technology impacts on the future of transportation mark hallenbeck, director of the washington state...
TRANSCRIPT
Technology Impacts on the Future of Transportation
Mark Hallenbeck, Director of the Washington State Transportation Center, University of Washington
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Remember…
We are planning for humans…
They act in mostly rational ways based on their perception of reality, and its costs and benefits
Private businesses happily invent and sell services to people when the prices people are willing to pay exceed the cost of providing those services
New technology just allows more of those services
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Technology and the Future
New technology changes the parameters about travel decisions
It can change the perception of CostTravel time, and travel time reliabilitySafetyConvenienceComfortFlexibility
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Perception of time can change with technology
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Perception of time can change with technology
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Transportation Mode for 20 to 24 Years, Central Puget Sound Region, 2005-2013
Take my keys, not my phone!
Losing which piece of technology would have the greatest impact:
55+ = 10% phone vs. 44% car
45-54 = 14% phone vs. 49% car
35-44 = 28% phone vs. 33% car
18-34 = 39% phone vs. 26% car
Younger generations value the car less
Size and Density of Area Effects Available Services
The business case for many transportation services changes with development density
Large, dense urban areas will have quality services that smaller, less dense areas do not
For example, how good (and heavily used) is taxi service in
the exurbs, vsdowntown
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Size and Density of Area Effects Available Services
So what happens in San Francisco and Seattle is likely to be different than what happens in Nashville or Orlando (or Peoria and Ames)
And the future for each city starts from its existing built environment
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Size and Density of Area Effects Available Services
If parking costs money Additional transportation services become attractive
There is a financial incentive to not drive
Additional transportation services are competitive
If parking is free and available, and distances are long, people will drive themselves
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Technology Will Effect Travel In Four Basic Ways
Better Traveler Information
New Transportation Services
New Payment Mechanisms
Advanced and Autonomous Vehicles
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Traveler Information
Prediction:
More accurate up-to-the minute information will be delivered to travelers through a wide variety of media
Frequently provides the information needed, When it is needed
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Transit Arrival Trip Planning
13Real Time Transit Routing, Schedule Alerts???
From smartphones
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To Virtual Kiosks
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To Electronic Signs Beside Roadways
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To In Car Navigation and Communication Systems (Telematics)
Information will be more modally agnostic
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Navigation (Real time and planning)
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Better Information
Allows travelers to understand what options exist
Encourages use of “unusual modes”(Travelers can learn about their availability)
Grows alternative mode use when those modes make competitive sense
Information improves freight travel as well
Load Tracking Load Consolidation Routing
For public sector planners
Plan to get information out about what services are availableThe public sector controls many of these dataWhen done right, their data is better than crowd sourced data
Encourage the private sector to deliver that informationThey will do it better and at little or no costBut keep core functionality alive publicly
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New Information TechnologyConnects Buyers to Sellers
This allows new services to exist
And flourish, where a business case exists
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Connecting buyers and sellerscreates new services
Uber Lyft
Connecting buyers and sellerscreates new services
Car2Go Bike Finder
New Services
Work in some densities and not in others
May require specific types of infrastructure accommodations Bike lanes Parking spaces Regulatory approval Legal ground rules
Can be contentious
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New Services
Are often driven by the private sector
And take advantage of new payment mechanisms
Imagine not just on-street and commercial parking
but
Shared condo parking
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New Services
New business opportunities are limited mostly by the imagination (and a good business case)
Smartphone apps allow delivery of information
Automated, electronic payment allows easy money transfer
Social media gives added security via personal identification
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The “Original” One Bus Away
Technology makes paying easier
New payment mechanisms are good, because we will need the money
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Dramatically increasing fuel efficiency standards
At least 12 companies with an electric car on the market
Changing Fuel Technology Helps the EnvironmentBut Decimates Gas Tax as a Revenue Source
Many aspects arealready available
Automated Vehicles – 95% Here
Or almost here
Others are still a ways off
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~
How does an automated car make this left turnwhen no other cars are automated?
35 mphSpeedLimit
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Fully automated, driverless vehicles are still years off
How automated vehicles are regulated greatly impacts what they mean for regional travel
In theory, theyReduce crashes,Double freeway capacity Arterial capacity???Decrease the “perceived cost” of time spent in the vehicle
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Does a qualified driver need to be in the automated car?
Can an individual own a fully automated car, or just a company with big liability insurance?
If individuals own them – VMT and sprawl goes upLots of extra miles driven (w/o people)Much lower perceived cost of congestion
If only Google & Uber own them - VMT goes downPriced per use, perception of cost goes up
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Key Policy Questions
Where tech goes next is uncertain