telecommunications and energy policy

Telecommunications and energy policy

Michael Tyler, Michael Katsoulis, and Angela Cook

As the energy problems of the West continue, an increasing amount of attention is focused on methods of energy conservation. The authors develop an 'activist' view of the role of telecommunications as a component of energy-conservation policy. Ad- vanced telecommunications offer an alternative to many forms of travel. The results of research aimed at quantifying and com- paring the direct energy consumption of travel and telecom- mun ica t i ons are presented , Telecommunications developments can induce changes in business organisat ion, t ransport , urban development, and environmental quality, as wel l as increased freedom of location. The authors consider whether such changes are feasible and desirable.

Michael Tyler is with the Harvard Program on Information Technologies and Public Policy, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA; Michael Katsoulis is with the Business Planning Group, Bell Canada, Room 1105, 620 Belmont, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Angela Cook is with the Communica- tions Studies Group, 56 Hallem St, LondonWlN 5LH, UK.

An increasingly important aspect of telecommunications policy is the use of telecommunications technology as an instrument of economic and social change. The possibility of using telecommunications as a means of promoting economy in the use of energy, by improving the efficiency of transport or even partially replacing it for some purposes, presents such an opportunity. It implies an 'activist' approach, going beyond the traditional role of telecommunications as a public utility which simply follows market trends, supplying services on demand. Other examples of activist proposals are the use of telecommunications to provide wider access to education or social services, and the achievement of increased freedom of location through the 'electronic office' and similar concepts.

This is not to imply that the traditional pattern of development of telecommunications has not had important consequences in such fields as business organisations, transport, and office location and urban development: in the past, however, such consequences have been largely inadvertent and even unrecognised. Only recently, with increasing awareness of the versatile potential of telecommunications and information technology, and with the beginnings of 'telecommunications impact' research on a significant scale, have impact issues come into prominence. The emergence of the activist conception of telecommunications policy will not necessarily imply a change in the institutional role of telecommunications common carriers, since the driving forces for change may also develop externally. This may happen through government policy initiatives in superficially unconnected fields, such as energy or environmental policy, transport, education, or urban planning. An alternative approach is to identify and aggregate potential demands for new services that could not have appeared spontaneously as effective demand: the Public Service Satellite Consortium initiative, and numerous federal demonstration projects in the USA are examples of this approach.

In the following discussion an activist view of the role of telecommunications as a component of energy-conservation policy is developed, and it is emphasised that success in realising the energy- saving possibilities of this approach can only be fully achieved in an appropriate policy environment. The importance of the issue lies in four critical factors:

TELECOMMUNICATIONS POLICY December 1976 21


M. Katsou l is . "T rave l / t e l ecom- munications substitution -- its potential for energy conservation in Canada,' Bell Canada, February 1976. z Consider one Canadian example: if On- tario Hydro were to cease burning relatively scarce natural gas at its Hearn generating station and switch to coal, the changeover would be quickly reflected in deteriorating air quality in Toronto. Such trade-offs raise fundamental social issues, and have often proved virtually un- manageable. a H. Hirst and P. Mayers, 'Improving the efficiency of energy use: transportation and space heating and cooling', Evidence to the US House of Representatives, Sub- Committee on Science Research and Development, 1972.

• The continuing importance of the problem of energy scarcity in the Western world, somewhat abated as a result of reduced energy demand during the recent recession, but likely to be of central importance in determining the economic future, lifestyles, and material standards of living.

• The role of transport in the energy economy: in Canada, for example, which has the world's second-highest per capita level of energy use, the transportation sector accounts for 41% of petroleum used, and 60% of this is used to transport people 1 (corresponding figures for the USA and the UK are given in Table 1).

• Increasing concern about the impacts of energy use on the quality of air, water, land, and ecological systems generally. Combustion of 'fossil' fuels for transport, especially automobile transport (which accounts for 25% of petroleum consumption in Canada and 45% in the USA), is an outstanding offender in this respect. Unfortunately, attempts to improve the situation by minor adjustments of existing systems often produce dilemmas: measures aimed at conserving energy can result in increased environmental degradation, and v ice-versa . ~

• There are essentially four ways to reduce energy use. The first is to accept a major reduction in material standards of living, an approach which is often advocated but seems neither probable nor desirable. The second approach is the principal focus of most existing energy-conservation programmes: it is to modify individual items of equipment, such as vehicles or buildings, so that they use less energy. While the energy-saving potential of such measures is substantial (the most energy- efficient air-conditioning units are 2.5 times more efficient than the worst comparable units, according to Hirst and Mayers, 3 it has obvious limits: several industrial activities, for instance, including much commercial electricity generating and some chemical processes, are already operating close to their theoretical thermodynamic limits of efficiency. Beyond that point, the achievement of further energy savings becomes more difficult, involving either the discovery of radically different ways of continuing existing economic and social activities, or rearranging the activities themselves to be more energy- efficient.

Telecommunications offer opportunities for both these latter solutions. Advanced telecommunications offer an alternative to many

Table 1. Role of the transport sector in total energy consumption

Canada USA (1970)

Transport energy use as percentage of total

Use of petroleum by transport as percentage of total petroleum use

UK (1971)

24 25 15

41 54 30

22 TELECOMMUNICATIONS POLICY December 1976

4 M. Tyler, B. Cartwright, and G. Bush, 'Interaction between telecommunicat ions and face-to-face communication, The energy factor', Intelligence Bulletin 3, Long Range Studies Division, Post Office T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , Cambr idge , England, 1974. s M. Katsoulis, 'Energy impacts of passenger transportation', Bell Canada, March 1974. See also Katsoulis (1976) op cit.


forms of travel which are undertaken to attend face-to-face meetings, and since it is largely the need for such meetings that holds together much of the office and service employment that increasingly dominates urban centres, it is clear that telecommunications developments will lead to increased freedom of location and the possibility of new energy-conserving patterns of human settlement.

How far are such changes feasible and desirable, and how much energy could be saved if they were achieved? Extensive programmes of research in the UK, Canada, and the USA have been devoted to answering these questions: the main findings and unresolved uncertainties are summarised below, and the key issues of concept and method are considered.

Energy comparisons between telecommunications and travel At least one part of the problem is now almost resolved: the amount of energy that can be saved in cases where travel is replaced by telecommunication. The problem of estimating energy savings from travel substitution must be approached with caution. In principle, it seems that to transport someone from, say, Montreal to a meeting in New York must require much more energy than to conduct the same meeting by means of electronic signals. However, since both transport and telecommunications require an extensive and complex infrastructure of equipment, maintenance, and administration, no purely theoretical calculation of the energy required to overcome friction, or to propagate a signal along a coaxial cable, will be of much help. The real performance of the systems concerned must be observed and the extent to which technological developments may modify that performance must be considered.

Studies of this kind have been undertaken in the Long Range Studies Division of Post Office Telecommunications in the UK 4 and by Bell Canada) Both use essentially the same conceptual basis, which distinguishes between direct and indirect energy use, between average and marginal rates of energy use, and between the energy dissipated by the system under consideration, and the primary energy input (eg in the form of coal, oil, or nuclear-generated heat) used.

The results summarised here are for direct energy consumption: they do not include energy 'embodied' in goods or services consumed by the telecommunications system (eg the energy consumed in refining copper for cables). They do, however, account for all the primary energy input used in supplying the system's direct energy needs. The estimates are of marginal energy consumption, ie the increment of energy consumption associated with an increment of traffic. They assume that system capacity is adjusted proportionately to such changes in traffic (so that the 'lumpiness' in providing additional airline scheduling or microwave routes is 'smoothed out') and that overhead energy consumption by administrative, maintenance, or similar functions in the telecommunications and transportation corporations will not increase proportionately but are an essentially fixed 'overhead'.

Table 2 summarises the results for one important example of the Canadian work. The 1985 projections for the efficiencies of coal/oil and hydroelectric power in Canada are 35 and 85% respectively. Use of the second figure gives a result still more favourable to



Source: M. Tyler, B. Cartwright, and G. Bush, ' I n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n te lecommunicat ions and face-to-face communicat ion, The energy factor', Intell igence Bulletin 3, Long Range S t u d i e s Div i s ion , Post Off ice T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , Cambr i dge , England. 1 974.

F i g u r e 1 . P r i m a r y e n e r g y c o n s e r v e d b y s u b s t i t u t i o n o f t e l e c o m -

m u n i c a t i o n s for air t ravel , 1 9 8 5 (2

t rave l le rs re turn) .

Efficiency of electricity generation : 30%

Source: M. Katsoulis, 'Travel / te lecommunicat ions substitution - its potential for energy conservation in Canada', Bell Canada, February 1976.

Table 2. Comparative energy costs for a three-hour meeting between Montreal and Toronto (1985)

Communicat ion services Energy savings of communicat ions over travel (%)

Eff iciency of generating Railway Automobi le Aeroplane electricity: 30% (2 travellers

return)

Conference TV (4.5 MHz) 43 73 88 Video-telephone (1 MHz) 89 96 96 Audio conference ~ 00 'V100 ~k,100

Efficiency of generating electricity: 85%

Conference T V (4-5 MHz) 80 90 96 Video-telephone (1 MHz) 96 97 99 Audio conference "k,100 '~100 %100

telecommunications. A summary of some of the Canadian findings is provided in Figures 1 and 2.

The results of the British studies are given in Table 3 for the case of travel between London and Glasgow (400 miles compared with 325 miles between Montreal and Toronto), and yield figures closely comparable with the Canadian findings. The pattern of variation with distance and size of group travelling is also similar (Figure 3).

Detailed analyses of the UK data show that nearly 90% of the direct energy consumption for video teleconferencing systems (as against 18% for audio) is accounted for by their wide bandwidth transmission requirements, and it seems likely that the rapid technological progress now being made in transmission systems will reduce the energy consumption of video systems dramatically.

Both studies consider as alternatives to travel audio teleconferencing systems such as the Remote Meeting Table currently in use in the British Civil Service, or desk-top conferencing devices

5000

4OOO

3000

2OOO

uJ I000 900

8OO

7O0

6OO

5OO

400

Quebec- Toronto Audio conference Videotelephone

Montreol- Toronto ~ Conference TV Audio conference ~ - -

• - . . . . . "".=-. Videotelephone

" " ' ' ' - - Conference TV

Montreal - Ottowo ~p.=,,..~ =H=,e. L~'L.--_~..--..~..¢..~ ¢ -- "~-- -- -- ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Audio conference

Conference TV

1 I I I I I I I I I I 2 3 4 5 6 T 8 9 I0

Hours of communication

24 T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S POLICY December 1976

Figure 2: Primary energy conserved by s u b s t i t u t i o n of t e l e c o m - munications for intercity automobi le travel, 1985 ( 2 t ravel lers return).

Efficiency of electricity generation: 30%

Source: As for Figure 1.


1400 ~-Quebec- Toronto

1300

1200

I I 0 0

800

700

~ 60o

5OO

t000 ~- N i Montreal- Toronto

900 ~"~'"---....... . . . . . \ .

\ . \ .

\

400

300

200

I00

\ , \

°

\ , \ ,

\ , Montreal - Ottowo

I I 1 1 t I I " P I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Hours of communication

Audio conference

V~ deotelephone

AJdlo conference

V=cieotelephone

Conference TV

Aud=o conference

V=deotelephone C~nference TV

Conference TV

and studio-based, audio-visual 'conference television' facilities such as Confravision in the UK or the Bell Canada TV Conference system. The analysis has not yet been extended to alpha-numeric computer- conferencing systems.

It is important to remember the limitations of the existing comparisons between transport and telecommunications as a basis for estimating overall energy savings. For example, the energy studies compared the energy consumption for a single teleconference with that involved in travel to an equivalent face-to-face meeting: business

Table 3. Comparison between transport and telecommunications in direct use of energy for a three-hour meeting including four people, two of whom would travel from London to Glasgow (400 miles)

Telecommunications Energy (kWh) (primary energy input)

Telephone <1 Studio-based audio system 2 Viewphone (1 MHz video) 40 Confravision (5.5 MHz video) 250

Transport (using average occupancy rates)

Source: R. Pye, M. Tyler, and B. Rail Cartwright, 'Te lecommunicate or Air travel?',New Scientist, 12 September Car 1974.

450 2500 1600

T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S POLICY December 1976 25


E

400 c

o e ~

o t - L

o-~ 2oo = - 0

m 0 I 0 2 0 3 0

Durotion of meeting (h) Number of people trovelltng

Figure 3: Energy savings resulting from the use of "improved" Confravi- sion in place of the advanced passenger train.

Source: M. Tyler, B. Cartwright, and C. Bush, 'Interaction between telecommunications and face-to-face communicat ion, The energy factor' , Intelligence Bulletin 3, Long Range Studies Division, Post Office Telecom- munications, Cambridge, England, 1974.

e J.M. Kollen and T. Garwood, Travel/communications tradeoffs: the potential for substitution among business travellers', Headquarters Business Plan- ning Group, Bell Canada, Montreal, 1975.

M. Tyler, B. Cartwright, and D. Bookless, "The economic consequences of energy scarcity', Intelligence Bulletin 1, Long Range Studies Division, Post Office Telecommunicat ions, Cambridge, England, 1974. 8 p. Tomato, 'Substitution transport t~l~communication', Minist~re de I'Equipement, Paris, 1974.

trips, however, often combine several meetings, especially in cases of long-distance travel. A Bell Canada survey ofintercity business travel showed that the average trip included 2.7 meetings, 6 but this effect is less pronounced for the much more numerous short-distance trips. Definitive answers, therefore, must wait upon comprehensive mathematical-modelling work which has not yet been carried out. Nevertheless, it is already possible to derive some order-of-magnitude results.

How far would the energy-consumption equations be modified by including indirect energy consumption, or by shifting to an average rather than marginal basis for estimating energy consumption? In the absence of detailed energy input-output analyses of transactions between the telecommunications common carriers and their suppliers, no definitive answer can be given, but there are strong indications that the inclusion of indirect energy consumption would shift the comparison further in favour of telecommunications. Studies of motor transport in the USA suggest that indirect energy consumption adds between 30 and 90% to the energy used directly. 7 A comparison of aggregate results from input-output studies suggests that the proportion would be considerably less for telecommunications: an input-output study by INSEE in France showed that a 100% price increase on all energy sources would cause only a 1.9% cost increase for telecommunications as against 12.7% for transport? The inclusion of overhead energy consumption by transport and telecommunication organisations in the calculations would not significantly alter the conclusions, although it would add substantially to the absolute rate of energy use attributed to telecommunications and transport.

The feasibility of substitution

The theoretical energy-saving possibilities will be of little interest unless it is shown that telecommunications are genuinely likely to replace travel on a significant scale. As Figure 4 illustrates, three issues must be resolved:

• What share (if any) of the present or future volume of person- to-person communication (of those kinds not presently dealt with by telephone) will involve telecommunication rather than travel in the future (the diversion effect)?

• Will improved communication stimulate a greater volume of communication overall, partly or even wholly offsetting the energy gains achieved by substitution (the generation effect)?

• In what ways will the pattern of travel and telecommunication in space and time be modified (the modification effect)?

Various approaches have been pursued in attempts to answer the first question. All the evidence shows that there can be no universal answer: the degree of substitution will depend on the purposes of the journey, its characteristics (such as cost and duration), and travellers' attitudes (how much they are prepared to pay to save time).

One research approach, pursued by Bell Canada, has been to conduct surveys of business travellers, presenting to them the hypothetical telecommunications alternative and seeking their views as to whether their trip could be substituted. Bell Canada's 1973

26 T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S POLICY December 1976

Figure 4: Possible impacts of teleconference systems.

Signed arrows illustrate the direction and sign of the influence of one variable on another.

9 Kollen and Garwood (1975) op cit.


Improved comDehhveness of teleconference

systems (el fechveness, occeptobddy ond cost )

Rote of geoqrophlcoI ~ Overoll level of dispersol of office(and comrnumcot~on activity possibly other) work ~ J j

Shore of overoll

1 + / .... +o _jJ

trofflc traffic

T survey of travellers in routes between Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec, and Toronto, involving 9619 respondents, indicated that 20% of the trips reported would not have been made had an acceptable telecommunications alternative been available. 9

Data were also collected relating perceived trip substitutability and attitudes to travel to the characteristics of the respondent and the trip. The results on attitudes were particularly striking: 37% of respondents would have preferred to travel less, and only 15% would have preferred to travel more. The preference for reducing the amount of travel was especially pronounced among frequent travellers.

An alternative approach adopted in the UK work has given less emphasis to the direct questioning of present-day travellers, on the grounds that they may have difficulty in realistically anticipating their future behaviour. Instead, an effort has been made to derive conclusions about probable future use of, and choices between, communication media by inferences from communications-survey data, economic analysis, and behavioural research on the effectiveness and acceptability of various modes of communication. Work of this kind on business communication has been conducted in the UK in collaboration between the Communications Studies Group (CSG) at University College, London, who undertook the fundamental behavioural studies and much survey research, and the Long Range Studies Division (LRS) of Post Office Telecommunications, who have undertaken the synthesis of this work in the form of models of communication activity and demand, and related policy studies on service innovations and energy and transportation impacts.

Summarising very broadly the results of the psychological studies of the CSG, based on controlled laboratory experiments, both audio and audio-visual teleconference systems are effective and acceptable for meetings involving information exchange, routine decision making, cooperative problem solving, or 'brainstorming'. Where 'getting to know people' or bargaining are concerned, however, audio systems are definitely less satisfactory than face-to- face communication; audio-visual systems are preferable to audio- only, but are still not as good as a face-to-face meeting. Finally, where significant conflicts are involved, the choice of communication

T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S P O L I C Y D e c e m b e r 1 9 7 6 2 7


Video substitution 1%

Foce to J~

Figure 5: Mode allocation results for business-meet ing traffic, 1985. Results are stated as percentage of average daily f low of trips to business meetings.

Source- M. Tyler, 'Developments in telecommunications: the implications for transport', Long Range Studies Division, Post Office Telecommunications, Cambridge, England 1976 (see Ref. 16).

lo 'The effectiveness of person-to-person telecommunications systems', Com- munications Studies Group, issued as Long Range Research Report 3, Long Range Studies Division, Post Office Telecommunications, London, 1975. 11 R. Pye et al, 'The description and classification of meetings', Com- munications Studies Group, Report P/73160/PY, University College, London, 1973. 12 M. Tyler, B. Cartwright, and H. Collins, 'Prospects for teleconferencing', Intelligence Bulletin 9, Long Range Studies Division, Post Office Telecom- munications, Cambridge, England, 1976. 13D.W. Jones, "Must we travel? The potential of communication as a sub- stitute for travel', Research Report 5, Department of Communications, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 1973. ~4 D. Michie, 'On machine intelligence', Halsted Press, John Wiley, New York, 1974, p 198.

medium has complex effects on the outcome and the CSG researchers have chosen, conservatively, to assume that people will avoid the uncertainties of teleconferencing in such cases, l° Considerable support for these conclusions has emerged from studies of teleconferencing field trials. The next stage in the chain of inference was to use a classification of meeting activities based on interview studies to link the psychological evidence for different types of communication tasks with communication surveys, indicating how frequently these tasks arise in different types of meetings and how frequently each type of meeting takes place, u

This work, together with evidence from economic analyses (which show audio teleconferencing as highly cost-competitive with travel, but video systems as only marginally so in the present state of technology), has formed the basis for the LRS demand-modelling studies which have generated estimates of the potential 'market share' that different teleconference systems may obtain in the overall total of business meetings once the opportunities have been fully exploited. This may, of course, require many years of adaptation. 12

Results of one recent model run designed to assess the potential impact of substitution on travel to meetings are given in Figure 5. To obtain the impact on total business travel, it is necessary to know what proportion of such travel is to meetings: the Bell Canada survey and other data suggest that this proportion is about 75%, but highly detailed data on trip purposes are rare and further work is urgently needed. Provisionally, however, it may be concluded that the model- based analysis suggests a substitution potential of just over 25%.

This convergence of results from the 'direct question' approach and the model-based approach suggests that a reasonable degree of confidence maybe placed in these provisional results. For trips with purposes other than business, the problem of substitutability remains largely unresolved. This is unfortunate, since the possibility of replacing the journey to work by a work-at-home scheme based on telecommunications is clearly of great importance in economic and energy terms. Jones has estimated that 22% of all jobs in the San Francisco Bay Area in 1965 were of types amenable to work-at-home schemes. ~3 The corresponding figures for the city of San Francisco and its central business district are 31% and 47%. The potential substitutability of other types of trips should not be dismissed lightly. Technological change (eg the combination of private cars, large deep- freeze units, and wholesale warehouses) has already brought about vast changes in shopping habits, despite claims that shopping is a preferred source of personal contact for most shoppers, and the past impact of television on attendance at cinemas is well known. Some visionaries go so far as to claim that trip purposes that are very generally regarded as non-substitutable are in fact substitutable. Professor Michie of Edinburgh University, a leading researcher in the Artificial Intelligence field, writes

'Just as the office worker in the era of the universal computer network, so the factory

worker may be able to ply his trade at home via high speed video links and the rest of the

apparatus of the tele-operator technology. Some expert observers foresee large-scale

developments along this line in the 1980s.' J4

What immediate evidence is available to judge either the Bell Canada or LRS substitutability estimates, or the more visionary concepts?


is J.F. Tomey, "The field trial of audio conferencing with the Union Trust Company', Contract No H2104R, New Rural Society Project, Fairfield University, Fairfield, Connecticut, 1974. 16 M. Tyler, "Developments in telecommunications: the impl icat ions for transport', Long Range Studies Division, Post Office Telecommunications, Cam- bridge, England, 1976. To be reprinted in Telecommunication Impacts, ed R.C. Smith, Department of the Environment, London. 1~ The widespread view that the observed correlation between transport and telecommunications traffic indicates such a generation effect is incorrect, since both series are highly correlated with rising in- come and population levels. Similarly, the observed use of the telephone for making travel arrangements, etc tells us little about the overall balance of substitution and generation effects. ~SPersonal communication, S. Fordyce and M. Connors, NASA. 19 Tyler (1976) op cit. zo R.C. Harkness, q'elecommunications substitutes for travel', Office of Telecom- municat ions, US Depa r tmen t of Commerce, Special Report 73-2, NTIS No COM-74-10075, 1973.


Only the direct substitution of business trips by teleconferencing can be observed in present field-trial systems, although there are numerous scattered examples of people working from home, aided by telecommunication and/or computer systems; other cases of interest (such as the impact of the telephone on shopping habits) have so far attracted little research. Experience with audio teleconference systems in the Bank of America and Union Trust banks in the USA have led to reports of extensive travel substitution: according to Tomey, 'almost all participants in the trial substituted use of the system for at least 50% of their face-to-face meetings. Over one third substituted for 80% or more . . . '~

If the feasibility of business-trip substitution has been demonstrated convincingly, another experience with audio teleconferencing recalls the message of Figure 4: that travel-generation effects might offset the gains from substitution. While some theoretical considerations and field-trial data suggest that these effects will often be small, ~n.~7 the experience of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the USA has been that, while extensive travel substitution does indeed occur, in a situation where travel budgets are already constrained the savings in time and money on some kinds of routine travel may be applied to additional travel for other purposes, for example to scientific meetings. 18 Overall, whether net travel substitution or generation occurs will depend on the kind of policies adopted by governments and individual organisations for controlling the social and private costs of travel. Clearly, from an energy- economy point of view it is desirable to minimise the travel-generation effect, but even in the extreme case where the introduction of advanced telecommunications results in increased travel, the overall energy efficiency of the (increased) amount of communication taking place will have increased, since a larger share of the total will be carried by telecommunications.

There are other ways in which telecommunications may modify travel behaviour. Numerous possible effects have been considered, such as a tendency to make the average trip longer and to stimulate inter-regional trade in goods, 19 but undoubtedly the most important effects involve linked changes in workplace location, land use, and the journey to work. Such changes could modify many non-transport aspects of a city's energy consumption as well as the energy used for all kinds of trip making. We have touched on the most extreme of these alternatives, the work-at-home option, but less extreme scenarios involving satellite centres, random dispersal, and neighbourhood work centres have also been suggested. 2° So far these remain hypotheses, but an extensive programme of work on this subject is being pursued at the Stanford Research Institute, and will result in a major report in the near future.

The overall magnitude of energy savings

Given the evidence on the impact of telecommunications and the feasibility of substitution, it already seems worthwhile to estimate the possible energy savings in aggregate terms, despite the great uncertainties that remain.

Beginning again with business-travel substitution, assuming that the substitution occurs on the scale we envisaged, and that the policy environment (eg in terms of prices and budgeting for energy and



21 Some 60% of all passenger miles travelled in Canada are Ol3 intercity trips. 58 and 56% of all automobile and bus/rail passenger miles respectively are intercity. However, because intercity and urban automobile efficiencies differ, intercity automobile travel accounts for only 38% of the automobile's total energy consumption. Overall, intercity travel accounts for 48% of Canada's passenger transportation energy demand. zz R.C. Harkness (1973) op cit. 23 C.E. Lathey, 'Telecommunication sub- stitutabil ity for travel: an energy conservation potential ', Office of Telecom- mun ica t i ons , US D e p a r t m e n t of Commerce, Report 75-58, 1975.

travel) is such as to stimulate substitution and minimise generation effects, how much energy can be saved? Katsoulis's estimate of the savings that could be realised by the replacement by telecommunications of 20% of Canadian intercity business travel amounts to 3% of the total energy consumption by the transport sector in Canada. This is equivalent to 1.3% of national petroleum consumption or about 0 .8% of total energy use. 2~

In the UK, where distances are shorter and the use of air travel is less prevalent, very approximate estimates suggest that about ~% of total energy use could be avoided in this way.

To this must be added an allowance for the amount of direct trip substitution likely to occur within metropolitan areas. This may prove to be a longer-term prospect than intercity substitution. Few detailed or reliable analyses of intrametropolitan travel impacts have been made, but rough estimates made in the UK suggest that the energy savings may be on the same scale as the savings achievable in intercity travel.

There are several other processes which could lead to energy savings:

• Total or partial avoidance of the journey to work by means of workplace dispersal.

• Substitution of personal travel for non-work purposes. • Substitution of goods transportation that in fact serves to

transfer information (especially mail). • Improvements in the energy efficiency of transportation due to

the use of telecommunications-based information and control systems, as in the case of radio control of fleets of delivery vehicles, or 'dial-a-ride' public transportation.

In all these areas, detailed quantitative estimates of total energy savings based on solid research foundations are lacking. Some fragmentary indications do exist, however; Harkness has carried out some exploratory calculation of energy savings from workplace dispersal. 22 Work on the unit energy savings from mail substitution has been carried out in the Australian Post Office, and Lathey 23 has estimated that control of goods-vehicle fleets can result in fuel savings of up to 40%, and concluded from studies of four US cities that such control systems may be yielding savings of 1.3 x 1 0 9 gallons of gasoline annually by 1980 in those four cities.

It is clearly premature to attempt an estimate of the combined energy-saving potential of these various effects, but it does not seem unreasonable to suppose that the overall total may be in the range of 1 to 3% of total energy consumption, or up to 5% of petroleum consumption, depending on national conditions.

Policy implications It has already been emphasised that the realisation of the possible energy savings will depend on public policies. The policies for transportation, telecommunications, urban and regional planning, and publicly funded research and development are all relevant.

The availability of telecommunications alternatives to travel of proven effectiveness and acceptability, at least in a limited range of



roles, strengthens the economic and environmental case for limiting the role of transport, or at least ensuring that the prices of transport services and vehicles, and of the energy used in transport, fully reflect social costs.

Government transportation policies, acting through economic or legal policy levers, although initially directed at transportation in isolation can also stimulate the substitution of telecommunications for travel. Economic incentives in the form of direct taxes, or higher fuel prices, could serve to increase overall propulsion efficiency as well as induce teleconferencing by discouraging travel. Such policy could be applied to private-car use in several ways:

• The government could charge the buyer a lump-sum tax per vehicle bought. This tax might, for example, be inversely related to the fuel consumption of the vehicle.

• Governments could collect a tax from the automobile manufacturers based on the number of high gas-consuming vehicles produced in a given year; the tax would then be wholly or partly passed on to their customers.

• An annual surtax imposed on the annual registration fee of larger-engine automobiles could be applied.

• A system of penalties levied according to vehicle weight, yet another means of reducing the use of inefficient vehicles, is currently being applied in Canada.

Such policies attempt to reduce the inefficiencies in energy consumption by working through the economic system and specifically by rationing through the price mechanism.

Nevertheless, further direct legal restrictions may ultimately have to be imposed on passenger-car access to business districts and other heavily congested urban centres. Car pools could ideally give some relief in this situation, and ease future threats of petroleum shortages. North America's 'one occupant per car' habit is simply too costly in terms of energy to be continued. Unfortunately, this suggestion is bound to be met with massive psychological resistance. The privacy, convenience, and 'splendour of isolation' offered by the passenger car is something which many will not want to give up, although incentives such as the allocation of speedier 'car-pool only' lanes by municipalities, or discriminatory tolls on highways, bridges and tunnels, are instances of governments trying to make car pools more attractive. Clearly, car pooling cannot be expected to sweep the Western nations overnight. Much the same may be said of attempts to shift the 'modal split' of travel, especially the journey to work, in favour of public transportation: a good deal can be achieved along these lines by traffic restraint, financial incentives, and public-transport subsidies. But with the exception of journeys to work in the central business districts of the largest cities, public transport remains very much the minority mode of travel, especially in the USA where the pattern of land use has already become very diffuse under the influence of mass private-car ownership. Indeed, the influence of the convenience factor is such that it may ultimately prove easier to achieve outright substitution of some kinds of trips by telecommunications than to achieve a major shift in the choice of transport mode for those trips that will continue to be made.

Urban and regional planning policies are also likely to be of great



importance in determining whether the potential savings of energy inherent in advanced telecommunications technology are achieved. Such policies can be designed to reinforce an optimal transport and communications policy, which in turn can help to guide urban development according to the preferred pattern. In particular, land- use planning policies may well determine whether there is an orderly process of workplace dispersal to 'satellite centres' or 'neighbourhood centres' associated with reduced commuting and environmental improvements, or an uncontrolled 'urban sprawl' in which journeys to work continue to be long.

In addition to such macroscopic policies, government and other organisations who wish to exploit the energy-saving potential of telecommunications can do so through a large number of smaller- scale actions that encourage public and private organisations to adopt teleconferencing and travel-economy programmes. The latter might even include workplace-dispersal arrangements designed to reduce commuting. One useful step might be to implement such programmes in the public sector. The process might also be extended to a policy of encouraging public contractors to minimise travel costs and link into government teleconferencing or other communication networks. A general programme of exhortation and demonstration projects designed to make organisations aware of the advantages of telecommunications-based travel economy could usefully supplement such direct actions.

A policy of telecommunications substitution does not necessarily make any demands on the telecommunications common carrier beyond the willingness to provide teleconference services, and the infrastructure for the office-automation services needed for workplace dispersal when necessary. There is, however, a clear common interest between the carrier, the equipment manufacturer, and government in actively promoting these innovative uses of telecommunications. Since new and sometimes complex managerial and behavioural issues are involved in making a success of such initiatives (as the very mixed though sometimes very successful history of teleconferencing illustrates) sophisticated planning and marketing will be required. This emphasises the need for early planning, preparation and research.

Energy-related telecommunications research has focused on attempts to estimate the direct energy consumption of travel and telecommunications. Insufficient accumulation of historical data and limited resources have precluded researchers from undertaking an extensive analysis to assess the energy impacts of substitution on transport and telecommunication infrastructures. This approach is necessary for the evaluation of long-term marginal direct and indirect energy requirements. Research is also needed to study the impacts of energy-related telecommunications policies not only on energy resources but on economic, regulatory, institutional, and social levels. Will the new technology be a threat to privacy and security? Will there be a loss of personal interaction? Will substitution have a significant impact on employment in the transportation sector? While this article has been focused on only one variable, policies directed at inducing people to change their present communication habits must be subjected to an intensive assessment of economic, social, technical, and institutional impacts, as well as of their feasibility, before efforts are made to implement them on a large scale. Intensified field trial and experimental activity would improve the realism of preparatory work.


telecommunications and energy policy

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