technology trends

April 22, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture

Technology Trends

Pradondet NilaguptaFall 2005

(original notes from Randy Katz, & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)

April 22, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 2

Original

Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes


1988 Computer Food Chain

PCWork-stationMini-

computer

Mainframe

Mini-supercomputer

Supercomputer

Massively Parallel Processors


1998 Computer Food Chain

Mini-supercomputerMassively Parallel

Processors

Mini-computer

PCWork-station

Mainframe

Supercomputer Now who is eating whom?Server


1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies

PCWork-stationMini-

computer

Mainframe

Mini-supercomputer

Supercomputer

ECL TTL MOS


Why Such Change in 10 years? (1/2)

Function– Rise of networking/local interconnection techn

ology

Performance– Technology Advances

• CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance

– Computer architecture advances improves low-end

• RISC, Superscalar, RAID, …


Why Such Change in 10 years? (2/2)

Price: Lower costs due to …– Simpler development

• CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components

– Higher volumes• CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,0

00,000 units – Lower margins by class of computer, due to

fewer services


Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity

Year

Tran

sist

ors

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

i80386

i4004i8080

Pentium

i80486

i80286

i8086

Moore’s Law

CMOS improvements:• Die size: 2X every 3 yrs• Line width: halve / 7 yrs

“Graduation Window”Alpha 21264: 15 millionPentium Pro: 5.5 millionPowerPC 620: 6.9 millionAlpha 21164: 9.3 millionSparc Ultra: 5.2 million


Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM)

size

Year

Bits

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1000000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

year size(Mb) cyc time1980 0.0625 250 ns1983 0.25 220 ns1986 1 190 ns1989 4 165 ns1992 16 145 ns1996 64 120 ns2000 256 100 ns


CMOS ImprovementsDie size 2X every 3 yrsLine widths halve every 7 yrs

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992

Die SizeLine Width Improvement

Die size increase plus transistor count increase

Transistor Count


Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time

128K

128M

20008K

1M

8M

1G

8G

1970 1980 1990

1 chip

1Kbit

640K

4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M

DOS limit

1/8 chip

8 chips-PC

64 chips workstation

512 chips

4K chipsBytes

Time


Technology Trends (Summary)Capacity Speed (latency)

Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 yearsDRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 yearsDisk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years


Processor Frequency Trend

Frequency doubles each generation Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%

386486

Pentium(R)

Pentium Pro(R)

Pentium(R) IIMPC750

604+604

601, 603

21264S

2126421164A

2116421064A

21066

10

100

1,000

10,000

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Mhz

1

10

100

Gat

e D

elay

s/ C

lock

Intel

IBM Power PC

DEC

Gate delays/clock

Processor freq scales by 2X per

generation


Processor Performance Trends

Microprocessors

Minicomputers

Mainframes

Supercomputers

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


Performance vs. Time

Mips25 MHz

0.1

1.0

10

100Pe

rfor

man

ce (V

AX

780s

)

1980 1985 1990

MV10K

68K

7805 MHz

RISC 60% / yr.

uVAX 6K(CMOS)

8600

TTL

ECL 15%/yr.

CMOS CISC

38%/yr.

o ||MIPS (8 MHz)

o9000

Mips(65 MHz)

uVAXCMOS Will RISC continue on a

60%, (x4 / 3 years)?

4K


Processor Performance(1.35X before, 1.55X now)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

DEC

Alph

a 211

64/6

00

DEC

Alph

a 5/

500

DEC

Alph

a 5/

300

DEC

Alph

a 4/

266

IBM

POW

ER 10

0

DEC

AXP/

500

HP 90

00/7

50

Sun-

4/260

IBM

RS/

6000

MIP

S M

/120

MIP

S M

/2000

1.54X/yr


Summary: Performance Trends

Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months)

Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year


Processor Perspective

Putting performance growth in perspective: IBM POWER2 Cray YMP Workstation SupercomputerYear 1993 1988MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPSLinpack 140 MFLOPS 160 MFLOPSCost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$)Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHzCache 256 KB 0.25 KBMemory 512 MB256 MB

1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!


Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From?

Technology?Organization?Instruction Set Architecture?Software?Some combination of all of the above?


Performance Trends Revisited(Architectural Innovation)

Microprocessors

Minicomputers

Mainframes

Supercomputers

Year

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

CISC/RISC


Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization)

Year

Transistors

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

r4400

r4000

r3010

i80386

i4004

i8080

i80286

i8086

• Bit Level Parallelism

• Pipelining

• Caches

• Instruction Level Parallelism

• Out-of-order Xeq

• Speculation

• . . .


What is Ahead?Greater instruction level parallelism?Bigger caches?Multiple processors per chip?Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems)High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect


Hardware Technology1980 1990 2000

Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 GSpeed 1-2 20-40 400-10005-1/4 in. disks 40 M 1 G 20 GFloppies .256 M 1.5 M 500-2,000 MLAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits 10 (100) 155-655

(ATM)Busses 2-20 Mbytes 40-400


Software Technology 1980 1990 2000

Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff??Op. System proprietary +DUM* +DUM+NTUser I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice,

audio,video, ??Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobileNew things PC & WS parallel proc. appliancesCapabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ??

DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MACWIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menusAgents = robots that work on information


Computer Technology Trends: Evolutionary but Rapid Change

Processor:– 1.5-1.6 performance improvement every year; Over 100X

performance in last decade.Memory:– DRAM capacity: > 2x every 1.5 years; 1000X size in last decade.– Cost per bit: Improves about 25% per year.

Disk:– Capacity: > 2X in size every 1.5 years.– Cost per bit: Improves about 60% per year.– 200X size in last decade.– Only 10% performance improvement per year, due to mechanical

limitations.Expected State-of-the-art PC by end of year 2005 :– Processor clock speed: > 4000 MegaHertz (4 Giga Hertz)– Memory capacity: > 4000 MegaByte (4 Giga

Bytes)– Disk capacity: > 500 GigaBytes (0.5 Tera Bytes)


Recent Architectural ImprovementsRecent Architectural Improvements

Increased optimization and utilization of cache systems.Memory-latency hiding techniques.Optimization of pipelined instruction execution.Dynamic hardware-based pipeline scheduling.Improved handling of pipeline hazards.Improved hardware branch prediction techniques.Exploiting Instruction-Level Parallelism (ILP) in terms of multiple-instruction issue and multiple hardware functional units.Inclusion of special instructions to handle multimedia applications (limited vector processing).High-speed bus designs to improve data transfer rates.


Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (1/2)

Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handlingUntethered computing: fully distributed offices ??Integration of video, communication, and computing: desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail Large, commercial transaction processing systemsEncapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific & engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )


Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (2/2)

Visualization & virtual realityComputational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and materials Mechanical engineering without prototypesImage/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance.Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputersIntegration of the PC & TV => TC


Challenges for 1990s Platforms (1/2)

64-bit computers video, voice, communication, any really new apps? Increasingly large, complex systems and environments Usability?Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible, non-interoperable computers: Usability?Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity supercomputing”: Markets and trained users?


Challenges for 1990s Platforms (2/2)

Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital videoThe true portable, wireless communication computer Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computerNetworks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?

technology trends

Documents

performance improvement

class of computer

microprocessor organization

smaller systems

complete systems

simpler developmentcmos

bigger caches

lower costs