techno-economical aspects of lte mobile broadband at 800 mhz and 2.6 ghz
DESCRIPTION
Public conference on "LTE: new frequencies 2.6 GHz & 800 MHz – a chance for a new image of mobile telephony?", Friday October 8th, Warsaw, Poland.TRANSCRIPT
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Techno-economical aspects of mobile broadband From 800 MHz to 2.6 GHz.LTE: new frequencies 2.6 GHz & 800 MHz – a chance for a new image of mobile telephony? Friday October 8th, Warsaw, Poland.
Dr. Kim (Kyllesbech Larsen)Technology Economics, T-Mobile
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 2
Story…..
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 3
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
17 June 2010
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Changing market.Social trends and technological indicators.
Digitize Socialize Individualize
1.60+ bn internet users.
Next 1+ bn by 2015.
4.1+ bn mobile users.
<10% on mobile internet.
250+ bn e-mails per day.
40+% more than 5 MB.
20+ hrs video per day
400+ mn registered users.
25+ mn Mobile-TV users in APAC
$4.5+bn mobile gaming revenue
10+bn mobile apps downloads.
86+ mn active ebay users
400+ mn active users.
100+ mn mobile users.
2.5+ bn photos per month
2 x as active ! as fixed users
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2009: 45M Mobile users, 2.8M mobile broadband users, 21M internet users,.3.6M Facebook users (56% female, 65% 18-35),
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 5
The 3G traffic jam!
3G capacity crunch.
Re-farming existing spectrum.
New spectrum demand.
Empty 2G roads - in time?
The incumbent mobile operator’s near-future … “it aint pretty”!
Re-farming GSM!
HSPA+ versus LTE ?
Technology timing!
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 6
The Greenfield spectrum… “happy” short-term, a tougher future.
Lots of Hz per customer!
High speed mobile broadband!
Great customer experience!
Happy startup … plenty of quality.
Fixed-like demand!
Dramatic Hz / customer drop!
Additional spectrum and/ortechnology needs!
Tougher future … growth limitations.
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 7
Telco Europe is all about efficiency … … avoiding shareholder unhappiness …
2010 – 2015 ILLUSTRATION
Western Europe
Growth markets
EBITDA GROWTH
OPEX GROWTH
REVENUE PRESSURE
REVENUE GROWTH
Source: Pyramid Research 2010 & BoA Merrill Lynch 2010 Mobile Matrix.
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 8
The Poland 2015 …broadband everywhere?, for everyone?
Almost all house-hold will have a PC.
1 out of 2 people will have mobile broadband 2.
6 out of 10 house-hold with (fixed) broadband 1.
PCs
(85% HH)Fixed
broadband(60% HH)
MobileBroadband
(50%)
430
+%
Source: Pyramid Research 2010.1 Fixed broadband: xDSL, Cable, FTTx, … 2 HSPA, LTE.
Trend 2 demand for always best connected.
Trend 1 mobile internet devices will exceed PCs.
Trend 3 geometrical growth in data traffic.
Population38mn
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
Spectrum benchmarking2.6 GHz requires least 9 times the site density to match 800MHz.
850 MHz
DL power
Coverage area
UL power (typical limitation for coverage)
Illustration
×9 ×6 ×4.5 ×1 900 MHz – 800 MHz (digital dividend)
2.6GHZ
2.6 GHz
Available bandwidth for LTE
LargeVery small
LowHigh
190 MHz
2.1 GHz 1.8 GHz
2×60 MHz 2×75 MHz 2×35 MHz 2×30 MHz
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
Poland … Spectrum1 overview.
14*0.9
19*1.8
302.1
18*0.9
19*1.8
302.1
18*0.9
19*1.8
302.1
100.9
302.1
201.8
201.8
100.9
50TDD
700 – 900MHz
1700 – 2100MHz
2500 - 2700MHz
Rural – Urban
Low capacity
Very good coverage..
Urban/Sub-urban.
Very good capacity.
Ok coverage.
(Dense) Urban.
High capacity.
Poor coverage
Era OrangePlus Play CenterNet Aero2
67 to 62 MHz 40 MHz 112 MHzIllustration
* Bands broken up 1 Total view of UL + DL 2 Based on 2009 actual customers.
120.8
Sferia
20 (UL) + 30 (DL) MHz TDD-LTE
2×20 MHz FDD-LTE
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
Poland … New spectrum opportunities.
2 × 30 MHz@ 800 MHz
2 × 70 MHz @ 2.6 GHz2500 - 2700MHz
(Dense) Urban / City coverage.
High capacity
Relative poor propagation.
700 – 900MHz
Rural - urban coverage.
Very good propagation.
Lower capacity.
Low-frequency spectrum (≤ 2.1 GHz) is more valuable than higher-frequency spectrum Initial coverage is more valuable than limited coverage and high capacity. Low frequency spectrum can capture more population for significantly less cost. Below 20 MHz spectral capacity limitation will limits the overall spectrum value.
High-frequency spectrum can be valuable as capacity or for wireless DSL-business models. Bandwidth below 30 MHz is of lower value than higher bandwidths. Only urban population should be used for valuation. TDD spectrum is in general of lower value than FDD (i.e., due to propagationn characteristics).
1:30+
1
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
UK
D 2
D 2
Spectrum pricing & perceived value.2.6 GHz is perceived to be of very low value compared to lower frequency spectrum that offers economical and efficient coverage.
Average spectrum price
in US$/MHz/Pop.
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
US 1
US
US
HK
SE
NOR
FI
NL
CAN
CAN
Auctioned spectrum in GHz
UMTS2.1 “hyper-hyped” valueLog-scale
India 3 Max
India 3 Min
NL
NL4
D 2
D
DK
1 US 700 MHz auction 2008,2 German 800 MHZ – 2.6 GHz
auction 20103 Indian 3G / BWA 2.3GHz
auction 2010.4 Dutch 2.6 GHz auction 2010.5 Austrian 2.6 GHz auction 2010.
India 3
AT 5
Economicalcoverage Artificial scarcity
Capacityenhancement Capacity overlay.
No (real) demand. Government push for new entrant.
Very dense, small area coverage (HK). Low absolute price compared to GDP. Perceived value add (DK, SE).
Very dense, small area coverage, high GDP.
Large area, low pop density, very low GDP
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
The beauty of the “beast”Our customer, the smart-phone and its apps.
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Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
1 + 1 = 2 (yesterday’s communications).
Mobile network
……
.....
…………
…………….
…….
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Illustration
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010
1 + 1 is no longer just 2 (1 device - multi-tasking).
Web 2.0
Mobile network
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Apple push notification
service (APN).
Illustration
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 16
Mobile broadband versus fixed broadband demand.
11/3
20
Note: In relative usage
70↑+
100+
Mobile broadband700 MHz – 2.1 GHz
BWA2.3 – 2.5+
GHz
FixedwithWiFi
Mobile industry: hardly any QoS pricing mainly based on volumetric FUP.
Wireless & Fixed Broadband business model uses QoS-based pricing.
Lots of small volume events
&
very high signaling load due to mobile apps notifications
High volume / P2P / streaming…
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 17
3G on vitamins, HSPA on steroids with HSPA+ & ++.HSPA roadmap offers substantial speed and ecosystem scale effects.
HSPA
14.4 Mbps
HSPA+
21- 28 Mbps
HSPA+
42 Mbps
Data Sticks / Netbooks
Devices 1
Chipsets
Huawei Data StickNov. 09
Netbook (June 2010)
Samsung
Android
Nokia
Motorola
Qualcomm MDM 8200
ST Ericsson M570-V3
Qualcomm MDM8220
ST Ericsson M570 & U8500
Huawei Data Card
Qualcomm
MSM 7230
QSC6295
Network
Qualcomm
MDM 8200
Huawei Data Stick
1H 2009 1H 20111H 2010
HSPA++
84+ Mbps
2012+
5 MHz 5 - 10 MHz 10 MHz 15 - 20 MHz
1 iPhone 3Gs supports HSDPA 7.2 Mbps for iPhone 4 & iPAD HSDPA 7.2 Mbps/ HSUPA 5.76 Mbps.
31 / 11 5 July 20101,000+
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 18
Current mobile broadband option space.
BlocksSpectrum
Total bandwidth
2×5 MHzHSPA+
2×10 – 15 MHzHSPA+ (LTE)
2×20+ MHzLTE (HSPA+)
DL Speed 21 – 42 Mbps 42 – 84+ Mbps 168+ Mbps
Era FDD 67 MHz(5 Hz per cust)
(0.9), 1.8 & 2.1 GHz
2.1 GHz None
Plus FDD 67 MHz(5 Hz per cust)
0.9, 1.8 & 2.1 GHz
2.1GHz None
Orange FDD 62 MHz(5 Hz per cust)
0.9, 1.8 & 2.1 GHz
(1.8), 2.1GHz None
Play FDD 40 MHz(11 Hz per cust)
0.9 & 2.1 GHz 2.1GHz None
CenterNet, Aero2 & Sferia
FDD 62 MHzTDD 50 MHz
0.8, 0.9, 1.8 GHz
1.8GHz
1.8 GHz2.5 GHz TDD
For 3 major operators little existing LTE optionality.
4 top players lack optimum LTE spectrum conditions (i.e., 40 MHz).
C+A+S have (currently) the strongest LTE spectrum position in Poland.
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 19
Migration & re-farming to 3G & LTE.
(215 @ 2.1 GHz)
2G(210 MHz @ 1.8 GHz)
3G
2G
Customer migration from
3G LTE3G
Free
2G LTE(210 MHz @ 1.8 GHz)
New Customers
After some time 2G
to 4G migration.
LTE
How to perfect existing legacy spectrum – part 1.Re-farm own spectrum is complicated, costly and prone to be service affecting.
2G
3G
Note: 3G includes R99, HSPA, HSPA+, similar 2G includes Voice, GPRS & EDGE
LTE
ILLUSTRATION
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 20
(215 @ 2.1 GHz)
2G(210 MHz @ 1.8 GHz)
3G
2G
3G
Free New Customers
ILLUSTRATION
How to perfect existing legacy spectrum – part 2.Re-farming GSM to UMTS in rural area accelerate penetration of mobile broadband.
2G 3G(900 MHz)
3G3G @ 900
2G @ 900
UMTS900
Today there are more than 400+ UMTS900 devices.
3G
Rural migration & re-farming to UMTS900.
Note: 3G includes R99, HSPA, HSPA+, similar 2G includes Voice, GPRS & EDGE
Rural UMTS3G
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 21
Balancing demand & quality.
(215 @ 2.1 GHz)
2G(210 MHz @ 1.8 GHz)
3G
2G
3G LTE
Migration
3G
Free
New CustomersILLUSTRATION
(220 @ 2.6 GHz)
New spectrum allows more efficient technology migration.
Dense &Urban Areas
(210 @ 800 MHz)
LTERuraltoUrban Areas
LTE
2G
3G
LTE
Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology – T-Mobile, Warsaw, Poland, 8 October 2010 22
Macro economical benefits of broadband internet access everywhere.
Mobile broadband smart phones will increase spectrum demand rapidly.
Re-farming legacy spectrum will be complex, costly and impact quality.
Why should we care?
Un-economical spectrum pricing will delay and limit such benefits.
Without access to new spectrum resources operators will be growth limited.
Access to new spectrum paramount to ensure existing customer quality.
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Contact:
[email protected]: +31 6 2409 5202http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen
Thank you very much!