tedx ryan allis - optimism for the next 40 years of human history

8/3/2019 TEDx Ryan Allis - Optimism for the Next 40 Years of Human History

1/103

Optimism for the Next 40Years of Human History

Presented By Ryan Allis,

CEO of iContact


2/103


3/103

Ive got one big question


4/103

As a Species

Are We Making

Progress?


5/103


6/103

1970


7/103

1971


8/103

1972


9/103

1973


10/103

1974


11/103

1975


12/103

1976


13/103

1977


14/103

1978


15/103

1979


16/103

1980


17/103

1981


18/103

1982


19/103

1983


20/103

1984


21/103

1985


22/103

1986


23/103

1987


24/103

1988


25/103

1989


26/103

1990


27/103

1991


28/103

1992


29/103

1993


30/103

1994


31/103

1995


32/103

1996


33/103

1997


34/103

1998


35/103

1999


36/103

2000


37/103

2001


38/103

2002


39/103

2003


40/103

2004


41/103

2005


42/103

2006


43/103

2007


44/103

2008


45/103

2009


46/103

2010


47/103

2011


48/103

So much has happenedsince 1970!


49/103

How can we even begin to

determine whether were making

progress as humans?


50/103

Well let

s zoom out


51/103

Lets look at 5 Human

Key Performance Indicators

(KPIs)


52/103

Life Expectancy

1


53/103

Infant Mortality

2


54/103

Per Capita Income

3


55/103

% in Extreme Poverty

4


56/103

CO2 Emissions

5


57/103

Life Expectancy

17% Improvement Since 1970

Source: World Bank Development Indicators


58/103



Infant MortalityDeaths Per 1000 Live Births Within 12 Mos.


59/103

Per Capita

Income


Source: World Bank Development Indicators, Inflation Adjusted


60/103

% Living in ExtremeP

overty


Source: World Bank Development Indicators 2011

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

1981 1983 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010

Series 1Under $1.25 Per Day, PPP Adjusted, Inflation Adjusted 2005 Dollars


61/103

1970-2010 Were The Greatest

Four Decades in the History of

Humankind


62/103

Except for


63/103

CO2 Emissions

105% Increase Since 1970


Oh Crap!


64/103

Temperature Anomalies on Land

Source: NASA


65/103

Our Parents

Report Card?

Human KPI Delta Letter Grade

CO2 Emissions 105% Increase F

% in Extreme Poverty 62% Better B

Per Capita Income 1080% Better A+

Infant Mortality 57% Better A

Life Expectancy 17% Better A

1970-2010


66/103

So What Will The Next 40 Years ofHuman History Bring?


67/103

Source: Pardee Center for International Futures

Global Population Will Rise

9 Billion by 2050


68/103

Global Energy Demand Will Double



69/103

As We Turn to More Sustainable Sources


Fossil Fuel Usage Will Peak, Then Decline


70/103

WhyIm Optimistic

And Solar & Wind Power Will Reach Price Parity


71/103

Internet Access Will Become Ubiquitous



72/103

As Broadband Access Goes from 10% to 85%



73/103

Smart Phone Access Will Become Ubiquitous


Mobile phone subscriptions per 100 people


74/103


We Live Longer

The average human being gets 10% more life!


75/103

We See An End to Extreme Poverty

Source: World Bank Development Indicators, 2011-2029 projected

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

1981 1983 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

Under $1.25 Per Day, PPP Adjusted, Inflation Adjusted 2005 Dollars


76/103

We Become More Educated


% of Population With Secondary Schooling Up 87%


77/103


Women Globally Go To College in Droves

% of Women With a College Education Up 245%

% of Men With a College Education Up 145%


78/103


We Become More Urban

% Living in Cities


79/103


We Get Wealthier

Inflation-Adjusted Per Capita Income More than Doubles


80/103

We Will See MajorInnovations

Nanotechnology

3D Printing

Individualized Genome Sequencing

Artificial Intelligence

Private Space Travel


81/103

Governments Will Have to Adapt

An increase in government transparency

An increase in visibly-tracked government metrics

Stronger property rights

Easier to start a business

The remaining authoritarian regimes will be overthrown


82/103

We Will See MajorGeopolitical Changes

China will have the worlds largest GDP

India will become the worlds most populous nation

Africas population passes China/India around 2025

With a population of 2 billion by 2050, Africa becomes an

economic powerhouse


83/103

Africa Becomes A Land of Opportunity

Dec 3, 2011

May 10, 2000


84/103

Generation Y Will Be Leading theNext 40 Years

2011-2050


85/103

Thats Right,

Were in Charge Now


86/103

So Whats Different AboutG

en Y?

We are deeply aware of social issues.1


87/103


en Y?

We are deeply aware of the need for a sustainable

environment.2


88/103


en Y?

We see business and entrepreneurship as tools to make a

scalable positive change in the world.3


89/103


en Y?

We are used to a faster pace of change and are impatientwith the status quo. We are innovators.4


90/103


en Y?

We are connected through technology like never before.5


91/103


en Y?

We now have the tools to hold corrupt leaders accountable

via internet-enabled mobile phones and create enough

momentum to topple these bad leaders.

6


92/103

How will you make a

difference in the world?


93/103

It Will BeAnAmazing

Next 40 Years of

Human History!

2011-2050


94/103


95/103


96/103

Final Words


97/103

As we see all the myopic

scare-mongering headlines,

keep things in long-term

perspective.


98/103

And work hard as a

committed and caring leader

toward creating a sustainable

world.


99/103

A world in which every

human being has access

to basic human needs.


100/103

A world in which we can

actually end extreme poverty

in our lifetime.


101/103

A world in which we can

create economic growthsustainably.


102/103

Its time to show our parents

what we can do.


103/103

Thank you!

@ryanallis

[email protected]

tedx ryan allis - optimism for the next 40 years of human history

Documents