MOVES/NONROAD– Phase-in any local rules on stationary sources– New facilities, closures/shut-downs– O&G development trends/forecasts

• Sensitivity tests for source attribution and control response

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Ozone Attainment Demonstration

• EPA Model Attainment Test Software (MATS)– Ingest 2010 and 2017 CAMx ozone estimates– Calculate modeled 2017-2010 change as a “relative

response factor” (RRF) Use RRF to project 2010 design values (DV) at each monitor to

2017 2010 DV is 5-year weighted average over 2008-2012

– 2017 DV must be <75 ppb at all sites• If attainment is not demonstrated:

– Perform “weight of evidence” analyses, or – Conduct additional local control scenario simulations

LDEQ to develop packages of potential reductions