temis user workshop, frascati, 8-9 october 2007 temis – vito activities felix deutsch koen de...

TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007

TEMIS – VITO activities

Felix Deutsch

Koen De Ridder

Jean Vankerkom

VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research

Mol, Belgium


Contents

1 Short overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system

2 Results reached in TEMIS

- Improvement of boundary conditions for BelEUROS

- Contribution of LRTAP to air quality in Belgium

3 Possible future contributions to TEMIS


Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system

• EUROS created by RIVM (Netherlands) for modelling of ozone• in Belgium implemented in 2001 for ozone

• in 2004/2005 BelEUROS extended by VITO with two modules for modelling additionally primary and secondary particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5)

• Meteo: ECMWF (T, rH, wv+wd, CC, PR, mixing layer height)

• Emissions: EMEP/CORINAIR; additionally local emission inventories with higher resolution, e.g. for Belgium

• Chemistry: for O3, NOx: Carbon Bond IV (CB-IV) gas phase mechanism, for PM10, PM2.5: CACM + aerosol module MADRID 2

• Resolution: horizontal: 60 km/15 km or 7.5 km; vertical: 4 layers (chemistry), 14 layers: advection



N

Figuur: Basisrooster van 0,55° x 0,55°.



refined grid: resolution 15 km x 15 km (or 7.5 km x 7.5 km)



NOx VOC SO2

• 6 pollutants

• 8 emission sectors

trafficresidential sources

refineries

combustion industry solvents

NH3 PM2.5 PM10-2.5

agriculture

nature


Results reached in TEMIS

• meteorology: 3-D fields of wind speed & direction, temperature, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, mixing height (ECMWF)

• emissions: per pollutant (NOx, VOCs, …) and per sector (traffic, industry, biogenic)

but additionally

• boundary conditions: concentrations of O3, NO2 and all other chemical species at the boundaries of the model domain (up to now climatological values); these lateral boundary values were specified as long-term (monthly) mean concentrations), but no actual concentrations for a certain period

required input data:


Results reached in TEMIS

Methodology for improved boundary conditions for the

BelEUROS-model

• Retrieval of 3-D concentration fields of all chemical species of the CB-IV mechanism from the TM4 model and interpolation to the lateral grid cells of BelEUROS to replace the climatologies


Results: Improved BC

O3 evolution (4 layers) zone 8

20

30

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1/01

/200

5

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1/05

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Co

nc

. [µ

g/m

3 ]

Layer 1Layer 2Layer 3Layer 4

Ozone concentrations at the Western boundary of the BelEUROS domain simulated by TM4



Ozone: Comparison of TM4 BC and BelEUROS climatology

O3 evolution (layers 2 & 3) zone 8 and BelEUROS climatology

40

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1/01

/200

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1/02

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/200

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Co

nc

. [µ

g/m

3 ]

Layer 1Layer 2BelEUROS CLIM



NO2 evolution (layer 2 & 3) zone 8

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1/01

/200

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1/12

/200

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Co

nc

. [µ

g/m

3 ]

Layer 2

Layer 3

NO2 concentrations at the Western boundary of the BelEUROS domain as simulated by TM4



TM4: Episode of transatlantic NO2-transport

NO2 evolution (layer 2 & 3) zone 8

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

15/1

2/05

16/1

2/05

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2/05

Co

nc

. [µ

g/m

3 ]

Layer 2

Layer 3



NO2: Comparison of TM4 BC and BelEUROS climatology

NO2 evolution (layer 2 & 3) zone 8 and BelEUROS climatology

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1/01

/200

5

1/02

/200

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1/03

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1/05

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1/06

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1/09

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1/10

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1/11

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1/12

/200

5

Co

nc

. [µ

g/m

3 ]

Layer 2

Layer 3

BelEUROS CLIM



Ozone 41R012 Ukkel 2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1/04/05 8/04/05 15/04/05 22/04/05 29/04/05 6/05/05 13/05/05 20/05/05 27/05/05

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n [

µg

/m³]

observation

model with climatology BC

model with TM4 BC

Bias: -27,1 % (Clim.); -9,1 % (TM4)



Bias: -44,9 % (Clim.); -24,5 % (TM4)

Ozone 41R012 Ukkel 2005

0

20

40

60

80

1/11/05 8/11/05 15/11/05 22/11/05 29/11/05 6/12/05 13/12/05 20/12/05 27/12/05

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n [

µg

/m³]

observation

model with climatology BC

model with TM4 BC


Results: Contribution of LRTAP

Impact of transatlantic O3 transport on European air quality (O3)

BE: 37 % annual mean contribution



Impact of transatlantic O3 transport on European air quality (NO2)

BE: 6.5 % annual mean contribution; increasing O3 background can lead to non-attainment of EU limit value for NO2 by changing the

NO/NO2-ratio!



Impact of transatlantic NO2 transport on European air quality (NO2)


Results: TEMIS website

Impact of transatlantic NOx transport on European air quality (O3)


Conclusions

1) Nesting of the components of the ozone chemistry of BelEUROS into

TM4 concentration fields resulted in more realistic representation of long range transport of air pollutants in BelEUROS simulations.

2) This improved the model performance, e.g. of ozone simulations in winter/spring/autumn.

3) Calculations showed the high impact of transatlantic O3-transport on annual mean O3- and NO2-concentrations in Europe. Transatlantic NO2-transport can have an impact on NO2-concentrations during episodes.

4) Model performance would certainly benefit from a further improvement of boundary conditions by using Earth Observation data, also for the fine particulate matter species.


• Further improvement of boundary conditions for the BelEUROS model:– nesting of the fine particulate matter version of BelEUROS into

TM4 concentration fields (PM2.5, NH4+, SO4

2-, NO3-)

– using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data for improved boundary conditions, taking LRT of fine particulate matter into consideration

– using tropospheric ozone data for improved boundary conditions and LRT of ozone

Possible future contributions to TEMIS


• Improvement of PM10 forecasts using AOD observations from satellites, especially for taking e.g. Sahara dust, forest fires and biomass burning into consideration

Possible contributions to TEMIS II

Daily forecast of PM10 concentrations for the Belgian Interregional Environment Agency: These forecasts only use local information and suffer from the lack of information on long range transport of PM10


• Detection of upcoming PM clouds:– Combination of forecast model with trajectory model and AOD data

– combine AOD EO data with forecasted back trajectories by e.g. Flextra/Flexpart

– This would permit the detection of upcoming PM clouds

Possible contributions to TEMIS II

temis user workshop, frascati, 8-9 october 2007 temis – vito activities felix deutsch koen de...

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