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Tel : +852-2277-6678

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THE WEEKLY AGENDA

Phillip Talks: The week ahead in gold and stocks

Thai stock market outlook: Sideways, awaiting new catalysts More lockdown easing eyed: The coronavirus situation in Thailand has

improved continuously the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) is set to assess the first stage of the relaxation of disease control restrictions. All eyes will be on the second stage of the easing which includes reopening of shopping malls on May 17.

Renewed US-China trade tension: US President Donald Trump threatened to terminate the phase one trade deal if China fails to fulfill its promise of buying more American goods and services. He also threatened new tariffs on China in retaliation for its role in the coronavirus crisis.

May OPEC+ meeting set to determine oil price: After a smaller-than-expected reduction in output at last month's OPEC+ meeting, the bloc will hold another meeting this month to discuss additional cuts. However, there seems to be conflicting views among state members about the cuts.

SET strategy: The SETI is expected to move sideways in a range between 1230 and 1310 points. If it can hold above 1240 points, there is potential for the index to move higher and retest the 1300-point resistance.

SET50 futures trading strategy: Trade S50M20 with a short-term profit target between 820 and 860 points.

Gold Outlook: Sideways up, possible retest of $1750 Sideways with upside bias: The US Dollar Index starts to weaken

again as unemployment rolls continue to swell and retail sales estimates still show no sign of recovery. Meanwhile, the possible resumption of the US-China trade war underlines the global economic uncertainty. All these factors are likely to prompt investors to seek refuge in the safe-haven metal.

Gold futures trading strategy: Open long GOM20 in a range of US$1,700 - US$1,720/oz. in anticipation of an upward move towards a profit target of US$1,750/oz. Place a stop loss at US$1,685/oz.

Strategy Team #487

Key event coming up this week May 10 OPEC+ meeting to discuss additional output cut

May 12 Thai govt to collect and assess data about the first stage of relaxed Covid-19 measures

Economic data on tap this week May 12

US : Core CPI, CPI (m-m) (Apr)

May 13 US : Core PPI, PPI (m-m)

(Apr) UK : GDP (q-q) (y-y) 1Q20,

Manufacturing Production (m-m) (Mar)

May 15 CN : Industrial Production

(y-y) (Apr) EU : GDP (q-q) (y-y) 1Q20 US : Retail Sales, Core

Retail Sales (m-m) (Apr)

www.poems.in.th 1

11 – 15 May 2020

02 635 1700 ต่อ 486

Weekly Technical View

Price drifted sideways after a test of resistance ataround Bt63.25 while MACD was still above thesignal line in positive territory. More gains could beon the cards.

“Still on the uptrend”

The SET fell below the 10 EMA but still held above key support

level at around 1240 points, while MACD remained above the signal line in bullish zone. On this basis,

the SET is likely to swing in a range between 1,240 and 1,300.

Since MACD issued a sell signal but was still inpositive zone, there is potential for the index toreverse back up from its position above support ataround Bt26.50 while MACD on a weekly chartproduced a buy signal.

SupportResistance

Support

Support

THE WEEKLY AGENDA 11 - 15 May 2020

Resistance

resistance

AOT 58.50 / 56.25 65.75 / 68.00

CPF

1240 / 1200

1300 / 1315

28.25 / 29.50

26.50 / 25.25

Strategy Team #487

www.poems.in.th 2

WEEKLY STATISTICS

Performance of major Asian currencies against US dollar

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

Viet

nam

Sing

apor

e

Hon

g ko

ng

Thai

land

Chi

na

Philip

ines

Mal

aysi

a

Kore

a

Taiw

an

Indo

nesi

a

Indi

a

WOW MTD YTDAp

prec

iatio

nD

epre

ciat

ion

-6.74%

-3.36%

-2.69%

-2.28%

-2.19%

-1.36%

-1.24%

-0.97%

-0.83%

0.40%

3.57%

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0%

India

Thailand

Hong kong

Indonesia

Malaysia

Taiwan

Singapore

Korea

Philipines

China

Vietnam

w-w Asian stock market performances

Source: Bloomberg

11 - 15 May 2020

www.poems.in.th 3

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2 Ma

r 20

9 Ma

r 20

16 M

ar 2

0

23 M

ar 2

0

30 M

ar 2

0

6 Ap

r 20

13 A

pr 2

0

20 A

pr 2

0

27 A

pr 2

0

4 Ma

y 20

Thailand Philippines S.Korea Taiwan Vietnam Indonesia India

Unit: Mil US$

WEEKLY STATISTICS

Foreign portfolio Flows into 7 ASIAN bourses

Forward P/E ratios of Asian stock markets

Source: Bloomberg

11 - 15 May 2020

www.poems.in.th 4

17.3616.70 16.42 16.19

13.42 13.01 12.80 12.50 12.40

11.09

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Tha

iland

India

Tai

wan

Mal

aysi

a

Phili

ppin

es

Sing

apor

e

Vie

tnam

Indon

esia

Chin

a

Hon

g Kon

g

Mean = 14.13

02 635 1700 ต่อ 486

Commodity Watch

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

www.poems.in.th 5

11 - 15 May 2020

CUSGHYDF OILA Index Olefin Spread NEX Index (Weekly)

Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, SCC Positive Negative BANPU

TOP

Dubai Aromatic Spread BDI Index

Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, TOP Positive Negative JUTHA, PSL,TTA

TOP, PTTEP

Rubber RSS3 Sugar#11 VIX Index

Positive Negative STA Positive Negative KBS, KSL, KTIS Negative Positive SET Index

Soybeans Cotton GOLD

Positive Negative TVO Positive Negative IVL Negative Positive SET Index

Negative Positive CPF, GFPT, TU

Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ounce

Unit: US cents/Kg Unit: Cents/Ib

Unit: US cents/bushel

Unit: US$/bbl Unit: US$/ton

Unit: US$/bbl

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ton

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Dec 19

Jan 20

Feb 20

Mar 20

Apr 20

May 20

GRM -0.49(-1.35)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Spread: HDPE-Naphtha (RHS)

HDPE (LHS)

Naphtha (LHS)

HDPE spread 545.2(-14.51)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Spread: Paraxylene-Naphtha (RHS)

Paraxylene (LHS)

Naphtha (LHS)

PX spread 284.57(18.36)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Baltic Dry Index 534(-101)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

VIX index 34.12(-0.03)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

100

120

140

160

180

200

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Rubber RSS3 136(1)

0

4

8

12

16

20

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Soybeans 830.5(-19.75)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Cotton 54.83(-3.23)

Dubai 32.23(5.27)

NEX 50.3(+1.25)

Sugar#11 10.27(-0.12)

GOLD 1698.9(-17.85)

Contact Information of Hong Kong Representatives

Research

Benny WANG

Dealing Director

(852) 2277 6720

bennywang@phillip.com.hk

ZHANG Jing

Research Analyst

Transportation and Automobiles

(86) 21 51699400-103

zhangjing@phillip.com.cn

Terry LI

Research Analyst

TMT, Education and Finance

(852) 2277 6527

terryli@phillip.com.hk

Sales

Eurus ZHOU

Research Analyst

Pharmaceutical and Consumer

(852) 2277 6515

euruszhou@phillip.com.hk

Tracy KU

Research Analyst

Retail and Property

(852) 2277 6516

tracyku@phillip.com.hk

Aric AU Yoshikazu SHIKITA

Manager, Corporate & Institutional Sales Manager, International Sales

(852) 2277 6783 (852) 2277 6624

corporatesales@phillip.com.hk yshikita@phillip.com.hk

PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks

> +20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price

+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20% upside from the current price

-5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within +/- 5% from the current price

-5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price

< -20% Sell 5 -20% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock’s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation

GENERAL DISCLAIMER

This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (“PSHK”), which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for regulated activities, including Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities). This publication was originally prepared by analysts from our overseas affiliates. The information contained herein is based on sources that PSHK and its affiliates believe to be accurate and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice and does not take into account the individual financial situation and objectives of any specific

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