technological trends analysis of fuel cell electric ... · honda motor of japan was followed by...

Technological Trends Analysis of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle using

Patent Information

Young-Il Kwon Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information

66, Hoegi-ro, Dongdaemun-gu Seoul 130-741, Korea

ylkwn @kisti.re.kr

Abstract Patent citation information is created based on the applications submitted by the inventors and a

search report presented by examiners from the patent organization. This information contain the difference between rarely cited and frequently cited patents. For the patents registered in the U.S.A., Europe, and Japan, the references are presented with the application when created and examined. Therefore, the analysis of these references provide the number of forward citations of a specific patent, which is a useful index for estimating the quality of a specific patent. The quality of a patent can also be expressed through its impact and the degree of importance.

As the understanding of environmental conservation is globally expanded, there is an increasing demand for gas emission reduction and an interest in fuel cell electric vehicles as environmental friendly alternatives in preparation for the fossil fuel crisis. In science and technology research, patents are becoming an important source of information together with general academic information, since a patent is made based on the latest technology and theory in its area. Using the citation information as well as the technological content in the patents the claims and scope of patents themselves can be analyzed to understand technological trends and to predict the direction of newly emerging technology. The citation information of patents can be used to objectively identify the technological level of assignees and research groups who carry out similar research.

In this study, the patent information related to fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) were analyzed by patent trends, patent share by assignee, the focus of research and development of major assignees, new research areas, patent levels compared to the number of patent registrations by country, the relationship between backward and forward citations, and market power and assignees with the most patents.

Keywords: Fuel Cell, Electric Vehicle, Hydrogen, FCEV, Patent, Information, Technology, Trend.

1. Introduction

The purpose of this study is to analyse the technological level and competitiveness of patents in the

area of fuel cell electric vehicles using the patent information. The developmental stages of related technologies, patent share by assignee, and patent registration trends by IPC were analyzed using annual patent registration trends and patent portfolio analysis. Indices such as the number of citation per patent and patent family size were used to analyze the technological level of a major country’s fuel cell electric vehicles. Citation analysis was carried out to figure out the research and developmental stages of fuel cell electric vehicles in major countries and their technological competitiveness [1-3].

The technological impact of a research subject can be assessed by calculating the number of backward citations and the number of forward citations in a specific country. In other words, a frequently cited patent represents its technological maturity, while a rarely cited patent represents its beginning stage in technological development. In addition, a large number of forward citations is assumed to represent the high impact of technology, while a small number of forward citations is assumed to be otherwise [4]. Therefore, a patent frequently cited is considered to have high impact and mature technology.

The main content of a patent where the invention is described provides references such as other patents or academic papers, which are the intellectual basis for inventing the applicable technology. These references are the information sources for patent citation. Furthermore, during the patent

38

Technological Trends Analysis of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle using Patent Information Young-Il Kwon

International Journal of Engineering and Industries(IJEI) Volume2, Number4, December 2011 doi : 10.4156/ijei.vol2.issue4.5

examination process conducted by examiners from Patent Agency, an additional set of references is reviewed and presented in the final patent. OTAF (Office of Technology Assessment and Forecast) of the U.S.A. concluded that the frequency of citation of a specific patent in later patents can be used as a barometer to estimate the technological importance of the applicable patent [5].

In patent analysis, there is a qualitative approach where one closely analyzes the claims and technological content of each patent of the technology in question; on the other hand, there is a quantitative approach in which the analysis is made based on a quantitative data of the trend through time series analysis on the number of patent of the related technology [6-8]. 1.1. Introduction to fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV)

In a fuel cell electric vehicle, a fuel cell using the chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen

in the air drives an electric motor. As the vehicle runs on electricity, carbon dioxide and other pollutants are not emitted. Following hybrid vehicles, which use both electricity and fossil fuel, fuel cell electric vehicles have a high potential to lead the auto industry in the future. The competition between auto makers to develop fuel cell electric vehicles is intensified in response to increasingly stricter environment regulations to prepare for the exhaustion of fossil fuel resources [9].

1.2. FCEV trends by R&D

The R&D of fuel cell electric vehicle technology is performed by auto makers and fuel cell makers.

Its technological development will focus on core technology development for fuel cell commercialization including fuel cell stack, system robustness, startability and hydrogen fuel injection infrastructure. Auto makers including Toyota, Daimler, GM and Honda are focusing on research and development for the commercialization of fuel cell electric vehicles. To commercialize small vehicles, the auto price needs to be lower, regulations complying with zero fuel emission need to be legislated, and hydrogen filling stations need to be expanded for drivers’ convenience [10]. The city of Seoul in Korea is planning to operate 33 Mohave and Tucson ix fuel cell electric vehicles in the first half of 2011, and Hyundai Motors is going to start the mass production of Tucson ix fuel cell electric vehicles from 2015. The Korean government is planning to support hydrogen filling by expanding filling stations, as well as testing the operation of fuel cell electric vehicles [11]. 1.3. FCEV trends by country

Toyota Motor is planning to release the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) by 2015 in Japan, Germany, and the state of California in the U.S.A. with an estimated sale price of 50,000 dollars. A coalition of 13 major Japanese automakers and energy companies (including Toyota, Honda and Nissan) are joining together to expand the introduction of hydrogen FCEVs in 2015 and develop the hydrogen supply network throughout Japan. The two groups are looking to the government to join them in forming various strategies to support their joint efforts and to gain greater public acceptance of the technology.

With vehicle manufacturers and universities, China is promoting technological development led by national research institutes. As a result, the technological power of the Hydrogen FCEV has now reached the stage of commercialization.

In the U.S.A., many vehicle manufacturers are participating in driving demonstration of the FCEV conducted by the DOE and in programs related to the Hydrogen FCEV conducted by the state of California.

The U.S.A. installed hydrogen fueling stations in California as part of the Hydrogen Fueling Stations and Vehicle Demonstration Programs for convenient fueling of Hydrogen FCEV.

Germany continues research development and demonstration projects for the Hydrogen FCEV and hydrogen fueling station infrastructures as part of the National Innovation Program (NIP), and it has been and plans to invest a total of 14 hundred million Euros (2 trillion 100 billion won) from 2007 to 2016 through joint investment of industries [10],[12],[13]

39


2. FCEV assignees trend analysis 2.1. Data set and search scope

Patents analyzed in this study were registered in Korea, the U.S.A., Japan and Europe. The database

WIPS (www. wipsglobal.com) was used. The analyzed patents were registered from 2001 to 2010. A total of 1,270 patents were retrieved using the keywords related to fuel cell electric vehicles.

Table 1 . Data set for patent analysis and its scope

Country Field search scope Registration date search scope Korea

Title, Summary, Claim 12001.01.01

~2010.12.31 Japan U.S.A. Europe

2.2. Annual patent trends of FCEV

The number of patent registrations in fuel cell electric vehicle technology shows a steady increase

since 2000, and the number is still increasing in 2010, which includes an undisclosed period. It is expected to continue to increase in the future. Annual patent registrations had been increased until 2003, when the number slightly decreased, then increased again until 2006. After 2007, the number decreased a little because of the longer amount of time required from application to registration.

Figure 1. Annual patent trend

2.3. Patent share by FCEVassignees

Studying the patent trends of the top 10 assignees in Korea, the U.S.A., Japan and Europe showed

that the top 10 assignees accounted for about 71% of total patents, and the top 5 assignees accounted for about 63% shared by specific assignees.

Hyundai Motor in Korea was found to possess the most registered patents in the fuel cell electric vehicle area with 243 patents, followed by Japan’s Honda Motor with 220 and Toyota Motor with 153. Having tried hard to secure domestic patents to defend the domestic market and monopolize the enhanced technology, Hyundai Motors took the top ranking thanks to its patents registered in Korea. Nissan Motor in Japan and General Motors in the U.S.A. are also leading corporations in patent applications. 2.3.1. Patent share by FCEV assignee in 4 countries

40


Figure 2. Patent trends of top 10 assignees (Korea, U.S.A., Japan, Europe)

2.3.2. Patent share by FCEV assignees in 3 major countries

In the analysis of the patents registered in the U.S,A., Japan, and Europe, the top 10 assignees accounted for about 80% of the entire patents while the top 1-5 assignees accounted for about 58%. Honda Motor of Japan turned out to be the top-ranked assignee with 219 patents, and Hyundai Motor of Korea ranks 9th with 16 patents. Honda Motor of Japan was followed by Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor, and General Motors of the U.S.A. in patent application.

Figure 3. Patent trends of top 10 assignees (U.S.A., Japan, Europe)

41


2.4. R & D focus areas by major assignees

When R&D focus areas were studied using the IPC distribution by major assignee, it was found that top major assignees focused on fuel cells (H01M), the layout of electric systems or motor systems (B60L), and the layout of power transmission gears (B60K). Hyundai Motor had more research on driving control systems (B60W), cooling (F01P), fuel cells (H01M), and the layout of system device or motor system (B60L) than other makers.

Figure 4. R&D focus areas by major assignees 2.5. Active research areas in recent years

When we analyzed research areas launched in recent years using subclasses of IPC, vehicle driving

control systems (B60W) and automobile trailers (B62D) had higher patent rates despite a relatively small number of applications. Continuous monitoring is needed for patents of vehicle driving systems (B60W), of which research is active in recent years.

Fuel cells (H01M), the layout of electric systems or motor systems (B60L), and the layout of power transmission gears (B60K) were areas found to have lower patent ratios compared to the relatively large number of applications, mostly applied for before 2004.

Figure 5. Analysis on active research areas in recent years

42


※ We analyzed the research areas launched in recent years based on IPC subclasses (4 digits) by dividing the registered patents into two periods (2000-2004 and 2005-2009) and found out which areas had higher patent ratios in recent years (2005-2009); which is calculated by recent patent ratio = (number of registrations in 2005-2009)/(number of registrations in 2000-2009)

2.6. Patent levels compared to patent registrations by country

When it came to patent levels compared to patent registrations, by country, analysis showed that

Japan, the U.S.A. and Germany performed more research and relatively high levels of patents, and Korea had a relatively low level of patents despite the large number of cases.

France had relatively fewer cases despite its high level of patents. On the other hand, the U.K. and Switzerland had high levels of patents but less than 10 patent registrations, which can be regarded as insignificant.

※ Patent levels were determined by assigning points to certain bibliographic information. On a scale of 15 points, 5 points were given for family information (weight was added for the areas of the U.S.A., Japan, Korea and Europe), 3.5 points for patent status (early disclosure, regular disclosure, early registration and regular registration), and 6.5 points for claim status (number of inventors, agent and number of families).

Figure 6. Patent levels compared to registration by country

2.7. Analysis of FCEV patents registered in the U.S.A. 2.7.1. Analysis of the relationship between backward and forward citations

When we studied the relationship between backward and forward citations by country using the

information of 438 patents registered in the U.S.A., we found that the U.S.A. had a high probability of possessing mature period technology since it had higher-than-average backward and forward citation ratios. Germany was analyzed as having a high probability of possessing source technology since it had a higher forward citation ratio, and Japan and Korea were analyzed as possessing relatively earlier stages of technology.

43


Figure 7. Analysis of the relationship between backward and forward citations

2.7.2. Analysis of the market power of each country considering quality level

When we studied the quality level and market power of patents by country using forward citations

and the family information of patents registered in the U.S.A. (438 cases), the U.S.A. was found to have a relatively high level of quality and market power. Germany was analyzed to have lower market power but a higher level of quality. The market power and quality levels of Japan and Korea were analyzed to be lower than average, especially those of Korea.

Figure 8. Analysis of the market power of each country considering quality level1

1 Family Patent Size (FPS) is calculated by dividing the average number of patent family of the country by total average number of patent family.

44


2.7.3. Analysis of top assignees among U.S.A. patents

When we studied the rankings of corporations with patent registrations in the U.S.A. (438 cases), the corporations with the most registered patents were, in descending order: Honda Motor, General Motors, Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and Ford Motor. Highly ranked corporations generally had more forward citations. Among lower-ranked corporations, Delphi Technologies was found to have a relatively high number of forward citations and to possibly possess a core element technology.

Figure 9. Ranking of top assignees in the U.S.A.

2.8. Joint application rate of major assignees and their cooperation relationships

In the analysis of joint application rates of top 10 major assignees, Hyundai Motor and Toyota Motor had the higher rates of common application than others.

Hyundai Motor has been cooperating mainly with universities in addition to its affiliated company (Kia Motor) for related research, while Toyota Motor has done collaborative research mainly with industries like Denso. In the analysis of common application and cooperative relationship, Japan has been active in collaborative research among industries for its industrialization.

Figure 10. Joint application rate of major assignees and their cooperative relationships2

2 In addition to the first applications of top 10 industries among major assignees, joint applications were included for analysis.

45


3. Conclusion

In this study, we showed the global technology development trends and the technological positions of major countries by analyzing the patent information. The research and development levels of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in major countries were studied. The citation trends were analyzed using patents related to those countries’ technological competitiveness. Results of the analysis shows that the U.S.A. Japan and Germany lead in the number of patents related to fuel cell electric vehicles.

Studying the R&D focus areas using the IPC distribution of major assignees, we found that the top major assignees were focused on fuel cells (H01M), the layout of electric systems or motor systems (B60L), and the layout of power transmission gears (B60K). These areas had a lower ratio of patent grants in recent years despite the relatively high number of researches. When it came to patent levels compared to the number of patents granted by country, Japan, the U.S.A. and Germany showed to have a high number of research cases and relatively high patent levels. Korea was found to have a relatively low patent level despite the high number of researches.

In the analysis of joint application rates of top 10 major assignees, Hyundai Motor and Toyota Motor had the higher rates of common application than others. Hyundai Motor has been cooperating mainly with universities in addition to its affiliated company (Kia Motor) for related research, while Toyota Motor has done collaborative research mainly with industries like Denso. In the analysis of common application and cooperative relationship, Japan has been active in collaborative research among industries for its industrialization.

4. Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant founded by the Korean Government (MEST) (NRF-C1AAA002-2011-0002336). 5. References

[1] Dietmar Harhoff, Frederic M Scherer, “Citations, family size, opposition and the value of patent rights”, Research Policy, vol.32, pp.1343-1363, 2003

[2] Martin Meyer, " Does science push technology? Patents citing scientific literature”, Research Policy, vol.29, pp.409-434, 2000

[3] Juan Alcácer, Michelle Gittelman, " Applicant and examiner citations in U.S. patents: An overview and analysis," Research Policy, vol.38, pp.415-427, 2009

[4] Han-seop Shin, “Designing Integrated Patent Index for Effective Use of Patent Information,” Management Science, Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, vol.24, no.2, pp.1-18, 2007

[5] OTAF, "US Department of Commerce, Patent, and Trademark Office: Sixth Report", Office of Technology Assessment and Forecast, 1976

[6] Chen Yu-Shan, “Using patent analysis to explore corporate growth,” Scientometrics, vol.88, no.2, pp.433-448, 2011.

[7] Liu Su-Houn, Liao Hsiu-Li, and Pi Shih-ming, “Development of a patent retrieval and analysis platform – A hybrid approach,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol.38, pp.7864-7868, 2011.

[8] Zheng Jia, Zhao Zhi-yun, and Zhang Xu, “Industry evolution and key technologies in China based on patent analysis,” Scientometrics, vol.87, no.1, pp175-188, 2011.

[9] Craig Davis, Bill Edelstein, et al, “Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Study”, American Physical Society, 2003.6.12

[10] Pike, "Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales to Cross the 1 Million Mark in 2020", Pike Research, 2011.4.19 [11] PCGG, "The first government-wide green car development roadmap published”, Presidential

Committee on Green Growth,, 2010.12.6 [12] Ma Zilin, Mao Xiaojian, "Battery Parameters' Matching and Optimizing for HEV City Buses",

JDCTA, Vol. 5, No. 8, pp.1-8, 2011 [13] Zhi-jia Xia, Bo-ping Wang, Cheng-dong Wu, Yun-zhou Zhang, Cui-juan Li, "Design of

Intelligent Vehicles Control System based on Photoelectric Detector", IJACT, Vol. 3, No. 6, pp. 92- 100, 2011

[14] Kehua Yang, Bo Wang, WenWu Dan, "A Dynamic On-demand Updating Algorithm of Data Freshness in Vehicle Control System", AISS, Vol. 3, No. 5, pp. 44-51, 2011

46


technological trends analysis of fuel cell electric ... · honda motor of japan was followed by...

Documents