Tech Turmoil To Come

Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk

Each arrival is bigger than the last

Arrival intervals shorten with time

exponential waves of technology

The ratchet

Evolution and Technology

have no reverse gear !

We survive at the behest of technology

More technology more people live

More progress per successive lifetime

EXPONENTIALs Confound us

More data/information generated this year than in

the previous 5000…

….and next year and the year after, and…

Solutions

Lots of simple solutions

to complex problems

they are

all

wrong!

failing sustainability strategies

Improving the efficiency of old industries, technologies, and methods

Recycling, reuse, repurposing

Today’s green energy solutions

A l l f a i l

in the

long term

Requirements easy to define

Easy to design

Easy to build

Predictable performance

SIMPLE SYSTEMS

Within human grasp and abilities

Laws of physics apply

Mathematics work

Complicated SYSTEMS

Requirements difficult to define

Difficult to design

Difficult to build

Difficult to understand

Predictable performance

Within human grasp and abilities

Laws of physics apply

Mathematics ‘mostly’ work

Complex SYSTEMS

Requirements often uncertain

Difficult/easy to specify

Difficult/easy to build

Unpredictable performance

Evolution and emergent behaviour

Beyond human grasp and abilities

Established wisdoms do not apply

Mathematics no longer works

No general lawsonly a meme !

BIO-TECH nano-TECH

AI

our future trajectoryNew industries, technologies, and methods

Multi-Disciplinary hot spot

OPEn  hardware  -  printed  functionalityNo assembly required - posting designs intend of shipping atoms

Trachea

Vertebral DiscInjection Molded

Breathing Lung

Pr inted  &  programmed  replacements

IMMEDIATE IMPLICATIONS

Sensors more capable than anything we had before

Food production monitoring

Contamination detection

General ailment diagnosis

Early cancer detection

Explosives detection

+++

The migration of abilityHealth systems are not underfunded or broken,

they are the wrong model for the 21st Century

We will become the custodians of our own records and guardians of our own health… free at source when needed will become: ‘in your own hands’

The migration of abilityHealth systems are not underfunded or broken

They are the wrong model!

The migration of ability

From Laboratory to Hospital

From Hospital to Doctors Office

From Doctors Office to The Home

We are the typists, xerox, telephone

and computer operators, and soon

technology will see DIY medicine

overtake todays Victorian systems

Star trek BODY scanner is IN the lab phase today

artificial intelligence

Human intellect amplifier

Anticipatory search/analysis

Modelling/decision support

Complex problem solving

Natural language I/On o t t h e e n d

just a new

beginning

15

10

5

0

Estimated information half-life for different fields of study

Economics

Physics

Medicine

Software Marine Biology

Astro- Physics

Num

ber

of y

ears

aft

er p

ublic

atio

n

Past, Present & Future

Machines decoded the genome

Now working on proteins

They design our electronics

Manufacture our products

Enable new technologies

Power our research

And empower us !

Past, Present & Futurewhy do we employ people

The are

cheaper

than robots

They can do things

robots cannot

YOUWill experience far more tech change than I

Jobs

lost!

Typists Dockers Milkman

Blacksmith Secretaries

Drawing office Xerox operator

Elevator operator Computer operator

Telephone operator Comptometer operator

Financial report writers ++++

!

i n My l i fet ime

Jobs

to go!

Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services

Investment bankers Warehouse People Personal Assistant Tech suppor t

Stock Trader Receptionist Forecasters Train driver Researcher

Journalist Drivers Agents

Pilots

i n your l i fet ime

Jobs

to be

enhanc

ed

Fabricator Geneticist Generalist Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programmer

Complexity analysts Security Experts Entrepreneurs

Technologists Consultants Arch i t e c t s Detectives Designers Engineers Modellers Scientists

Medics

i n your l i fet ime

i n your l i fet ime

Jobs

to com

e!

3/4D Designer Risk Profilers

Cyborg Engineer Protein Designer Crime Predictor

Digital Historian Information Caretaker Truth Engine Mediator

Component Repurposer Genome-Protein Activators

Material Programmer Recycling Designers Interface Designers Machine Mediators Wisdom Archivists Genome Designer Material Designer Wisdom Monitors Trouble Shooters Nano-Engineers Bio-Engineers

TECHnology PRED ICT ION

I S EASY

What people and society

will do with it however

appears impossible

to forecast

And Now !!

Thank You

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk