Tema Vulnerabilidade das Áreas Urbanas

Painel:

Leila da Costa Ferreira,

UNICAMP

RISK AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN

BRAZILIAN COASTAL CITIES

Leila da Costa Ferreira

Rafael D’Almeida Martins

Fabiana Barbi

Leonardo Ribeiro Teixeira

Marília Giesbrecht

Alberto Matenhauer Urbinatti

INTRODUCTION

In a short period of time, climate change has become one of the most pressing issues in the 21st century (Giddens 2009; Hogan 2009a). Since 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations (UN) and by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), has been engaged in understanding the functioning of the global climate system. The greatest scientific advances of this movement came with the most recent reports (Third and Forth Assessment Reports), when expressed relative consensus on global warming by concluding with higher confidence that climate change is unequivocal and the increase in average temperature of the Earth’s surface results from human activities combined with natural variation of the global climate system (IPCC 2007). This fact represents an advance in the debate since previous positions and arguments persisted defending, with some power of public persuasion, that the contemporary global warming had only natural causes mainly resulting from biogeologicalcycles of the planet. According to such positions, for being a natural problem, there would be nothing to do about it apart from accepting it and coping with it (Giddens 2009).

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

COASTAL ZONES

In Brazil, where major cities are located on coastal zones,

the impacts of climate change are an extremely relevant

issue. Coastal areas are considered particularly vulnerable

to climate change (Adger 1999; Nicholls et al. 2007); at the

same time they concentrate an expressive contingent of

world’s population (McGranahan et al. 2007), and are

development centres of the worldwide economy due to their

infrastructure and natural resources (Satterthwaite et al.

2007). In this direction, this article reflects on the

challenges of climate change for these areas, how the issue

could be framed and how local governments in Brazilian

coastal cities in the State of São Paulo (SP) are prepared

(or not) to this risk in terms of policy strategies and

instruments (figure 1).

Coastal cities in the State of São Paulo

Fig.1 – Coastal cities in the State of São Paulo (SP), Brazil

Source: Elaborated by Allan Iwama 2010.

RISK AND CLIMATE CHANGE

It is hard to know the magnitude of these risks and, in many

cases, it is impossible to predict before it is too late, since the

society does not know what other changes will come, or what

dangers they will bring with them. Thus, the challenge posed is

how to establish effective policies to address different problems,

since the future is uncertain and it is not possible to evaluate the

risks with complete accuracy until the anticipated hazards

eventually materialise (Giddens 2009). The required political

action and intervention at the international, national and local

levels will have a decisive effect in setting the boundaries to avoid dangerous global warming and support adaptation efforts

that are increasingly underway (Parry et al. 2008; Parry 2009),

particularly in the developed countries (i.e. Moser 2009 for USA;

Hulme and Neufeldt 2010 for Europe).

CLIMATE CHANGE AND LOCAL

GOVERNMENTS

A summary of some local and state governments’ responsibilities in areas related to

climate change and risk management that need to be components of a comprehensive

adaptation strategy to climate change is presented in Table 1. Usually local

governments are responsible for (Satterthwaite et al. 2007; Satterthwaite 2008):

Finance: financial and accounting management of municipal budget; taxes collection

and management, licenses and fees.

Engineering and public construction: construction and maintenance of the public

space.

Urban/local development: land use regulation, urban zoning, real state registration

and urban planning.

Health and public hygiene: collection, distribution and treatment of drinking water,

pollution control, collection and treatment of solid waste, sanitary hygiene, public

areas cleaning, medical and ambulatory services.

Social urban policies: housing, schools, day-care centres, youth, elderly, etc.

Civil defence and emergency response: disasters relief, fire brigade, ambulance

services and rescue.

Public administration and human resources: various administrative tasks and

responsibilities including human resources management.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZILIAN COASTAL CITIES

THE COAST OF THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO

(SP)

In Brazil, many important cities and infrastructure are

located along more than 8,600 Km of coastline making the

impacts of climate change an extremely relevant issue for

the present and future of these areas (Nicolodi and

Petermann 2010). It is also estimated that more than 20%

of the Brazilian population live on coastal cities (Zamboni

and Nicolodi 2008). In this context, São Paulo - the largest

Brazilian state in terms of population concentration and

economic development – has many of its infrastructures

located on its coastal region. The ports of Santos and São

Sebastião, respectively the biggest port in South America

and the main distribution centre for Brazilian inland oil,

along with the industrial district of Cubatão and the

tourism industry are just some examples of the importance

of this region for the social and economic development of

the country.

THE COAST OF SÃO PAULO STATE

The coast of São Paulo has an extension of about 700 km

comprising 16 cities with over two million inhabitants (see

Table 2) and diversified ecosystems that have the presence

of estuaries, mangroves, sandbanks, caves, rivers, rocky

shores and about 150 islands (SMA 2005). Moreover, it has

several protected areas within its territory as it contains a

great proportion of the Atlantic Forest remnants in the

country, one the three most threatened ecosystems on the

planet and a hotspot for biodiversity. Although there are a

number of measures in place to protect these important

ecosystems, they have been endangered by increasing

tourism activities, modern transportation infrastructures,

oil and gas industry, and illegal exploitation of natural

resources.

DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS AND

EXPRESSIVE INVESTMENTS IN

INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE REGION

In terms of regional and socio-economic aspects, the Northern part of the

coast of the State of São Paulo is currently being targeted by a series of

development interventions and expressive investments in infrastructure,

especially in the area that corresponds to the cities of Caraguatatuba and

São Sebastião. In this sense, it is expected the construction of a number of

new facilities in the coming years including:

a road bypass connecting the cities of São Sebastião and Caraguatatuba;

a regional landfill to minimise the chaotic situation of solid waste in the

region;

a prison facility in Caraguatatuba; and

a natural gas treatment plant (already under advanced stage of

construction).

Expansion of the Port São Sebastião;

Oil and Gas in marine deposits of the Pre-salt (with consequent

adaptation of terrestrial infrastructure).

ROLE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN AREAS

WITH EFFECTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Source: Adapted from Satterthwaite (2008, p. 26).

Local government roleLong term

planning

Prevention of

disasters

Response to

extreme eventsReconstruction

Built environment

Construction Code High n.d. High High

Land use regulation and real estate

registration High Low n.d. High

Maintenance and construction of

building and public space High Low n.d. High

Urban Planning and Zoning High n.d High High

Infrastructure

Water treatment High Low High High

Wastewater treatment High Low High High

Drainage system High Low High High

Streets, avenues, bridges High n.d. High High

Electricity High Low High High

Landfill High Low n.d. High

Services

Protection against fire High Low High Low

Public order, police Average High High Low

Solid waste collection High High High High

Education Average Average n.d. n.d.

Health and public hygiene Average Average High High

Public Transportation Average High High High

Social welfare Average High High High

Responses to disasters and civil

defense n.d. n.d. High High

CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZILIAN

COASTAL CITIES

Table 2 – Population of the Coastal Cities of São Paulo

Source: IBGE 2009.

City Population

Cananéia 13 562

Iguape 29 321

Ilha Comprida 9 536

Cubatão 124 284

Guarujá 312 504

Itanhaém 91 788

Mongaguá 45 376

Peruíbe 55 743

Praia Grande 249 266

Santos 432 213

São Vicente 331 581

Bertioga 44 341

Caraguatatuba 91 397

Ilhabela 27 690

São Sebastião 71 290

Ubatuba 84 137

Total 2 014 029

POLITICAL-INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES

Strategies at the Federal Level

One of the first movements at the federal level related to climate

change was the creation of the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change -

FBMC in June 2000. Its objective is to introduce, educate and

mobilize society for the discussion and position on issues relating to

global warming. Seven years later, in November 2007, the federal

government created the Interministerial Committee on Climate

Change (MIC) with the main tasks of designing and implementing a

National Policy on Climate Change - National Climate Change Plan

and National Plan on Climate Change. The Plan was launched in late

2008 indicating the objectives, principles, guidelines and instruments

for the enactment of Law 12.187 in 2009, which provides for a

National Policy on Climate Change. In general, the national planning

emphasizes the small contribution of Brazil to the generation of

global environmental problem compared to other emerging and

developed economies, and indicates that the country has done its

part in mitigation, but is willing to do more (CIM 2008) .

STRATEGIES AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL

To achieve the objectives of this policy and taking advantage of the

international spotlight, Brazil presented at the 15th UN Conference on

Climate Change (COP15) in Copenhagen, national voluntary commitment

to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases between 38 and 36.1%, 9% of

their total projected emissions by 2020 (BRAZIL 2009).

Between the creation and promulgation of the FBMC PNMC other public

events, research institutions and civil society organizations were

established at the federal level. Among them, the introduction of Network-

CLIMATE, the creation of the National Institute of Science and

Technology (INCT) Climate Change, developing the network of civil

society organizations called "Climate Observatory”; the launch of the

FAPESP Research on Global Climate Change and the creation of the

Brazilian Panel on Climate Change - PBMC.

STRATEGIES AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL

According to the Second Brazilian Inventory of

Anthropogenic (MCT 2010) Brazil has been

increasing its emissions of GHGs at rates very

significant in the last fifteen years. Between the

years 1990 and 2005 the CO ² emissions

increased by approximately 65% of the sum of all

the sectors surveyed, only emissions related to

coal mining declined by 29%.

The sector of Change of Land Use and Forests

was responsible for the largest share of CO2

emissions in 2005 with participation of 77% of

total emissions. During the period analyzed

(1990-2005) emissions from this sector grew

64.3%.

POLITICAL-INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES

Regional level strategies

In Brazil, the city of São Paulo was a pioneer in approving a

specific law to deal with climate change. The municipal law (n.

14933) was approved in 2009 and establishes the reduction of 30%

in total GHG emissions of the city. It enforces public

transportation priority, gradual reduction in fossil fuel

consumption and dependence, compulsory recycling program and

reduction of solid waste altogether with energy efficiency criteria

combined with eco-building.

Some months after this approval, the São Paulo State also

approved its own law becoming the second Brazilian state to

approve such type of regulation (the first one was the State of

Amazonas in 2007), which also presents tangible mitigation

targets. The so-called State Climate Change Policy expects a

reduction of at least 20% in total CO2 emissions by 2020 in

relation to the 2005 level. Every five years, until 2020, the

government will be able to set intermediate targets to reach the

20% goal.

Regional level strategies

To achieve the objectives of this policy and taking advantage of

the international spotlight, Brazil presented at the 15th UN

Conference on Climate Change (COP15) in Copenhagen, national

voluntary commitment to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases

between 38 and 36.1%, 9% of their total projected emissions by

2020 (BRAZIL 2009).

Between the creation and promulgation of the FBMC PNMC

other public events, research institutions and civil society

organizations were established at the federal level. Among them,

the introduction of Network-CLIMATE, the creation of the

National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) Climate

Change, developing the network of civil society organizations

called "Climate Observatory”; the launch of the FAPESP

Research on Global Climate Change and the creation of the

Brazilian Panel on Climate Change - PBMC.

POLITICAL-INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES

In spite of being considered substantial advances to

address the climate change problem, these laws rely on a

network of political-institutional structures and governance

arrangements in order to be effectively applied (see Table

1). Thus, it is fundamental to investigate the presence of

some of these structures in the 16 coastal cities of the São

Paulo State as inherent part of our research agenda as

these cities do not present any clear climate change

response in terms of specific laws or policies as in the case

of the city and the state of São Paulo. Hence, in order to

assess the institutional and administrative capacity of

these coastal cities to internalise the climate change issue,

a mapping exercise was carried out aiming at finding the

presence of governmental bodies and institutions

interlinked with sectors and policies with some level of

effect and jurisdiction to address climate change.

LOCAL POLITICAL-INSTITUTIONAL

STRUCTURE

Our mapping exercise focused on the executive

and the legislative municipal bodies as well as on

the presence of secretariats, departments, other

public agencies, and City Council commissions

that have some history and capability in dealing

with areas that can affect or be affected by

climate change. As these coastal cities do not

have particular institutions to respond to climate

change so far, the idea of looking at the

municipal realities was used as a strategy to

frame the climate change issue within the

current administrative structures.

LOCAL POLITICAL-INSTITUTIONAL

STRUCTURE

Table 3 shows that a great part of the

investigated cities presents political-institutional

structures that could be mobilised to address the

climate change issue, especially in terms of

specific secretariats, governmental agencies and

departments. Our survey highlights the presence

of structures dedicated to social, economic and

urban development policies, besides environment

and health.

TABLE 3 – POLITICAL-INSTITUTIONAL

STRUCTURE IN COASTAL CITIES OF THE

STATE OF SÃO PAULOArea of action* List of Cities Number of Cities

Economic Development:

Secretariats; Authorities

(Agriculture; Fishery; Industry; Commerce;

Science; Technology)

Cananéia, Caraguatatuba, Cubatão, Guarujá, Ilha

Comprida, Itanhaém, Mongaguá, Peruíbe,

Santos, São Sebastião, São Vicente, Ubatuba.

12

Social Development:

Secretariats; Authorities (Social Action; Social

Promotion; Social Assistance; Citizenship)

Bertioga, Cananéia, Caraguatatuba, Cubatão,

Guarujá, Ilhabela, Ilha Comprida, Itanhaém,

Mongaguá, Peruíbe, Praia Grande, Santos, São

Vicente, Ubatuba.

14

Urban Development:

Secretariats; Authorities (Housing; Public

Construction; Public Services; Infrastructure)

Bertioga, Cananéia, Caraguatatuba, Cubatão,

Guarujá, Iguape, Ilhabela, Ilha Comprida,

Itanhaém, Mongaguá, Peruíbe, Praia Grande,

Santos, São Vicente, São Sebastião, Ubatuba.

16

Environment:

Secretariats; Authorities

Bertioga, Cananéia, Caraguatatuba, Cubatão,

Guarujá, Iguape, Ilha Bela, Itanhaém, Mongaguá,

Peruíbe, Praia Grande, Santos, São Sebastião,

São Vicente, Ubatuba.

15

Planning (Management):

Secretariats; Authorities

Caraguatatuba, Cubatão, Guarujá, Ilha

Comprida, Itanhaém, Mongaguá, Peruíbe,

Santos, São Vicente, Ubatuba.

10

Health:

Secretariats; Authorities

Bertioga, Cananéia, Caraguatatuba, Cubatão,

Guarujá, Iguape, Ilha Bela, Ilha Comprida,

Itanhaém, Mongaguá, Peruíbe, Praia Grande,

Santos, São Sebastião, São Vicente, Ubatuba.

16

Security:

Secretariats; Authorities; Directories

(Public Security; Urban Security; Social Defense;

Civil Defense)

Caraguatatuba, Guarujá, Itanhaém, Mongaguá,

Peruíbe, Santos, São Sebastião, São Vicente,

Ubatuba.

9

Transport:

Secretariats; AuthoritiesCaraguatatuba, Iguape, Itanhaém, Mongaguá,

São Vicente.5

LOCAL STRATEGIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Even though science is advancing to provide increasingly

reliable data, methodologies, tools and frameworks to help

society to cope and adapt to the impacts of climate change

and variability, these local governments located on the

coast of the São Paulo State are still struggling to provide

the most basic urban services for a proportion of their

dwellers in terms of adequate housing, sanitation and

health care. The lack of financial and human resources

combined with the high level of uncertainty in regards to

climate change impacts (Beck 1992, 2009; Giddens 2009)

and the need for climate change scientific data at local level

also contribute to the lack of consistent action towards

climate change risks in this region.

ENVIRONMENTAL LEGISLATION IN THE COASTAL

CITIES OF THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO

Cities Municipal

Organic

Law

Land Use

Planning

Environm

ent Code

Urban

Developm

ent

Planning

Regional

Ecological

-Economic

Zoning

Conservatio

n Units Acts

Others

Bertioga X X

Cananéia X

Cubatão X

Guarujá X X

Ilha Comprida X

Itanhaém X X X

Peruíbe X

Praia Grande X X X

Santos X X X X

São Vicente X X

São Sebastião X

Ubatuba X

Source: The authors.

FINAL COMMENTS

According to the discussion of risk theory in Beck (1992, 2009),

the risks brought by climate change are characterized by escaping

the perception, situated in the sphere of physical and chemical

formulas, remaining invisible. They can be changed, magnified,

dramatized or minimized within knowledge and accordingly, are

open to social definition and construction. Also, these risks are

closely related to the future and to the misfortunes actively

assessed in relation to future possibilities.

In this scenario, political action and intervention at international,

national and local levels will have a decisive effect on establishing

limits to global warming and on adapting to what is already in

progress (Giddens 2009). International agreements are essential,

and other agencies, including NGOs and the private sector also

have a key role; however, the state has many powers that have to

be raised, if more serious impacts involving global warming occur,

as discussed in section 3.

FINAL COMMENTS

In terms of climate change policies, the debate in Brazil is

still in its early stages and there are a number of issues to

be worked in the coming years. Despite being a new subject

in the political arena, there are legislations that have been

approved since 2007 at the national, state and municipal

level that aim at mitigating GHG emissions and

coordinating adaptation efforts combined with risk

management and disaster risk reduction, as presented in

section 4.

It was also discussed the fact that local governments are

considered critical actors to address many of the causes and

consequences arising from climate change as they are close

to wherein these activities and events take place,

considering areas such as built environment, infrastructure

and services, as shown in Table 1, which have direct and

indirect effects on climate change.

FINAL COMMENTS

This papers reflects the attempt to investigate some of the political-

institutional structures that have some effect on relevant areas for intervention

in terms of climate change at the local level in the 16 coastal cities of the São

Paulo State. Such analysis (Tables 3 and 4) shows that these cities present

secretariats, departments, directories and other types of governmental bodies

as well as environmental legislation that will have to be mobilised in climate

change actions.

We have argued that the existing structures and the alternatives that have

being proposed up until now by these institutions are far from sufficient to

respond effectively to the magnitude and complexity of the problem. If we

consider that we are debating and deciding on the future - even though the

future has been made present - and the quality of the life in the planet, not

only for humans but also for diverse ecosystems depend on actions and

measures taken now then the socio-environmental (in)justice that devastates

millions raises ethical dilemmas. Emerging from this debate there are

reasonable arguments to defend the engagement in collective and political

dialogues, negotiation and proposals that could enhance the response capacity

to the challenges are posed so that these responses would not be palliative

responses that go towards the social and economic maintenance of the status

quo, the political interests and unsustainable patterns of human development.

THE ISSUE OF INTEGRATION BETWEEN

THE PLANNING FEDERAL, STATE AND

LOCAL

The issue of integration between the planning Federal,

State and Local also deserves attention. Few instruments

such as the Economic-Ecological Zoning possess the ability

to interfere in municipal planning. The other tools are

rarely incorporated into local plans.

It was also discussed the fact that local governments not

only in Brazil but also elsewhere are considered critical

actors to address many of the causes and consequences

arising from climate change as they are close to wherein

these activities and events take place, considering areas

such as the built environment, infrastructure and public

services, which have direct and indirect effects on climate

change (as shown in Table 1).

OBRIGADA!