1. 1. Technology Options & Cost of Increasing Access to Electricity in Taraba State, Nigeria Uduak Akpan+, Salisu Isihak, and Sanusi Ohiare u.akpan@spidersolutionsnigeria.com 8th NAEE/IAEE International conference, 27th 28th April, 2015, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENT Background Network Planner Tool Data requirement Modeling procedure Results Sensitivity Analysis Discussions Conclusion & recommendations
3. 3. BACKGROUND Access to electricity promotes rural development education, health, microenterprise development, etc 1.3 billion persons lacked access to electricity in 2012 over 600 million in sub-Saharan Africa 76 million lacks electricity access in Nigeria with electricity access rate being 56%; 84% in urban areas and 34% in rural areas The electricity access rates in the various states vary significantly, from 10.9% in Taraba State to 99.3% in Lagos State
4. 4. Why electricity access rate vary Population density Location of generating facilities Coverage of the transmission lines Electricity access rate by state
5. 5. Population density by state
6. 6. Coverage of the electricity grid in Nigeria
7. 7. Rural electrification planning Grid-extension is often used for rural electrification However, grid-extension may not be cost-effective in certain situations e.g. in rural areas far from the grid, with low electricity demand and sparse population Grid-extension with lead to low capacity utilization Off-grid (decentralized mini-grid, stand-alone) may be cost- effective Planners need to evaluate the technology options to identify the least-cost option To identify the least cost options, Network Planner Tool could be employed.
8. 8. NETWORK PLANNER TOOL Free, web-based application Developed by Modi Research Group, Earth Institute, Columbia University, USA. integrates geospatial with demographic and energy demand information to identify the least-cost technology option among three possible electrification options: grid-extension, mini-grid, and stand-alone Can be applied at a very disaggregated level depending on data availability for demand centres Has been used in Ghana and Myanmar
9. 9. DATA REQUIREMENT Geospatial Spatial location (longitude and Latitude of demand nodes GIS shapefile showing the coverage of the MV lines Demographic Population of demand nodes Population growth rate Population threshold Household size Average inter- household distance Economic Economic growth rate (national) Investment horizon Lending rate Income elasticity of electricity demand
10. 10. DATA REQUIREMENT contd. Electricity demand Household Domestic Number of appliances, wattage, duration of use (hours/day, days/week) Household productive Social Institutions (health, education, etc) Commercial Public lighting Cost Grid Extension Internal Cost (LV lines) External Cost (Transformer, MV lines) Additional generating capacity Mini-grid Internal Cost + generating facility Standalone Solar PV system Mini diesel generator
11. 11. Modeling procedure Upload geospatial information (spatial location of demand nodes and GIS Shapefile) NPT maps shapefile of MV lines with spatial information of demand nodes on Google Earth NPT maps spatial information of demand nodes on Google Earth
12. 12. Modeling procedure contd. Input demographic and socio-economic data (population threshold, household size, population growth rate) NPT projects population of demand nodes to the end of investment period Input electricity demand information and specify the demand scaling factors for each category of electricity demand NPT uses demographic and electricity demand information to project the electricity demand of each demand node till the end of the investment period Input cost information NPT estimates the cost of meeting the demand using the three options and identifies the least-cost option NPT also obtains an important decision metric MVmax
13. 13. START Is the cost of the lower-cost decentralized option < internal cost of grid- extension Compare the costs of the decentralized options Select the decentralized option with the lower discounted cost Compare the cost of the lower-cost decentralized option with the total (internal + external) cost of grid- extension Choose the lower-cost decentralized option as the least cost electrification option YesNo STOP Compare the cost of the lower-cost decentralized option with internal cost of grid-extension. Is the cost of the lower-cost decentralized option < total cost of grid- extension Choose the lower-cost decentralized option as the least cost electrification option Yes No Select grid-extension as the least-cost technology option Compute MV max, and the length of grid (MV) to be extended Selecting the least-cost option
14. 14. RESULTS Base-case result showing the least-cost technology option for each demand node
15. 15. RESULTS contd Cost of attaining 50% electricity access rate (i.e 266,571 household)s in Taraba State (assuming no initial access level) Number of demand nodes 157 Number of target households (50% of Total number of households) 266571 Stand-alone 0 [0%] Mini-grid 3 [1.9%] Grid-extension 154 [98.1%] Total cost (million US$) Stand-alone 7,424.36 Mini-grid 1,756.25 Grid-extension 1,648.73 Cost per household (US$) Stand-alone 27,851.34 Mini-grid 6,588.32 Grid-extension 6,184.96 Technology option for demand nodes (number of demand nodes [%]) Investment cost (initial + recurrent over investment period)
16. 16. RESULTS contd Cost of schedule for electrifying the demand nodes in the state using the least cost technological option for each demand node Number of demand nodes 157 Mini-grid nodes 3 Mini-grid initial cost $3,379,096 Mini-grid recurring cost $25,480,684 Mini-grid cost $28,859,780 Mini-grid cost levelized $0.17 / kWh Mini-grid energy storage cost $23,988,419 Grid nodes 154 Grid initial cost $502,661,598 Grid recurring cost $1,140,723,225 Grid cost $1,643,384,822 Grid cost levelized $0.16 / kWh Grid length existing 11,128,147 m Grid length proposed 1,409,839 m
17. 17. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 20% increase in household electricity demand level 20% decrease in household electricity demand level Change in household electricity demand level (Base case = 2424.24kWh/year)
18. 18. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS contd Change in household electricity demand level - 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 S-A M-G G-E Change in household electricity demand level (total investment cost, million US$) 20% decrease Base case 20% increase - 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 25,000.00 30,000.00 35,000.00 S-A M-G G-E Change in household electricity demand level (cost per household, US$) 20% decrease Base case 20% increase S-A: Stand-alone; M-G: mini-grid; G-E: grid-extension
19. 19. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS contd Mini-grid energy storage cost = US$0.10/kWh Mini-grid energy storage cost = US$0.15/kWh Change in mini cost of energy storage
20. 20. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS contd Change in mini cost of energy storage 1,463.20 1,756.25 2,049.31 - 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 US$0.1/kWh Base case US$0.15/kWh Change in mini-grid energy storage level (total investment cost, million US$) 5,488.96 6,588.32 7,687.67 - 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 US$0.1/kWh Base case US$0.15/kWh Change in mini-grid energy storage level (cost per household, US$)
21. 21. DISCUSSIONS Even though grid-extension is the least-cost option for most demand nodes, the cost per household is still high With the present electricity sector structure, discos may be unwilling to take the risk Rural electrification agency needs to be strengthened to deliver its mandate Grid-extension will add additional stress to the low national generation capacity Mini-grid uses diesel which has high fuel cost Taraba has high small hydro power potential which may be used for mini-grids since mini-grid may be cost-effective in some demand nodes
22. 22. CONCLUSION There is need to re-conduct the study using data at a more disaggregated level (e.g. village level) REA needs to compile a comprehensive list of unelectrified villages in Nigeria, including spatial information of such villages REA should develop policies that encourage community- level small hydro power schemes in Taraba The scope of the work may be extended to cover all unelectrified villages in Nigeria
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