telecommunications deployment strategy · the business sector,and the community at large to meet...

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Chapter Page

Exhibits List 4

Introduction 5

1. Telecommunications Background Overview and Issues Identification 6

2. Status of Telecommunications in Southern California 22

3. Trip Making Impacts of Telecommunications 26

4. Issues Summary 30

5. Strategy for theSouthern California Region 31

6. Strategy Assumptions 32

7. Description of the Strategy 35

8. 2020 Vision of the Strategy in Operation 48

9. Benefits of the Strategy 49

10 Work Plan for Strategy Implementation 50

11. Financial Plan: Cost Elements 54

12. Modeling Telecommunicationseffects on Transportation 55

13. Telecommunications andthe Economy 58

Conclusion 62

References and Notes 63

Glossary 65

Appendices 66

Appendix A 67

Appendix B 160

Appendix C 173

• Newsletters 185

TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT JULY, 19962

Table of Contents

To enhance the quality of life of allSouthern Californians by working in partnership with all levels of government,the business sector, and the communityat large to meet regional challenges andto resolve regional differences.

OFFICERS:Mayor Pro Tem Dick Kelly, Palm Desert

Supervisor Yvonne Brathwaite Burke,

Los Angeles County

Mayor, Bob Bartlett, City of Monrovia

Supervisor, Bob Buster, Riverside County

Sam Sharp, Imperial County ¥ David Dhillon, El Centro

Yvonne Brathwaite Burke, Los Angeles County

¥ Richard Alarcon, Los Angeles ¥ Richard Alatorre, Los Angeles ¥ Eileen

Ansari, Diamond Bar ¥ Bob Bartlett, Monrovia ¥ George Bass, Bell

¥ Sue Bauer, Glendora ¥ Hal Bernson, Los Angeles ¥ Marvin Braude, Los

Angeles ¥ Robert Bruesch, Rosemead ¥ Laura Chick, Los Angeles ¥ John

Crawley, Cerritos ¥ Joe Dawidziak, Redondo Beach ¥ Doug Drummond,

Long Beach ¥ John Ferraro, Los Angeles ¥ Michael Feuer, Los Angeles ¥

Karyn Foley, Calabasas ¥ Ruth Galanter, Los Angeles ¥ Eileen Givens,

Glendale ¥ Jackie Goldberg, Los Angeles ¥ Garland Hardeman, Inglewood

¥ Mike Hernandez, Los Angeles ¥ Nate Holden, Los Angeles ¥ Abbe Land,

West Hollywood ¥ Barbara Messina, Alhambra ¥ David Myers, Palmdale

¥ George Nakano, Torrance ¥ Jenny Oropeza, Long Beach ¥ Beatrice Proo,

Pico Rivera ¥ Mark Ridley-Thomas, Los Angeles ¥ Richard Riordan,

Los Angeles ¥ Albert Robles, South Gate ¥ Marcine Shaw, Compton

¥ Ray Smith, Bellflower ¥ Rudy Svorinich, Los Angeles ¥ Joel Wachs,

Los Angeles ¥ Rita Walters, Los Angeles ¥ Judy Wright, Claremont

¥ Paul Zee, South Pasadena

Marian Bergeson, Orange County ¥ Ron Bates, Los

Alamitos ¥ Art Brown, Buena Park ¥ Jan Debay, Newport Beach ¥ Richard

Dixon, Lake Forest ¥ Sandra Genis, Costa Mesa ¥ Candace Haggard,

San Clemente ¥ Bev Perry, Brea ¥ Wally Linn, La Palma

Bob Buster, Riverside County ¥ Dennis Draeger,

Calimesa ¥ Dick Kelly, Palm Desert ¥ Ron Loveridge, Riverside ¥ Ron

Roberts, Temecula

Larry Walker, San Bernardino County

¥ Jim Bagley, Twentynine Palms ¥ Deirdre Bennett, Colton ¥ David

Eshleman, Fontana ¥ Tom Minor, San Bernardino ¥ Gwenn Norton-Perry,

Chino Hills ¥ Robert Nolan, Upland

Judy Mikels, Ventura County ¥ Andrew Fox, T h o u s a n d

Oaks ¥ Stan Daily, Camarillo ¥ John Melton, Santa Pa u l a

Southern California Association of Governments

Mission StatementRegional Council Members

Funding: The Preparation of this report was financed in part through grants from the UnitedStates Department of TransportationÑFederal Highway Administration and the FederalTransit AdministrationÑunder provisions of the Intermodal Surface TransportationEfficiency Act 1991. Additional financial assistance was pr ovided by the California StateDepartment of Transportation.

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Southern California Association of Gove r n m e n t s4

Exhibits List

Exhibit 1 Comparison of Baseline to Plan in the Southern California Regional Transportation Plan of 1994 6

Exhibit 2 Board of Directors of the Southern California Economic Partnership 8

Exhibit 3 Organization Chart of the Southern California Economic Partnership. 9

Exhibit 4 Charter Members of the Telecommuting Cluster Advisory Group of the Southern California Economic Partnership 10

Exhibit 5 Growing Number of Transistors in each Microcomputer Chip 11

Exhibit 6 Typical Data Communications Speeds Available for Homes and Small Business 11

Exhibit 7 Inventory of Telecommunications Products and Services 12

Exhibit 8 Layers of Telecommunications 13

Exhibit 9 Trade Press Quotations Illustrating High Level of Obscure Jargon 16

Exhibit 10 Linking Trip Purposes to Telecommunication Deployment 18

Exhibit 11 Generic Telecommunications Applications with Travel Impacts, Categorized byApplications Area or Travel Purpose 19

Exhibit 12 Examples of existing telecommunications applications in Southern California 22

Exhibit 13 Non-profit and government organizations in the Southern California region that applied for federal funding support of telecommunications development in 1995 24

Exhibit 14 The five Southern California winners in the 1995 grant competition from the U.S. Department ofCommerce, National Telecommunications and Information Administration TelecommunicationsInformation Infrastructure Assistance Program. 25

Exhibit 15 Sharp Focus Needed for Travel Savings from Telecommunications 32

Exhibit 16 The Telecommunications Cluster Adds a Second Loop to the Cycle of Value Creation 36

Exhibit 17 Process Flow of Telecommunications Application Development and Deployment, and Knowledge Base Categories 37

Exhibit 18: Format of telecommunications application case studies in the Telecommunications Cluster Knowledge Base 42

Exhibit 19 Telecommunications Cluster Knowledge Base has Many Facets 43

Exhibit 20 Draft Analysis Tool for Determining Best Oppor tunity Targets for Telecommunications Cluster Action 44

Exhibit 21 Telecommunications Deployment Strategy 47

Exhibit 22 Public-Private Process to Accelerate Telecommunications Deployment 53

TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT JULY, 1996 5

Introduction

Angeles County, is described in Appendix A. Inaddition, this Appendix A includes some of theproducts of the Outreach Program such as thenews letters, and Chapter One of theTelecommuting - A Formula for Business Successmanual. The other two Appendices describe infor-mation related to the TDS.

This document describes a strategy for accelerat-ing the deployment and use of telecommunica-tions in the six Counties and 184 cities of theSouthern California Region. Telecommunicationsmeans electro-optical communication of voices,graphics, data, or video over a distance. Thecounties are Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange,Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura.

One might ask, isn't telecommunications (includ-ing telephones, cellular, faxing, video conferenc-ing, computer networks, and cable TV services)advancing quite fast enough? The answer is "yes"if we are talking about all telecommunications.The answer is "no" if we are talking about theparticular characteristic of telecommunicationsthat motivates this plan: communicating over adistance can sometimes provide people and orga-nizations with alternatives to vehicle travel, thusreducing the number of vehicle trips and theirassociated exhaust emissions and traffic conges-tion. This strategy provides a process for isolatingand emphasizing those telecommunicationsapplications — as well as the technological, orga-nizational, economic, and human factors thatinfluence applications — that can lead to moretrip substitution, shifting of travel out of peakperiods, and other positive impacts that willimprove air quality.

In addition, there are other economic benefits toaccelerating telecommunications deployment,benefits such as creation of more new jobs, andincreasing the ability of Southern Californians toprosper in an increasingly competitive worldeconomy.

How to Read This Document:

1- The Strategy:

The Southern California telecommunicationsDeployment Strategy (TDS) is described in detailin the main body of the document, which is onthis CD-ROM; and in brief in the ExecutiveSummary.

2- The Appendices:

Along with the development of this strategy, aTelecommuting Outreach Program, designed bythe Los Angeles County MetropolitanTransportation Authority (LACMTA) for Los

Southern California Association of Governments6

1. Telecommunications Background Overview & Issues Identification

This document was prepared by consultantsworking under the direction of the SouthernCalifornia Association of Governments, in supportof the Southern California Economic Partnership.The consultant team from Ellen Williams andAssociates, Inc. also benefited from review andadvice from the Telecommunications ClusterAdvisory Group of private and public sector man-agers, described below. The work that went intothis document was partially funded by a contractbetween the Association and the State ofCalifornia Department of Transportation.

The Association of Governments is a council of184 city governments and six county governmentsserving 15 million people in 38,000 square milesof Southern California. It is the means by whichlocal governments work in concert to solve prob-lems that transcend political boundaries, such asmobility, access, air quality, and economic vitality.Under Federal law, Association of Governmentshas the assignment of planning the improvementsto the regional system of transportation so thatthe system works to move people and goods effi-ciently, while at the same time complying with the

Federal Clean Air Act. The Association fulfills thisplanning responsibility with the creation of aRegional Transportation Plan, reviewed andupdated every three years. All road, highway, andrail construction projects fall under this plan, aswell as other measures, such as expanding publictransportation, new traffic signal control systems,and promotion of alternatives to traveling. Untilthis plan was begun, the only application oftelecommunications that was considered in theRegional Transportation Plan is telecommuting,which means using the telephone, computer net-works, and other telecommunications to work athome instead of commuting.

The latest version of the Regional TransportationPlan, issued in June 1994, paints a picture ofgrowing traffic congestion: "Transportationdemands continue to increase rapidly in SouthernCalifornia as a result of both population growthand changes in travel patterns. Given the financialrestrictions and environmental concerns, itappears unlikely that this demand can be accom-modated without dramatic changes in travelbehavior."1

Exhibit 1 illustrates these points by showing thelatest forecast for average daily vehicle trips inSouthern California for the years ahead, out to

Background

000 trips

55,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

50,000

45,000

35,000

40,000

Baseline Regional Plan

Exhibit 1: Baseline and Plan for Daily Vehicle Trips in Six Counties of Southern California


the year 2015. Note that the starting point for thegrowth shown is the 1990 average level of trips inthe region: 35,416,000 trips per day! The solidline represents a forecast that assumes that thereare no extraordinary public policy initiatives toreduce trip-making in the years ahead. The dottedline represents a forecast for a reduced amount ofvehicle trips to result if the RegionalTransportation Plan of new diamond lanes (HOV),more use of transit, road pricing, some moretelecommuting, and other innovations is followed.The relatively small difference between the solidbaseline and the dotted plan line -- about twopercent in the year 2015 -- motivated theAssociation of Governments to seek additionaluseful steps to take, including the addition ofAdvanced Transportation Technologies to theRegional Transportation Plan, one of which istelecommunications.

As a partial response to the growing demand forvehicle travel which is causal to the severity of airpollution (the worst in the nation), as well as theincrease in congestion in the Southern Californiaregion; the Southern California EconomicPartnership was formed (The Partnership) by theAssociation of Governments as part of the 1994Regional Transportation Plan. The Partnership is abusiness-government non-profit organizationformed to accelerate the consumer use of fiveadvanced transportation technologies: electricvehicles, alternative fuel vehicles, smart shuttletransit, intelligent transportation systems, andtelecommunications. The Partnership's mission isto be a market development facilitator, helpingthe private sector to create a mass consumer mar-ket for technology based products that alleviateair pollution and traffic congestion, and producelocal job growth and productivity improvement aswell. The Partnership Board is composed of 26members who are executives of private and public organizations which work on one or moreof the five advanced transportation technologyareas. Exhibit 2 shows the members of this Board, and Exhibit 3 provides the organizationalstructure of the Partnership.

The portion of the activity of the EconomicPartnership that is directed toward telecommuni-cations is called the Telecommunications Cluster,which operates in parallel with the Electric Vehicle

Cluster, the Smart Shuttle Cluster, and the others.The Cluster is to do its work through a small staffof employees and contractors, plus a number ofvolunteer stakeholders from the private and pub-lic sectors whose organizations find participationto be useful to their mission. Note that the orga-nizational mission in the case of government par-ticipants is some component of the public inter-est, while in the case of business organizationsthe mission is business related -- sales, servingcustomers, growth, shareholder value, profit, andso on.

This plan as well as the ongoing work of theTelecommunications Cluster is informed by expertinput from an Advisory Group of telecommunica-tions providers and government officials. Exhibit4 shows the charter members of the AdvisoryGroup, which met six times in the period July,1995 through January, 1996. This Advisory Groupis scheduled to meet bimonthly starting in Marchof 1996. The membership of the Advisory Group islikely to change under the direction ofPartnership management.

The Advisory Group and its meetings are animportant part of the Cluster, but Cluster activityunder this plan expands beyond the AdvisoryGroup. A variety of future research and develop-ment projects that will be generated by this plancarried out by Partnership staff, Association staff,and contractors would also be part of the Cluster.Furthermore, in a way similar to the Smart Valleyeffort based in the Silicon Valley area of NorthernCalifornia (see Appendix C), Cluster top manage-ment with the advice of the Advisory Group maychoose to endorse and promote a number ofongoing telecommunications infrastructureupgrades or applications development projectstaking place in the Southern California region.These projects could then be said to be "part of"the Telecommunications Cluster.

The California Department of Transportation(Caltrans) has a vision that Southern Californiadriving can be improved considerably over thenext ten years as a result of using advanced tech-nologies. This agency sometimes refers to the useof telecommunications for trip substitution astelesubstitution. As one response to the chal-lenge of rising travel demand and limited funds


Board of Directors

Lloyd ArmstrongProvostUniversity of Southern California

Jim R. Browder ChairmanCaliformia Consortium ofTransportation Research & Development

Vikram S. BudhrajaVice President of Planning & Technology, Southern California Edison

Malcom CurrieChairman Emeritus

Michael DalyDirector of the ATTI DeptmentCollege of the Desert

Tom DeckerExecutive Vice President Bank of America

Lynne EdgertonBoard of DirectorsCalifornia Air Resources Board

Michael GagePresidentCalstart

Gary HuntSenior Vice PresidentThe Irvine Company

Charles ImbrechtChairmanCalifornia Energy Commission

Ruben JaureguiPrincipalVargas and Company

Don LarsonChairman of the BoardInland Empire Economic Partnership

Jim LentsExecutive Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District

Marilyn MortonPublic Affairs Manager-ConstructionLos Angeles Co. Metropolitan Transit Authority

George PeapplesVice President of Government RelationsGeneral Motors Corporation

Mark PisanoExecutive Director Southern California Association of Governments

Cheri RameyPresidentRamey Communicatios

Jack ReagenExecutive Director Riverside County TransportationCommission

Norm Ross-Vice ChairmanVice President and Area Manager Parsons Brinkerhoff

William RusnackPresidentARCO Products Company

Tom Sayles-ChairmanVice President of Public Affairs Southern California Gas Company

Gene Sherman Vice President of External Affairs Pacific Bell

John N. StearnsDirector Project California

Ken SteeleDistrict DirectorCaltrans-District 7

Jim WoodSecretary-TreasurerLos Angeles County Federation of Labor

Dennis ZaneExecutive DirectorCoalition for Clean Air

Boardmember

Staff/Representatives

Lee WallaceExternal Affairs ManagerSouthern California Gas Company

Minnie Lopez BaffoPublic Affairs CoordinatorThe Gas Company

John WeberTransportation Segment General ManagerThe Gas Company

Raymond ButtacavolliRegional ManagerGeneral Motors Corporation

A. J. DonnerExecutive Director, Public AffairsPacific Telesis Group

Zahi FaraneshChief, Regional TransportationPlanningCaltrans District 7

Jim OrtnerManager Air Quality ProgramOrange County TransportationAuthority

Partnership Staff

John J. CoxPresidentSouthern California EconomicPartnership

Grizelda D. Reed Associate Administrative OfficerSouthern California EconomicPartnership

Marnie TendenMarketing DirectorSouthern California EconomicPartnership

Jennifer KempCommunications ManagerSouthern California EconomicPartnership

Melissa GislerMarketing Research ManagerSouthern California EconomicPartnership

Exhibit 2: Southern California Economic Partnership


for the construction of new roads and highways,public policy of the State of California is to workon increasing the use of telecommunications inorder to move information instead of people andgoods. Caltrans promotes the notion thattelecommunications is a "mode of transporta-tion" that moves information and services insteadof people and goods. Caltrans is coordinating itsown statewide telecommunications program withthe Association and the Partnership, and has pro-vided funding for the creation of this plan.

Other "telecommunications mobility projects"funded by Caltrans around the State of Californiainclude neighborhood telecenters, a communitynetwork serving Davis (see Appendix B), the BlueLine Televillage at the Compton transit center inLos Angeles, and a Smart Communities planningeffort in San Diego County (see Appendix B & C).These projects are intended to provide research

findings on the demand for telecommunicationsas a mobility mode, demonstrate the value of thetelecommunications mode as a component of afull transportation system, and solve problems inpartnership with the private sector and units oflocal government.

Another organization that is working on telesub-stitution is the Southern CaliforniaTelecommuting Partnership, founded by a grantfrom the Department of Energy, as part of theresponse to the January 17, 1994 Northridgeearthquake, which closed major arterials for aperiod of time. This Partnership (distinct from theEconomic Partnership described above) is a vol-untary confederation of public, non-profit, andprivate entities which have joined together tofacilitate the growth of telecommuting. As of early1996, because of a needs assessment carried outin 1994-5, the Telecommuting Partnership is

Board ofDirectors

TelecommunicationsCluster

Electric VehicleCluster

Alternate Fuel Vehicle

Cluster

Smart Shuttle Cluster

IVHSCluster

School ActivityCenterCluster

BusinessCenterCluster

ShoppingCenterCluster

Special EventCenterCluster

Airport-TransitCenterCluster

financialAdvisorCluster

MarketingCommunications

Cluster

Clean Cities

Cluster

EcomonicProject

ClearinghouseCluster

Select Industry and Government Cluster Partnerships

Market Development

Function

Support-EnablingFunction

Activity Center Use

Exhibit 3: Organizational Structure of the Partnership


engaged in developing a training and marketingprogram to expand telecommuting in theSouthern California region.

Telecommuting is already the most familiar trip-saving application of telecommunications. It isimportant because the single largest identifiabletrip purpose is the daily journey to work.However, this present plan needs to go beyondtelecommuting, because the journey to work isonly 21 percent of trips in Southern California.

This document describes the Southern CaliforniaTelecommunications Deployment Strategy (TDS).This Strategy is intended to provide a frameworkfor the activities of the staff and stakeholderswhose work comprises the TelecommunicationsCluster of the Southern California EconomicPartnership. Staff includes paid professionals atthe Partnership and at the Southern CaliforniaAssociation of Governments. Stakeholdersinclude members of the TelecommunicationsCluster Advisory Group and other professionalsfrom business and government organizationsworking on telecommunications. These people

will be authorized by their organizations to partic-ipate in working groups and task teams thatimplement Partnership initiatives.

All of this work on telecommunications deploy-ment for improved mobility and access is alsointended by the founders of the SouthernCalifornia Economic Partnership to promote thegrowth and development of the SouthernCalifornia economy. There is in fact little doubtthat telecommunications deployment of any andall kinds in a market-driven framework provideseconomic benefits, including the expansion andcreation of new enterprises, and the creation ofnew jobs. At the same time telecommunicationsalong with computers and other information tech-nologies promotes restructuring of the economyand some "creative destruction" of enterprisesand jobs as new technologies and processesreplace older ones that are less efficient andeffective. The effect of telecommunications on theeconomy is discussed in a later section.

The point to be made here is that economic bene-fit from telecommunications deployment is rela-

Exhibit 4: Charter Members of the Telecommunications Cluster Advisory Group of the SouthernCalifornia Economic Partnership - Established July 1995

Bill Allin District Manager, AT&T, San Francisco

Sky Dayton President and CEO, Earthlink Network Inc., Los Angeles

Dilara El-Assaad Project Manager, Southern California Association of Governments

Donald Girskis General Manager, Nextel Communications, Orange

Evelyn Gutierrez Chief, Office of Special Programs, Chief Administrative Office, Los Angeles County

Chuck Haas INTEL, Santa Clara

Jim Hake Principal, Access Media, Santa Monica

Jorge Jackson Vice President, GTE Telephone Operations, Thousand Oaks

Kimberly Karambelas Vice President, Pacific Lightwave, Riverside

Dr. Douglas Martin ADA Coordinator, ADA Compliance Office, UCLA, Los Angeles

Larry McElroy Director of Business Development, Performigence, Los Angeles

Perry Parks President, Southern California Cable Association

Hon. Robert Pinzler Councilmember, Redondo Beach City Council, Redondo Beach

Gene Sherman Vice President, Pacific Telesis, Los Angeles

Kathy Wasikowski Director of Transportation Programs, Southern California Air Quality


tively easy to achieve; it comes almost naturallyas a matter of course. Mobility benefits, on theother hand, are harder to achieve. [5]. A narrowerrange of activities in telecommunications deploy-ment promotes mobility enhancement than pro-motes economic development generally. That isthe reason for the dominant and recurring focuson travel related issues in this Plan. Mobilityenhancement is the narrower goal and will not beachieved automatically be promoting telecommu-nications infrastructure and applications general-ly. Once a plan for enhancing mobility throughtelecommunications is set in motion, the generaleconomic benefits will also come along.

At the same time that travel demand is risingsteadily in Southern California, the power andreach of telecommunications is growing rapidly aswell. Telecommunications encompasses themovement of voices, graphics, video, computerdata, and other information over a distance usingelectromagnetic waves that travel through metaland glass cables or the air. Telephones, fax,broadcast and cable television, cellular, paging,computer communications like electronic mail

and Internet, video-conferencing, and the myriadof new services coming over the "informationhighway" are all part of telecommunications.

The graphics in Exhibits 5 and 6 are just two outof many possible indications of the speed atwhich telecommunications technology is develop-ing. The first figure illustrates the past and futuregrowth in the power of microcomputers, whichare essential components of modern telecommu-nications. The number of transistors on each chipis growing inexorably. The second figure illus-trates the trend in dial-up data communicationsbandwidth -- expressed in bits per second -- avail-able to homes and small businesses over thecourse of the 1990s. The 1990-96 figures repre-sent typical modem speeds in each year, starting2400 bits per second and progressing through28,800 bits per second modems widely sold as of1996 in computer stores and popular for Internetsurfing. The 1998 figure represents the digital, no-modem connection speed of digital phone circuits(ISDN, integrated services digital network) thatare growing in availability throughout Californiaand elsewhere, and the year 2000 figure of 1.5million bits per second represents an estimate ofminimum data rates expected by many observersto be commonly available at the turn of the centu-ry through "cable modems" or other telecommu-nications technologies.

1990 1992 1994 1996

1500000

1000000

500000

01998 2000

128000

288001440096002400

1500000Bits per second

1983 1986 1990 1994

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

01996 1999

Exhibit 5: Growing Number of Transistors in eachMicrocomputer Chip

Exhibit 6: Typical Data Communications SpeedsAvailable for Homes and Small Business

Overview and Issues Identification

Source: Business Week, Feb. 20,1995, p. 88 Source: Global Telematics


TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Telecommunications means interactive communi-cations and other conveyance of information overa distance by electronic and optical means.Telecommunications can be used even over shortdistances, as in the case of intercoms, local areanetworks (LANs), cordless phones, private branchexchanges (PBX), and master antenna TV servicesin apartment buildings. However, theTelecommunications Cluster will focus on dis-tances of at least 1000 feet, the approximate spanat which people begin to use vehicles for move-ment instead of walking.[2]

At the other extreme, while telecommunicationscan reach around the globe and out into deepspace, the focus for the present plan will be ontelecommunications that allows informationmovement within the Southern California region,up to around 300 miles. At the same time it isusually impossible to limit how far telecommuni-cations can reach. The power of telecommunica-tions as a channel for exporting and importing

goods and services to and from SouthernCalifornia is a key characteristic, as is the powerof long-distance communications to influence theflow of people visiting the region by car, train,plane, and ship. The long-distance reach oftelecommunications also permits the outsourcingof work and the export of jobs from the region.Since long-distance communications beyond theboundaries of the Southern California regionaffects the movement of people and goods withinthe boundaries, it is a characteristic that will needto be remembered throughout the work of theTelecommunications Cluster, although the mainCluster emphasis is on shorter-range telecommu-nications applications.

The telecommunications system is a network ofnetworks, including telephones, cellular phones,satellite dishes, cable TV, broadcast services,computer networks, and other systems.Telecommunications technologies includes all ofthe following products and services shown inExhibit 7. In simple terms telecommunications is

Exhibit 7: Telecommunications Technology Inventory

800/900 Services

Asynchronous Transfer Mode

Audiotex

Bridges

Celluar Equipment

Centrex

Client-Server Applications

Cluster Controllers

Communications Software

Database Servers

Desktop Publishing

Document Management

DSU/CSU

Electronic Data Exchange

Electronic Mail

Fax/Modem Boards

Firewalls

Frame Relay

FT-1, T-1, T-3 Services

Gateways

Graphical User Interface

Groupware

Imaging

Intelligent Hubs

Internet Access Providers

Internet Software Tools

Inverse Multiplexers

ISDN

Leased Lines

Local Area Networks

Mainframe Computers

Microcomputers

Middleware

Minicomputers

Modems

Multimedia

Multiplexers

Network Management Software

Notebook Computers

On-line Services

PBXs

Personal Digital Assistants

Printers

Remote Access

Routers

Security Software

Site Metering

SMDS

SONET

Switched Data

Systems Management Software

Terminal Emulation Software

Terminals

Videoconferencing

Virtual Networks

Voice Mail

VSAT and other Satellite

Web Servers and Browsers

Wireless Data Services

Wireless Data Equipment

Word Processing Software

Workstations


Exhibit 8: Layers of Telecommunications

the combination of five familiar systems, theswitched voice-data- video telephone system,cable TV systems, cellular and other wirelesscommunications systems, satellite systems, andbroadcast TV and radio. Large organizations oftenhave private communications systems of enor-mous size and complexity, parts of which are gen-erally leased or otherwise sourced out to tele-phone companies and other common carriers.

Computing is increasingly converging on telecom-munications, yielding an advanced telecommuni-cations that some give a new name such astelematics or telecomputing. This convergenceshows up in several ways:

◆ An increasing share of telecommunications content originates as computer data.

◆ Automated response systems, where callerspress buttons to generate tones that causeinformation to be sent back, such as electronictouch-tone banking, amounts to using thetelephone as a computer terminal.

◆ Most other telecommunications traffic (voice,video, graphics) is digitized via computers forfast transmission via fiber optics. This comput-erization of information sometimes includesencoding and decoding for security, compres-sion to remove redundant information, andconversion to discrete packets of informationfor transmission. Newer, faster, higher capacitytelecommunications services such as framerelay and asynchronous transfer mode dependutterly on computers

◆ For the management of telecommunicationsprocesses, including setting up end-to-end cir-cuits via switching, coordinating the manyantennas used by cellular telephones, andmonitoring telecommunications network per-formance, computers are integral.

Telecommunications is best analyzed by a logicallayering that separates narrower causes and larg-er effects. One possible model that dividestelecommunications into layers has been devel-oped by Global Telematics. See Exhibit 8. Themodel stacks the more fundamental parts of thetelecommunications milieu, such as infrastructureand network attachments, at the bottom of an

hourglass-shaped stack. The model puts theenabled, resulting effects of telecommunications,such as societal functioning, toward the top. Thereason for the narrowing in the middle of thestack is to make the point that the relationshipbetween the technology issues that comprisetelecommunications and the external issues thatlie outside of telecommunications, such as mobil-ity, is easiest to understand in the middle of thestack. The following description covers each layerof the model, starting at the bottom. [3]

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Network infrastructure is the physical facilities ofnetworks that allow information to flow fromplace to place. Examples of network infrastructureare copper and fiberoptic cables, switches, earthsatellites, satellite dish antennas, and cellulartelephone antennas

A key characteristic of infrastructure is band-width, which means the amount of informationthat can flow through a single point in a givenperiod of time. Bandwidth is expressed in bits ofinformation per second. Higher bandwidth meansfaster data transmissions and higher quality videoand graphical representations. With wires andcables, this bandwidth increase is achieved bychanging the material out of which cables aremade, typically from copper to glass fiber. Withradio systems, the bandwidth is increased by

Societal Functioning

Organizational Process

User Behavior

Applications

Functions

Services

Attachments

Network Infrastructure


using ever smaller, computer coordinated trans-mission areas called cells, and then using thesame frequencies over and over again in differentcells that are not adjacent. With all kinds of infra-structure, there is a general technological trend tosqueeze more and more bandwidth capability outof existing facilities. This is done with better elec-tronics, some of which is aimed at signal com-pression, which raises bandwidth by eliminatingthe transmission of redundant information.

Furthermore, more bandwidth is not always bet-ter than less bandwidth in practical applicationsof telecommunications. It is sometimes assertedblithely that video is invariably an important addi-tion to telework and teleservice applications, andhigher bandwidth is important in making personto person video communications work successful-ly. However, there are many kinds of workgroupand customer/client communications in whichvideo is a distraction in remote interaction. This isobviously the case when communicating whiledriving a car. But even when sitting at a desk,pure voice communications, or voice plus docu-ment sharing, works better than video. Voice anddocument sharing are low bandwidth applicationsthat work over the telephone infrastructure oftoday. As another example, research shows thatcertain kinds of psychological counseling aremore effective when delivered over the telephonethan in face-to-face sessions, because visualinformation is distracting to the discussion of per-sonal problems. While there is no denying thatgrowing bandwidth will be offered to users in thefuture, the bandwidth available today works verywell in many practical applications of telecommu-nications that would improve mobility. The largerissue in designing technology for human interac-tion is appropriate bandwidth, not more band-width.

Lack of a particular type of infrastructure is some-times singled out by analysts and civic leaders apriori as a singular, key barrier to the deploymentof more effective telecommunications applica-tions. This is sometimes true, but not usually. Thetruth of this judgment in a particular circumstancedepends on the nature of the applications, thestate of readiness of users, the schedule underwhich the "missing" infrastructure is beinginstalled as a result of market forces, the avail-

ability of alternative infrastructure either now orin the near future, the alternatives available innetwork attachments and associated software,and other factors including trends in functionalinteroperability. A case in point is the typical lackof fiber optic cabling to residential locations. Overthe past decade, this "infrastructure gap" hasbeen well mitigated by new technologies such asfaster modems and new digital services that letthe existing copper wiring system reach higherbandwidths, and by alternative infrastructuressuch as cable TV system retrofits and new smalldish satellite antennas.

NETWORK ATTACHMENTS

Network attachments, sometimes called terminaldevices or customer premises equipment areattached to telecommunications networks byusers in order to send and receive communica-tions. Examples of network attachments are telephones, fax machines, kiosks, pagers, andpersonal computers. Over time, more technicallyadvanced network attachments can incrementallyovercome some of the inadequacies in infrastructure.

NETWORK SERVICES

Telecommunications companies sell differentkinds of telecommunications services to users.Examples of network services are local flat-ratetelephone service, long distance toll service, cen-trex services (like call waiting and call forward-ing), Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN, adigital phone service that allows faster datatransmission than through modems attached totypical analog phone lines), AsynchronousTransfer Mode (ATM, a very fast digital communi-cations service just beginning to be used to con-nect organizations), voicemail, fax mailboxes, andvideo distribution. In some areas, cable TV com-panies are planning to sell Internet access serviceto consumers.

USER FUNCTIONS

User functions are activities that are carried outthrough the use of telecommunications. Examplesof user functions are providing supervisoryinstructions to employees, watching the news,


interacting with peers, and searching for lastweeks sports scores. There are seven generic cat-egories of telecommunications user functions:

◆ Person-to-person real-time interactive communications (pairwise or in groups), such as talking on the phone or participating in a video-conference.

◆ One way messaging from a person or organi-zational entity to one other person or to manypeople, such as sending an email or fax, leav-ing a voicemail, or a radio or television broad-cast.

◆ Information retrieval through human interac-tion with a computer, such as searching anddownloading from an online database.

◆ Transaction processing, such as buying or sell-ing something with a credit card, or using anautomatic teller machine to obtain cash.

◆ Remote process monitoring and controls, suchas observing the status of freeway traffic via amap on the Internet, or checking the status ofan arriving airline flight by calling an automat-ed response system on the phone.

◆ Machine-to-machine communication (no-human intervention), such as managing trafficlights or electricity flows in a power system vianetworked computer-processing.

◆ Entertainment and recreation, which is mostlyserved now by one to many broadcasting, but will become more one to one and personalized.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS APPLICATIONS

A telecommunications application is the deploy-ment and use by one or more organizations ofnetworks, hardware, software, and telecommuni-cations services to carry out an organizationalpurpose such as service delivery to customers, orsupport of employees in dispersed locations.Examples of telecommunications applications aretelecommuting, telemarketing, community net-working.

Telecommunications applications typically sup-port combinations of user functions. For example,

a telecommuting application may support verbalinteraction with the supervisor and colleagues,linking in to the company computer network, andobtaining information from outside the organiza-tion.

USER BEHAVIOR

People behave differently as a result of telecom-munications applications than they did beforetelecommunications came along. Issues of humaninterest and motivation as well as education andskill levels come into play here.

Examples of user behavior in this context are howpeople actually use the telephone or the Internet.The predilection of people to use a video-confer-ence as opposed to just talking on the phone,meeting face-to-face comes in here. How peoples'behavior with respect to local vehicle travel areaffected by telecommunications is the bottom linefocus in this report.

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR

Like people, organizations change how they oper-ate as a result of telecommunications. Examplesinclude the effects of telecommuting on how com-panies do their work through employees, andhow firms change their operating procedures as aresult of electronic mail and the Internet.

Organizations generate travel by their employees,some of which is paid time over which organiza-tions have a normal economic motivation to con-trol costs. When organization pay for travel time,they have an incentive to develop telecommunica-tions applications which will reduce costs orachieve more benefit for the same resources.

SOCIETAL FUNCTIONING

At the top level of the layering we consider howorganizations and people behave collectively inthe socio-economic system as a result of all thelower layers of telecommunications operating inthe context of the marketplace and the politicalsystem. In other words, the effect of the market-place and the political system cut across all thelayers in this representation, but we are showingby this layer that there is a net result in overallsocio-economic functioning. The particular aspectof socio-economic functioning of most interest in


this Plan is the mix of physical travel and commu-nicating in the Southern California Region thatresults from expanding telecommunications andgrowing traffic congestion. There are also eco-nomic results such as job and enterprise creation,and job and enterprise destruction. The economicresults will happen in any event.

Government or private action to improve onelayer does not automatically cause a change inanother layer. There are many intervening vari-ables. For example, causing telephone companiesto install fiber optics to schools and libraries doesnot mean that people will universally becomemore educated and earn more money, or thatpeople will take advantage of the information thatflows through the fiber optic cables, or even thatthe fiber optic cables will be attached to a sourcethat provides useful information.

Similarly, reducing trips to schools and librariesmay not be promoted by improving the quality ofthe telecommunications infrastructure and ser-vices and equipment that serve these schools, ifthe major obstacle to trip reduction lies in a dif-ferent direction. In education, for example, thereis a deep set of motivations and traditional prac-tices that cause daily travel by students andteachers to school buildings and campuses.Wiring the building may reinforce these practices,not change them. Electronic services that couldreplace trips to a library may come from peopleusing electronic connections to places other thanlibraries, such as the central database that cata-logs library holdings, or an on-line informationprovider in a different city, or a mail-order bookseller.

Another reason for focusing public interest basedintervention into the telecommunications market-place on applications rather than on the lower,more technological layers relates to the complexi-ty and difficulty in even understanding howtelecommunications technology is evolving.Random excerpts from the telecommunicationstrade press shown in Exhibit 9 illustrate the tech-nical complexity around telecommunicationstechnology. As will be shown later in this report,applications can be more easily analyzed in termsof travel impacts than the technology components

of infrastructure, network attachments, and services.

Every different telecommunications applicationdepends upon different institutional arrange-ments, systems of user training, methods of tech-nical support, and levels of user acceptance.While these components can over time be gener-alized and addressed at the levels of user behav-ior, organizational behavior, or societal function-ing, these components must initially be dealt withat the applications level. What is done in the wayof institutional arrangements, training, and tech-

"The ideal voice coder/decoder must meet thequantization distortion requirements of an inter-national network connection. It must also sup-port facsimile and modem transmission as wellas take advantage of the latest in compressiontechniques to offer the highest level of band-width efficiency." from "Time for a shift in thepublic telephone network" by Martin Shum,Communications Week, January 22, 1996, page 39.

"Fast Ethernet and 100VG-AnyLAN could be theplatform upon which VLANs are initially built,although architectural differences from ATMwould make VLAN implementation on those net-works much more complicated." from "Switchesthreaten router's role" by Luc Hatlestad,InfoWorld, January 22, 1996, page 53.

"The transport services packetize data and sendit over the network via a WinSock-compliantTCP/IP stack. This is done in real time via theIETF Real-Time Transport Protocol. The softwarealso ensures the network path is clear of inter-ference and that multimedia traffic gets priorityover less deterministic traffic. Precept'sMultimedia Services run atop the transport ser-vices to compress, decompress and synchronizethe data." from "Multimedia traffic without theATM fuss" by Barb Cole, Network World, January22, 1996, page 65.

Exhibit 9: Trade Press Quotations Illustrating High Level of Obscure Jargon:


nical support to gain user acceptance and wide-spread use of video-conferencing is likely to be different than what is done to implement electronic document retrieval, or medical imagetransmission.

Telecommunications deployment for purposes ofthis report means increasing societal usage ofvoice, data, and video telecommunications. Thisdeployment is related to the availability of hard-ware, software, and services from the private sec-tor, and also the amount of such product that isactually bought. Deployment also bears a rela-tionship to the way in which these products areused in households and in organizations.

There is a national, state, and local framework oflegislation and regulation that shapes telecom-munications deployment by making impacts oninfrastructure and business practices. Consultantshave reviewed policy-related materials from theCalifornia Public Utility Commission, ProjectCalifornia, the Governor's Council on InformationTechnology, the City of Los Angeles SpecialAdvisory Committee on TechnologyImplementation, Joint Venture Silicon Valley, TheInstitute for Local Self Government (Sacramento),The National Information Infrastructure AdvisoryCouncil, the U.S. Department of Transportation,and the U.S. Department of Energy [4]. Thesereports and others contain a wealth of informa-tion on telecommunications deployment generallyand in particular with respect to seeking overalleconomic effects. However, there is very littlefocus in these reports on the particular trip-mak-ing impacts of telecommunications, either posi-tive or negative, except for references to telecom-muting. When distance learning or telehealth ismentioned, the concern is on (as it should be)improving education or improving health care, asopposed to mobility impacts.

Outside of telecommuting applications and out-side of the agencies and consultants that arealready involved with the creation of this presentplan, there is little focus on mobility impacts oftelecommunications as a public benefit. The Cityof Los Angeles Information Technology Task Force

report does not mention the word "telecommut-ing." The Project California Blueprint forEnergizing California's Economic Recovery advo-cates the establishment of a telecommuting man-agement training program as its single mobilityrelated initiative.

The California Public Utilities Commission report"Enhancing California's Competitive Strength: AStrategy for Telecommunications Infrastructure"lists reducing traffic congestion and improving airquality as a major benefit. The report describeshow the Commission intends to foster a telecom-munications infrastructure which forms the foun-dation on which "commuters see their travelingtime shrink or vanish" and "rural and remote con-sumers, electronically linked to employers,schools, health-care providers, businesses, gov-ernment agencies and sources of entertainmentand information, no longer face the potential limi-tations brought on by distance from urban cen-ters." That is the total of what the report says onmobility enhancement.

The general pattern in these and other telecom-munications policy reports is to list travel savingsas an assumed benefit of telecommunications,and then assume that any policy steps that willimprove telecommunications will also yield travelsavings. A partial exception to this pattern is theInstitute for Local Self Government's 1991Telecommunications Framework for Cities whichgenerally links travel savings to local governmentdevelopment of specific telecommunicationsapplications. As was documented in a U.S.Department of Energy study, BeyondTelecommuting [5], the obvious linkage oftelecommunications to travel savings is only halfthe story. There are as many items on the list ofways in which telecommunications increases travel as there is on the list of ways in whichtelecommunications reduces travel. More on thispoint below.

Within the constellation of "telecommunicationsmobility" projects funded by the CaliforniaDepartment of Transportation, there has beensome interest in travel effects measurement,namely the work of University of California atDavis on telecenters and on the Davis CommunityNetwork, and the telecommunications planningwork of the Chancellor's Office of the California

Telecommunications Deployment


focus for changing the path of telecommunica-tions deployment toward the goal of achieving anapplications level benefit, such as mobilityenhancement. Applications are easy to under-stand, offer leverage points, facilitate widespreadparticipation, and integrate well with businessmarketing initiatives.

Exhibit 10 shows the complex relationshipbetween telecommunications applications andtelecommunications technology in the form ofinfrastructure, devices, and services. Down theleft side of the matrix are a variety of telecommu-nications applications that would accomplish trip-making impacts. These applications are logically

Community Colleges. On the other hand, therehas also been a clear thrust in the Caltrans spon-soring office to divert focus from the travel substi-tution issue, and instead focus on larger, non-mobility issues, such as economic competitive-ness and quality of life. Caltrans may be operatingwithin its mission by focusing on telecommunica-tions deployment broadly, but if the main task athand for the Association and The Partnership is toachieve benefits related to the physical mobilitythat causes air pollution, then the focus must beon specific ways of doing that.

From among the layers described earlier, telecom-munications applications are the best organizing

Place of High Telecomnuting 6.3% ofdaily work Commute X X X X X X

Trips

Shopping High Check stockouts,Malls parking, & crowds

before you go. Once TBD X X X X X X X Xthere, use kiosks toavoid other stops.

Off-site Work Medium All modes of TBD X X X XMeetings teleconferencing

College Medium Networked electronicCampuses classrooms. Remote TBD X X X X X X X& High access to librarySchools resources

Medical Medium Remote Offices consultation.

In-home patient TBD X X X X X X Xmonitoring. Remotetreatment.

Customers & Low Pre-visit remoteProspects in monitoring & the Field qualification. TBD X X X X X X(Industrial & Electronic interactionBusiness for followup. SalesSales) literature on line.

Grocery Low Electronic ordering TBD X X X X XStores & home delivery

Cinemas, Low Enticing, in homeVideo Rentals, alternatives to going TBD X X X X X XArcades out.

Government Low Remote access to Buildings documents, services, TBD X X X X X X X

hearings.

Banks, Low Teller machines inFinancial malls. Ekectronic TBD X X X X X X XServices deposit & bill pay.

Loans by phone.

Prospective Low Electronic access toEmployers current opportunities TBD X X X X X X XJob Hunt Video screening Stops interviews.

Houses for Low On-line photos forSale with screening. Electronic TBD X X X X X X X X X XListing signatures.Agents

Travel Estimated Telecom Southern Voice Voicemail Mulipoint Home World Wide BRI ISDN Desktop Megabit Public Electronic Broadcast WirelessDestination Relative Applications for California Phone Audio Computers Web of the (Digetal Switched Bandwidth Kiosks Data Video Data

Share of Trip Saving Travel Access to Conferences Communi- Internet Phone Video to Homes Interchange MonitoringDaily Trips Saving Computer cations Service) (EDI) of Public

Potential Data Equipped to Homes Spaces

Contributing Infrastruture, Devices and Services

Exhibit 10: Linking Trip Purposes to Telecommunications Deployment


zations. For example, an employer implementstelecommuting, an on-line service provider workswith a group of stores to set up electronic shop-ping, or a university sets up a distance learningsystem that lets students take classes from theirhomes and offices. A more complete listing oftelecommunications applications than can fit inone column of a matrix is shown in Exhibit 11.

and necessarily divided by trip purpose, such asjourney to work and shopping. Examples of par-ticular telecommunications infrastructure,devices, and services that can underlie the poten-tial applications are indicated by the matrix onthe right hand side of the exhibit.

DEPLOYMENT

In general, telecommunications applications areimplemented one at a time through what we calltelecommunications application development anddeployment (TADD) projects carried out by organi-

Exhibit 11: Generic telecommunications applications with travel impacts, categorized by applications area or travel purpose

◆ Telework (changing the location of workers)

• Telecommuting from home

• Telecommuting from telework centers

• Telework facilities exchange

• Virtual office practices for sales, maintenance,and other mobile professionals

• Audio or video teleconference business meetings within large multi-site organizations

• Audio or video teleconference business meet-ings between different organizations

• On-line design collaboration between net-worked studios using graphic workstations

• Inter-institutional networks for research andeducation collaboration

• Telemetry monitoring of remote instrumenta-tion traditionally visited (air quality, water levels of streams)

• Initial employment interviews conducted viavideoconference

• Remote monitoring, diagnosis, and even repairof complex machinery such as computers, pho-tocopy machines, and automatic elevators

• Replacing a staff of employees (who all com-mute to a facility) with computers and othermachines (elimination of telephone operatorjobs, for example\; elimination of customerassistance staff with an interactive voicemailsystem)

• Remote translation services over the telephone

◆ Information retrieval

• Typical community networks such as LosAngeles and Orange County Free-Nets

• Typical home access to commercial on-line ser-vices like Compuserve, America On Line,Prodigy, and GENIE.

• Typical home Internet usage

• On-line library catalogs

• Real estate multiple listing databases withinterior and exterior photos

• Electronic resume distribution and job postings

• Remote interactive access to career information

• On-line telephone directories like the FrenchMinitel

• Fax-on-demand services for product informa-tion, real estate listings, etc.

• Remote access to citations, abstracts, and full-text on-line literature, eg, Dialog andLEXIS/NEXIS

◆ Electronic entertainment

• On-line wagering

• 500 channel cable TV in homes providing morecoverage of events that people might otherwiseattend in person (pet shows and fashion showsat the mall)

• On-line, interactive chat services


• Movies on demand delivered via cable or satellite dish

◆ Distance learning

• Videoconferencing between college classrooms

• On-line educational courses through student'scomputer

• University registration by phone or computer

• Adult education/training provided via one-waytelevision

• Adult education/training provided via interac-tive videoconference

• Adult education/training provided via interac-tive computer-aided instruction in a kiosk

• Homework help lines

• On-line educational services and communica-tions offered through bulletin boards, commer-cial on-line services, and the Internet.

◆ Telehealth

• Electronic medical records

• Remote consultation techniques between med-ical facilities\; includes teledentistry

• Remote diagnosis between medical facilities

• Remote participation in medical procedures, egteledentistry and telesurgery

• Home monitoring of medical patients

• Electronic communications in support of homemedical treatment

• Medical image transmission

• Teleconference meetings for support groups

• Remote access to psychological and othercounseling

• Claims forms filed electronically

• Email and telephone for medical follow up.

• Automatic telephone calls to remind people totake medication

• Remote access to medical literature

◆ Traveler information services

• Airline ticketing by telephone

• Electronic "ticketless" ticketing

• Travel information received over the telephoneor via personal computer

• Bus pass sales through bank ATM kiosks

◆ Public safety applications

• Videoconference arraignment of arrested crimesuspects

• Interactive court services: electronic documentfiling, searching, and retrieval

• Electronic monitoring of home confinement

• Legal proceedings conducted by telephoneaudioconference

• Crime reports taken over the phone instead ofin person

• Criminal justice information systems within thelaw enforcement and judicial community

◆ Electronic government

• Electronic benefits distribution

• Televising of government meetings and hearings

• Electronic filing of taxes, claims, and otherforms

• On-line access to government documentsthrough home computers

• On-line access to government documentsthrough kiosks

• Government documents via fax-on-demand systems

• Licensing and permit transactions throughkiosks and the internet, including obtainingpermits and accessing information on regula-tions.

• Electronic voting

◆ Teleshopping

• On-line grocery shopping

• On-line gift shopping

• On-line automobile shopping

• On-line clothing shopping

• On-line shopping for consumer electronics andhome appliances

• Telephone ordering of pizzas and other food fordelivery


• Telephone and on-line ordering of tickets forevents and for travel

◆ On-line financial services

• Cash machine ATMs in non-bank locations

• Electronic home banking

• Loan applications taken via videoconferencekiosks

• On-line investment services for managing port-folios and making transactions in stocks,bonds, and mutual funds

• Direct bank deposit of employee paychecks

◆ Telelogistics

• Documents that are faxed or sent as computerfiles instead of ink on paper

• Personal or business correspondence by emailor fax rather than by U.S. Postal service,overnight delivery, or local courier.

• Movement of digitized film clips between production locations

• In metro use of overnight package deliver likeFederal Express

• Postage stamp sales through bank ATM kiosks

• Electronic data interchange (EDI) for commer-cial transactions between companies and gov-ernment agencies

• Electronic distribution of software

• Electronic versions of newspapers and maga-zines

• Move page images from layout facilities to printing press locations electronically


In the six county Southern California Region thereare as of early 1996 thousands of telecommunica-tions applications development and deploymentprojects in various stages ranging from conceptu-al discussion to economic justification analysis towork planning to implementation to testing to ini-tial operation. Successful projects when complet-ed turn into applications that can be studied forlessons helpful to others.

Because of the pervasiveness and changingnature of telecommunications, an assessment ofthe status of telecommunications in SouthernCalifornia is necessarily based on sampling. It iseasy to find many examples of fine telecommuni-cations applications across the six counties ofSouthern California, a few of which are shown inExhibit 12.

Another measure of the initiative that is beingshown in Southern California telecommunicationsdevelopment lies in the 56 regional non-profitsand government agencies that applied for fundingunder the U.S. Government's Telecommunicationsand Information Infrastructure AssistanceProgram (TIIAP) in 1995. See Exhibit 13. These areprojects that the exemplify public interest goalsof the Clinton-Gore National InformationInfrastructure (Superhighway) program. Therewere 1800 applicants nationwide and 117 winnersnationwide. Five of the winners were from theregion, described in Exhibit 14. As usual, the goalof mobility improvement does not seem to beexplicit in any of these projects. It should beadded to the design through the influence of theTelecommunications Cluster.

2. Status of Telecommunications in Southern California

Imperial Co. • LightLink Internet Access Server in El Centro. Provides Internet access to information from City of El Centro, public schools in that county, Imperial Valley Community College, and Imperial County businesses.

Los Angeles Co. • A 1995 NII Awards Finalist, Kaleidospace is an application on the World Wide Web of the Internet that provides independent artists, musicians, and writers with a new outlet for promotion, distribution, and placement.

• The Blue Line Televillage being set up by the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority at the Compton Transit Center is a community center where computers and telecommu-nications provide South Central Los Angeles residents with education and training, medical information and services, telework support, and access to government information and transaction processing.

• CityTel network serving the City of Long Beach is the nation's first citywide ISDN telecommunica-tions network. CityTel network links 21 departments at 200 locations with 4,500 employees. It offers both voice and data communications.

• JobTrak Corporation of Los Angeles operates one of the largest online job recruitment services, used by more than 150,000 small and large employers to list openings for 300 college career centers nationwide.

• Another 1995 NII Awards Finalist, the Santa Monica Public Electronic Network provides electronic mail, online conferencing, and public access to government information to all citizens, particularly those economically disadvantaged who would otherwise be excluded from participation in community life.

• Ameritech will soon provide Los Angeles County Superior Court with interactive court services, enabling law firms to file and retrieve documents electronically, as well as search documents and civil indexes.

Orange Co. • A 1995 NII Awards Finalist, the Internet Payment System created by First Virtual Holdings, Inc. of Huntington Beach provides a safe, easy, economical means for buying and selling information and goods over the Internet.

• California Community Colleges have been offering televised courses over public television broadcasting stations and local cable channels since the 1970s.

• The Irvine Unified School District is a pioneer in the use of interactive cable television for teaching classes of children who are distributed over many separate school buildings.

Exhibit 12: Examples of Existing Telecommunications Applications in Southern California


Riverside Co. • CORNET, County of Riverside Internetwork, is an Internet-based electronic communications network that provides interagency t communications and information exchange among local governments and educational institutions.

• The Consolidated and Coordinated Courts of Riverside County has established a cross-court document imaging system to allow document filings for any court to be made in any court facility countywide. A person who receives a traffic violation on one side of the county can pay in their hometown courthouse on the other side.

San Bernardino Co. • A graduate-level, mentored on-line seminar has begun to be offered at the International School of Theology in San Bernardino via electronic mail. It demonstrates an alternative learning environment to the simulated lecture model of videoconferencing and the correspondence course model used in televised courses.

• Video arraignment of charged criminal defendants has been used in the County of San Bernardino, as well as Riverside and Los Angeles Counties, since the 1980s. An interactive video signal links the jail and the courthouse, instead of having to transport prisoners to the judge.

Ventura Co. • California State University Northridge has a distance learning program offered via video telecommunications at its satellite campus in Ventura and at the Antelope Valley Telecenter.

• The City of Oxnard Police Department has provided each officer with immediate access to a gang offender tracking system, a database of information on Oxnard's 50 gangs. Also, an automated phone calling system warns neighborhood residents of crime patterns that they can defend themselves against.

Region-wide • Banks such as First Interstate are deploying Automatic Teller Machines in an increasing number of locations in Southern California.

• The InFoPeople Project provides public access to the Internet through Public Libraries throughout California, including the six counties of the Southland.

• The Association of Governments ACCESS project is in development to provide access to maps and the Internet in local government offices throughout Southern California. (See Appendix Bfor a detailed description.)


Exhibit 13: Non-profit and government organizations in the Southern California region that applied for fed-eral funding support of telecommunications development in 1995.

• City of Anaheim Public Utilities Department

• City of Burbank

• California State University-Dominguez Hills,School of Extended Education

• Tomas Rivera Center, Claremont

• Coast Community College District

• Los Angeles County Office of Education,Educational Telecommunications Network (ETN)

• County of Imperial

• Information and Referral Federation of Los Angeles

• LA Free-Net

• Hueneme School District

• California State University-Fullerton

• City of Glendale, Library Division/LNX Systems

• Irvine Unified School District

• Desert Community College District, CopperMountain Campus

•California State University-Long Beach

• American Film Institute, Advanced TechnologyPrograms

• C.O.A.C.H. Foundation, Los Angeles

• Center for Governmental Studies, Los Angeles

• CHARO Community Development Corporation,Enterprise Innovation Center, Los Angeles

• City of Los Angeles, Eighth Council District

• Community Coalition for Substance AbusePrevention & Treatment, Los Angeles

• Crippled Children's Society of SouthernCalifornia, Inc.

• Hobart Boulevard Elementary School, Los Angeles

• Korean Youth and Community Center, LosAngeles

• L.A. SHARES

• Los Angeles County Metropolitan TransportationAuthority

• Los Angeles County Public Defender

Los Angeles Educational Partnership

Los Angeles Public Library

• Los Angeles Unified School District

• National Health Foundation, Los Angeles

• Otis College of Art and Design

• Public Counsel, Los Angeles

• UCLA Obstetrics & Gynecology Women's HealthDivision

• UCLA Institute of Archaeology

• USC School of Urban and Regional Planning

• USC School of Engineering

• Monrovia Unified School District

• Strathern Elementary School, North Hollywood

• Sponsorlink, Northridge

• Oxnard School District

• Oxnard Union High School District

• City of Palmdale, Public Safety Office

• Palmdale School District

• Pasadena City College

• California State Polytechnic University-Pomona

• Hueneme School District

• Redondo Beach Unified School District, ADTECHConsortium

• ECT Technolink Foundation, Inc., Riverside

• San Bernadino County Superintendent of Schools

• Hermandad Mexicana Nacional Legal Center,Santa Ana

• Orange County Environmental ManagementAgency

• Santa Ana Unified School District

• Los Angeles Mission College

• El Camino Community College

• San Gabriel Valley Commerce and CitiesConsortium


Exhibit 14: The five Southern California winners in the 1995 grant competition from the U.S.Department of Commerce, National Telecommunications and Information AdministrationTelecommunications Information Infrastructure Assistance Program.

The Los Angeles County Office of Education will carry out a comprehensive telecommunica-tions planning process for 82 K-12 school districts and 1.4 million K-12 students, 65% Hispanicand African-Americans. The outcome of this process will be a replicable planning model forschools to use in customizing their infrastructure design. As a result, schools will be able toplan for affordable access to applications such as reduced cost digital telephone service,Internet connectivity, and district local area access to County applications such as payroll andsocial service information. The project partners are the Los Angeles County Office of Education,82 K-12 school districts, five P.T.A. districts within Los Angeles County, and the Los AngelesCounty Public Library.

This project will use grant funds to provide free Internet services and computer access to LosAngeles public school students and their families -- the majority of whom are minority, non-English speaking, and of mid- to low-socioeconomic status. This project will establish anInternet link with local, state and national museums and the city library, providing a free, inter-active exchange of information among students, teachers and parents in central communityfacilities. The community partners for this project include the Afro-American Museum, the GeneAutry Western Museum, the Japanese American National Museum, the Museum of Science andIndustry, and the Central City Library.

The Hermandad Mexicana Nacional will create a mobile interactive job placement process bydeveloping a Mobile Job Bank to circulate in underserved Hispanic communities. Commoncommunity characteristics include substantial unemployment and underemployment, lack ofaccess to job information resources, and communication obstacles. The mobile on-line servicewill provide job placement, training and counseling in partnership with existing municipal,county, state and private employment databases. The caravan will be a mobile kiosk utilizingmulticultural icons on touch-screens to let applicants access updated employment opportuni-ties, match skills to available jobs, and set up real-time job placement interviews.

The Santa Ana Unified School District will demonstrate how to use an existing cable televisionnetwork to bring the resources of the Internet to over 50,000 low-income, limited English-speaking K-12 students. The district has a broadband network of coaxial cables called the INET,or Institutional Network. With the addition of computer technology, this network will connectinformation servers at 52 school sites, including all existing computer labs in each school,Rancho Santiago Community College, and numerous community agencies at City Hall. TheDistrict Technology Task Force, which includes the school district and the city government, alsohas numerous private sector contributors, such as Comcast, Cross Country Wireless, AppleComputers, and Featherstone Communications.

The INFO-LINE of Los Angeles will use grant funds to improve delivery and access to publicwelfare services. INFO-LINE regularly serves more than 200,000 individuals and families eachyear, but demands exceed twice that. Los Angeles County has more than 4,500 health andhuman services programs with hundreds of overlapping and conflicting geographically-basedservice areas. INFO-LINE will provide widespread, low-cost, high-speed access to a comprehen-sive, centralized and standardized database. The database will improve the capacity of localgovernment and private non-profit organizations to serve the county at large and help individu-als gain more information about the services available to them. To accomplish project goals,INFO-LINE will use Internet-based access and will be accessible from even the most basic ofcomputers already in use at various health and human services organizations.

Los Angeles CountyOffice of EducationEducationalTelecommunicationsNetwork (ETN)

Los Angeles Unified SchoolDistrict

HermandadMexicana NacionalLegal CenterDepartment ofInformationServices, Santa Ana

Santa Ana UnifiedSchool DistrictSupport ServicesDivision

Information andReferral Federationof Los AngelesCounty


Information received from a distance via telecom-munications can affect trip-making in severalways: First and foremost, it can cause trips to beeliminated, substituted and or fulfilled, which willbe covered in more detail below. But telecommu-nications can have other effects on trip making aswell:

It can change the length of trips, making themeither longer or shorter. An on-line informationsystem could be designed to describe the nearestplace to purchase a needed item, rather than dri-ving to a familiar place that is farther away. In thelonger term, telecommunications has been impli-cated as a cause in residential sprawl, becausepeople can use telecommunications to let themtelecommute or operate a home-based business,and thus eliminate daily commuting to a centraloffice during peak traffic periods. The weekly tripto the supermarket, however, could be a muchlonger trip for a person living in a rural region sur-rounding a metropolis.

Telecommunications can also cause trips to bemade at different times, perhaps avoiding peakperiods. Telecommuters and other home workerswith flexible schedules have more opportunity todo some necessary errands during off-peak peri-ods, and stay put at home during the morningand evening rush. On the other hand, just-in-timedelivery services like Federal Express, which arevery much enabled by the technology and habitsof the information age, generate vehicle traffic inevening rush hour in order to meet the deadlinesthat are part of their rapid service.

Telecommunications can furthermore cause theroute of a trip to change. Good information abouttraffic conditions generated by Advanced TravelerInformation Systems can be the motivation forstaying off of a crowded corridor in peak, or dri-ving into a crowded corridor that would typicallybe avoided in the absence of an information sys-tem that can now reveal that the traffic is free-flowing.

Finally, telecommunications can cause the modeof travel to change. An information system thatprovides accurate, real-time information on theexact time when a bus will arrive at a nearby busstop, or a system that enables buses to make

front door pickups, could cause more people to ride the bus rather than use their private automobiles.

The net effect of all of these changes that grow-ing telecommunications can bring to metropolitanarea travel patterns is very complex to under-stand, but there is no reason to assume that theoverall effect is a net reduction in trip making. It isreasonable to assume that the price of travel indollars and in time is also an influence on the bal-ance between telecommunications and travelingthat people and a society collectively reach. Whentelecommuting and telephone use surged in thedays and weeks following the Northridge earth-quake and the disruption of Southern Californiahighways, the pattern was an example of whathappens when travel becomes more costly rela-tive to telecommunicating. As the roads arerepaired and traffic delays return to normal,telecommuting and calling falls back some,because traveling has in effect become lessexpensive in time and money.

Looking at trip replacement now, telecommunica-tions eliminates trips in the following ways:

The main method of trip elimination is thattelecommunications lets people achieve enoughof the functionality of going to a place withoutactually having to go there. Sufficient functionali-ty is achieved from a distance by telecommunica-tions allowing observation, transactions, commu-nications, and information exchange. The use oftelecommunications as a substitute for travel iscalled telesubstitution. Instead of driving to work,a worker stays home and telecommutes. Insteadof registering for university classes on the cam-pus, a student registers over the telephone.

An implication of telesubstitution is that telecom-munications applications offer alternatives toaccessibility for those who can use telesubstitu-tion, and improvements in accessibility for theremainder of people who still need or want totravel.

Accessibility is defined in the 1994 RME as theability or ease of all people to travel among vari-ous origins and destinations. Alternatives toaccessibility means that some of the purposes of

3. Trip Making Impacts

of Telecommunications


travel become available through remote, electron-ic, telecommunications access in addition tophysical access. This strategy recognizes thataccess to a service through telecommunicationsis likely to provide a quite different human experi-ence than access by visiting a person or place,sometimes superior and sometimes inferior.There is a difference between being there andcalling there. At the same time, telecommunica-tions access alternatives can be designed to befunctionally satisfactory in many service deliveryand communications situations, especially wherephysical travel is difficult or impossible.

At the same time that alternatives to accessibilityare being used, improved accessibility is a possi-bility for those who still need to travel. Improvedaccessibility means that physical transportationin vehicles is improved because fewer vehiclesare on the road and there is less congestion inpeak periods. To the degree that the use of alter-native accessibility takes vehicles off the road inpeak periods, there will be accessibility improve-ments for those who do not have satisfactorytelecommunications alternatives. How many netvehicles telecommunications usage removes fromthe road must take into account both telecommu-nications substitution effects and latent trans-portation demand. Latent demand refers to thephenomenon of empty road space being filled byother vehicles and drivers taking advantage of thespace left by vehicles that are removed.

Expanding alternatives to accessibility, andimproving accessibility are together defined asmobility enhancements.

In addition to providing opportunities for telesub-stitution, telecommunications also lets peoplecall ahead to find out that it is not worth making atrip to get there. Instead of driving around to avariety of stores looking for a particular item topurchase, a shopper phones to a number ofstores until the item is located, and then drives toone store directly. This effect is closely related totelecommunications changing the length of trips.

Accurate, up-to-date knowledge of conditions atthe destination or on the journey can cause tripsto be canceled as unnecessary with perhaps tele-conferencing or other telesubstitution usedinstead of face-to-face presence. Joining the

meeting by telephone is not so bad if the onlyfreeway leading to the site of the meeting isblocked by an accident. This effect is closely relat-ed to the effect of telecommunication changingthe timing or route of a trip, as discussed above.

Going beyond decision making by individuals,telecommunications allows the revision of organi-zational operations to eliminate passenger andfreight trips that raise costs unnecessarily.Instead of a soft drink delivery truck driving to aheavily used Coke machine once every two daysto fill it up (whether needed or not), wirelessradio status reporting on the contents of themachine allow the bottler to visit as needed,which results in visits that calculate out to onevisit every 3.3 days.

Going beyond direct functional substitution, afourth source of travel saving comes fromtelecommunications providing opportunities tochange leisure, recreational, and personal activitytoward patterns that generate fewer trips. Anexample here is members of a household stayinghome to surf the Internet rather than going out tosee a movie at the cinema. Instead of going tochurch on Sunday, a family stays home andwatches a popular minister on a televised reli-gious service.

Another way of looking at trip making impacts isto consider three kinds of effects, telework, tele-service, and telelogistics.

1. Telework is a use of telecommunications thatchanges the location of workers. Telecommutingis the most familiar form of telework, and theleading example of trip substitution.Telecommuting means working at home or closerto home, instead of commuting to the usualoffice. Extensive efforts are underway by theSouthern California Telecommuting Partnershipand the Southern California Association ofGovernments to raise the awareness and use oftelecommuting. Growth in telecommuting hasalready been factored into the RegionalTransportation Plan prepared by the Associationof Governments. Other areas of trip substitutionthrough telecommunications have not been.

The most common form of telework, though fre-quently unrecognized, is the movement of jobs


from central cities to suburbs. The dispersal ofjobs into 24 Edge Cities[6] scattered around theSouthern California region is only possiblebecause of telecommunications.

Changing worker locations may or may not be theprimary purpose of a telecommunications appli-cation that happens to change workers' locations.As the WorkSmart study, developed for Caltrans,by the Center for the New West reports [7], tele-work is motivated by the goals of organizationsfor mission performance as well as to meet theexpectations of the work force. For example, bet-ter customer service and higher sales productivitymay be motivating corporate efforts to push out-side sales professionals into mobile, virtual officearrangements where these workers stop commut-ing to the company office each morning andinstead drive directly to customer locations.Furthermore, a change in worker location becauseof telework may or may not be favorable to tripreduction efforts. It depends on how much theworker moves around across the total sum ofcommuting plus work-related trips.

2. Teleservice is a use of telecommunications thatmodifies the traditional location of customersreceiving service. A bank automatic tellermachine is a prime example of teleservice. As intelework, mobility impacts are not always a con-sideration in the design of teleservices by organi-zations.

3. Telelogistics is a use of telecommunicationsthat reduces trips that move goods. A fax-on-demand system that provides product information

to consumers and replaces some mailed materi-al is an example of telelogistics; another

example is mail order shopping.

The key notion in using telecommuni-cations to reduce trip making is notthe impossible and ridiculous task ofstopping all the important and nec-essary travel that people do, but to

provide opportunities to eliminatetrips that people would rather not make,

that organizations would rather not payfor, or that have pleasant alternatives to yield

the same or even more functionality.

If telecommunications are growing rapidly andcan eliminate and/or substitute trips, then why istrip-making showing so much growth as well?

There are several reasons:

◆ Applications of telecommunications technolo-gy by people and organizations always lagbehind the potential power of the technology.New ways of doing things used by some gen-erally take many years before being used bymost.

◆ The financial resources of organizations andpeople are not always available to buytelecommunications products and services,and to organize their use into applications thatsolve problems.

◆ Many people simply do not have the aware-ness, knowledge, skill, or motivation to usetelecommunications for the purpose of makingor substituting trips.

◆ Apart from forward thinking policy leaders inorganizations such as California Department ofTransportation, the Southern CaliforniaAssociation of Governments, the SouthernCalifornia Economic Partnership, the SouthCoast Air Quality Management District, andthe Southern California TelecommutingPartnership, most people in the region, includ-ing the majority of government and businessleaders, are not planning telecommunicationsapplications with mobility impacts as anexplicit goal. Instead, telecommunicationsapplications are implemented to enhancesales, improve customer service, cut costs, orincrease productivity, all worthwhile goals, butnot necessarily mobility-enhancing.

Perhaps the most serious threat to mobilityenhancement from expanding telecommunica-tions is the fact that it is a generator of trips aswell as a means of reduction.Telecommunications does this through a numberof dynamics:

What is Holding Back Progress?


◆ Telecommunications provides additionalknowledge of opportunities that are availableonly by taking trips.

◆ Telecommunications expands the geographicscope of awareness and operations, as well asthe number of contacts, and creates follow-upactivity that requires travel.

◆ Telecommunications improves income, produc-tivity, and wealth, some of which is used totake trips.

◆ Telecommunications facilitates geographiclocation changes, especially dispersion pat-terns such as suburbanization of residencesand employment, which creates some addi-tional travel demands.

◆ Telecommunications provides support to trav-elers, such as remote home security, and con-tinuous contact with colleagues and lovedones.

◆ Telecommunications improves the perfor-mance of the transportation system throughtraveler information, traffic control services,and other forms of Intelligent TransportationSystems (ITS).

These issues are discussed in much more detail inthe U.S. Department of Energy report, BeyondTelecommuting. Any strategy that acceleratestelecommunications as a means of enhancingmobility must be designed to avoid the effects oftelecommunications that are counterproductive tomobility.


The main impetus for the Partnership is mobilesource emissions that come from vehicle traffic.The Telecommunications Cluster's assigned wayof reducing those emissions is to take steps toaccelerate the deployment of telecommunicationsso as to provide popular alternatives to local driving.

A major issue is the determination of how theTelecommunications Cluster can make the inter-actions, transactions, and relationships thatcause travel in Southern California more telecom-munications intensive and less transportationintensive. Since resources for intervention arelimited, the Cluster needs to identify and focus inon critical leverage points.

Telecommunications is a vast and changingdomain, and the issue in achieving a narrow pur-pose like trip reduction is to define the actionsthat are most likely to make the purpose beachieved. The secondary Cluster goal of regionaleconomic benefit is likely to be achieved no matter what aspect of telecommunications ispromoted.

Civic leaders can stay above the turmoil of ongo-ing changes in technology and in industry partici-pants by focusing on the development anddeployment of applications. But which trip typesand which applications of telecommunicationsshould the Cluster focus on? Obviously, thosewhich involve the most travel, and those whichcontain a potential for reducing travel would bethe most attractive target.

Trip reduction is often not a major criterionaddressed by those people responsible for appli-cations development. However, trip reductionmay be a byproduct of pursuing other benefits,such as cost reduction or providing conveniencefor customers. This logic suggests that the Clustershould focus on applications where stakeholderscan realize other major benefits in addition totravel savings.

After the identification and analysis of criticaltelecommunications applications, the next issueis how to make these applications happen sooner,better, and more widely. This requires analyzingapplications for barriers to deployment, and

determining what to do about those barriers. Anissue here is identifying barriers that lie on thecritical path to solution, where intervention by theTelecommunications Cluster is truly useful.

4. Issues Summary

30

31Southern California Association of Governments

5. A Strategy for the

Southern California Region

MISSION STATEMENT

To accelerate the deployment of telecommunications, with an emphasis onimprovement of mobility and access.

GOALS

The overall goal is to achieve an improvement in the present pattern of telecommunicationsdeployment that result in a dramatic change in travel behavior in the region over the next 25 years.

1. Expand the market share of informationexchange, transactions, interactions, and rela-tionships that are fulfilled through telecommu-nications access instead of by vehicle

2. Reduce the barriers to -- and create new incen-tives for achieving -- the full market potentialof telecommunications for mobility and accessimprovement.

3. Assist local government and organizations todesign and implement applications thatexpand electronic access to services and worklocations.

4. Assist organizations to design and implementapplications that reduce vehicle trips in logis-tics systems.

5. Create an integrated, detailed understandingof how the quality and distribution of telecom-munications infrastructure impacts air qualityand the regional economy.

OBJECTIVES OF THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS DEPLOYMENT STRATEGY

The objective is a significant program of telecom-munications deployment acceleration through theyear 2020. The strategy continues the objective inthe 1994 RTP of 10.4% for home to work trips in2015 for telecommuting and working at home. Inaddition, the strategy aims to attain a higherreduction in daily person trips from all other

telecommunications applications, based on poli-cies, and actions that go beyond the 1994 plan.(The new numerical objective is evolving throughthe analysis of alternatives developed for the1997 RTP).

1. Document mobility and access improvementsfrom teleservice, telework, and telelogistics,as well as resulting emission reduction andenergy conservation results.

2. Identify barriers to telecommunicationsdeployment, and action(s) to eliminate or ameliorate.

3. Establish disaster preparation, travel savingtelework and teleservice procedures that arewell exercised routinely in normal conditionsand which are immediately available to keeporganizations operating in the aftermath ofearthquakes, storms, and other transportationdisturbances.

4. Assist transportation planners to begin using atelecommunications activity time series andforecast process that is comparable to the trip volume time series used by regional transportation planners.

Mission, Goals, and Objectives of the Strategy

Southern California Association of Governments32 Southern California Association of Governments

6. Strategy Assumptions

The Telecommunications Deployment Strategydescribed in this document was formulated undera number of assumptions:

1. Telecommunications deployment is alreadyoccurring in Southern California, driven by organi-zations of all types seeking revenue enhance-ment, cost reduction, productivity improvement,or customer service gains through using telecom-munications infrastructure, network attachments,and services that are offered by a dynamic andgrowing telecommunications sector.

2. As a result of organizations and individualspursuing benefits in their own interest, telecom-munications deployment can yield enhanced eco-nomic development, an improved quality of life,and other public benefits.

3. Mobility enhancement (improved accessibilityand alternative accessibility) can be an importantpublic benefit of telecommunications deploy-ment.

4. But, mobility enhancement is usually not asought goal in market-driven telecommunicationsdeployment. Mobility enhancement is usually nomore than a side effect, or incidental conse-quence. Other organizational and personal goalsare usually the drivers, such as service improve-ments, lower costs, increased competitiveness,and greater worker productivity. This assumptionis in line with the thrust of Caltrans' WorkSmartproject, which finds business goals to be the mainmotivation for telework practices, and treatstransportation impacts as consequences [8].

5. Even with those telecommunications applica-tions that have not had mobility impacts consid-ered in their design, positive or negative trip gen-eration impacts are a frequent result. Thus anytelecommunications application can be assessedfor mobility impacts. The TelecommunicationsDeployment Strategy planned here can find unin-tended, unplanned mobility benefits in telecom-munications applications, and seek ways toexpand those kinds of applications. At the sametime, the process described here seeks to avoidemphasizing telecommunications applicationsthat tend to increase vehicle mobility demands,even those these applications may have otherpositive individual or organizational benefits.

6. The Southern California regional public interestlies in changing the presently ongoing path of

telecommunications deployment to increase thefocus on mobility enhancement. In order to savetravel, telecommunications must be focused onthose particular applications, such as telecom-muting and certain kinds of teleservice, that actu-ally replace trips, Exhibit 15.

7. Shared understanding by civic leadership andthe general public of how the present path oftelecommunications deployment is influencingaccess and mobility is generally lacking. Forexample, the words "telecommuting" and"telecommunications" are frequently confused.Beyond the officials in the organizations that havebeen involved in the development of this strategy,public policy leadership understanding is not nowat a level sufficient to take wise action. An under-standing of which parts of telecommunicationsneed to be emphasized in order to achieve mobili-ty benefits is a necessary first step in the strategydescribed here.

8. This strategy is targeted to an audience of peo-ple who are willing to deepen their understandingof the issue of telecom-travel interaction, andwho are in a position to take action by initiatingor supporting applications development/deploy-ment projects. This audience would be thosedirectly involved in telecommunications applica-tion development from any perspective, includingprofessionals at all levels working in the informa-tion services (IS) functions of organizations, man-agers in client divisions and departments that are

TelecomApplications

TelecomTechnology

Exhibit 15: Sharp Focus Needed for Travel Savingsfrom Telecommunications


serviced IS, higher-level managers and boardmembers who make decisions regarding telecom-munications deployment projects, consultants tosuch projects, and vendor-suppliers in all relatedtelecommunications hardware, software, and ser-vices. Also, public sector officials who are in aposition to remove or ameliorate identified road-blocks to such projects are to be engaged inimplementing the strategy. The Strategy attemptsto influence their thinking to include considera-tion of regional mobility effects.

9. Regional strategic action(s) can be designed towork broadly across many kinds of telecommuni-cations technologies, users and trip purposes.While the wireless communications industry isassociated with the support of physical mobility,there may be particular applications of wirelesscommunications that tend to save on travel; thesecan be found and emphasized as part of the pre-sent strategy.

10. A regional strategic marketing process fortelecommunications deployment acceleration canbe implemented within the existing organizationalstructure for the Southern California EconomicPartnership and the Telecommunications Cluster.There is no need for new organizational forms.

11. The Telecommunications Deployment Strategy(TDS) is designed to be effective at any level ofresources, even a low level of resources, or a levelthat fluctuates. In addition, the strategy is to beupwardly scaleable to a relatively high level ofresources, should leadership choose to empha-size telecommunications deployment in the yearsahead.

The TDS influences and amplifies private sectortelecommunications applications developmentand deployment activity. It supports theAssociation of Governments and the EconomicPartnership professional staff working in anexpandable broker role between organizationsthat can contribute part of a solution to SouthernCalifornia traffic.

12. The TDS is to be designed to be effective evenin the state of telecommunications industryuncertainty and likely turbulence that will bebrought on by the impact of the recently enactedFederal Telecommunications Act of 1996.

The present Strategy's focus on telecommunica-tions applications that meet the needs of userorganizations is one way of remaining effective;these are likely to change more slowly thantelecommunications industry products, services,and competition.

The strategy described here is based on a profes-sional staff process of screening through existingtelecommunications applications to find thosewith the strongest mobility enhancement effects.These applications would be analyzed andgrouped to find common issues that theTelecommunications Cluster could addressthrough the elimination of barriers and the initia-tion of marketing programs.

The Strategy presented here was chosen to beimplemented ahead of other alternativeapproaches that have been discussed by regionaland state policy leadership and that flow from dif-ferent assumptions. These alternatives -- each ofwhich may emerge later as appropriate for imple-mentation by the Telecommunications Cluster asa result of analysis and discussion of the barriersto existing travel-saving applications -- include:

1. Creating comprehensive inventories of telecom-munications products, telecommunications ser-vices, or telecommunications infrastructure inSouthern California. Such inventories can be diffi-cult and expensive to create, and they have ashort period of usefulness. They should be con-ducted only when needed to solve a critical prob-lem or illuminate a priority issue related to theadvancement of mobility-enhancing telecommuni-cations applications. As an example, an inventoryof available modems in Southern California isimportant if the creation of such an inventory ispertinent to expanding the deployment of a classof telecommunications application that is impor-tant to telecommuting, teleshopping, or someother mobility enhancement that is selected foremphasis by the Telecommunications Cluster.Similarly, the work of compiling an inventory offiberoptic or coaxial cable connections toSouthern California residential premises shouldbe delayed until the Telecommunications Clusterstaff and Advisory Group determine that havingsuch an inventory is directly pertinent to promot-

Alternatives considered


ing the deployment of mobility-improvingtelecommunications applications.

2. Immediately selecting particular telecommuni-cations hardware items for inclusion in a con-sumer marketing plan. The selection of particularhardware for marketing emphasis by a govern-ment-sponsored partnership is premature untiltargeting judgments are made that focus on thetelecommunications applications with the highestmobility impacts. Consumers and users maketheir choices in a market environment that is toocomplex for attempting a private-public partner-ship's consultant or committee choice of winners.

3. Immediately selecting particular network infra-structure components -- such as fiber optics, com-munity networks, or telecenters -- for marketingand technical assistance efforts. Judgments onwhich infrastructure components are blocking themost important mobility-enhancing applicationsare premature until the most important mobility-enhancing applications are actually determined.

4. Immediately selecting particular user indus-tries and associated applications (such as tele-health or distance learning) for focused technicaland policy assistance. Instead, the recommendedapproach is to match applications with trip pur-poses that people would rather avoid, or thatorganizations find excessively costly, and let theapplications and industries to be focused uponemerge from this process.

5. Establishing a broadly focused brokering func-tion along the lines of Smart Valley in the SanFrancisco Bay area, the San Diego Cities of theFuture program, or the Davis CommunityNetwork. These other groups pursue a variety ofimportant community objectives through the con-nection of technology providers, serviceproviders, applications developers, and endusers. The origins of the Southern CaliforniaEconomic Partnership, on the other hand, aretightly connected to alternatives to vehicle travel,rather than the broad promotion of telecommuni-cations. The work of the Economic Partnership isplanned here to have a more precise targetingthan the "smart regions" approaches taken else-where in California.

The Partnership's plan recognizes that the soci-etal benefits of telecommunications deployment

go beyond mobility and access. Depending on theapplication, these additional benefits includemore efficient, effective, and equitable healthcare, education, public safety, and general gov-ernment services, overall regional competitive-ness, job creation, local business opportunity,and quality of life generally. But the mobility andaccess goals are the narrower, more difficult goalsto achieve, and if they are to be achieved, theyneed to be pursued directly and forthrightly. Inmany cases, telecommunications applicationsthat yield travel savings and improved access alsoyield other societal benefits. The reverse is not asoften true. It is easy to conceive of telecommuni-cations applications that provide individual, orga-nizational, or societal benefits while increasingthe demand for physical travel. Cellular phones inautomobiles, online networks that describeattractive places and events, and telecommunica-tions access provided in locations physicallyremote from likely users are examples.

7. Description of the Strategy

The Telecommunications Deployment Strategy(TDS) amounts to selective, interventionalengagement by public interests in ongoing,robust market activity to change the operationand result of that activity, for example, to help thetelecommunications industry to cause moretelecommuting applications to be purchased andused sooner and better than would be the casewithout the intervention. The public interest ofmobility enhancement is represented and carriedout by the professional staff at The Partnershipand the Association of Governments, under theguidance of the SCAG Regional Council and ThePartnership Board.

In response to the mobility challenges and thetelecommunications deployment opportunity, theTDS establishes two parallel, mutually supportingprocesses: One is the Strategic marketing Processcarried out by The Partnership. The other is anAnalysis and Planning process performed by theAssociation of Governments. These two process-es, shown in Exhibit 22, create policy to influencethe ongoing market process of telecommunica-tions development, through the emergence of amass market of telecommunications that causesaccelerated deployment of telecommunications,resulting in a new regional telecom-travel mix.

The Plan strives to motivate the private sectortoward investing more in mobility enhancement.A simplified schematic of the telecommunicationsmarketplace is shown in the Exhibit 16.

In white is the basic process flow of the industry:The value of products and services leads to sales.Sales result in profits that lead to opportunitiesfor deciding on new investments that improveorganizational performance. A track record of per-formance improvement leads to higher perceivedvalue of the underlying products and services,and further sales.

The step in shading shows the opportunity foradditional decision-making and incrementalinvestment in the specific telecommunicationsproducts, services, infrastructure, and applica-tions that explicitly achieve enhanced mobilityand access, in addition to organizational perfor-mance benefits like customer service and lowercosts. Causing user organizations and the

telecommunications industry to focus on mobilityenhancement is a key goal of the Strategy.

An important part of this focusing will be aresearch and analysis process that links telecom-munications applications to changes in travelbehavior. The scores of existing telecommunica-tions applications (see Exhibit 11) need to be ana-lyzed for their travel impact potential and a selec-tion made of which applications to emphasize inCluster activity. After an applications emphasis ischosen, the Cluster will work on a program ofactivity that accelerates the overall implementa-tion of these particular applications.

The Strategy foundation is a growing understand-ing based on analysis of what is working in mobil-ity-enhancing telecommunications applications,along with a well developed strategic marketingeffort designed to meet the needs of this region.

The TDS sets up a process for collecting, organiz-ing, analyzing, disseminating and otherwiseresponding to existing examples of telecommuni-cations applications that enhance mobility. Theseexamples of best practice are now being imple-mented in the marketplace in response to individ-ual, household, business, and governmentdemand for better performance that is largelyuncoordinated with mobility issues.

To achieve a regional focus on mobility issuesassociated with telecommunications, the TDS isto build and use a common, shared KnowledgeBase of telecommunications application experi-ence.

Assembling a Knowledge Base of case studies isan important first step in deciding how to acceler-ate the deployment of such applications. Thestructure and organization of the Knowledge Baseevolves over time in coordination with theTelecommunications Cluster participants.

Information in the Knowledge Base is arrangedinto ten categories. The categories establishedhere fit into a generic process model of howTelecommunications applications evolve overtime. That model is presented as a flow chart inExhibit 17.

Categories of knowledge to be Assembled

A Plan to Achieve the Vision

35TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT JULY, 1996


Exhibit 16: The Telecommunications Cluster Adds a Second Loop to the Cycle of Value Creation

VALUE of telecomindustry products and services to

telecom users

SALES to users to buildtheir telecom applications

PROFITS to telecom industry

companies and to users

DECISION-MAKINGon new investment for

performance improvement

INCREMENTALINVESTMENT in selected

telecom that ALSOenhances

mobility & access

INVESTMENT in newtelecom products,

services and applications

IMPROVED user performance from

telecom applications


Exhibit 17: Process Flow of Telecommunications Application Development and Deployment, and KnowledgeBase Categories

Vendors productsand services (8)

Projectidentification (2)

Planned projects (3)

Projects inprocess (4)

Completed projects (5)Issues and barriers (10)

Available technicalassistance (9)

Positive project outcomes (6)

Negative projectoutcomes (7)

Projectevaluation

Begin here: Travel-related benefits of

telecom applications (1)

Feedback loop:successsful exam-ples motivatedemands for extend-ing applications toother organizations,in other locationsand for other trippurposes.

Numbers in parenthesesrefer to the description inthe accompanying text

+

-


◆ Improved customer service.

◆ More productivity: improved ratio of output toinput

◆ Higher quality of service or product.

◆ Compliance with government regulations forinformation collection and record keeping,notification, timely performance

◆ Competitiveness: matching or exceeding acompetitor

2. Potential telecommunications applicationsdevelopment/deployment projects that organiza-tions have identified. Examples:

◆ Library identification of electronic access to itsresource catalog from home and businesslocations.

◆ A bank that is contemplating establishing elec-tronic home banking as a competitiveresponse to other initiatives in the financialservices industry.

3. Telecommunications applications develop-ment/deployment projects that organizations areplanning now. Examples:

◆ A hospital that is writing the RFP for procure-ment of hardware and network services for themonitoring of patients who are recoveringfrom surgery at home.

◆ A community college that is in the process ofdesigning a distance learning program for mid-dle managers that reaches corporationemployees at their desks in local businessoffices.

◆ The Association of Governments GeographicInformation System (GIS) Computer ACCESSProgram that is planning to deploy computersin public locations to provide access toAssociation maintained information.

4. Telecommunications applications develop-ment/deployment projects that are in the processof implementation now. Examples:

◆ A local government agency that is in theprocess of linking some of its internal databases

1. Identified travel-related benefits of telecommu-nications applications, some of which could bemet through new telecommunications applica-tions development/deployment (TADD) projects.

A beginning list of examples of such demands areas follows:

◆ "Replace Boring, Routine Trips With ElectronicSubstitutes." Electronic delivery alternativesto routine, scheduled appointments of anytype encountered in service delivery and infor-mation access that would otherwise require avehicle trip to a physical office.

◆ "Meet Electronically (Not Physically!) WithColleagues and Customers You Already Know."Teleconferencing procedures to replace vehicletrips by workers to off-site business locations.

◆ "Step Out Electronically From Places WhereYou Already Go." Electronic access providedwithin shopping malls, libraries, and communi-ty centers to other Southern California ser-vices that would otherwise require a separatevehicle trip.

◆ "Know Before You Go." More easy ways to usethe telephone or other communications ser-vices to evaluate the usefulness of physicaltravel to a service delivery or meeting destina-tion before setting out.

◆ "I Can See Your Face From Where I Am, So WhyVisit?" Instead of climbing in a car, use a wide-ly available, inexpensive, standardized, fullcolor, full motion, video phone that works overexisting telephone lines or cable TV connec-tions.

◆ "Why Get Hassled in Traffic Going to The Mall,When I Can Buy Products While Sitting atHome and Have my Purchase Delivered?"Electronic, on-line shopping as a replacementfor going physically to a retail location.

We fully recognize that travel-related issues arerarely the main driver of TADD projects. Non-traveldemands like the following are usually moreimportant to organizations than travel saving:

◆ Cost saving: labor, materials, facility space, energy


to the computer of an Internet servicesprovider in order to offer 24 hour per dayaccess by the public to vital records.

◆ A small retail chain that is building an on-lineshopping service on the Internet as a growthalternative to opening more branch locationsaround the Southern California region.

5. Recently completed projects, that can be evalu-ated as to their trip-related effects. Examples:

◆ A private building security company that hasinstalled video monitoring in a dozen clientlocations under contract for 24 hour protectionfrom intrusion, fire, and other threats.

◆ A business services sales organization thathas shut down three floors of office space in adowntown office tower in order to put its com-puter and cellphone-equipped sales force clos-er to customers.

6. Completed projects that are successful accord-ing to the organization that executed them, andthat in addition can be shown to reduce physicaltravel in the Southern California region.Examples:

◆ A county-wide criminal justice system thatuses video arraignments to save thousands ofpolice hours and several million vehicle milesper year.

◆ A utility agency that is actively marketing auto-matic monthly withdrawal of billed chargesfrom customer checking accounts, simultane-ously with shutting down its payment windowlocations where citizens could hand carry theirpayments.

7. Completed projects that may or may not besuccessful to the organization that implementedthem, but that turn out to be disappointing intheir travel saving results. Also, projects go herethat save travel, but that are unsuccessful overallto the implementing organization because ofother criteria. Examples:

◆ An unnamed telemarketing operation that isabandoning its attempt to operate a distrib-uted call center operation where many work-stations were located in employees' homes.

◆ An on-line shopping service that is withdrawnfrom the market because of a lack of con-sumer response.

8. Telecommunications-related hardware, soft-ware, and services that are offered by vendors ascomponent inputs to TADD projects. This data-base amounts to an ongoing inventory of the par-ticular technology components that the StrategicPlan is aimed at deploying. Examples:

◆ Network services offered by Pacific Bell, GTECalifornia, Continental CableVision, PacificLightwave, Nextel Communications, and others.

◆ Internet services offered by Earthlink Network,Inc., Netcom, MCI, and others.

◆ Software offered by PerformigenceCorporation, Quarterdeck, Microsoft, and others.

◆ Video communications hardware offered byAlpha Systems Laboratory, Vivo, Intel, and others.

9. Consulting and other technical assistance (nottied to specific products) that is available to helporganizations in planning and implementing TADDprojects. Examples:

◆ Multimedia development services offered byAccess Media and others.

◆ Telework Facilities Exchange development ser-vices offered by Siembab & Associates, andothers.

◆ Training services in telecommuting offered bythe Southern California TelecommutingPartnership, and others.

10. Issues (including barriers and unnecessarycosts) relevant to the implementation of TADDprojects that go beyond the influence of any oneorganization. Examples:

◆ Specific regulatory issues and barriers, suchas the Brown Act in California.

◆ Technology gaps.

◆ Technical assistance gaps.

◆ Societal downsides, such as the reports thatcommunicating mobile information technolo-


gies are causing longer working hours at theexpense of time available for family andfriends.[9]

The most prevalent record type will be the casestudy of a telecommunications application development/deployment (TADD) project. Eachcase study will follow a standardized format andbe three to four pages in length, as shown inExhibit 18.

Examples of case study entries for the KnowledgeBase are provided in (Appendix B.)

Other standardized formats can be developed forlistings of technology products and services thatare component parts of applications, and of tech-nical assistance offerings that are available tosupport the development of applications.

Other inventories can be conducted as needed inresponse to analysis of applications yielding bar-riers, opportunities, and issues worthy of Clusterattention. Examples of supplementary inventoriesthat may eventually prove useful include infra-structure systems (telephone company facilities,cable TV facilities, wireless facilities); attachednetwork terminals (kiosks, home computers, pub-lic internet access points, set-top boxes for televi-sions); content providers (local governments,regional retailers, health services, higher educa-tion systems); and market channels (consumerelectronics retailers, value-added dealers in spe-cific vertical markets, neighborhood training cen-ters). Such inventories should not be conductedhowever unless they are part of addressing anissue that is identified as blocking the deploy-ment of mobility-enhancing applications.

A main criterion for putting a particular TADD pro-ject into the Knowledge Base is that the projectoperates in a way that is likely to have positiveimpact on accessibility by providing alternativesor improvements. Another way of saying this isthat its operation carries with it the logic of mobil-ity improvement.

Other criteria include availability of data, willing-ness of the project sponsor to provide data, and

involvement of private sector vendors in publiciz-ing the project. Vendors promote their own prod-ucts and services by describing and disseminat-ing case studies of successful applications devel-opment/deployment projects.

Building and using a successful telecommunica-tions application (a World Wide Web site on theInternet) can be a primary information manage-ment and dissemination tool for the TDS.

The structure and format of the model flow chartand the underlying information in the ten cate-gories provide content suitable for building a Website. When arranged as a flow chart (see Exhibit17 earlier), the information categories describethe steps in a process model of how TADD pro-jects can be emphasized by the EconomicPartnership and carried out by individual organi-zations in the Region.

The World Wide Web site should be made avail-able at public access sites (libraries, communitycenters, schools, lobbies of government build-ings) throughout the six-county Region. The exist-ing Association of Governments GIS ComputerACCESS Program is a potential vehicle for doingthis, see (Appendix B.)

At the information layer just below the top-levelflow chart, information should be presented instructured, categorized, indexed formats. Hot but-ton linkages can be created to take users to otherWeb sites that are operated under the control ofvendors and other parties.

The World Wide Web is a good tool for dissemi-nating the TDS Knowledge Base because of itsgrowing use in the economy generally. There is agrowing private sector industry that builds under-standing, acceptance, usage, and technical sup-port of users of the Internet through private sec-tor initiatives. The newspaper industry, the bank-ing industry, the public library community, thepublic schools, the home computer industry, andthe consumer on-line services industry are active-ly taking steps to build Web usage. For example,libraries and public schools are installing more

Criteria for choosing case studies for the Knowledge Base

Organization and dissemination of knowledge in a

World Wide Web Site


Web access with each passing month. As anotherexample, home computer manufacturers arebundling modems and Web access software toolswith every home computer sold. The recommend-ed TDS Web Site rides on these existing efforts,and does not contemplate incorporating addition-al action to build Internet usage, except possiblyfor participation in the Association ofGovernments ACCESS program following neces-sary approvals.

The Web site for information dissemination hasthe secondary benefit of reaching population seg-ments that are younger, well-educated, highincome, and open to new ideas. These people arelikely to be naturally high in vehicle trip genera-tion, but also able to understand, buy, and usetechnological alternatives.

There could be two information input buffers inthe Web site.

◆ An input buffer where any and all can offercommentary and additions. This input bufferwill be evaluated and massaged by staff intoadditions to the above categories. The inputbuffer will be available for all to see.

◆ A private input buffer for TelecommunicationsCluster Advisory Group and forthcoming Sub-Cluster Group members who are working inparticular user industries. This input locationwould be similar to the public one, only notvisible to the general public, again out ofwhich information will be moved to one of theten organized databases under the flow chartelements.

This Web site once implemented would providethe data structure and central information clear-inghouse function for the execution of theStrategic Telecommunications TechnologyDeployment Plan.

The World Wide Web site would have the flowchart on or near the top level. Users would clickon a box in the flow chart to see the particulardatabase of information "underneath."

The proposed Knowledge Base Web site providesan additional forum for expanding relationshipsbetween telecommunications technology suppli-ers and users.

To create a continuing long-term learning andfocusing process that will cause the right incre-mental telecommunications investments to bemade by both the vendor industry and the usersof telecommunications who build applications,the Telecommunications Deployment Strategy hasan Analysis & Planning process that incorporatesthese steps:

1. Build a Knowledge Base: Identify naturally-aris-ing, market-driven telecommunications applica-tions in Southern California or elsewhere thatinfluence mobility in the direction of trip reduc-tion and alternative electronic accessibility. Thiscompilation of applications is at the heart of theAnalysis and Planning process, as shown inExhibit 19.

2. Analyze applications: Select and analyze themost promising of the specific projects identifiedin the previous step to quantify actual mobilityimpacts. An example of a specific project is LosAngeles County Superior Court contracting withthe vendor Ameritech Corporation for the provi-sion of interactive court services, enabling lawfirms to file and retrieve documents electronically,as well as search documents and civil indexes. Inthinking through this specific application, aseries of questions must be considered: Howmuch trip saving will this particular applicationaccomplish? How much trip making can be influ-enced by implementing interactive court servicesin all of the courts in Southern California? Howdoes expanding this application compare in tripimpacts with other applications?

One point of the analysis is to link dominant trippurposes to telecommunications applications.How this could be done is shown in the matrixillustrated in Exhibit 20.The focus of this matrix ison aggregation of common barriers and issuesacross multiple applications in order to determinethe leverage points where theTelecommunications Cluster should push andtake further action to accelerate telecommunica-tions deployment. A key criteria for selectingapplications for such further action is a judgmenton the degree to which they do something posi-

Steps in the Analysis & Planning Process

of the Strategy


Exhibit 18: Format of telecommunications application case studies in the TelecommunicationsCluster Knowledge Base

◆ Title of project

◆ Contact person, address, phone

Electronic addresseselectronic mailhot link to further on-line documentationhot link to the application itself, if available.

◆ Application type. Examples: telecommuting,teleshopping, public safety

◆ Implementing organization(s)

◆ Mission: Mission/business of the organizationsinvolved

◆ Date when project became operational

◆ Purpose of the application

◆ Description of users (if workers: job titles, func-tions; if consumers: geographic location, demo-graphics)

◆ Number of users

◆ Total potential universe of users in SouthernCalifornia region

◆ Equity considerations: Describe how this appli-cation differs in its market acceptance acrosseconomically advantaged and economically dis-advantaged people. Also, describe whetherthere is a public interest in promoting accessand use of the application by economically dis-advantaged people.

◆ Application accomplishments: Focusing on whatthe implementers are seeking, and spinoffs thatmay or may not have been anticipated.

◆ Description of the chain of events leading tomobility impacts

Example: customers receive what they need at home and don't have to come to the service center.

Example: couriers are no longer used to move the data files between offices

◆ Quantification of mobility impacts

◆ Technology overview

◆ Availability of the application to mitigate theeffects of earthquakes and other transportationsystem disruptions.

◆ Technology vendors and technical assistanceproviders

◆ Facility location

◆ Facility location changes associated with thisproject (if any)

◆ Block diagram of the application, emphasizinggeographic locations and information flows thatreplace physical travel

◆ Costs

◆ Sources of funds

◆ Economic indicators vis a vis technology users and technology suppliers

jobssalesprofitsnew companies formedunits soldemployment mix

◆ Market size: Estimated Southern California mar-ket size for this application, and present marketpenetration of implementations of this applica-tion, including this example and all other exam-ples.

◆ Issues and barriers: Those overcome, those stillhindering, and those anticipated


tive for reducing trips and improving mobility. Theeventual effect of the various actions that theTelecommunications Cluster takes amounts to thedelta in telecommunications deployment andresultant travel impacts that amounts to the dif-ference between the baseline and the RTP "Plan."

Looking more closely at Exhibit 21, the matrix isan outline for the process of taking the next ana-lytic steps after compiling case studies for theKnowledge Base of applications. Travel destina-tions, travel purposes, and telecommunicationsapplications that serve those destinations andpurposes are listed toward the left side of thematrix. The matrix is filled in illustratively acrossthe row describing travel to government build-ings. The squares of the matrix are analytic cate-gories and steps, where more information may bedeveloped than can fit into a small space.

Several telecommunications applications thatcould replace trips to government buildings areindicated in the column in the middle of thematrix titled "Example applications in theKnowledge Base." The applications, which aredescribed in Appendix B, are the DavisCommunity Network and the Association ofGovernments ACCESS project. To the right of thatentry are listed a number of characteristics andissues related to these two applications. Partiallyfilled in for the example, these characteristics andissues include travel savings potential, economicimpacts, social impacts, and a number of poten-tial barriers -- specifically, human awareness andskill gaps, unknowns reducible through research,local government regulations, federal and stategovernment barriers, infrastructure, service avail-ability, and user equipment barriers.

Exhibit 19: Analysis and Planning Process of the Strategy (Knowledge Base) Has Many Facets

Technicalassistanceforum

Citizen & businessinput forum

Revenuegeneration

World WideWeb Site

Mobility impactmeasurement

Economicbenefitmeasurement

Vendormarketingchannel

Sets TelecomCluster Agenda

Tracks telecommarketplace


Exhibit 20: Draft Analysis Tool for Determining Best Opportunity Targets for Telecom Cluster Action

Place of High Reporting to Work Commuters 1 Telecommuting from Home 6.3% ofdaily work Commute

Trips

Place of High Reporting to Work Commuters 2 Telecommuting from an Alternative Officedaily work

Shopping High Going Shopping Shoppers 3 Mall Shopper Information Network: check stockMalls availability, parking, and crowds before you go.

Shopping High Going Shopping Shoppers 4 Once there, use kiosks to reach other servicesMalls and avoid other stops.

Shopping High Going Shopping Shoppers 5 Remote electronic tele-shopping and home Malls delivery

Worksites, Medium Face- to-face Professional 6 All modes of teleconferencing: audio, video,Restaurants interaction Workers document, whiteboardother during work dayBusinessMeetingVenues

College & Medium Reaching a Learning Adult 7 Wider access to course offerings through University Environment Students Networked ClassroomsCampuses

College & Medium Retrieving Learning Adult 8 Remote access to library, study groups, other University Resources Students resourcesCampuses

College & Medium Going to place of Adult 9 Remote registrationUniversity registration StudentsCampuses

High Schools medium Reaching off-site Adolescent 10 Remote access to course offerings and resources students resources

Medical medium Going to a health Patients 11 Reduce patient visits by remote consultation, Offices care facility monitoring treatment

Medical medium Going between Medical 12 Transmission of medical diagnostic images; remote Offices medical facilities personnel participation in procedures (tele-surgery, etc.)

Libraries low Retrieval of Customers 13 On-line catalogs and electronic document access documents

Workplaces, low Delivery of a Many worker 14 Electronic transmission, verification, signatures Homes physical document types & couriers

Customers & Low Face-to-face Outside sales 15 Pre-visit remote monitoring and qualification. Prospects in sales calls professionals Electronic interaction for followup. Sales the Field literature on line.(Industrial &Business Sales)

Grocery Low Buying groceries Shoppers 16 Electronic ordering and home deliveryStores

Cinemas, Low Entertainment & Video Rentals, recreation Consumers 17 Enticing, in-home telecom-based Arcades alternatives to going out

Government Low Obtain forms, Customers: 18 Remote government information retrieval Davis Fax on A KEY StructuralBuildings maps, other business from homes, business, and additional Community demand; RESULT employment

people public places (CELLE TO THE RIGHT FILLED Net; e-mail; FROM shifts; and ordinary IN AS AN EXAMPLE TO SHOW HOW ACCESS Internet CARRYING reducedcitizens THE KNOWLEDGE BASE CAN Project Web; OUTTHE governmental

BE ANALYZED) Community PROCESS spending andNetworks workload

burden

Government Low Attend hearings Customers: 19 Remote viewing and participation in hearings Buildings and events and other events

Government Low Access service Customers: 20 Teleservice transactions from homes and Buildings transactions public kiosks

Banks, Low Obtain cash & Customers: 21 Teller machines everywhere. Credit and Financial make deposits debit cards as cash substitutes. Direct Services electronic deposit.

Banks, Low Apply for loans, Customers: 22 Remote applications by mail, telephone, fax, Financial open accounts computer modem, kioskServices

Prospective Low Pick up applications, Job-seekers 23 Electronic access to position listings. Video Employers, go to job interviews. screening interviews.Job-Hunt Stops

Real estate Low Visit and show listed Prospects; 24 On-line photos for screening before touring for Sale or properties real estate and showing.Rent with agentsListing Agents

Travel Estimated Travel Purpose Traveler Code Telecommunications Applications for Mobility Example Technologies Southern PositiveDestination Relative Target and Access Enhancement (Taken from the Applications used and California and

Share of Knowledge Base) in the Regional/ Travel NegativeDaily Trips Knowledge National Saving Economicfor this Base Market Potential, ImpactsDestination 2020Type


Place of daily work

Place of daily work

ShoppingMalls

ShoppingMalls

ShoppingMalls

Worksites, Restaurantsother BusinessMeetingVenues

College &University Campuses



High Schools

Medical Offices

Medical Offices

Libraries

Workplaces, Homes

Customers &Prospects in the Field(Industrial &Business Sales)

Grocery Stores

Cinemas, Video Rentals,Arcades

Government Better Among Status of Obsolete None None Home Consumer Lack of A KEY Numbers 13, Intergovern- Transfer of A KEY A KEYBuildings service to government standards; statutory computers formulation government RESULT 14, 15, 20, 22, mental technology RESULT RESULT

citizens officials & state of requirements & fax of investment FROM 23 development from leading FROM FROMconsumers the art for physical machines information dollars CARRYING projects business CARRYING CARRYING

access efforts needs, OUTTHE sharing of focus of OUTTHE OUT THEdesign of PROCESS successful mainstream PROCESS PROCESSpresentation methods marrketinginterfaces

GovernmentBuildings

GovernmentBuildings

Banks,FinancialServices

Banks,FinancialServices

ProspectiveEmployers,Job-Hunt Stops

Real estate for Sale or Rent with Listing Agents

Travel Societal Awareness Unknowns Local State & Federal Telecommunications Telecommunications End user Human Other Grade the Other Options Options Conclusion ConclusionDestination impacts gaps reducible government government infrastructure service barriers skill barriers overall applications for for public private

mobility, through regulatory caused barriers availability barriers potential for with public private sector sectoraccess, & research involvement barriers barriers improvement similarities, sector sector action actioneconomic via Telecom synergies action action

Cluster Action

Potential barriers that could be focus for Telecom Cluster Intervening Action

These cells would be filled in with information from the Knowledge Base

from professional staff research at The Association, and

from Telecommunications Cluster Advisory Group deliberations


Columns further to the right indicate a place tograde the applications for the overall potential forexpanded, accelerated improvement via theStrategy, and a place to make the linkage to othertelecommunications applications with similarcharacteristics and barriers. This last columnwould be filled after a number of applications areanalyzed. The bottom line on the whole processcomes further over to the right with a column tolist options for public sector action and optionsfor private sector action. The final two columns on the right are the place where decisions to take action in the public or private sectors can be indicated.

3. Determine leverage points: From the analysisof specific projects, determine the characteristicsof the telecommunications applications that pro-duce trip reductions. These characteristics arepotential leverage points for further action by theTelecommunications Cluster. For example, whattechnologies produce the greatest trip savings?What are the characteristics of trip types that aremost amenable to substitution? Do organizationalcharacteristics matter? Are there geographic factors?

These evaluated projects can yield the barriersand gaps that are the most worthwhile targets forattention and action by the TelecommunicationsCluster. Addressing these barriers and gaps willexpand the number and enhance the quality ofsuch projects, and thus improve mobility.

For example, assume that interactive court ser-vices is found to produce significant trip savings:Are there other courts in the six-county regionthat have not yet implemented such services? Abarrier may be simple lack of awareness of thetechnological potential on the part of other courtadministrators. Are there collective public interestpolicies and activities that can be initiated andfacilitated by the Telecommunications Cluster orby the Association of Governments? For example,the professional societies of court administratorscould be the subject of educational and market-ing activity by the private sector suppliers oftelecommunications technology.

Furthermore, groups of project types sharingcommon technological characteristics need to beassessed for leverage points of public interestaction. For example, interactive court servicesmay be very similar to interactive services around

other government regulatory agencies and aroundprivate sector services like insurance, banking,and on-line shopping. When assessed, all ofthese applications may be found to be blocked byinfrastructure gaps, organizational readiness andcapacity gaps, or technology barriers such as lackof standards for electronic signatures that carrythe legal weight of blue ink on paper.

Interactive court services and related applicationsare only an example. The strategy consists of anevolving, increasingly more powerful and region-ally-inclusive work process of collecting manycase studies of telecommunications applicationsin the Knowledge Base, and then assessing thesecases for leverage points and action by the policymakers, and the stakeholders.

4. Design actions: Conceive, analyze, and choosethose specific public policies and actions thatwould cause more and better projects of the iden-tified type.

In the example of interactive court services, aneducation and marketing program could bedesigned by the Cluster in cooperation with tech-nology vendors. Or, because the SouthernCalifornia market is so large and significant, theTelecommunications Cluster might reasonablyform a task force to accelerate the developmentand implementation of an industry standard fordigital electronic document signatures (equivalentto signing with a pen on paper) that would sup-port a number of mobility-enhancing telecommu-nications applications that are currently blocked.The Smart Valley effort in the San Jose area hasworked on accelerating industry standards forelectronic transactions between firms.

Other barriers that conceivably, but not necessari-ly, stand in the way of telecommunications appli-cations development and deployment includeinadequate residential and commercial telecom-munications infrastructure, gaps in the provisionof common carrier services over the infrastruc-ture, inadequacies in information content provi-sion, insufficiently cost-beneficial network attach-ments (personal computers, smart televisions,etc.) available for purchase by households andbusinesses, lack of attention to user friendlinesson the part of applications developers, and insuf-ficiencies in availability of private or public invest-ment capital.


5. Facilitate implementation: Design and imple-ment those actions and policies by assigningresponsibilities and providing resources to carrythem out. Depending on the scope and scale ofthe selected activity, this step could be formida-ble. The sum of all such activities across all tar-geted telecommunications applications wouldconstitute a major share of the work program ofthe strategy.

6. Measure results: Track and evaluate actualmobility impacts that result. For example, if tripmaking in connection with courts is chosen as atarget for public policy and programs that acceler-ate the deployment of new telecommunicationsapplications, then the mobility effect of theseapplications as they are implemented across thecourts in the six Southland counties should betracked, measured, and assessed.

7. Input to planning: Findings from the stepsdescribed here would be continuously sharedwith the modeling staff at the Southern California

Association of Governments. By focusing on anunderstanding of telecommunications applica-tions' impacts on particular trip types, these pro-fessionals can develop a methodology to betterestimate and forecast the overall trip generationconsequences that result from telecommunica-tions technology development and applicationsthroughout the region. This methodology wouldbe used in the development of future editions ofthe Regional Transportation Plan

These steps are shown in the Exhibit 21 flowchart for the Telecommunications DeploymentStrategy. The flow chart illustrates that theStrategy funnels a large mass of technology andapplication possibilities down to a specific set ofhigh leverage initiatives in the marketplace. Theseinitiatives attempt in turn to spur a wide array ofprivate sector activity that yield a large impact onpatterns of movement and remote electronicaccess that substitutes for movement.

Exhibit 21: Telecommunications Deployment Strategy

Filter for mobility

applications

Determine critical issues

to pursue

Design policies &cooperative action

Facilitateimplementation

Track & evaluate tripvolume impacts

Adjust regionaltransportation

planning

Build knowledge base


8. 2020 Vision of tne Strategy

in Operation

Here is the TelecommunicationsDeployment Strategy 2020 vision formaking the Southern California region aleader in the use of telecommunicationsfor mobility enhancement:

1. Mobility enhancement is widely perceived as anavailable additional benefit of telecommunica-tions applications.

2. Users and vendors of telecommunications tech-nology understand how to use telecommunica-tions to enhance mobility, and consider thispotential as they sell and build applications.

3. Established information dissemination mecha-nisms exist for easily finding the details of howorganizations and people throughout SouthernCalifornia are using telecommunications to savetravel.

4. It is easy to find a wide array of professionaltechnical assistance in designing, building, andoperating telecommunications applications thatenhance mobility.

5. The rate of growth of operational applicationsthat are saving travel is greater in SouthernCalifornia than anywhere else in the world.

6. The use of telecommunications by people andorganizations for mobility enhancement hasreached critical mass penetration.

7. Transportation and telecommunications on anequal footing in comprehensive planning atAssociation of Governments, with recognition thatthey are complementary ways of fulfilling transac-tions, interactions, relationships, and informationexchanges.

8. The Association's social-economic-mobility-access real-time micro-simulation model of theSouthern California Region fully encompassestelecommunications as well as transportation.The operation of the model is fully visible to any-one via the World Wide Web.

9. Public sector planning to influence telecommu-nications deployment has to be based upon deepinsight and subtle indirect leverage. Operationaldata on telecommunications functioning is provid-ed as a matter of law to the Association for itssimulation model.

10. In the Southern California region an interna-tionally prominent network-enabled think-tankhas evolved, the Telecommunications MobilityInstitute, with senior fellows based worldwideworking on telecommunications-transportationrelationships. The core staff and the knowledgeserver are based in Southern California.

A more focused vision for the Association is thefollowing:

To achieve this vision, the Partnership'sTelecommunications Cluster intends to becomethe most authoritative, widely-known broker ofknow-how, skills, information, and otherresources for implementing mobility-enhancingtelecommunications applications. This statementwas developed by the TelecommunicationsCluster Advisory members at a November 8, 1995cluster meeting. The Cluster will continuouslybuild linkages to private sector firms which aremarketing products and services that implementthese applications. Continuing liaison and coop-eration with other mobility-focused developers oftelecommunications applications, for example,the Southern California TelecommutingPartnership, the Playa Vista Development, andthe San Diego Cities of the Future.


9. Benefits of the Strategy

1. Provides the focus of discussion and activity forthe Telecommunications Cluster participants,including the Advisory Group, and any othergroups that could emerge as needed; such as theSupport Cluster Groups, working groups, and taskteams.

2. Builds leadership understanding and consen-sus on how telecommunications deployment hap-pens, what would be a better pattern (path andpace) of deployment, and what should be done tomake that better pattern occur.

3. Establishes a foundation for analyzing anddetermining where and how a public-private part-nership should intervene to accelerate ongoingprocesses (infrastructure deployment, equipmentavailability, applications development, or humancapacity building) that would most efficientlyaccelerate ongoing telecommunications deploy-ment.

4. Defines the specific telecommunications mar-kets and product areas where theTelecommunications Cluster should focus formaximum impact.

5. Supports Association of Governments measure-ment and evaluation of telecommunicationsdeployment impacts.

The TDS provides for the creation of a KnowledgeBase of specific travel-saving projects that can bequantitatively evaluated for trip savings and thenextrapolated to area wide travel savings as a partof monitoring the performance of the RegionalTransportation Plan.

Focusing on quantifying the travel behaviorimpacts in a series of particular real worldtelecommunications applications would be help-ful in learning how to quantify telecommunica-tions impacts at a regional level. Judgments cannow be made about the likely future impacts oftelecommunications deployment on trip makinggenerally, but experienced analysts may vary sub-stantially in their prognoses, because of differingimplicit assumptions about the impact of individ-ual applications. The Strategy described here cor-rects this problem.

6. Provides an organized, research-based input tothe process of forming new Telecommunicationsworking groups.

7. Supports technical assistance to organizationsin telecommunications application development.

8. Links to the revenue and profit interests of theprivate sector.

The Knowledge Base will be full of case studies of telecommunications application develop-ment/deployment projects that are motivated bybusiness interests, including revenue and profitgeneration. The database also includes productand service offerings from the private sector. Thedatabase and its structuring provide a linkagebetween existing everyday business interests andthe Association/Partnership public policy intentof modifying access and mobility habits. Moredirectly, the proposed Internet Web disseminationof the database information amounts to the provi-sion of a new marketing channel for the privatesector suppliers to reach telecommunicationsapplications developers. Vendors have their prod-ucts and services listed in a neutral format, andthen the Information Center Web site would pro-vide for one-click hot links to vendors' own pro-motional, marketing, and ordering Web sites.

9. Support disaster preparation.

The Strategy recognizes that a focus on promot-ing telecommunications applications for mobilityenhancement in normal times simultaneouslyoffers a strategy for mitigating transportation dis-ruptions in the abnormal times of earthquakesand other transportation and organizational facili-ty disruptions. When the New York City WorldTrade Center was hit by a terrorist bombing sever-al years ago, the affected firms which coped bestwhen their offices were closed were the ones thatwere already practicing telecommuting.

49


10. Work Plan for

Strategy Implementation

This is the recommended work plan to follow inimplementing the TelecommunicationsDeployment Strategy described here.

Southern California Economic Partnership:Continue periodic meetings of theTelecommunications Advisory Group.The charter members of the Advisory Group arelisted in Exhibit 4 earlier. The private sector mem-bers were selected from telecommunications ser-vice firms serving a variety of telecommunicationsapplications, or otherwise having a broad view ofapplications. The Group also included public sec-tor officials and managers. The membership canbe augmented at any time to bring in memberswith more specialized perspectives that becomeimportant as particular groups of applications arechosen for attention.

The main continuing focus for the Advisory Groupshould be to provide advice and counsel to ThePartnership staff and board on how to influencethe dynamic telecommunications market toward agreater emphasis on mobility improvement.

Through an on going review process of applica-tions to determine groups of them that shouldand could be accelerated by removing barriers(such as infrastructure gaps), by providing techni-cal assistance, or by organizing additional mar-keting activity.

Candidate applications should be brought beforethe Advisory Group in a uniform format by a pro-fessional staff that documents applications in aconsistent fashion highlighting issues thatimpede deployment. The Advisory Group mem-bers themselves can provide input to the profes-sional staff on applications they know aboutstemming from the work of their organizations.

Partnership: Applies the same market develop-ment strategic planning to each of the five tech-nologies it has been given the mission to acceler-ate. The approach is multi-disciplinary, totallyintegrated, constantly evolving, and consists of:

Association : Establish a telecommunica-tions applications Planning & Analysis function.

This function at the Association, would providethe professional resources needed to documentapplications that collectively form a KnowledgeBase that guides Telecommunications Clusteractivity. The contents of this Knowledge Basebecomes part of the substantive content of theWeb site.

Two full-time equivalent analysts, one junior andone senior, are an appropriate starting level ofeffort for this function.

Association: Continue collecting information on existing telecommunicationsapplications.The Telecommunications Cluster needs to base itswork on an understanding of telecommunicationsapplications. This understanding requires asteady flow of data on existing applications.

A program of media and literature scanning couldbe one source of leads. The National InformationInfrastructure Awards program has alreadyoffered to provide leads to applications that claimtravel savings as an effect.

Also, a brochure could be created and distributedthat explains the kind of applications that theCluster is seeking, and the benefits in promotionand technical assistance that the Cluster offers inreturn to applications developers who provideinformation.

Association: Document case studies oftelecommunications applications accordingto the format described earlier.Documenting case studies means filling in thestandard template that organizes each KnowledgeBase entry with data from real world applications.

Association staff screen candidates for prelimi-nary prima facie indications of mobility enhance-ment effects. Staff further analyzes those thatappear to have mobility enhancement impacts inorder to verify and quantify these impacts.

Association: Analyze case studies oftelecommunications to find leverage pointsfor collective action by theTelecommunications Cluster.Staff collects and analyzes case studies with thegoal of finding common barriers that cut acrossseveral cases.

Work Plan steps


Association: Feed analysis results into theagenda of the Telecommunications AdvisoryGroup meetings for discussion and action.Results of the analysis that come out of the pre-ceding step should be in the form of identificationof barriers and opportunities for technical assis-tance or marketing action that are commonacross a group of telecommunications applica-tions. Options for action should be well reviewedand discussed at Advisory Group meetings.

Partnership: Establish working groups andtask teams to take barrier removal, coopera-tive marketing, and technical assistancesteps that emerge from the analysis ofapplications and deliberations of theAdvisory Group.These teams would be made up of stakeholdersin firms and government agencies that areinvolved in telecommunications deployment.

The teams could work on projects large andsmall, depending on what the analysis and theAdvisory Group deliberations determined weregood intervention steps to take. A small projectmight be aimed at correcting a technical problemin pending legislation in Sacramento or a citycouncil. A large project would be to create a part-nership between content providers, serviceproviders, communities, and customers to build anew travel-saving information service on a com-munity network service such as Valley-Net or theLos Angeles FreeNet.

Another possible large project for a workinggroup of the Telecommunications Cluster wouldbe facilitation of an infrastructure upgrade in aparticular geographic area. For example, a work-ing group could provide assistance in negotia-tions between a municipality and telecommunica-tions providers to leverage the procurement ofnew wiring for government facilities into the con-struction of a citywide high capacity network sup-porting interactive media transmission for allbusiness and some residential locations. End userequipment vendors might provide discounts tousers to provide incentives for use of the upgradecap[abilities. This upgrade could be coordinatedwith an accompanying research effort to measuretravel impacts upon users of new services andapplications that are made possible by theupgrade.

Another kind of project would be experimentsthat take an action that encompasses some logicof mobility improvement, but also some uncer-tainty as to the size of the impact. For example,suppose a special marketing effort for a telecom-munications service like ISDN were made in a lim-ited geographic area. The response of consumersto the offer could be measured, and then somesurvey work could be done among both takersand a control group of non-takers to discern whatchanges result in travel patterns.

Partnership: Create a TelecommunicationsModel City Starter KitIn line with an educational thrust developed inother Clusters of the Southern CaliforniaEconomic Partnership, the early findings from theanalysis of telecommunications applications andfollow-on deliberations of the Advisory Groupcould be turned into a "TelecommunicationsModel City Starter Kit" for municipal governmentofficials. The kit would be a booklet that would bedesigned to assist Southern California cities todecide upon and carry out a series of action stepsthat advance the deployment of telecommunica-tions applications by local businesses and otherorganizations, and by local government agenciesthemselves.

Following the emerging example of the ElectricVehicle Model City Starter Kit, a working outlinefor the Telecommunications Model City Starter Kitwould look like this:

◆ Why Become a Telecommunications Model City

◆ The Acts and Regulations SupportingTelecommunications Deployment

◆ The Key Players Supporting Your Participation

◆ The Key Programs Supporting YourParticipation

◆ Telecommunications Technology Update

◆ Support from Local TelecommunicationsService Providers

◆ Telecommunications Case Studies

◆ How to Become a Telecommunications ModelCity


◆ Funding Support Opportunities and TaxIncentives

◆ Telecommunications Model City Recognition

The subject of general telecommunications policyfor municipalities has been previously addressedby the California League of Cities in its ModelTelecommunications Policy. The topics covered inthe League's Model Policy are universal access,role of the city in regulatory structure, compensa-tion for use of public rights-of-way and negativeimpact on local infrastructure, cities asusers/providers of telecommunications services,adequate spectrum capacity for public safety andother public uses, FCC certification of local fran-chising authority, and privacy.[10] From the pointof view of this Plan, these are all general telecom-munications policy issues that need to be verifiedas important barriers to the deployment of trip-saving telecommunications applications. Not allof these issues will pass this test.

Following the thrust of the Partnership'sTelecommunications Deployment Strategy gener-ally, the Partnership's starter kit should addressaspects of telecommunications that bear onenhancing physical movement and electronicaccess, as opposed to the whole field of telecom-munications generally, which the League Policyattempts to address.

Partnership: Manage activities of the work-ing groups and task teams.Products of these activities could include workingwith one or more local municipalities to assistthem in carrying out the steps that are outlined inthe Model City Starter Kit just described. Whetheror not in the context of a model city, workinggroups could take steps to help cities promotemobility-enhancing telecommunications, such asthe use of the Internet to disseminate govern-ment information for which citizens would other-wise have to visit city hall, or residential housingand zoning codes that encourage telecommuting.

Association: Initiate special research projects as needed.Examples of such project include surveys of usersto validate findings from analysis of telecommuni-cations applications and special studies to incor-porate the effect of telecommunications applica-

tion deployment into transportation models, suchas the effects of the cashless society coming fromgrowing use of debit and credit cards.

1. Deployment education and guidance in the form of Model City Starter Kits that containinformation and implementation worksheets,and training and safety requirements and cur-riculum.

2. Workshops and outreach to generate additional interest and understanding of technology deployment.

3. Technology/industry identity creation and awareness generation (logos and slogans) to help give a singular identity, purpose and synergy to deployment activities.

4. Information distribution and networking sup-port creating a breakthrough, advertising-sup-ported consumer friendly Web Site, to encour-age feedback from stakeholders and as aclearing house of information.

5. Partnerships creation/brokering; and

6. Legislative initiative and actions to providetestimony on issues, and share potential direc-tion with stakeholders to assist with actionstrategies.

Association: Revise the regional transportation model to reflect the effects oftelecommunicationsThis topic is covered in a subsequent section ofthis report.

Association: Assess results of the Cluster,and revise the work plan accordingly.An overview of the Strategy in operation is shownin Exhibit 22, Public-Private Process to AccelerateTelecommunications Deployment. An Analysis andPlanning Process supports the agenda setting forthe Advisory Group meetings within the EconomicPartnership Process, which carries out actionsthat feed into the Market Process.


Exhibit 22: Public-Private Process to Accelerate Telecommunications Deployment

Analysis & PlanningProcess

The Association

Takes input of telecom applications from vendors and

other sources

Analyzes applications to verify and quantify mobility impacts

Screens applications for mobilityimpact logic

Establishes demonstration projects as needed

Provides recommendations forAdvisory Group attention

Determines new inputs toTransportation Planning process

Updates & Implementation ofRegional Transportation Plan,

RTIP, & AQMP

Market-driven develop-ment & deployment of telecom

infrastructure & applications in the regional economy

MARKET PROCESS:Growth of telecom technology-based

products and services

More Regional use oftelecommunications infrastruc-

ture & applications generally

Causes of accelerated deployment

More Regional use of travel-saving applications

Emergence of massmarket telecommunications

applications

Resulting impact ontravel demand in the Region

Resultingregional tele-

com-travel

InformationDistribution &

Networking

Model City Starter Kits

Workshops & Outreach

Legislative Initiatives & Actions

Identity Creation &Awareness

Brokering/Partnerships Creation

STRATEGICMARKETING

SCEPTC


11. Financial Plan: Cost Elements

Flexibility is built into the design of this strategy,allowing either growth or shrinkage in the level ofprofessional staffing and activity over time. Thedepth of implementation is a choice, now andcontinuing, based on priorities and budget avail-able. The major cost elements of this work planare as follows:

◆ Meetings of the Advisory Group.

◆ Management of the TelecommunicationsCluster activity of the Partnership.

◆ Operation of the Association's telecommunica-tions analysis function.

◆ Operation of the Web site.

◆ Intervention activities carried out by workgroups and task teams.

◆ Special research projects.

◆ Outreach program of the Cluster.

◆ Outside Evaluative assessment three years period).

The fact that this Strategy is designed to workover a period of many years does not mean thatshorter term results are unfeasible [11]. Anyinsights into barriers that are blocking the expan-sion of applications should be acted upon imme-diately. For example, suppose an analysis of theroutine transmission of medical images betweenhospitals and clinics in Southern California turnsout to be a significant travel saver. Suppose thata lack of a particular infrastructure or serviceoffering is the clear blockage to expansion of thisapplication. Then it would make sense for a work-ing group to take steps to alleviate this problem.

12. Modeling telecommunications

effects on transportation

Southern California Association of Governments,Southern California Economic Partnership, andCalifornia Department of Transportation seek toanalyze telecommunications as a mode of trans-portation. This paradigm implies that the transac-tions, interactions, relationships, and informationexchanges that are the purposes and result ofphysical movement in vehicles can sometimes befulfilled through the use of telephoning, telecon-ferencing, computer network access, or othertelecommunications.

To consider telecommunications as a mode oftransportation, one must be able to map telecom-munications events onto comparable transporta-tion trips. Examples include:

◆ Instead of driving to work, a worker stayshome and telecommutes.

◆ Instead of driving around to a variety of storeslooking for a particular item to purchase, ashopper phones to a number of stores untilthe item is located, and then drives to onestore directly.

◆ Instead of registering for university classes onthe campus, a student registers over the tele-phone.

◆ Instead of going to church on Sunday, a familystays home and watches a popular minister ona televised religious service.

◆ Instead of driving to a video arcade at themall, a teenager stays home and participatesin an interactive game tournament that con-nects players nationwide over the Internet.

◆ Instead of a soft drink delivery truck driving toa heavily used Coke machine once every twodays to fill it up (whether needed or not), wire-less radio status reporting on the contents ofthe machine allow the bottler to visit as need-ed, which results in visits that calculate out toone visit every 3.3 days. (Actual application,numbers are hypothetical.)

One step in analyzing telecommunications as amode of transportation is to list out the transac-tion, interactions, relationships, and informationexchanges that can be fulfilled through eithertelecommunications or transportation. Thismeans classifying by trip purpose those telecom-munications applications with an impact on physical movement.

Another step in the analysis is to consider thedegree to which the effect of telecommunicationson physical movement is already built into theexisting "four step" transportation models. Giventhat such models are calibrated to today's tripvolumes, and given that the first incarnations oftelecommunications (namely the telephone andTV broadcasting) have been acting on transporta-tion in a serious manner for several decades (atleast), a reasonable assumption is that telecom-munications effects are implicitly built into trans-portation models, in that same sense that eco-nomic growth and land use patterns are built in.These effects would be measured through theperiodic monitoring of travel characteristics in theregion.

For example, consider the use of telecommunica-tions as a substitute for meetings. One mightassume that society is in the middle of a gradualevolution in the use of telecommunications as away of meeting, an evolution that began with thegrowing use of telephones in the 1920s.Electronic mail came along later, and video-con-ferencing more recently. These technologies canperhaps be considered to be reaching use gradu-ally enough to be fully encompassed in traveltrend data that is used to create and calibratepresent trip-generation models.

But gradual changes can work both ways. Theoverall conclusion of earlier research by GlobalTelematics is that there is a probability that thereis no overall metro area trip reduction effect thattelecommunications yields, in a natural, baselinesense, all forces considered. The list of ways inwhich telecommunications increases trip-makingis just as long as the list of ways in which itdecreases trip-making. See BeyondTelecommuting, [5] . Even for commuting trips,because of the prospect of other telecommunica-tions applications besides telecommuting chang-ing economic structure, business processes, andland use in the direction of more temporaryemployment, just-in-time behavior, and geograph-ic dispersion, more SOV use is stimulated at theexpense of ridesharing and transit.

The Association's present methodology of takingtelecommuting and work at home as separate,outside, across-the-board overrides on the base-line trip generation stage of the model should bereconsidered in light this analysis. Given that theAssociation's traffic model is aimed at summariz-

55TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT JULY, 1996


ing all forces that bear on trip making, simply iso-lating the trip reduction side of telecommunica-tions and applying it as a secondary override onthe trip generation baseline is not valid. If theAssociation's baseline trip generation estimationsare functions of volume drivers such as numbersof people, households, workers, and vehicles perhousehold, then telecommunications usage thateither increases trips or decreases trips is reflect-ed in changing coefficients in the equations thatwould show up over time as the equations arecalibrated to the real world.

While the overall effects of telecommunicationsdeployment show up in the baseline modelthrough the overall trip generation equations, wewould propose a different focus for modeling theincremental, policy-driven telecommunicationseffects that result from this Plan. A main thrust ofthis Strategy is that for the region to achieve tripreduction from telecommunications the imple-mentation process must identify those particulartypes of applications out of which reduction actu-ally happens, understand these applications, andthen take targeted policy and marketing action toaccelerate their deployment. Promoting telecom-muting is one example of a targeted action thatwould likely reduce trips through the use oftelecommunications.

The Telecommunications Model City Starter Kit,telecommuting marketing newsletters fromMetro, promoting particular applications throughthe Partnership Web site, and other extraordinary,intentionally-designed programs of action pro-duce an incremental effect on telecommunica-tions applications development and deployment.The expected incremental effects on telecommu-nications deployment and trip-making behaviorfrom these initiatives would be the "delta" fromthe baseline. These efforts if successful must ulti-mately come down to incremental growth in theuse of particular telecommunications applicationsthat change trip making. This chain of logic thenleads to the proposition that the effects of partic-ular telecommunications applications on particu-lar transportation trip types is at the heart ofmeasuring how telecommunications and trans-portation are jointly modeled.

Indeed, measurement of the trip generation/con-servation effects of the telecommuting applica-tion (home based work trip replacement) over thepast decade provides an example of thisapproach. Telecommuting was carefully analyzedfor trip effects for the first time in the Californiaand Washington State TelecommutingDemonstration Projects. These efforts involved adefined set of telecommuters keeping traveldiaries to measure both commuting behavior andother trip making. Control groups from the sameemployer organizations as the telecommutersalso kept travel diaries. These results have beenpublished, and are very optimistic for travel sav-ings in the short run in that telecommuters do notgenerate commute trips on telecommuting days.Also, telecommuters and their families do notengage in other trip making that rolls back thesavings. The only concerns that have arisen in thetelecommuting studies relate to long-run land usepatterns (telecommuters show a tendency to livein more dispersed locations) and in the manifes-tation of latent demand [12] as other drivers fill infor those commuters who stay home. These arenot of concern in the trip generation stage of thefour stage model.

Trip making forthe purpose ofshopping is prob-ably the nextmost productivetarget for analysisof trip making,since shopping isthe next biggesttrip type after

commuting. Mail order catalog shopping (which isreally telephone shopping) is a reasonable initialsurrogate for full electronic shopping. The travelbehavior of a sample of heavy catalog shoppersshould be compared to the trip making of ademographically matched sample of "mallcrawlers." The trip substitution data generated insuch a study could be generalized by mapping itonto projections of the expansion of electronicshopping.

This process of analyzing telecommunicationsimpacts can be repeated for each trip purpose,for example, school trips, college trips, home-based other, and non-home based other. Actualtrip purposes with a telecommunications equiva-

Modeling the future effects of the Plan


system has been implemented at the UCLA maincampus. Suppose that somehow, through traveldiaries or through analytical estimation, a certainnumber of average trips per day are saved by thisapplication, perhaps calculated by normalizingthe effects of reduced quarterly registration hometo campus trips across all days of the year. UCLAhas, say, 30,000 students. The effect of this appli-cation being spread 100 percent across all cam-puses of all colleges and universities in the areais based on scaling up from 30,000 students onone campus to 120,000 students on 20 campuses. The mathematics is linear.

Suppose, for example, that theTelecommunications Cluster Advisory group withanalytical help determines that this application isgoing to diffuse through market forces alone toonly 60,000 students on 10 campuses. Thisbecomes the baseline case for this application.The "Plan" case for this application is what wouldhappen with a special incentive program from theTelecommunications Cluster. That would perhapsyield the 100 percent effect, with related travelbenefits.

Measurement of the travel effects of telecommu-nications applications is thus an application-by-application effort that will take several years tocomplete. Eventually, with experience, economiesin the process may appear in the form of general-izations about applications.

To summarize, the effect of applications is centralto understanding how accelerated telecommuni-cations deployment can effect trip-making. Eventhe long-run interest of Partnership andAssociation leadership in tracing the effect oftelecommunications infrastructure deploymentdepends ultimately on understanding the trip-making impact of applications and working back-wards into infrastructure.

lent needs to be extracted from the last two.Every trip purpose and corresponding telecommu-nications application is somewhat different,although it is possible that applications and trippurposes can be grouped to simplify analysis. Ageneral pattern would be to assemble a group ofpeople who make some trips of a particular type,and/or who use a telecommunications applica-tion for the same trip purpose. Travel behaviorwould be differentiated by telecommunicationsusage. Examples of potentially useful analyticalresults include:

◆ Household that use on-line electronic groceryordering make only r trips per week to grocerystores, compared to non users who make strips per week. However, the delivery of gro-ceries by trucks from the warehouse generatesa trip equivalence of t trips per week that off-sets the gain.

◆ Since University Alpha has begun offeringclasses via the Internet, the weekday dailylevel of campus parking lot entries per studenthas fallen from y to z, compared to UniversityBeta where the similar figure has remainedstable at n.

◆ Households owning a personal computer andusing the Internet generate on average onlyxx% of the daily weekday trips that house-holds not owning a personal computer do.

The Knowledge Base that is part of theTelecommunications Deployment Strategydescribed in this report is a starting point for ana-lyzing travel effects of telecommunications.Measuring what telecommunications applicationsdo to change travel behavior begins with deter-mining the travel effect of particular case studiesin the Knowledge Base through travel diaries orestimation. Then, the total travel effect of onesample application working across all six countieswould be a matter of scaling up the effect of onecase study across a proportion of the universe ofpossible application implementations that is reasonable.

For example, suppose a telephonic registration

Analyzing the Knowledge Base


13. Telecommunications

and the Economy

Seeking positive impacts on the SouthernCalifornia regional economy is a secondary mis-sion of the Partnership. This is a secondary mis-sion because it requires less targeting and focusthan the primary mission of achieving travelimpacts. Any effort to accelerate telecommunica-tions deployment will have positive economiceffects, so the primary particular focus onenhanced mobility and access of this Plan willcertainly achieve such general effects. This sec-tion explains the range of mechanisms by whichtelecommunications affects any advanced economy.

There are at least four relationships betweentelecommunications and the economy. Each ofthe relationships suggests a related economicdevelopment strategy for the region. Each poten-tial economic development strategy can be foldedinto the Telecommunications DeploymentStrategy.

First, telecommunications is provided by animportant group of companies in the regional,national, and world economies. The industry oftelecommunications service and equipment sup-pliers and related information technology compa-nies is growing rapidly. These companies providerelatively high salaries and wages, but are notnecessarily stable employers because of the tur-bulence in the industry common to high technolo-gy generally.

A regional economic development strategy thatexploits this first relationship would be to fosterattraction, retention, and growth in the region oftelecommunications industry firms that havemany employees.

To apply this economic development strategywithin the strategy of telecommunications deploy-ment for mobility and access enhancement, anemphasis would need to be placed on telecom-munications deployment activity that favored theproducts and services of firms with relativelyhigher levels of local employment (actual orpotential).

Second, the indirect but pervasive impact ofapplication(s) and the use of telecommunicationsproducts improves the productivity, market reach,and other performance characteristics of all firms,including manufacturing, entertainment, whole-sale, retail, financial, transportation, health care,education, and government. Information is anincreasingly important input for the production ofgoods and services, and telecommunications pro-vides the intra- and inter-regional highways forinformation flows. Telecommunications highwayslink all of the locations of enterprises, public ser-vices, and customers in the economy, and theperformance of those highways --and how firmsuse these highways -- is critical to economic per-formance. Econometric analysis by ParkerTelecommunications and DRI/McGraw Hill hasshown that telecommunications investment inrecent decades has caused economic growth[22]and productivity improvement[23] at the U.S.national level. Over the period 1963-91, the por-tion of total U.S. economy-wide productivity gainsattributable to advances in telecommunicationswas 25 percent.

Providing incentives for the smart use of telecom-munications by regional businesses and otherorganizations for the purposes of improving theirefficiency, sales, productivity, export marketing,research capabilities or other aspects of perfor-mance is an economic development strategy. Inresponse to Southern California's location in azone of seismic activity, telecommunications alsoprovides a means for economic functioning whenthe transportation system suddenly loses func-tionality as in the case of the 1994 Northridgeearthquake.

To apply this strategy within the telecommunica-tions deployment strategy, emphasis would needto be placed on particular applications projectsthat have a performance-enhancing effect on theorganization involved, in addition to improvingmobility. In fact, most organizations are interestedonly in mobility enhancements from telecommuni-cations to the degree that the application alsoenhances organizational performance. In otherwords, this economic development strategycomes along for "free" with the rest of thetelecommunications deployment strategy.

Third, new telecommunications applicationscause qualitative and quantitative structural

Relationships between telecommunications

and the economy


changes in the economy that go beyond organiza-tional impacts. Industry structure, types and num-bers of jobs, entrepreneurial activity, and geo-graphic activity location are all affected. Therestructuring of the selling and distribution ofgoods through the growth of electronic commerceis one example.[24] The revolution that is occur-ring in adult training and education is anotherexample.[25] More generally, the changing mix-ture of transportation and telecommunications ininformation exchange, transactions, relationships,and interactions is an example of structuralchange.

A related regional economic development strate-gy would be the promotion of telecommunica-tions-enabled restructuring of the local economy,such as telecommuting, electronic commerce, andelectronic service delivery. Such restructuringdoes not necessarily enhance mobility. A virtualoffice strategy with procedures that caused amobile sales force to be driving during peakmorning traffic is an example of reducing regionalmobility even though the workers can stay per-sonally productive using their cellular telephones.

To include a wider restructuring approach to eco-nomic development along with mobility enhance-ment would require choosing improvement activi-ties that encompass wider restructuring effects.This would typically be the case in the wide-spread application of more daring and innovativeapproaches to mobility enhancement, such asrestructuring consumer interaction with grocerystores into electronic ordering and home delivery.Another example would be an effort to restructurehigher education around a much higher fractionof learning activity taking place at home or withinwalking distance of the workplace, so that fewerstudents drove to a traditional campus for theirclasses.

Finally, the purchase of telecommunications ser-vices and equipment by consumers is an impor-tant component of consumption. This consump-tion includes usage of telephones and computermodems, interactive services like Compuserveand America Online, and broadcast radio andtelevision.

Promoting the consumption of telecommunica-tions products and services by businesses andhouseholds when the purpose of that consump-tion yields a clear public benefit is a potential

regional economic development strategy.Beneficial uses of telecommunications includethose that yield educational, business develop-ment, productivity improvement, and trip reduc-tion purposes. Choice of promotional focus isnecessary. Promoting telecommunications usagegenerally, which includes children playing interac-tive games instead of doing their homework, andadults engaged in telecommunications-enabledinteractive wagering, is not clearly in the publicinterest.

The economic development strategy of promotingtelecommunications consumption comes alongautomatically with almost any approach to mobili-ty enhancement through telecommunicationsdeployment. By definition, telecommunicationsdeployment means increasing societal usage ofvoice, data, and video telecommunications.

While employment gains in the SouthernCalifornia telecommunications industry (supplyside) have been emphasized in strategic planningfor the Telecommunications Cluster, it is certainlytrue that greater economic benefits to the regionwould come from the employment and incomegains generated by the effective application andusage of telecommunications by organizations ofall types and by individuals, not just from the pro-duction of telecommunications goods and ser-vices by the firms in one industry. For example inthe 1994 Regional Transportation Plan, the fore-cast of 65,000 jobs to be created in telecommuni-cations supply by the year 2010 from the activi-ties of the Telecommunications Cluster is a trivialone half of one percent of the 12 million total jobsforecast to be located in the Southern Californiaregion during that same year. Furthermore,65,000 telecommunications supply jobs is onlytwo percent of the 3.1 million jobs to be added tothe regional economy in the period 1990-2010. Aplan that seeks to increase the mobility andtelecommunications usage of the entire 2010economy of 12 million jobs is more meaningfulthan adding 65,000 new jobs. This reasoning suggests that the demand-side effects of telecom-munications on the economy — the second, thirdand fourth effects given above — should beemphasized in strategic activity over the supply-side effect described first.

Demand-side emphasisworks best


Another reason for emphasizing demand-sideeffects rather than supply-side effects is theprospect that the restructuring of the telecommu-nications industry coming as a result of techno-logical change and the FederalTelecommunications Act of 1996 will lead to mas-sive layoffs in the traditional telecommunicationsindustry. On January 2, 1996 for example, AT&Tannounced the coming elimination of 40,000jobs, 13% of its workforce, over the next threeyears. An analyst quoted in Business Week[26]estimates an additional 60,000 traditionaltelecommunications jobs will be cut in the nextfive years, on top of the 250,000 cut since theBell system breakup in 1984. These layoffs are amanifestation of "creative destruction"[27] thatfrees up resources for the founding and growth ofnew enterprises.

The AT&T layoff mentioned earlier raises the per-sistent question, do telecommunications andother information technologies destroy jobsfaster than they are created? Or does informationtechnology create more jobs than the supply ofskilled people to fill them?

Two articulate policy analysts provide contrastingpoints of view:

Jeremy Rifkin, author of the book The End ofWork: The Decline of the Global Labor Force andthe Dawn of the Post-Market Era, has attractednational attention with a pessimistic view of theimpact of technology deployment on job creation:"The global economy is in the midst of a transfor-mation as significant as the Industrial Revolution.We are in the early stages of a shift from 'masslabor' to highly skilled 'elite labor,' accompaniedby increasing automation in the production ofgoods and the delivery of services. Sophisticatedcomputers, robots, telecommunications, andother Information Age technologies are replacinghuman beings in nearly every sector. Factoryworkers, secretaries, receptionists, clerical work-ers, sales clerks, bank tellers, telephone opera-tors, librarians, wholesalers, and middle man-agers are just a few of the many occupations des-tined for virtual extinction. In the United Statesalone, as many as 90 million jobs in a labor force

of 124 million are potentially vulnerable to dis-placement by automation." Rifkin compares thepast and the present like this: "In the past, whennew technology increased productivity — such asin the 1920s when oil and electricity replacedcoal- and steam-powered plants — Americanworkers organized collectively to demand a short-er workweek and better pay and benefits. Today,employers are shortening not the workweek, butthe workforce — effectively preventing millions ofAmerican workers from enjoying the benefits ofthe technology revolution."

Michael Rothschild, author of the bookBionomics: Economy as Ecosystem provides uswith a contrary, more optimistic view: "You mightask whether anyone predicted the millions of newjobs that have been created worldwide by thepersonal computer industry over the last decade.The short answer is no. The explosion of growthcaught economic forecasters by complete sur-prise....Imagining the future structure of an econ-omy undergoing radical change is all but impossi-ble. When George Washington took office, 97 per-cent of Americans were farmers. Today, fewerthan 3 percent work the land. If an 18th centuryJeremy Rifkin had asked President Washington todescribe in detail the jobs that would absorb thetalents of Americans about to be pushed off theland, could he have listed tractor mechanics, airtraffic controllers and telephone installers?"Rothschild worries about an inadequate supply ofskilled labor in the United States. He states, "Wedo not produce enough skilled young people tofill all the potential jobs technology creates. Wereit not for a steady influx of technically trainedimmigrants, America's high-tech boom would bechoked off. By their ability to create products andservices that were previously impossible, techni-cally skilled workers create jobs for others withlower skill levels. There is no inherent limit to jobgrowth. If job opportunities expand too slowly, itwill be because America has too few high skillworkers spawning jobs for others."

Both Jeremy Rifkin and Michael Rothschild urgethat the challenges of the Information Agebecome the subject of a critical national debate.

Based on evidence such as the two studies citedabove from Cronin, et al, the consultant authorsof this report are firmly on the side of the under-standing that information technology — consider-

Job creation or job destruction


ing the demand side effects across all industries -- offers net job creation for the SouthernCalifornia region.

With the job creation question settled, there is noneed for the Partnership to choose which of threedemand-side mechanisms noted above should beemphasized to bring economic benefits fromtelecommunications deployment to the SouthernCalifornia region. It is certain that all three of themechanisms -- organizational restructuring,industry restructuring, and consumer consump-tion will be working to create new jobs.

Another issue about which the Partnership andthe Association have been made keenly aware inAdvisory Group discussion is the distribution oftelecommunications benefits among people ofdifferent economic standing. It is increasinglycommon to hear leaders with a conscience worry-ing about the "haves" and "have nots" in the useof telecommunications and information services.Considerations of supply and demand then arisearound this telecommunications issue as well.Equally important as the concept of "have/havenot" (referring typically to availability and afford-ability of services to the economically disadvan-taged) are the concepts of "can/cannot" whichrefers to knowledge and skill levels, and of"want/want not" which refers to interest andmotivation. These latter two concepts are driversof demand.

Any effective program of distributional equity inthe development and deployment of telecommu-nications applications requires attention to theseconcepts as well as availability and affordability.That said, it is incumbent upon a public-privatecooperative partnership like the SouthernCalifornia Economic Partnership to address distri-butional equity in its efforts to acceleratetelecommunications deployment. In the format ofthe Knowledge Base, there is a data field fordescribing how the application differs in its mar-ket acceptance across economically advantagedand economically disadvantaged people, andwhether there is a public interest in promotingaccess and use of the application by economicallydisadvantaged people.

The economic impacts of implementing theTelecommunications Deployment Strategy shouldbe assessed through multiple measurements thatcapture direct specific effects as well as broadgeneral effects.

Specific telecommunications indicators capturedirect effects of strategic intervention thatattempt to change patterns of telecommunica-tions production or usage.

◆ telecommunications service and equipmentpurchase and usage trends in the region andin the various subregions

◆ telecommunications consumption per capita inthe region and in the various subregions

◆ telecommunications cost relative to otherregions

◆ representation of Southern California firms onindependently-generated lists of firms ratedfor best telecommunications usage

◆ size and strength of the regional telecommuni-cations industry sector, including number ofnew jobs created.

General economic indicators capture broadeffects that lie downstream from changed pat-terns of telecommunications usage. However, thebroad effects described here are the result of mul-tiple factors, not just telecommunications.

◆ regional economic output

◆ regional productivity

◆ per capita personal income in the region

◆ distribution of personal income in the region

◆ regional employment levels

◆ export performance of the region

◆ travel consumption per capita in the region

Distribution of Economic Benefits

Indicators


Conclusion

The Telecommunications Deployment Strategyprovides a new, additional focus and motivationfor the private and public efforts that are alreadydeploying telecommunications in SouthernCalifornia. The focus described here is justifiedbecause of the extraordinary magnitude of themobility and air quality problems in the region.

At the same time, the telecommunications infrastructure, services, and applications that are deploying in the six counties of the region are nested within a National InformationInfrastructure and a Global InformationInfrastructure that along with transportation is a key mechanism for letting California performcompetitively and successfully as part of theglobal economy.

The Association and the Partnership are con-vinced that the specific mobility enhancementfocus of this plan indirectly yields the additionaleconomic benefits of job creation, organizationalproductivity, and enhanced competitive perfor-mance by regional firms in addition to the travel-saving benefits that are sought directly.

The Telecommunications Deployment Strategy, if executed flexibly in response to changing environmental conditions, will establish SouthernCalifornia's worldwide leadership in the applica-tion of telecommunications for mobility andaccess enhancement, while at the same time contributing to economic competitiveness,increasing service delivery efficiency, and improving quality of life.


References and Notes

1. Southern California Association ofGovernments, Regional Mobility Element: TheLong Range Transportation Plan for the SCAGRegion, Volume 1, June 1994, page 1-1.

2. In Volume 2, Appendix G of the RegionalMobility Element cited in note 1, telecommu-nications is defined as "the conveyance ofinformation by electronic means. Examplesinclude the telephone, interactive cable facili-ties, computer networks and video conference centers." (page G-10) We haveenhanced this definition by recognizing inter-active (real-time, two-way) communications,by noting the optical part of the electromagnetic spectrum, and by stressingcommunications beyond easy consumerwalking distance where vehicle travel beginsto be the leading alternative to telecommuni-cations.

3. This model benefits from consideration of theIntegrative Technology Model, prepared bythe Vicki Suter at the Davis CommunityNetwork. See the DCN/Smart CommunitiesProject Description, provided in Appendix C.

4. Reports examined include California PublicUtility Commission, Enhancing California'sCompetitive Strength: A Strategy forTelecommunications Infrastructure,November 1993; California Council on Scienceand Technology, Project California: ABlueprint for Energizing California's EconomicRecovery, October 1993; The Governor'sCouncil on Information Technology, GettingResults, March 1995; City of Los AngelesSpecial Advisory Committee on TechnologyImplementation, Final Report, January 1995;Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network, TheJoint Venture Way: Lessons for RegionalRejuvenation, 1995; Institute for Local SelfGovernment (Sacramento), ATelecommunications Framework, November1991; The National Information InfrastructureAdvisory Council, Common Ground:Fundamental Principles for the NationalInformation Infrastructure, March 1995;United States Department of Transportation,Transportation Implications ofTelecommuting, April 1993; and United StatesDepartment of Energy, Energy, Emissions, and Social Consequences of Telecommuting,June 1994.

5. United States Department of Energy, BeyondTelecommuting: A New Paradigm for theEffect of Telecommunications on Travel,September 1994.

6. Joel Garreau, Edge City: Life on the NewFrontier, Doubleday, 1991.

7. Center for the New West et al, WorkSmartFinal Report, July 1995.

8. WorkSmart Final Report.

9. Doug Bartholomew, The Longest Day,Information Week, September 19, 1994, pp. 35-44.

10. On the Internet at http://www.ci.san-carlos.ca.us/telecom/lccmod.html.

11. For further explanation of biology referencesin the 2010-2015 era, see Kevin Kelly, Out ofControl: The New Biology of Machines, SocialSystems and the Economic World, Addison-Wesley, 1994; Stan Davis and Bill Davidson,2020 Vision, Simon & Schuster, 1991; andGregory Benford, "Biology 2001," Reason,November 1995, pages 22-29.

12. Anthony Downs, Stuck in Traffic, TheBrookings Institution, 1992.

13. Office of Technology Assessment, Congress ofthe United States, The TechnologicalReshaping of Metropolitan America,September 1995.

14. California Department of Transportation,Advanced Transportation Systems ProgramPlan, October 1995.

15. Beyond Telecommuting

16. Energy, Emissions, and Social Consequencesof Telecommuting, page xvii.

17. Southern California TelecommutingPartnership, Telecommuting ServicesRegional Needs Assessment for the SouthernCalifornia Region, February 16, 1995, page 7.

63


18. "Retailers want shoppers back," United PressInternational wire, April 22, 1994; Patrick L.Phillips, "Merging entertainment and retail-ing," Economic Development Review, v13n2,Spring 1995, pages 13-15.

19. "Reinventing the Store," Business Week,November 27, 1995, page 85.

20. "Interactive Shopping," The Forrester Report,May, 1994.

21. "The Future of Electronic Shopping," Wired,January 96, p. 64.

22. Francis J. Cronin, Edwin B. Parker, Elisabeth K.Colleran, and Mark A. Gold,"Telecommunications infrastructure and eco-nomic growth," Telecommunications Policy,December 1991, pages 529-35.

23. Francis J. Cronin, Edwin B. Parker, Elisabeth K.Colleran, and Mark A. Gold,"Telecommunications infrastructure invest-ment and economic development,"Telecommunications Policy, August 1993, pp.415-30

24. Robert L. Segal, "The Coming ElectronicCommerce (R)Evolution," Planning, Nov-Dec1995, pp. 21-27ff.

25. Lewis J. Perlman, School's Out:Hyperlearning, the new technology, and theend of education, William Morrow andCompany, New York, 1992.

26. "The Bloodletting at AT&T is Just theBeginning," Business Week, January 15, 1996,page 30.

27. This phrase was popularized by economistJoseph Schumpeter in reference to the contin-uing dynamic of old business organizationsdying under the pressure of competition fromnewly created firms.


Glossary

Travel: The physical movement of people ormaterial from one location to another using transportation.

Transportation: The means of physical movementof people and material, for example, the systemof public roads and private and public vehicles.

Mode of transportation: The type of medium usedto travel (example: vehicles).

Mobility: The ability to move people or materialfrom one location to another. Transportation provides mobility.

Telecommunications: Interactive communicationsand other conveyance of information over a distance by electronic and optical means

Access: The ability of people to communicatewith or travel to a distant location. Transportationand telecommunications both provide access.

Physical Accessibility: The ability or ease of allpeople to travel among various origins and destinations.

Electronic Accessibility: The ability or ease of allpeople to use telecommunications to connectwith various distant locations.

Telecommunications Infrastructure: Cables,antennas, switches and other physical facilitiesthat permit telecommunications.

Telecommunications Application: The deploy-ment and use by one or more organizations ofnetworks, hardware, software, and telecommuni-cations services to carry out an organizationalpurpose such as service delivery to customers, orsupport of employees in dispersed locations.Examples of telecommunications applications aretelecommuting, telemarketing, community networking.

Telecommunications Deployment: The increasingsocietal usage of telecommunications.

Telework: Any use of telecommunications thatchanges the location of workers or facilitates their mobility.

Telecommuting: Using the telephone, computernetworks, and other telecommunications to workat home or at telework centers, instead of commuting. Telecommuting is a particular type oftelework.

Teleservice: Any use of telecommunications tomake service available to customers in a non-tra-ditional location through electronic access.

Telelogistics: Any use of telecommunicationsthat modifies the transportation of freight andother material.

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Appendices

John S Niles

Appendices are not included in this online pdf version. To order a CD with complete report and all appendices, see http://www.globaltelematics.com/tds.htm