telecommunication systems: how is technology change creating new opportunities in them?

1. A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore How is Technological Change Creating New Rapid Improvements in Telecommunication Systems and the Emergence of Opportunities 10th Session of MT5009 For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

2. Recent Problem that could have been Solved Faster with Better Telecom http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/20/us- malaysia-airlines-blackbox- idUKBREA2J02H20140320

3. Another System that is Emerging from Improvements in Telecom Smart home: http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2014/03/0 4/t-bachelor-pad-controlled-by- smartphone.cnnmoney/index.html?iid=V_Series Or what about Facebooks acquisition of Oculus VR, An integration of Oculus VR with FB requires better telecommunication systems

4. Objectives What has and is driving improvements in cost and performance of telecommunication systems? Can we use such information to identify new types of telecommunication systems? analyze potential for improvements in these new systems? compare new and old systems now and in future? better understand when new systems might become technically and economically feasible? analyze the opportunities in higher level systems that created by these new systems? New applications for Internet, cloud computing, e.g., more Big Data or uploading of medical and scientific data understand technology change in general

5. Session Technology 1 Objectives and overview of course 2 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling 4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems 5 MEMS and Bio-electronic ICs 6 Nanotechnology and DNA sequencing 7 Superconductivity and solar cells 8 Lighting and Displays (also roll-to roll printing) 9 Human-computer interfaces 10 Telecommunications and Internet 11 3D printing and energy storage This is Part of the Ninth Session of MT5009

6. As Noted in Previous Session, Two main mechanisms for improvements Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomenon Geometrical scaling Increases in scale Reductions in scale Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in components

7. Both Relevant to Telecommunications, but primarily indirectly Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomenon Better materials for fiber (e.g., higher purity glass) lead to better fiber optic cable Geometrical scaling in photonics and other components Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in components Better laser diodes, photosensors, amplifiers, other ICs, MEMS, and displays lead to better telecommunication systems

8. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics (and ICs) Photonics Wireless Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon) Non-Voice Wireless Cognitive Radio Visible Light Communication

9. Data Rates have Risen for Telecommunication Systems Optical Fiber Synchronous Optical Network

10. Speeds/Bandwidth for Wireline Telecommunication Source: Koh H and Magee C, 2006, A function approach for studying technological progress: application to Information technology, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73: 1061-1983.

11. But.the last mile is the bottleneck Last mile from main trunk lines to homes determines data rates for that home Installing optical fiber can require expensive digging particularly in rural areas Much cheaper to install optical fiber in urban areas, particularly in dense urban areas new buildings in urban area This is why densely populated Asian countries have much higher usage of fiber to the home

12. Source: Rural Telecom (U.S.), March-April, 2011

13. Different kinds of Systems ADSL (Asymmetric digital subscriber line) for copper lines utilizes broader range of frequencies than do voice calls (over copper line) Asymmetric means that downloading speeds are faster than uploading speeds VDSL (very high speed DSL) for copper lines similar to but faster than ADSL EPON/GPON: Ethernet passive optical networks, gigabit passive optical networks WDM-PON: Wavelength division multiplexing DOCSIS: Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification

14. Increased Speeds/Bandwidth Leads to Shorter Downloading, Uploading Times Fiber to the Home Cable TV Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL)

15. Other Downloading and Uploading Requirements

16. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics Photonics Wireless Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon) Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods Cognitive Radio Visible Light Communication

17. Big Reason for Improved Data Rates is that Optical Fiber has More Capacity A single fiber can carry more communications than the copper cable in the background where light stays within glass fiber Bundling many of these glass fibers together can provide very high bandwidth for many users

18. Why do Optical Fibers Have More Capacity? More photons can be packed in a small space than can electrons because photons have less interaction with each other than do electrons Photons mostly interact with glass fiber Electrons interfere with each other partly because they have waves and because they emit photons, which are absorbed by other electrons Source: communication with Aaron Danner, Associate Professor, NUS

19. Another advantage of fiber: While the speeds for fiber are independent of distance, the speeds for VDSL and ADSL depend on distance

20. A Fiber Optic-Based System Electronic System (e.g., ICs) Electronic System (e.g., ICs) Speeds and bandwidth depend on purity (and thus optical loss) and type (e.g., graded index) of glass, performance of lasers/ LEDs, photodiodes, IC-based amplifiers, and other ICs

21. 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 OpticalLoss(db/km) Figure 2.9 Reductions in Optical Loss of Optical Fiber NAS/NRC, 1989. Materials Science and Engineering for the 1990s. National Academy Press Reductions in Optical Loss by Increasing Purity of Glass

22. Source: Fiber-Optic Communication Systems, Govind P. Agrawal, Institute of Optics, University of Rochester Other Improvements: five generations of fiber

23. First Two Generations Plus Previous One Single-index fiber Graded-index fiber: Refractive index refers to speed of light in material. Less modal dispersion (different parts of pulse travel at different speeds) due to higher refractive index at center Single mode fiber: Narrow cables only support single mode and 1.3 micron wavelength has less dispersion

24. Most Recent Three Generations Single mode lasers, 1.55 micron laser Lasers with a very narrow line width of wavelengths where 1.55 micron wavelength had fewer losses. WDM, Optical amplifiers Wave length division (WDM) multiplex enables multiple messages to be sent down one fiber, each with a different carrier frequency Erbium doped fiber amplifier replaces electronic amplification Raman amplification

25. Wavelength-Division Multiplexing (WDM)

26. Many Improvements in Lasers Helped In addition to the improvements cited above, other improvements also helped One way to measure performance of laser diodes is in terms of threshold current, i.e., minimum current needed for lasing to occur this enables lower power consumption lower currents come from lower threshold current densities

27. Source: Materials Today 14(9) September 2011, Pages 388397 Reductions in Threshold Current, i.e., Minimum Current Needed for Lasing to Occur, enable lower power consumption

28. Faster ICs, Moores Law has also Helped Faster ICs are needed to handle the data that is sent into a fiber or received from a fiber (shown earlier for Ethernet Cable) Sometimes called Moores Law, smaller feature sizes enable increases in the number of transistors per chip, which leads to faster processing power Without these faster ICs, the faster speeds of fiber optics would be meaningless

29. Are there Limits? Can we keep increasing the speeds of fiber optic cable? Can we keep increasing the number of wavelengths that are used in a single fiber optic line? Can we keep increasing the performance of laser diodes? There appears to be no physical limits to expanding the number of wavelengths of light that are used in a fiber optic system A new approach called orbital angular momentum may offer additional improvements (Science 340, 28 June 2013, p. 1513) It also appears that we are a long way from reaching

30. Current Bottlenecks to Faster Data Rates In telecommunication systems, it is ICs and conversion between electrons and photons In computers, it is board level interconnect Light travels faster than do electrons But what if we could replace the silicon-based processors with optical devices? combine processors and optical devices on a single silicon chip? replace board-level interconnect with optics?

32. Can we make all optical devices on a Silicon Chip?

33. Evolution of Si-Photonics is in Parallel with Improvements in Si-Based ICs: For the most part, both benefit from reductions in scale

34. Do Photonics Benefit from Reductions in Scale? Photonics are a form of MEMS Some types of MEMS benefit from reductions in scale Greater resolution with ink Jet Printer Greater detection with micro-gas analyzers Greater frequency for resonators in mobile phone filters Greater resolution for digital micro mirrors For photonics, Performance may improve as feature sizes become smaller At least until feature sizes reach wavelength of light (380- 750 nm) Thus cost of processing data with ICs is much lower than processing data with optical components

35. Laser types shown above the wavelength bar emit light with a specific wavelength while ones below the bar can emit in a wavelength range. Another Problem: Only some lasers are made with semiconductor materials and most of them are made with non-silicon based semiconductor materials (III-V materials)

36. One exception:

37. Since the Holy Grail of Photonics (put everything on one chip) seems Far in the Future, More Emphasis on Other Goals Improve Conversion Between Optical and Electrical or OEO (optical-to-electrical-to- optical) conversion Large bottleneck Very expensive Use optical instead of electrical interconnect Start with board level interconnect

38. http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/whitepapers/Photonic_Integrated_Circuits.pdf Cost of Conversion (Accessing) vs. Cost of Manipulating the Data Figure 4. The cost of optical components required to implement an OEO conversion are significant compared to the cost of electronic ICs used to manipulation the data in the electronic domain.

39. Photonics attempts to reduce the cost of converting optical to electronic signals and visa versa (OEO) http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/whitepapers/Photonic_Integrated_Circuits.pdf

40. http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/whitepapers/Photonic_Integrated_Circuits.pdf Infinera Integrates Many Discrete Components on one Chip

41. http://www.opticsinfobase.org/oe/fulltext.cfm?uri=oe-19-26-B154&id=224463 Dramatic Improvements with Indium Phosphide Dense Wave Division Multiplexing Photonic ICs

42. Infinera also Reports Rapid Improvement with Indium Phosphide Source: Infinera

43. Other Materials are Also Possible Indium Phosphide Build all components including lasers and transistors on Indium Phosphide substrate Leader is Infinera Hybrids Use silicon for transistors and some photonic components such as filters, (de)multiplexers, splitters, modulators and photo-detectors Using III/V materials for electro- refractive modulators, electro-absorption modulators, laser diodes, and optical amplifiers III/V materials are added to silicon chip using wafer bonding

44. http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-49/issue-07/features/photonic-frontiers-silicon-photonics-silicon-photonics- evolve-to-meet-real-world-requirements.html Progress is being made. But a long way to go..

45. An all Silicon Conversion Chip? All components except the laser are on this chip from IBM Red feature at left side of cube is a germanium detector fabricated on silicon Blue feature at right with beam entering it is the modulator. Yellow areas are conductors The small red dots at lower right are silicon transistors Published on 15 July 2013 www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-49/issue-07/features/photonic-frontiers-silicon-photonics-silicon-photonics-evolve-to-meet-real-world-requirements.html

46. Since the Holy Grail of Photonics (put everything on one chip) is Far in the Future, More Emphasis on Other Goals Improve Conversion Between Optical and Electrical Large bottleneck Very expensive Use optical instead of electrical interconnect Start with board level interconnect Gradually move towards on-chip interconnect where photonics represents another layer on a

47. NANOPHOTONICS: ACCESSIBILITY AND APPLICABILITY, National Academies Press Direction of trend

48. Fast Optical to Electrical Conversion: Intels Light Peak HDD: hard disk drive SSD: solid state drive

49. (High Performance Computing Systems) Floatingpointoperationspersecond

50. Optical Routing Layer is Another Layer on a 3D Chip http://www.slashgear.com/ibm-silicon-nanophotonics-speeds-servers-with-25gbps-light-10260108/ IBM silicon nanophotonics speeds servers with 25Gbps light, Chris Davies, Dec 10th 2012

51. Lots of opportunities for firms to offer optical solutions But also faster computers and telecommunication systems will continue to emerge What does this mean for processing, Big Data and uploading more data to the cloud E.g., medical and other applications DNA sequencers Astronomy Particle accelerators

53. Source: http://www.sdrinsider.com/2010/01/spectral-efficiency/ For Wireless, Spectral Efficiency is Important (limited resource), both for Voice and Data

54. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee (bitspersecond/Hz)

55. Better Efficiency Comes from New Wireless Systems and Better Components Private mobile systems (from 1920s) Cellular phone systems enabled frequency spectrum to be reused in each cell, cell sizes can also be reduced Analog (1980s) Digital, i.e., 2nd Generation (1990s) 3rd Generation (2000s) 4th Generation (2010s) 2nd, 3rd, and 4th generation systems provide further increases in efficiency of frequency spectrum they use better algorithms and require better ICs Better ICs also enable smaller cells

56. Private Mobile: Cellular Phone Systems Single Transmitter Multiple Transmitters Frequency Spectrum: Inefficient utilization Efficient utilization Wavelength: Long Short Cost per Capacity: High Low

57. New Generations of Mobile Phone Systems Provide further increases in efficiency of frequency spectrum 2G Digital Mostly GSM (global system mobile) Based on TDMA (Time division multiple access) 3G (UMTS): Mostly W-CDMA (wide band code division multiplex) 4G: Mobile WiMax and Long Term Evolution (LTE) Newer generations use more sophisticated algorithms and they require better ICs Standards determined in standard setting activities

58. New Generations of Mobile Phone Systems Require More Sophisticated Algorithms and thus Better ICs RelativePerformance 100,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 10,000 100 1 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 IC Performance Mobile phone system demands 2G 3G 1G Source: Subramanian, R. 1999. Shannon vs. Moore: Digital Signal Processing in the Broadband Age, in Proceedings of the 1999 IEEE Communications Theory Workshop

59. Its not just performance, ICs also determine costs of phones ICs: 124.46 Other materials: 48.00 Total bill of materials: 172.46 Manufacturing costs 6.50 Grand total $178.96 Source: //gigaom.com/apple/iphone-3gs-hardware-cost-breakdown/

60. Source: http://www.isuppli.com/ Teardowns/News/Pages/ iPhone-4-Carries-Bill-of- Materials-of-187-51- According-to-iSuppli. aspx

61. Source: Gonzalez, Embedded Multicore Processing for Mobile Communication Systems http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/integriertesysteme/ emuco/files/hipeac_trends_future.pdf GPRS: general packet radio service EDGE: enhanced data generation environment UMTS: universal mobile telecommunications systems HSPA: high speed packet access LTE: long term evolution Another Way to Look at How Improved ICs Enable New Systems

62. Looking from the other Direction: How New Systems Require Better ICs and Batteries

63. Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future, presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October 19-20.

64. Technology Gaps Algorithmic Complexity Gap Demands for faster processing speeds outpace improvements in Moores Law One solution is multi-core processors Power Reduction Gap Reduce voltages in order to reduce power consumption, but this also reduces processing speeds Need better balance between performance and power consumption of phones Memory access time Gap Requires smarter memory organization in phones

65. New Demands on Mobile Phones Another reason for these gaps is that music, video, etc. requires additional processing Thus, better ICs are also needed to handle internal processing of data (not just accessing data from network) And enable all kinds of new applications! Better MEMS, bio-electronics are also important Mobile phones are becoming the platform for our lives

66. But Phones Keep Getting Better Source: Source International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013. http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf

68. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee (kilobitspersecond)

69. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee

70. Source: International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013. http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf

71. Source: International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013. http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf

72. Data Rates Per Second for Various Distances of Wireless Transmission (Note the Source) Source: Source International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013. http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf

73. This source and the International Solid State Circuits Conference attribute the improvements in speeds to improvements in ICs Again, Its All About Better ICs

74. http://www.bretswanson.com/index.php/category/mobile/

75. Similar Things are Happening Everywhere http://www.statistik.pts.se/PTSnordic/NordicCountries2012/Diagram2012_7.htm

76. http://sites.duke.edu/marx/category/telecom/spectrum-telecom/ Running out of Spectrum..

77. We are also Interested in Short Range Wireless Technologies Source: AStar, Kausik Mandal NFC: Near Field Communication Range Data Rate Previous slides focused on this range

78. 82 Range (m) Data Networking 802.11a/b/g/n 11n promises 100Mbps @ 100m Quality of service, streaming Room-range High-definition UWB Bluetooth UWB Short Distance Fast download 110Mbps @ 10m 480Mbps @ 3m 110Mbps @ 10m DataRate(Mbps) 1000 100 10 1 1 10 100 Another Way to Look at Short Range Wireless Technologies Sources: MicrosoftCorporation,Texas Instruments : Ultra Wide Band

79. Why do we Care about Short Distances? Exchange music, video, and other files with friends and with other devices and do this without wires and cables But also for data exchanges between devices such as light switches, electric meters how about between devices in airplane or car? How can we do this fast and without using a lot of frequency spectrum? One new approach is ultra-wide band We can also use short range wireless to connect phones with wireline fiber optic systems

80. Near Field Communication Also has Many Applications Source: AStar, Kausik Mandal

81. 85Source: IntelCorporation What is UWB: Any wireless transmission scheme that occupies a fractional Bandwidth, BW/fc > 20% or absolute BW > 500MHz.

82. Are There Limits to Data Speeds? What are limits for increasing efficiency of frequency spectrum? Improvements are limited by Shannons Law: C=B*log(1+S/N) C = information capacity (bits per second) B = bandwidth; S = signal power; N = noise In theory, gamma rays, which oscillate at 1024 Hz, can be used to transmit data However, to modulate at this frequency, you have to sample the waveform at twice that rate and the ICs or MEMS to do this might not be available for many years Could a one nanometer mechanical resonator provide 1015 bits per second?

84. What is Cognitive Radio? Ability to access many different frequencies with a single device As opposed to allocating a specific frequency to mobile phones, cordless phones, broadcast television This enables a larger range of frequencies to be shared among devices Many allocated frequencies are unused because the systems have not been implemented

85. Like Other Mobile Phone Systems The key bottleneck is ICs: Need ICs that can quickly and cheaply change frequencies Current prototype requires 2.75 billion transistors At 4 x 10-8 USD per transistor, price is about 110 USD Current base-band processors are priced at about 25 USD When will the price reach 25 USD? Also need antennas/filters that can access many different frequencies could MEMS or nano-technology provide these antennas? Source: Spring 2010 MT5009 final group presentation

86. Average transistor price falls to point at which IC costs 25 USD

87. Using an ASIC would further reduce the price/cost of the IC

88. New Antenna/Filter is also needed An antenna that can handle a variety of frequency bands is needed In session 4, such a MEMS-based filter was discussed Small resonators handle specific frequency bands Because they are so small, it is possible to place many such resonators on a single IC chip And such a nano-based resonator was discussed One molecule device In the short run, more traditional antennas can be used

89. Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures

90. Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures; RF BPF: radio frequency bypass filte

95. Faster frequencies mean potentially faster speeds

96. Made possible by improvements in lasers, LEDs, and photo-sensors Also ICs, for interpreting reflections so that direct line of sight is not necessary

97. Conclusions (1) Improvements in telecommunication system performance have and are still occurring both in Wireline Wireless These improvements have involved For wireline, finding better materials for fiber optic cable and utilizing improvements in lasers, amplifiers, and ICs For wireless, utilizing new system designs such as cellular, smaller cells, or CDMA, which have been helped by improvements in ICs These changes have created many types of

98. Conclusions (2) Demand for faster data speeds and higher bandwidth applications provide motivation for improvements There may be no limits to improvements in fiber optic systems But the bottleneck for Internet may become interface between computer and fiber optical cable may require an all optical system, including silicon lasers new designs and advances in science may also be needed in order to produce silicon-based lasers use of optical interconnect within computers is more likely

99. Conclusions (3) For wireless, there may also be no limits to improvements As long as improvements in ICs continue to be made, improvements in systems can occur Improvements in ICs and antennas may also enable cognitive radio Cognitive radio can enable further improvements in the effective use of the frequency spectrum But If Moores Law slows, however.

100. What does this tell us about the Future? Improvements in Telecommunication Systems will lead to more uploading and downloading of data What applications will succeed? Cloud computing will continue to diffuse, as will Big Data analysis But which applications within cloud computing? What kinds of systems will be developed? More medical and scientific applications DNA sequencing Other medical applications from wearable computing Scientific applications such as particle accelerators, astronomy

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