technology trends in the...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2013 IBM Corporation Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends in the Future
Dougal Watt, Chief Technologist, IBM NZ
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
2
The evolution of technology trends
● Why technology trends matter
● How IBM assesses technology trends - the IBM Global Technology Outlook
● Overview of the trends since 2008
● Implications for society, economy and environment
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
3
The importance of technology trends 'Triple bottom line' view
Social view Is the trend net positive or negative? What changes will it require in education provision?; what employment opportunities does it open up?; how does it change the democratic structure of society (e.g. privacy implications)?
Economic view How will it change our economies?; where will value shift? What skills will be required?
Environmental view Will it cause more environmental problems?; does it enable better environmental management?; does it lower resource usage?
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
4
The importance of technology trends 'Triple bottom line' view
The mobility revolution
- release of iPhone in 2007
- disruptive innovation at work
Nokia - worlds most successful Mobile Phone company with 40% market share by sales
selection of >220 models available 2007
Apple – worlds most successful Mac and iPod company iPhone portfolio – 1 model
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
5
The importance of technology trends 'Triple bottom line' view
The result - radical change in market values
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
6
The importance of technology trends 'Triple bottom line' view
Social view Education provision through mobility; creation of new job categories; democratisation of computing (iPad); evolving trend towards wearable computing threatens privacy (Glass etc)
Economic view Radical shift in: market share; corporate valuation; evolution of online app provision (app store); creation of new markets ($8 billion in developer AppStore income); total disruption of consumer and business IT marketplace; undermining IT department control
Environmental view E-waste considerable problem; mining of rare earth elements very destructive (e.g. tin mines); enable whole new classes of solutions e.g. smartphone river condition monitoring
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
7
How IBM assesses technology trends The IBM Global Technology Outlook (GTO)
The GTO identifies significant technology trends and identifies high-impact disruptive technologies leading to game-changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon.
Technology thresholds identified in a GTO influence clients, enterprises, and industries, and have high potential to create new businesses – they are business driven.
Produced by IBM Research division.
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
8
IBM Research Globalization
IBM Research Labs
China
Watson Almaden
Austin
Tokyo Zurich
India
Dublin
Australia
Brazil Next Generation Public Sector Water & Transportation Human Capacity Development
Natural Resources Disaster Management Healthcare & Life Sciences
Natural Resources Smarter Devices Human Systems/Events
Industry Solutions
Accessibility
Internet of Things Smarter Cities
Big Data & Analytics
HW & SW Quality
Cloud, Mobile
Haifa
Smarter Cities
Services Mobile
Communications
Semiconductors Systems Software &
Services Big Data &
Analytics
Semiconductors Processors
Big Data & Analytics
Storage Nanotech
Healthcare
Science Nanotech
Materials
Africa
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
9
Overview of the trends 2008 research findings
Real-World Aware
MAKING SENSE OF A COMPLEX WORLD ... IN REAL TIME
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
10
Overview of the trends 2008 research findings
Enterprise Mobile - convergence of mobile broadband and smart phones
Community- and Information-Centric Web Platforms - ecosystem development around web platforms (e.g. salesforce.com), highly focused on data/information centricity and sharing
Internet-Scale Datacenter - highly integrated, purpose built, efficient
Technology, Systems and Software - evolving technologies to bridge gap between current semiconductor computing and future approaches (e.g. nanotech, quantum computing)
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
11
Overview of the trends 2009 research findings
Digital Economy Dynamic Value Creation Valuation, Transparency, Risk
Direct Trade of Resources (Carbon)
Data to Smart Decisions Decision Support From data deluge to
insights to decisions Monitor, Analyze &
Development
Cloud Emerging Services & Infrastructure Efficiency
Continuous Monitoring & Real Time Analysis
Zero-Emissions Data Center
Services Quality
Security
Transformation Systems Hybrid Systems Streaming applications Complex Systems
Modeling & Analysis
Fine-grained, Risk-adjusted security
Dynamic Infrastructure Intelligence/Analytics Green & Beyond
Measurable quality for emerging, dynamic services
G T O T o p i c s
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
12
Overview of the trends 2010 research findings
Analytics & Optimization
Industry Transformation
Software & Services
System & Infrastructure
Globalization and Economic Downturn Healthcare Debate and Stimulus Money
Explosive Growth of Wireless Traffic Cost/Power/Performance/Time-to-Value
System of Systems Explosion in Digitizing the World Need for Accurate and Trusted Models
Rigidity of Packaged Applications Integration Remains the Key Strategic Priority Early Adoption of Cloud Computing Delivery Models
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
13
Overview of the trends 2010 research findings
1.Enabling Technologies for Healthcare Transformation
Evidence-centric medicine, payment-for-outcomes
1.Workload Optimized Systems HW, SW co-design, integration, optimization
1.Orchestrating the Smarter Planet Models and model orchestration enable
integrated operation and optimization
1.Software Technology Trends New development models, tools and methods transforming
the SW industry
1.Future of Legacy Tools & services to “Identify, Improve and Operate” legacy
1.Convergence of IT and Wireless Infrastructure IT enabled wireless infrastructure optimizations
Analytics & Optimization
Industry Transformation
Software & Services
System & Infrastructure
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
14
Overview of the trends 2011 research findings
Internet of Things Natural Resources Transformation and Management
Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions
Petascale Analytics, Appliances & Ecosystem
Frontiers of IT
Services Implications
2011 Major
Initiatives
Analytics
Smarter Planet
Workload- Optimized Systems
Services
New GTO Topics
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
15
Overview of the trends 2011 research findings
Internet of Things - common customer pain points
Lack of capability to design, implement, deploy, operate and manage complex IoT systems Lack of situation awareness leading to unacceptable responsiveness and resilience Requirement of end-to-end security
Food Safety Water Management Grid
Transportation Home Healthcare Logistics
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
16
Overview of the trends 2011 research findings
An industry >$7 trillion and growing rapidly
Increasing Costs and Restrictions
Public Focus on HSE Regulatory and Reporting Workforce Issues
Difficulty Finding and Extracting New Sources
Dig/drill deeper Developing harsh/remote areas Complexity of exploration Non-traditional sources
Increasing Global Demand
Global economic growth Exploding middle class in
China and India
Activity, reserves, & investment focused in the GMU
Natural resources
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
17
Overview of the trends 2011 research findings
Training and Learning Engines To Build Models and Define Insight
Hypothesis Engines To Understand and Plan Actions
Policy Engine Business, Legal
and Ethical Rules
Verification Engines (e.g. Simulations)
Active Learning
(Natural Interfaces)
Outcome Engine Actuation and Validation
Society Nature Institutions Archives
Frontiers of IT: Programming and Data transform to Learning and Intelligence
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
18
Overview of the trends 2011 research findings
Up to 10,000 Times larger
Up to 10,000 times faster
Traditional Data Warehouse and Business Intelligence
Dat
a Sc
ale
Dat
a Sc
ale
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs
Exa
Peta
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
Decision Frequency Occasional Frequent Real-time
Data in Motion
Dat
a at
Res
t
Telco Promotions 100,000 records/sec, 6B/day 10 ms/decision 270TB for Deep Analytics
DeepQA 100s GB for Deep Analytics 3 sec/decision
Smart Traffic 250K GPS probes/sec 630K segments/sec 2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles
Homeland Security 600,000 records/sec, 50B/day 1-2 ms/decision 320TB for Deep Analytics
New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
19
Overview of the trends 2012 research findings
Managing Uncertain Data at Scale
Future of
Analytics
The Future Watson
Systems of People
Outcome Based Business
Resilient Business and Services
Uncertain data and analytics are major themes
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
20
Overview of the trends 2012 research findings
Trend: Most of the world’s analyzed data will be uncertain
By 2015, 80% of the world’s data will be uncertain
Uncertain data management requires new techniques
These techniques are necessary for real-world Big Data Analytics
Opportunity: Business leadership using Big Data Analytics
Robust, business-aware uncertain data management
Use analytics over uncertain web, sensor, and human-generated data
Enable good business decisions by understanding analysis confidence
Challenge: Taking Big Data Analytics into an uncertain world
Analysis of text is highly nuanced; sensor-based data is imprecise
Timely business decisions require efficient large-scale analytics
It is more difficult to obtain insight about an individual than a group, especially if the source data is uncertain
Uncertain data
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
21
Overview of the trends 2012 research findings
Glo
bal D
ata
Volu
me
in E
xaby
tes
Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 Agg
rega
te U
ncer
tain
ty %
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2005 2010 2015
By 2015, 80% of all available data will be uncertain
Data quality solutions exist for enterprise data like customer, product, and address data, but this is only a fraction of the total enterprise data.
By 2015 the number of networked devices will be double the entire global population. All sensor data has uncertainty.
The total number of social media accounts exceeds the entire global population. This data is highly uncertain in both its expression and content.
Uncertain data
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
22
Overview of the trends 2012 research findings
Industry trends
Value proposition is shifting towards delivering business outcomes
Serious threat of commoditization to traditional models of IT-focused outsourcing and pure IT cost plays
Approach Understand the causal relationships between business outcomes and IT capabilities
Opportunity Lead by focusing on enterprise value tied to business
outcomes
Outcome based business
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
23
Overview of the trends 2012 research findings Outcome based business
Reduce IT cost
IT outcomes
Manage IT cost
Increase business revenue Reduce business cost
Business outcomes
Align with enterprise’s business outcomes
Valu
e
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
“From Cost Center to Profit Center”
The transformation of IT from a cost center to a profit center does not happen overnight. It requires a well thought out strategy and implementation. Source: dynamicCIO.com, C R Narayanan, Dec 20, 2011
“IT Value Is Dead. Long Live Business Value.”
Business outcomes from technology investments are all that really matter. The CIO’s challenge is finding new ways to prove IT’s worth. Source: CIO.com, Stephanie Overby, May 12 , 2011
Top 10 Business Priorities 2014
Increasing enterprise growth
Improving Operations
Attracting and retaining new customers
1 2 3
Source: Gartner, 2011 CIO Survey
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
24
Implications for society, economy and environment Key trend themes
2008
Real-World Aware – how do we make sense of the world in real time? i.e. data, sensors, decision making
2009
Value creation; data to smart decisions – expands on 2008, adds concept of value
2010
Transformations of industry – especially healthcare, but very hard; digitisation of everything
Analytics and optimisation - integrated operation and optimisation for the smarter planet
Software and services - new development models, tools, methods transforming software industry e.g. semantics - huge trend now - adding context/meaning back into 'data' centric views of technology - will drive large scale value creation
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
25
Implications for society, economy and environment Key trend themes
2011
Internet of things & natural resource transformation and management
Starting to see direct intersection of technology addressing Key issues facing our societies - health, environmental management, transportation, water, other resources (mines, petroleum)
Analytics at peta scale, and applied to social and enterprise solutions
First learning systems e.g. Watson
2012
Uncertain data - the 'data scientist'; core disciplines in technology being re-constructed into more holistic information-centric perspectives
Outcome based business - business and IT blending; move from technology centric to business centric enabled by technology; enterprise Architecture will increase in importance
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
26
Implications for society, economy and environment 'Triple bottom line' view
Society
- Not directly addressed through these themes, but strong linkage to Environment and Business views
- Lower level technology-centric jobs becoming automated (e.g. server build) – need to move training up the value chain
- Starting to see data and social intersecting, more in workforce performance context
- Huge risk to democracy from proliferation of data, wearable computing, corporate data collection, and government security over-reach. Privacy needs increasing, technology currently lags
- Strong need to shift thinking from tech-centric to holistic view of technology enabling change. Perhaps “technology ethics and context” be taught in parallel with technical curriculum in schools?
- Data/information centric and mathematical skills are becoming very scarce and sought after
- Most successful businesses harness creativity, not rote learning – current 'National Standards' style education systems are totally inadequate for needs of modern society
Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends
27
Implications for society, economy and environment 'Triple bottom line' view
Economy
- Digitisation of business has progressed considerably; technology becoming 'almost commodity' necessary to enable next stage of business transformation...
- Shift to business outcome viewpoint; needs to be embedded in all levels of training – helped by AppStore & cloud economics
- Emergence of 'information economics' – only sustainable source of business value creation / differentiation is now information
- Economic systems have become very complex with limited controls – technology starting to provide means to understand this through big data/analytics
Environment
- Business beginning to see value in environmental management through necessity and early successes
- Vested interests starting to fail in blocking change – driven by shifting economics of renewable energy (gird parity for solar in less than 5 years), fresh water limits
- Technology will play a central role through data and internet of things, but must focus on outcomes
28 Technology Trends in the Future © 2013 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends