techno-economic comparison of series hybrid, plug-in hybrid,

Journal of Power Sources 195 (2010) 65706585

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Power Sources

journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com

Techno , pfuel cel

Oscar P.R , AnUtrecht Univer 4 CS U

a r t i c l

Article history:Received 15 DReceived in reAccepted 25 AAvailable onlin

Keywords:Series hybrid cPlug-in hybridFuel cell carWheel motor

serietermomdrparal

nd coomp344103carselecttive e

hybrid cars are competitive when driving large distances on electricity, and/or if cost of batteries comedown substantially. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 6069g CO2 km1.

2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introdu

More thderived fromsidered prosupplies [1,of air pollut[3,4].

To redugen and eleHydrogen chigh efcieany other ptribute andelectricity cfossil, nuclethe dependrity [11,12]Researchersment of the

Recent dPrius and H

CorresponE-mail add

0378-7753/$ doi:10.1016/j.ction

an 90% of the transport sector is powered by fuelsoil. However, the consumption of these fuels is con-

blematic due to costs of oil, doubts about of security of2], greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the emissionsants such as NOx, PM10 and volatile organic compounds

ce dependence on oil in transport, the use of hydro-ctricity in cars has been advocated for decades [57].an be converted to electricity in a fuel cell (FC) car withncy, generating no tailpipe CO2 emissions and hardlyollutants [8]. However, a costly infrastructure to dis-store hydrogen will be required [9,10]. Hydrogen andan be produced from a wide variety of energy sources;ar as well as renewable. Both can therefore decreaseence on fossil energy sources and increase energy secu-. However, costs of fuel cells and batteries remain high.give varied and uncertain appraisals of the develop-costs of alternative drivetrains [1317].evelopments show that hybrid cars such as the Toyotaonda Civic hybrid have lower fuel consumption and

ding author. Tel.: +31 030 253 7646; fax: +31 030 253 7601.ress: [email protected] (O.P.R. van Vliet).

thereby lower emissions than cars driven by internal combustionengines (ICEs) only. Although the Prius is more expensive than acomparable ICE car, over 1million units have been sold as of 2007[18], showing that there is a market for alternative drivetrains. Asof 2008, hybrid cars have received more and more attention. Withmany manufacturers selling or preparing new models, hybrid carsseem to be on the verge of mainstream adoption.

Research by Demirdven and Deutch [19] and the EU JRC [20]has shown that the performance of current FC drivetrains is compa-rable to the performance of a parallel hybrid drivetrain. However,the FC drive train has more potential for reducing emissions on thelong term.

In these studies, the series hybrid drivetrain was not takeninto account. In this drivetrain, the ICE is only used to generateelectricity and not to power the wheels directly: only an electricmotor drives the wheels. The series hybrid drivetrain can be seenboth as an alternative to regular cars and parallel hybrids, as wellas an intermediate stage towards fully electric or fuel cell cars: Itavoids both the limited range and recharging issues of an electriccar, as well as the expensive fuel cells and the lack of infrastructurefor refuelling a hydrogen car. The Chevrolet Volt was announcedas the rst series hybrid in mass production, and is to go on sale in2010 [21].

In this article, we examine the competitiveness of series hybridcompared to fuel cell, parallel hybrid, and regular cars.We use pub-lic domain data to determine efciency, fuel consumption, total

see front matter 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.jpowsour.2010.04.077-economic comparison of series hybridl and regular cars

. van Vliet , Thomas Kruithof, Wim C. Turkenburgsity, Copernicus Institute, Science, Technology and Society Group, Heidelberglaan 2, 358

e i n f o

ecember 2009vised form 12 March 2010pril 2010e 20 May 2010

arcar

a b s t r a c t

We examine the competitiveness ofcars. We use public domain data to degreenhouse gas emissions resulting fras an alternative to petrol, diesel andelectric or fuel cell cars.

Wecalculate the fuel consumption afour fuel cell car congurations, and ccars may reduce fuel consumption bygas emissions may be reduced to 89diesel cars (156gkm1). Series hybridconsumption than those with central

The fuel cell car remains uncompeti/ locate / jpowsour

lug-in hybrid,

dr P.C. Faaijtrecht, The Netherlands

s hybrid compared to fuel cell, parallel hybrid, and regularine efciency, fuel consumption, total costs of ownership andivetrain choices. The series hybrid drivetrain can be seen bothlel hybrid cars, as well as an intermediate stage towards fully

sts of four diesel-fuelled series hybrid, four plug-inhybrid andared these to three reference cars. We nd that series hybrid7%, but cost D 500012,000 more. Well-to-wheel greenhouseg CO2 km1 compared to reference petrol (163gkm1) andwith wheel motors have lower weight and 721% lower fuelric motors.ven if production costs of fuel cells comedownby 90%. Plug-in

O.P.R. van Vliet et al. / Journal of Power Sources 195 (2010) 65706585 6571

costs of ownership (TCO) and GHG emissions resulting from drive-train choices. We investigate if series hybrid technology can makecars more efcient, particularly in view of the possibility in a seriesdrivetrain to replace the central electric motor and transmissionwith electric motors built into the wheels.

Production costs of ICEs are widely available in the publicdomain [20,22]. This is not the case for alternative drivetrains, butmuch research was performed on single components using tech-nological learning, analogy studies and manufacturer overviews toestimate future costs [2325]. Production costs of a series hybriddrivetrain are expected to be higher than for an ICE drivetrain,because series hybrid drivetrains have larger electric motors andcomponents that are not yet mass produced.

Operating costs of ICE drivetrains are known in detail [26,27,20],but there are little data available in the public domain on costs ofoperating alternative drivetrains and their inuence on the totalcost of ownership of a car.

We therefore aim to answer the following three questions inthis article:

What are the costs and fuel consumption of electric drivetrains,powered by fuel cells or as a series hybrid?

What are the TCO and well-to-wheel GHG emissions of using afuel cell or series hybrid car, in the short and medium term?

Dependingondrivinghabits,which among the ICE, FC, andhybridcars would attain the lowest total cost of driving?

We describe our research methods in Section 2, and derive costsand fuel consumption for components in Section 3. We dene 15vehicle congurations, and derive their costs and well-to-wheelemissions ihabits in Sein Section 6

2. Method

2.1. Drivetr

Thedrivof fuel in thdiagram of

Reference diesel drivetrainThe reference car is a compact 5-seater, themostwidelyused car

class in NL that includes the VW Golf, Ford Focus, Renault Megane,ToyotaCorolla andOpelAstra [20,28].Weuse a referencedrivetrainwith properties similar to the diesel Golf drivetrain (see Fig. 1a).

Hybrid drivetrainParallel hybrid cars, such as the Civic hybrid, have an ICE and a

small electricmotor. The electricmotor and the ICE canbothdeliverpower to thewheels (seeFig. 1b). Fuel consumption is slightly lowerthan for regular ICE cars [19,20]. Series hybrid cars use an engine-generator and a separate electric motor to power the wheels (seeFig. 1c). Mixing these designs is also possible, as done in the Prius.

The electric motor in a series hybrid car can be installed as acentral motor, using a gearbox and differential like a regular car,like in the Volt. Alternatively, electricmotors can be installed in thehubs of thewheels of the car, like in the Volvo C30 Recharge andHi-Pa Drive Ford F150 concept cars and e-Traction busses and trucks.The latter drivetrain does not require the use of a gearbox becausethe largerdiameter allowswheelmotors todeliver sufcient torque(see Fig. 1e).

Fuel cell drivetrainThe FC drive train is very similar to the series hybrid drive train,

but it replaces the engine-generator and conventional fuel tankwith a fuel cell and hydrogen storage device (see Fig. 1d and f). Wedo not consider fuel cells with a fuel reformer because of the extracost and reduction in energy efciency introduced by a reformer(cf. [20]).

Referrefeharavehi

s chaeissthexchace ccyc

Fig. 1. Diagra allel hfuel cell drivet l celln Section 4. We derive TCO, also depending on drivingction 5. Finally, we discuss our results and uncertainties. Conclusions are drawn in Section 7.

s

ains

etrain consists of parts that contribute to the conversione tank into kinetic energy in the wheels. Fig. 1 shows adifferent drivetrains.

2.1.1.Our

Main cThe

such aLike Wwe usetions, ereferendriving

m of the energy ows in six different types of drives trains; ICE drivetrain (a); parrain with central motor (d); series hybrid drivetrain with wheel motors (e) and fueence carrence car has a 74kWdiesel-fuelled direct injection ICE.cteristics of the reference car are shown in Table 1.cle platform is dened as everything but the drivetrain,ssis, suspension, doors, seats, windows, and assembly.et al. and the EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) [26,20],same platform for our hybrid and fuel cell congura-nging only the drivetrain. The fuel consumption of thear is based on the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)le.

ybrid drivetrain (b); series hybrid drivetrain with central motor (c);drivetrain with wheel motors (f).

6572 O.P.R. van Vliet et al. / Journal of Power Sources 195 (2010) 65706585

Table 1Characteristics of the diesel ICE reference car [29, 2010 DICI in 20].

Vehicle characteristics Components Weight (kg) Cost (D )

Engine power (kW) 74 Vehicle platform 1016 15,725Auxiliaries p neTorque (Nm r andCoefcient oCoefcient o lystSurface area er-treFuel consum iculatApproximatMaintenance full ta

a Gearbox c

For the Treference capetrol consuWe use a paconsumptioof electric d

2.1.2. FuturSeveral

of ICE efcrange betwbenets arvariable vathat more sciency imprimproveme

Improvehybrid carsimprove. Bedo not essentrains, we u

Weexpewill stay arengine [20]

2.2. Drivetr

To derivthe electrictransmissioelectric car

Ptotal =(Ptir

Ptire friction =

Pdrag = 12

in which mthe efcienPtire friction tthe powercoefcient,eration con the densi(m2), Cd therun auxiliarmission efdivided bywheel moto

primlost

or a.seri

E andhan asultr thathat

tal c

calcucar, ccomp

useaseof a pr3]. Beantit343

Fixedchasst esurceual cainve

ndicen inciesge ration

Variacost1

herower use (kW) 0.3 Diesel engiin 1st gear, approximately) 520 Basic startef rolling resistance 0.01 Gearboxf drag 0.32 3-Way cata(m2) 2.10 Euro IV aftption (MJ km1) 1.77 Diesel parte range (km) 550 Fuel tankcost (D km1) 0.043 Diesel 90%

Totals

ost is included in engine cost.

CO comparison,we also use the petrol equivalent of ther andaparallel hybrid car. Thepetrol reference car has amption of 1.90MJkm1 and costs D19,160 to purchase.rallel hybrid conguration from JRC which has a petroln of 1.51MJkm1 with a battery that allows for 20kmriving [20], and that we recalculated to cost D24,950.

e developments in the reference drivetrainassessments have been made of future developmentsiency. Estimates of efciency increases until 2020een 7.5% [30] and 25% [31]. These fuel consumptione reached through downsizing of the engine, betterlve timing and a more efcient gearbox. Others claimtringent emission laws will compensate possible ef-ovements and therefore do not expect large efciencynts for the ICE [20].ments in baseline ICE carry over into parallel and series(which also use ICE), and fuel cells are also likely tocause unknown but similar efciency improvementstially change the comparison between different drive-

se current efciency data for all drivetrain components.ct that theproductioncostsof an ICEdrivetrainof74kWound D2600 for a petrol engine and D4300 for a diesel.

ain efciency

e the efciency of a series hybrid drivetrain, we useity consumption of electric cars, because the motor andn are the same. Total energy required for driving anat a constant speed can be calculated as follows:

e friction + Pdrag)/transmissionmotor

+ Pauxillaries

Crr m g v

v3 A Cd

otor is the efciency of the electric motor, transmission

Thethat isused fbattery

In athe ICcient tthat resmallethe ICE

2.3. To

Weof thecosts,costs.

WeIn the cprice ogies [3use quin [24,

2.3.1.Pur

and coture soto ann

Forprice iinatiocurrenexchanfor in

2.3.2.The

in D kmhas higcy of the transmission (axles, gearbox, differential, etc.),he power needed to overcome rolling resistance, Pdragneeded to overcome drag, Crr the rolling resistancem the mass of the vehicle (kg), g the gravitational accel-stant (9.81ms2), v the velocity of the vehicle (ms1),ty of air (1.22kgm3), A the frontal area of the vehiclecoefcient of drag, and Pauxiliaries is the power needed

ies (air condition, car stereo, etc.). We dene the trans-ciency as the mechanical power exerted by the wheelsthe mechanical power generated by the motor. For ar, by denition, transmission = 1.

train. DriveMRT cost. W120,000kmthe MRT coAverage MRpetrol car aa petrol-fueremainder

The lifes[40] and 24etrains of 2145 4080alternator 0 300

50 n/aa

0 430atment 0 300e lter 0 400

15 125nk 23

1248 21,360

e advantage of hybrid cars is that much of the energyin braking in a regular car can be recovered and

cceleration, also depending on the efciency of the

es hybrid, the total efciency is further inuenced bygenerator (motor). For a series hybrid to be more ef-parallel hybrid, the losses due to motor and generator

from the engine indirectly driving the wheels, must ben the benets from resizing and balancing the load onare possible [32].

ost of ownership

late the TCO in D year1 as a function of the xed costsomposed of a chassis and drivetrain, and the variableosed of maintenance, repair and tires (MRT) and fuel

analogies, expert opinions and data from the literature.f technological analogy, thekey factors determining theoduct are identied and compared to similar technolo-cause of a lack of data, we have been largely unable toative methods such as experience curves (as described6]).

costs (initial purchase)e cost of estimates of the drivetrains are based on coststimates of components from publically available litera-s. We use an annuity factor to convert the purchase costpital costs, with a commercial lifespan of 10 years [37].stment costs, harmonised EU-25 average consumers from 1996 to 2007 [38] are used to compensate fordata from years other than 2005. Costs in non-Euro

are converted to Euro rst, using Interbank currencyates averaged over the entire year [39], and correctedafterwards.

ble costs (lifetime, maintenance, repair and tires)s for maintenance, repair and tires (MRT) are expressedand are not constant. In general, an older drivetrainmaintenance and repair (M&R) costs than a new drive-

train maintenance and repair is only a part of the totale use an average MRT cost of 4.3 D ct km1 for the rstfor a compact Europeandiesel car [29].We assume thatst is the same for the remainder of the cars lifespan.T for the rst 60,000km is 3.8 D ct km1 for a similarnd for a petrol-fuelled hybrid [29]. We assume MRT oflled car is equal to 4.3 D ct km1 of the diesel car for theof its lifespan.pan of an ICE drivetrain can be between 192,000km0,000km [41]. We assume an average lifespan of driv-00,000km, though the drivetrain must be designed to


last far beyond this average. We therefore assume a design lifespanof 300,000km.

The NEDC is supposed to reect an average driving pattern, andthe average velocity of a car in the NEDC is 34kmh1 [42]. Withan average drivetrain lifespan of 200,000km, the drive train mustfunction for at least 6000h on average, and be designed to last upto 9000h.

2.3.3. Fuel costsWe initially assume an oil price of 80 $bbl1, close to the short

term projections in the World Energy Outlook 2009 [43]. At this oilprice, assuming 41.87MJkg1 and 820kgm3 for crude oil, fuelprices at the pump in the Netherlands are around 1.21 D l1 fordiesel and 1.40 D l1 for petrol (using [44,45,20]). This includes19% value-added tax (VAT) and excise duty (cf. [46]). Untaxed,prices are 19.3 D GJLHV1 or 0.69 D l1 for diesel and 19.9 D GJLHV1

or 0.64 D l1 for petrol.Electricity from the grid is not taxed as a transport fuel, but it is

subject to energy taxes in NL. The exact price of electricity fromthe grid deuse (separaator and thtariffs of grelectricity sRWENederexcluding a

There iscars nor a laco-evolutioproducing tof this articlthe costs of4.5 D kg1 ahydrogen oprice for hy

Fuel cos

2.4. Uncert

Availabland TCO ofdeviation (trains compand therefoassume nopendent coderive from

In casesa realisticcost > know

Fig. 2. Breakdown of fuel prices into fuel costs and taxes.

Table 3Mass, surface area, Cd and Crr for RAV4 EV and EV1 [48,5254].

Toyota RAV4 EV GM EV1

Mass (kg)

unknox >

rid d

ectric

re artimeromies herefoonger, thsiontricate thl elecset

e conSAE Jcars,etermine the losses in various components of the drivetrainin the electric motor and transmission, air drag, tire friction,for auxiliaries), we further examined the RAV4 EV and EV1.sistance that the car has to overcome on a at road is thethe rolling resistance and drag. The difference between the

Table 2Electricity con

Electricity co EVa Energy CS Priusa Hymotion Priusa Tesla Roadsterc

Aggregated 110

Cold startNo air con 91 79With air c 108 107

Warm startNo air con 82 79With air c 104 106

We assume an the Prius models [51].a Source: Idab Source: Gec Source: Tepends on several factors, including quantity, time ofte tariffs for daily and nocturnal use), network oper-e provider. We use the average of variable home-useid electricity in NL in early 2009 of several large Dutchuppliers (EON Benelux, Elektrabel, Eneco, Essent, Nuon,land). This grid price is 0.10 D kWh1, including VAT butdditional energy taxes (cf. [46]).at present neither a large eet of hydrogen poweredrge network of hydrogen lling stations. However, then of hydrogen-fuelled cars and the infrastructure forhe hydrogen and refuelling the cars is beyond the scopee. Based on Shell data, Kramer et al. [47] have estimatedproduction and distribution of hydrogen from coal ats of 2020, excluding VAT. This is equivalent to a price off 44.3 D GJLHV1 including VAT. We use this as baselinedrogen produced on a large scale.ts are summarised in Fig. 2.

ainties

e data are often not precise. Uncertainty in efciencyour selected congurations is calculated as standard

) from the indicated value. The costs of most drive-onents depend on congurations but not on each other,re have independent cost uncertainties. We thereforeco-variance for propagation of uncertainty in inde-

mponents and full co-variance if the cost uncertaintiesthe same underlying variable.where either an upper or a lower bound exceededvalue (for instance, upper bound of a future

n current costs), we assumed an uncertainty of

A (m2)CdCrr

x = |xwhere

3. Hyb

3.1. El

Theat thisdiffer fthe serand th

AmRoadstconverdo eleccalculacentra

Theaveragon theof the

To d(lossespowerThe resum of

sumption (in drive cycle) of selected electric cars.

nsumed (Whkm1) General EV1a Motors mid-sizeb Toyota RAV4

only 96 145 131

ditioningonditioning

ditioningonditioning

AC to battery charging efciency of 90% and a 96% battery discharge efciency forho National Laboratory [48].neral Motors [49] (approximate mid-size vehicle simulation result).sla Motors [50].1510 13472.8 1.890.35 0.200.0027 or 0.0045 0.005 or 0.008

wn xcertain|/2. The samecorrectionwasapplied to casesx (which makes no sense for costs).

rivetrain

drivetrain efciency

e no series hybrid cars or fuel cell cars sold to consumers. However, the drivetrain of a series hybrid car does nota battery electric car (BEV). The only difference is thatybrid car has a generator to get a larger driving rangere the battery can be smaller.electric cars used by consumers are the current Teslae late Toyota RAV4 EV and General Motors EV1. Plug-in

s also exist of the Prius, by Hymotion and Energy CS, asl versions of many other cars. These cars can be used toe electricity consumption of a series hybrid car with atric motor.of fuel consumption data in Table 2 yielded a simplesumption of 10320Whkm1 for the whole vehicle1634drive cycle. Variations aredue toweight and shapeas well as the components used in the drivetrains.


Table 4Power consumption, tire friction, drag, total resistance and drivetrain efciency of the Toyota RAV4 EV, General Motors EV1 at 72 and 96kmh1.

Toyota RAV4 EV General Motors EV1

Velocity (ms1) 20 20 27 27 20 20 27 27Electricity consumption (Whkm1) 293 293 440 440 177 177 234 234

Crr 0.0027 0.0045 0.0027 0.0045 0.005 0.008 0.005 0.008Rolling resistance (kW) 0.80 1.34 1.07 1.79 1.33 2.13 1.77 2.84

Air resistance (kW) 4.87 4.87 11.54 11.54 1.83 1.83 4.34 4.34Total resistance (kW) 5.67 6.21 12.61 13.32 3.16 3.96 6.11 7.17

Power to drivetrain (kW) 7.9 7.9 16.1 16.1 4.7 4.7 8.4 8.4Power from source (kW) 8.2 8.2 16.4 16.4 5.0 5.0 8.7 8.7

PCE+motor efciency 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90Transmission efciency 0.80 0.88 0.87 0.92Combined d 0.83

Table 5Electric motor

Type )

AC inductionBPM motor >BPM motor >Generic elec

a Source: Deb Source: JRC

power thatlost in the d

Table 3 sRAV4 EV ancalculate foefciency omodule (PCand a powe

Fromkncalculate th(20 and 27We nd anfound in sim

For charefciency ogenerated bdischargedby the electfor chargingbattery [51]

3.2. Central

Almost aed transm

Efciency anThe cos

how that emotor drive

motor

uctionuctionontrolontroller >200ka 316 8.3ic controllerb 19.0

ce: Delucchi et al. [41].ce: JRC [20].

1Whkm1, including charge/discharge losses. If poweredgrid, conversion losses increase this to 11923Whkm1.

tion costscentral electric motor consists of three parts, the motor

Table 7Transmission

Type

Gearbox andGearbox andHybrid drive

a Source: Deb Source: JRCrivetrain efciency 0.72 0.79 0.78

costs.

Fixed (D ) Variable (D kWe1

motora 13.020ka 107 17.0200ka 15.1tric motorb 8.0

lucchi et al. [41].[20].

themotor delivers and the total resistance is the energyrivetrain.hows the mass, surface area and drag coefcient of thed EV1. Both electric cars use low-friction tires, and wer both value we found for Crr. Furthermore, we use anf 90% for electricmotor andpower controller electronicsE) at constant speed, a 96% battery discharge efciencyr consumption of 0.3 kW for auxiliaries [20,50,51].own electricity consumption at xed speeds [48,50],wee drivetrain efciency at velocities of 72 and 96kmh1

ms1) for the RAV4 EV and EV1, as shown in Table 4.transmission of 0.860.07, which is similar to the 0.89ulations by JRC [20].

ging and discharging the battery, we use a combinedf 94% [20]. We assume that half of the electricityy the on-board generator or fuel cell is charged andthrough the battery, and the other half is used directlyricmotor. For plug-in hybrids,weuse efciencies of 90%

Table 6Electric

Type

AC indAC indBPM cBPM cGener

a Sourb Sour

1062by the

ProducThethe battery from the grid and 96% for discharging the.

electric motor

ll existing electric cars use a single motor and a simpli-ission to connect to the wheels.

d fuel consumptionts of the electricity in the reference car depend onlectricity is generated. We calculated that the centraltrain with a generator or fuel cell and a battery uses

itself, the coelectric mothe producopment ofincreased toexceeded 3[55], we usthe 200,000estimates fo

Table 5motors. Foricant contrimagnet (BP

costs.

Fixed (D ) Variable (D kWe1)

differential >20ka 971 19.3differential >200ka 565 11.3adaptationsb 2630

lucchi et al. [41].[20].0.90 0.90 0.90 0.900.75 0.94 0.80 0.940.68 0.85 0.72 0.85

Fixed (kg) Variable (kgkWe1)

5 15 15 1 0.7

controller costs.

Fixed (D ) Variable (D kWe1)

controller >20ka 1205 8.6controller >200ka 376 9.2

ler >20ka 964 5.8ntrol electronics and a gearbox especially designed fortors. Deluchi et al. [41] provided equations to calculatetion costs of these three components and the devel-the production costs when the production volume is20,000and200,000units year1. As sales of hybrid cars

00,000units year1 in the US alone in 2007 and 2008e the 20,000units year1 costs as an upper bound andunits year1 costs as a lower bound. JRC also gave costr these components.shows the unit production cost estimates for electricsmall production volumes the xed costs have a signif-bution to total production costs of brushless permanentM) motors.

Fixed (kg) Variable (kgkWe1)

0.4 0.4

30


Table 8Breakdownof theproductioncosts andweight for anelectric drivetrainwitha74kWcentral electric motor.

Cost (D ) Weight (kg)

74kW electric motor 1000 281 7412Controller 1324 355 Gearbox 2144 652 30Total 4467 1288 10412

Table 6 shows the unit production cost estimates for electricmotor controllers. Again, xed costs play a bigger role when theproduction volume is small.

The gearegular geaelectric spoof less pow

Table 8 lmotor, calcthree differ

Lifetime, maAs electr

perature strWhile electerships curestimations[41]. To bethe MRT co

3.3. Wheel

A wheeldesign wasmanent mastationary areversed: Tthe stator iselectromagimum torquthe rim. A wcentral elecdifferential

Our wheTraction dea maximum800Nm. Mtotal of 58k

Efciency anBecause

or other pardoesnot sufmission ef(in Sectiontricity cons

electricmotor is 8919Whkm1 on an SAE J1634 drive cycle. Thisis 721% lower than a central motor car.

A 58kWmotor for thewheelmotor drivetrainprovides less thanthe 74kW output of the reference car, but its performance shouldbe at least equivalent, as the reference ICE produces around 55kWat the wheels (after transmission losses) with less torque.

Production costsWheels with a motor in the hub have a higher weight than nor-

mal wheels, so a specic sub-frame is installed that supports thewheel motor and its suspension. Some extra parts are also neededto produce a wheel motor drivetrain such as cables, software andspecial mounting parts. These are grouped under auxiliaries.

resecomps shoheelsize

sts oal pe auf pro

e, maR ofandfunlymompis susions wiclineentras tho

owns

bencalinof terenat vserieW.eveaccet plafortheh1

amoy ofn losf rollelociighe

Table 9Production co o >200

TheWheel SAuxilliariesSub-frameController

Totalrbox for a series hybrid is simpler and lighter than arbox. A single-speed gearbox for a 200kWe motor in anrts car weighs only 45kg [56]. Table 7 shows unit costserful transmissions.ists total production costs for a 74kWe central electriculated by adding the average of production costs of theent components.

intenance and repairic motors have fewer moving parts and face less tem-ess thanan ICE,weexpect the lifespan to exceed6000h.ric motors are simpler in construction than ICE, deal-rently lack experience in maintaining them. The M&Rdiverge from 15% higher to 50% lower than an ICE car

conservative and for the sake of simplicity, we assumests are the same as those of the reference diesel car.

electric motor

motor is an electric motor built inside a wheel. Therst used in a Lohner-Porsche of 1902. In most per-gnet motors, the housing of the electromotor remainsnd the centre spins inside it. In a wheel motor this ishe rotor of the electric motor is built inside the rim andplaced in the hub of the wheel. The stator is tted with

nets and the rotor with permanent magnets. The max-e that can be generated depends on the diameter ofheel motor drivetrain is more efcient than an ICE or atric motor, because no losses occur in the gearbox and.el motor has power output similar to an existing e-sign, TheWheel SM 450 [57]. The wheel motor deliverstorque of 400Nm and is installed in pairs for a total of

aximum power output is 29kW per wheel motor, for aW per pair.

d fuel consumptionwheel motor cars do not need a gearbox, differentialts of a conventional transmission, the wheel motor carfer losses in the transmission.Wedetermined the trans-ciency in the central motor drivetrain to be 0.860.073.1). Corrected for lack of transmission losses, the elec-umption of a wheel motor car with a 90% efcient

At pseatercosts i

Awonly inthe coa normthat thshare o

LifetimM&

areahis the ocosts cmotorsuspenwear. Awill dewith csame a

3.4. D

Onedownsenginethe reftion ormotorof 74k

Howods ofin moseratordeliver120km

Thevelocitmissiosum ostant vwith h

sts of wheel motors, for a single set of two motors, 100 sets [58] and extrapolated tSingle set (D )

M 450 11,714 68%1228 7%2156 13%2147 12%

17,245nt, production costs for a 58kWwheelmotor set for a 5-act car is D17,245 [58]. A breakdown of the production

wn in Table 9.motordiffers fromacommonpermanentmagnetmotorand shape. Therefore, we assume that at 100,000 sets,

f producing a wheel motor are the same as producingermanent magnet motor (see Section 3.2). We assumexiliaries and the sub-frame continue to have the sameduction costs as the electric motor and controller.

intenance and repairwheel motor drive trains is difcult to estimate. Therel ofwheelmotor cars on the road today. Thewheel itselfoving part in awheelmotor,which should reduceM&R

ared to central motor cars with a transmission, but thebject to vibrations that would be dampened by the carsin a central motor conguration which could increaseth central electric motors, it is expected that M&R costswhen there is more experience with a wheel motor. Asl motor drive trains, we assume that MRT costs are these of reference car.

caling the electricity generation device

et of the series hybrid drivetrain is the possibility ofg the electricity generation device, compared to thehe reference ICE drivetrain. The maximum power thatce car generates is 74kW, used at maximum accelera-ery high velocity of the car (>160kmh1). In a centrals hybrid, the electric motor also has a maximum power

r, the maximum power is only used in short peri-leration and for driving faster than is legally allowedces. In hybrid cars, a battery complements the gen-peak loads. Therefore, the generator only needs toelectricity to sustain maximum cruising speed, around.unt of electricity needed to drive a car at a constant

120kmh1 is the sum of rolling resistance, drag, trans-ses and motor losses of the car (see Section 3.1). Theing resistance and drag for the reference car at a con-ty of 120kmh1 is around 20kW, but increases rapidlyr speed due to drag (see Table 10). Including losses in

kmotor year1 production volume.

100 sets (D ) >100k sets year1 (D )

6488 810 228680 166 47

1194 292 821189 1066 619551 2335 362


Table 10Hybrid drive train energy requirements at various speeds, using reference car characteristics (Crr = 0.01, mass =1306kg, Cd = 0.321, A=2.1m2). Electricity consumption doesnot include charge/discharge or AC conversion losses.

Speed (kmh1)

Rolling resisAir resistanc

Total resistaTransmissio

Power to driPCE+motorAuxiliaries d

Power fromCombined dElectricity co

in power f in power t

the transmiis around 3

Generalhybrid. Tohof over 140tralmotor hto 46kW fodrivetrain d

3.5. Diesel g

A dieselelectricity gmotor contrto the moto

An enginefciency tbecause theruns constaprovides po

Efciency anThe efc

which it isso most ofdiesel ICE.[59]. Accounefciency, w

An efcion diesel enassume theengine in a

Fuel concar uses. On

Production cAt prese

this technocosts of thethe ICE in thD125 for a fof the engin

Using ththe electrictor to powestimate acar at a co

with.

e, maengie lifef the-genrmethatging

ing la.ICE thum pre dincess inostssedonster, te dirre eq

ectric

re arelec

ecical weveh50 80

tance (kW) 1.8 2.9e (kW) 1.1 4.5

nce (kW) 2.9 7.4n efciency 0.86 0.86

vetrain (kW) 3.3 8.5efciency 0.90 0.90raw (kW) 0.3 0.3

source (kW) 4.0 9.8rivetrain efciency 0.78 0.78nsumption (Whkm1) 80 122

rom source (kW) 0.31 0.79o drivetrain (kW) 0.28 0.71

ssion, the load in a central motor hybrid at 120kmh1

0 kW.Motorsusea53kWengine-generator in theirVolt seriesave similar reservecapacity, andallowsustainedspeedskmh1, we use a 53kW engine-generator for the cen-ybrid. The engine-generator can be downscaled furtherr the wheel motor hybrid, because the wheel motoroes not suffer efciency losses in the transmission.

enerator

engine-generator is a diesel powered ICE that drives anenerator. The electricity that is generated is fed to theoller that distributes electricity either to the battery orr directly.e-generator with batteries can be operated at higher

han an engine that drives the wheels of a car directly,engine load and speed can be kept such that the enginently at or near maximum efciency while the batterywer for sudden variations in power demand.

d fuel consumptioniency of an engine-generator depends on the load atoperated. The generator has an efciency of 9095%,the energy losses in an engine-generator are in theMaximum efciency of the ICE is approximately 40%ting for start-up or operations at lower thanmaximume assume an overall efciency of 33% [58,60].

ency improvement in the ICE can have a large effectgine-generator efciency. For consistency however, wesame net status quo development as with the diesel

reference drivetrain.

gratedwheels

LifetimAn

averagtime oengineis perfothe carof chanincludD1540

Anmaximperatudifferec jamM&R cis stresmore cHowevthan thcosts a

3.6. El

Theness of(h), sp

Totfor thesumption depends on how much electricity an electrice litre of diesel contains 36MJ and generates 3.3 kWhe.

ostsnt, a 42kW diesel engine-generator costs D3143 andlogy is quite mature [57]. If we use the electric motorprevious section and component breakdown from JRC,e generator has a cost of D1500+25 D kWe1. We add

uel tank and D730 for exhaust gas treatment to the coste-generator [20].is data, and assuming the uncertainty in costs is inmotor only, we estimate a 46kWe diesel genera-

er a wheel motor car at a cost of D4500200. We53kWe diesel generator to power a central motor

st of D4800200. We assume the controller is inte-

Some argueseconds onthe other hperiod of tistorage cap

Others dcan be usedgrid.

Lead-aciinsufcientand volumeuse nickel-tions are limthermal runteries in car100 120 140

3.6 4.3 5.08.8 15.2 24.2

12.4 19.5 29.20.86 0.86 0.86

14.3 22.6 33.80.90 0.90 0.900.3 0.3 0.3

16.2 25.4 37.80.78 0.78 0.78

162 212 270

1.32 2.09 3.121.19 1.88 2.81

the controller of the electric motor(s) that drive(s) the

intenance and repairne-generator used in stationary applications has antime of 15,000h at full load [60], far exceeding the life-car. Over the equivalent lifetime of a car, a normal

erator needs little maintenance. Normal maintenanced every 500h of operation. Over the 6000-h lifetime ofmeans approximately 11 times. Maintenance consiststhe oil and all lters. This costs approximately D140bor [60]. Total M&R costs over the lifetime add up to

at drives a car directly must be able to go from idling toower in a few seconds and back. This causes large tem-fferences in the ICE and puts stress on the ICE. Thesein load cause wear in an ICE. In urban trafc or traf-particular, this can lead to a shorter lifetime or higherfor the ICE. An ICE that drives an electricity generatorless, because the load is controlled electronically andant. This should lead to lower M&R costs for the ICE.he series hybrid drive train as a whole has more partsect ICE drive train. We therefore assume that total MRTual to the diesel reference car MRT of 4.3 D ct km1.

ity storage

e four important factors that determine the attractive-tricity storage devices (ESDs): cost per unit (D ), lifetimepower (kWkg1) and specic energy (kWhkg1).ight and price of ESDs also depend on the design goalsicle. For series hybrid cars, there is no universal goal.

that the batteries must withstand peak load for a few

ly to assist the engine-generator while accelerating. Onand, if a car has to deliver peak load for a prolongedme, for instance climbing a long hill, it needs enoughacity to last at least until the top of the hill.emand long driving ranges in battery mode so the caras a plug-in hybrid and be charged from the electricity

d batteries and ultracapacitors were found to havespecic energy, which would lead to excessive weightfor the battery pack. Many contemporary hybrid cars

metal hydride (NiMH) batteries, but future cost reduc-ited by the price of nickel [23]. Safety concerns (risk ofaway) have been a major reason for using NiMH bat-s instead of Li-ion batteries. New materials in the latest


Table 11Approximate properties of modern Li-ion batteries.

Manufacturer Name Sp. energy (Whkg1) Sp. power (Wkg1) Pack cost (D kWh1) Cycle life

Valencea UEV-18XP 90 1200 1000 2000A123 System 00Altairnanoc 00

a Source: Reb Source: Rec Source: Re

generation[61,62]. Weoptions.

3.6.1. MinimThe size

specic enePower s

the car.whiof the electrconguratiothis is enoumode for a

The capatime forwacient reserto drive 78drivetrain.a 1.3 kWh N0.7 kWh NiM

If the catery dependtrips madewe thereforat least 50kdependingtery, 80% ofinitial part

A purelylong rangerange 300

3.6.2. LifetiWhen a

be able to wdownto20%consideredbe over-dimis be enougand anodem20% and 90

The life300,000kmmode transin battery mThe storagetery pack focycles.

If the baless intensibattery pacbattery pac350,000km

Li-ionny exr hybighmerntrotech

mentnds0Wker, tcar,sts a

tionfounsempacitn Taike Nals [7e bigtteriexpe

g decassuWh

oweravyhkg

um r

eendadesper

sent

likendscate-o62] de tothe pe life

Seriesb 26,650 (cell) 110 30Nanosafe (cell) 90 30

fs. [66,67].fs. [61,68].fs. [62,69].

of batteries have greatly reduced or eliminated that risktherefore use lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries for storage

um capacity requirementsof the battery is determined by specic power and

rgy and its purpose.hould be large enough to enable decent acceleration ofchmeans the batterymust deliver themaximumpowericmotor(s) in a plug-in hybrid, and at least 50% in otherns. In case of emergency (such as a generator failure),gh to have the car function properly in battery-onlyshort distance.city of the battery must be at least 1.0 kWh, to allow

rming up of the generator or fuel cell and to provide suf-ves for using top speeds in emergencies. This is enoughkm on battery only, depending on the efciency of the

This is similar to a Prius (NHW20 model), which hasiMH battery pack and the Civic hybrid, which has aH battery pack.

r is to be used as a plug-in hybrid, the size of the bat-s on the preference of the consumer. Around 80% of theby cars is smaller than 50km [63, see also 61,49], ande assume that a plug-in hybrid must be able to drivem on the batteries. This requires a battery of 67kWh,on the electricity consumption of the car. With that bat-trips can be driven entirely in battery mode, as can theof the remaining 20% of longer trips.battery-powered electric car, without a generator for

travel, would need a battery of 3237kWh to achieve akm.

me requirementscar is used as a plug-in hybrid, the battery pack mustithstand many deep discharges. Discharging a batteryof its capacity (80%depthofdischarge (DoD)) is usually

deep discharging. The battery pack therefore needs toensioned by 25%, so that 80% of the battery capacity

h to drive 50km. In view of recent advances in cathodeaterials,we assumebatteries can be operated between

% charge without reducing lifespan.time of the electric drivetrain should be at least. We assume that the share of trips made in batterylates to at most 80% of the total kilometres being drivenode. Therefore the battery must last for 240,000km.device is designed for a range of 50km, so the bat-

3.6.3.Ma

tery fotheir hto combeing i

Theexperithousaof 200Howevhybridtion co

ProducWe

ogy.Asand calisted i

Unlmaterithat thion bais not ecomin

We800 D kcic pand he150Wminim

LifetimCal

electrobatteryAt pre[23].

Justthousathat st9000 [increasignoreover th

3.6.4.

r a plug-in hybrid must withstand up to 4800 discharge

ttery is only used to cover peak load, the usage will beve since there is usually no need to fully discharge thek. This will prolong the lifetime of the battery. NiMHks used in hybrid taxis are reported to have lasted over[64].

Table 12using the verent technoallows for tthe plug-incheapest uninclude a ch1400 20001600 10,000

batteriesperts consider Li-ion batteries the most preferred bat-rid cars, especially for plug-in hybrid cars because of

specic energy. Li-ion batteries have found their waycialization in small consumer electronics and are nowduced in hybrid electric cars.nical potential for Li-ion is enormous. In laboratorys, Li-ion batteries have shown to be capable of manyof deep discharge cycles. They have a specic powerg1 and a specic energy as high as 400Whkg1 [62].he battery must be able to withstand rapid cycling in aand formarket introduction it is important that produc-re low.

costsd several examples of state-of-the-art battery technol-bling cells into abatterypack reduces the specic energyy by 1015% [65]. The properties of these batteries areble 11.iMH batteries, Li-ion batteries do not contain scarce0,71]. For the coming decade however, it is expectedgest challenge will be to develop safe and low-cost Li-s with a calendar life of at least 10 years. Therefore, itcted that there will be a large decreases in price for theade.me that the Li-ion battery will cost approximately1, have a specic energy of 110Whkg1 and a spe-of 3000Wkg1. This is signicantly more expensivethan the cost of 140 D kWh1 and specic energy of1 that the US Advanced Battery Consortium set as theequirement for all-electric cars [72].

r life is an important factor for Li-ion batteries. Theand the electrolyte can wear rapidly thereby reducingformance and capacity, especially when fully charged.Li-ion batteries have a calendar life of around 5 years

for NiMH batteries, life can be extended to hundreds ofycles at lowDoD[61]. Becauseexperimentshaveshownf-the-art Li-ion batteries can withstand 4000 [23] toeep discharge cycles, it is expected that lifespan willat least 5000 cycles in the coming decade. We thereforeossibility that a battery pack may have to be replacedtime of a car.

s hybrid battery packs

shows the properties of our battery packs, calculatedhicle conguration in Table 13 (Section 4). For the cur-logy series hybrids, high specic power (see Table 11)he smallest, and therefore the cheapest batteries. Forhybrid, specic power is not a limiting factor and theit per kWh (see Table 11) is used. Plug-in hybrids alsoarger at a cost of D482 [41].


Table 12Properties of the four ESDs now and in the future, as assumed in this study.

Drivetrain Min. range (km) Capacity (kWh) Cost (D ) Weight (kg)

Central motor Hybrid Current 8 1.1 1737 12Wheel motoCentral motoWheel motoCentral motoWheel motoCentral motoWheel moto

Table 13Vehicle cong he ma

Vehicle con

ICE diesel reICE petrol rePetrol-fuelle

Central motoWheel moto



The biggreduce prod

3.7. Fuel ce

There isexchange mHonda havedemonstrat

Efciency anA fuel ce

83% [75]. Independsonto midrang10% and abcell works w

In a PEMing 120.1M

Production cThe pro

important hparts of thebipolar plat

At prese1000 D kW

have beenwill develo38 D kWe1

and 50450Tsuchiya &2020 aftervolumes, co

We assuthe sources11049 D kroughly equover 90% of

e, maer iding fhaser, dull lothe vin t

he my 200relythat

ydrog

enem te1 foabler Hybrid Current 8r Plug-in Current 50r Plug-in Current 50r Hybrid Future 9r Hybrid Future 8r Plug-in Future 50r Plug-in Future 50

urations investigated in this study. In brackets with minimum battery required is t

guration Abbreviation Motor power

ference car 74kWference car 77kWd parallel hybrid 62kW+30kWe

r series hybrid SHEV CM 74kWer series hybrid SHEV WM 229kWer plug-in hybrid PHEV CM 74kWer plug-in hybrid PHEV WM 229kWer fuel cell car FCEV CM 74kWer fuel cell car FCEV WM 229kWe

est challenge for batteries in the coming decade is touction costs without reducing specic capacity.

ll

a small market for mobile fuel cells, mostly protonembrane (PEM) cells [24,73]. BMW, Ford, Toyota andbeen the most active producers, building small runs ofion fuel cell cars [74].

d fuel consumptionll has a theoretical maximum conversion efciency ofpractice, fuel cell efciency is generally lower. Efciencytheworkloadof the fuel cell. Efciency ishighest in low-e loads, and lower than 50% only at loads smaller thanove 80% [20,75,76]. Therefore, we assume that the fuelith a constant efciency of 55% during a driving cycle.fuel cell with 55% efciency, 1 kg of hydrogen contain-

LifetimUnd

operatcyclesHowevingat fcell. Ifvoltage[73]. Timateland racell to

3.8. H

Theat roo36MJ lonly viJ generates 18.5 kWh.

ostsduction costs of the fuel cell are currently the mosturdle for large-scale introduction. The most expensivefuel cell are platinum, which is used as a catalyst, thees and the proton exchange membrane.nt the production costs of the fuel cell are between1 and 1800 D kW1 [24,25,73,77]. Many assessmentsmade on how the production costs of the fuel cellp. The conclusions vary between 2735 D kWe1 [13]or more [24], 50 D kWe1 [78,79], 294 D kWh1 [80]D kWe1 [81]. Assumptions have a strong inuence:

Kobayashi ranged between 12 and 120 D kW1 [24] in5million units are produced. With lower productionsts could remain much higher.me the current cost to be 1200200 D kW1. Based onabove, we assume long term production costs to beW1, contingent on large production volumes. This isal to the cost of diesel generators and a reduction ofthe current costs.

hydrogen (Cthe near fut3.6 for a wh70MPa. JRCH2 and to w

4. Cars

We conreference cgurations.conguratiorations are

We comerence dieshybrid.

4.1. Fuel co

Table 14(WTW) fue1.1 1467 107.4 75461374 83166.4 65851291 72151.4 1085 121.1 851 107.4 63791147 67136.4 55771077 5812

rginal capacity requirement (see Section 3.6.1).

Generator/fuel cell power Minimum battery required

n/a n/an/a n/an/a 2.9 kWh (20km)

53kWe 37kW (50%)39kWe 29kW (50%)

53kWe 7.7 kWh (50km)39kWe 5.1 kWh (50km)

53kWe 37kW (50%)39kWe 29kW (50%)

intenance and repaireal circumstances current PEM fuel cells are capable ofor 20,000h. Putting a fuel cell through many start/stopno signicant negative inuence on the lifetime [73].irty air from a city, hydrogen that is not clean or operat-ad forprolongedperiods can reduce the lifespanof a fueloltage that the fuel cell delivers is 10% lower than thehe beginning of the life, the fuel cell is considered worninimum lifetime of a fuel cell under full load is approx-0h. We assume that the fuel cell uses clean hydrogen

operates at full load, extending the lifetime of the fuelof the car (9000h, Section 2.2).

en storage

rgy density of hydrogen under atmospheric pressuremperature is very low at 0.0108MJ l1, compared tor diesel. This necessitates special storage methods. Thestorage option at this moment is compressed gaseous

GH2) [82,17]. This situation is expected to remain intoure [17]. A full tank is 4.2 kg for a central motor car andeel motor car, with storage pressure between 35 andestimates the price of such a tank to reach 575 D kg1

eigh 56kg [20].

structed 15 vehicle congurations using our data: 3ars, 6 current series congurations and 6 future con-The requirements are the same for current and futurens, and difference is in the vehicle costs. Our congu-

summarised in Table 13.pare these congurations to each other and the ref-el and petrol cars, as well as a petrol-fuelled parallel

nsumption and CO2 emissions

shows the tank-to-wheel (TTW) and well-to-wheell consumption of our vehicle congurations. The results


Table 14TTW fuel consumption, range on 36MJ (equivalent of 1 l of diesel) in the tank or battery, and WTW energy consumption. Plug-in hybrids have the same fuel consumption asregular series hybrids when driving on diesel.

Vehicle conguration Fuel Fuel consumption (MJ km1) Range (km) on 36MJ Primary energy used (MJ km1)

Reference diesel Diesel 1.77 20 2.010.4Reference petrol Petrol 1.90 19 2.190.55Parallel hybrid Petrol 1.51 24 1.740.44SHEV central motor Diesel 1.160.23 316 1.320.37SHEV wheel motor Diesel 1.000.21 368 1.160.34PHEV central motor Grid electricity 0.430.08 8316 1.130.26PHEV wheel motor Grid electricity 0.370.08 9720 0.980.24FCEV central motor Hydrogen 0.700.14 5210 1.040.21FCEV wheel motor Hydrogen 0.600.13 6013 0.900.2

Table 15Greenhouse gas emissions fromour vehicle congurations in g CO2 equivalent km1. Note that total emissionsmay also be sharply reducedbyothermeans, such as sustainablebiofuels.

Vehicle conguration Fuel TTW emissions (g km1) WTT emissions (g km1) Total emissions (g km1)

Reference diesel Diesel 131 255 1565Reference petrol Petrol 140 226 1636Parallel hybrid Petrol 112 184 1294SHEV central motor Diesel 8717 165 10320SHEV wheel

PHEV centraPHEV wheel

FCEV centraFCEV wheel

are dominaers: 33% forthe batteryuncertainty[20], electr86% grid efhydrogen p

Our calca wheel moOur only knbus that achto an equivmimics ligh

Table 15vehicle consions of ththe require

). W.3 givalenroge

ons vnerah1

t caons fctricrrect

Table 16Vehicle produ

Vehicle con

Reference diReference peParallel hybr

SHEV CM noSHEV WM nSHEV CM fuSHEV WM fu

PHEV CM noPHEV WM nPHEV CM fuPHEV WM fu

FCEV CM noFCEV WM noFCEV CM futFCEV WM fumotor Diesel 7516l motor Grid electricitymotor Grid electricity

l motor Hydrogenmotor Hydrogen

ted by the efciency of the on-board energy convert-the diesel generator, 55% for the fuel cell, and 86% for

charger (from the grid). TheWTWuncertainties includein marginal oil rening (20% for diesel, 25% for petrol)

icity generation at an assumed 445% efciency andciency [51], and differences between various ways ofroduction [83,20,84].ulations showareduction in fuel consumptionof44% fortor series hybrid compared to the reference diesel car.own empirical comparison is from an wheel motor cityieved a certied reduction of 6269% when compared

WTTand 73CO2equFor hydemissi0 if geCO2 kWwithouEmissilate elegas, coalent regular diesel bus in a SORT 2 driving cycle thatt urban trafc [8587].shows the emissions of greenhouse gasses from our

gurations. The GHG emissions depend on the emis-e car (TTW) and the emissions made in producingd diesel, petrol, hydrogen or electricity (well-to-tank

The seriewell-to-whthe CO2 oftricity has laround 69gwheel moto

ction costs (in D including VAT). Uncertainty depends on the assumptions about convers

guration Platform Electrical drive ICE/gener

esel 15725 0 5635trol 15435 0 3725id 15435 3662 2983

w 15725 4375747 482321ow 15725 9551 454618ture 15725 4375747 482321ture 15725 2335724 454618w 15725 4375747 482321ow 15725 9551 454618ture 15725 4375747 482321ture 15725 2335724 454618

w 15725 4375747 66,015w 15725 9551 57,296ure 15725 4375747 824525ture 15725 2335724 715622144 8919069 069060 060

0131 01310115 0115

e used TTW emission factors of 73.2 g CO2 MJ1 dieselCO2 MJ1 petrol and WTT emission factors of 143gt MJ1 diesel and 123g CO2equivalent MJ1 petrol [20].n and electricity, there are no TTW emissions, and WTTary by the source. WTT emissions are assumed to beted from solar or wind power, and up to 46759gfor electricity and 158gMJ1 H2 if generated from coalrbon capture and sequestration (CCS) [based on 84].romelectricity assume the samesuppliersused to calcu-ity price, fuelled with around 20% coal and 45% naturaled for grid losses.

s hybrid cars generate less CO2 than the reference cars:eel, the diesel series hybrid produces less than 60% ofthe reference diesel car. The plug-in hybrid using elec-ower CO2 emissions than any of the diesel-fuelled cars:km1 for a central motor and around 60gkm1 for ar conguration.

ion efciency and motor cost.

ator/FC Battery Total (D )

0 21,3600 19,16028260 24,9060

1 1737 26,6597768 1467 31,2891881 1085 26,0087768 851 23,4567481 75461374 32,46915788 65851291 36,40713041 63791147 31,30213858 55771077 28,183131210,600 1737132 87,85210,6279200 1467204 84,039920288 1085 29,430269446 851119 26,0662363


Fig. 3. Vehicle production costs (including VAT). Error bars indicate uncertainty in total production costs, given the assumptions about conversion efciency, and motor cost.

The prodence on traHowever, cable biofueof this artic

4.2. Produc

Table 16ponent andcosts are thof fuel cellcompeting

The prodthan the co(mostly ele

5. What do

5.1. Variabl

Table 17rations, witwe assumefuelprices, ttotal variab80% on elec

The varithan thosegeneratedbVariable coscell car hasfully electri

tal c

calkmyial dratiose reare 6s areion ode thonct.

x inc

m thrid cit disissi

nsumteresland

excisl andn ligof ttionandely. Btax,

Table 17Variable costs

Vehicle con

Reference diReference peParallel hybr

SHEV centraSHEV wheel

PHEV centraPHEV wheel

FCEV centraFCEV wheeluction of the fuel and/or electricity has as much inu-nsport emissions as the efciency of the drive train.alculating the impact of alternatives, such as sustain-ls and CCS, requires a context that is beyond the scopele.

tion costs

and Fig. 3 show the total production costs per com-the total production costs of the car. Total productione lowest for ICE drivetrains. Current production costsstacks are an order of magnitude higher than those ofdrivetrains.uction costs of any of the hybrid carswill remain higherst of an ICE car, because of the additional componentsctric motors).

es it cost to drive?

e costs

shows the variable costs of driving our vehicle congu-h fuel prices including VAT but no excise duty. Becaused no net efciency gains in the drive trains and stablehecurrent and futuremodelshave the sameresults. Thele costs for plug-in hybrids are calculated with drivingtricity and 20% on diesel.able costs for the wheel motor drivetrains are lowerfor the central motor drivetrain, whether electricity isya fuel cell, byadiesel generatorordrawnfromthegrid.ts of the ICE powered by petrol are the highest. The fuelthe highest variable cost among the congurationswith

5.2. To

We20,0005% soccongu

Thewhichurationexceptconclustrictlysuppor

5.3. Ta

Froof hybimpliclow-em10% coloan inNether

Fuelpetro

Tax o45.2%sumpcars,entir

Road

c drivetrains. Road tax i

(including VAT). Uncertainty derives from the assumptions on efciency.

guration MRT Diesel/petrol Electricity

esel 0.043 0.041trol 0.042 0.044id 0.042 0.035

l motor 0.043 0.0270.005motor 0.043 0.0230.005l motor 0.043 0.0270.005 0.0120.0motor 0.043 0.0230.005 0.0110.0l motor 0.043motor 0.043ost of ownership

culate the TCO assuming the cars are drivenear1, using a 10-year depreciation period and aiscount rate. Table 18 and Fig. 4 show the TCO of ourns with VAT only.sults are dominated by the cost of purchasing the car,090% of the TCO. The TCO of all of our hybrid cong-higher than those of the reference cars, with the sole

f the future wheel motor series hybrid. There we mayat the current generation of hybrid cars cannot competeostswith regulardiesel orpetrol carswithout additional

entives

e perspective of motorists, the nancial attractivenessars is inuenced by tax incentives, as well as a highercount rate [37]. Many countries have tax incentives foron cars and tax situations are country-specic.We use aer discount rate, which is closer to consumptive creditt rates, and the Dutch tax context as an example. In thes, three forms of tax affect TCO of a car:

e duty, an additional 0.38 D l1 on diesel, 0.69 D l1 on0.1085 D kWh1 on electricity in 2009 [46].

ht duty cars and motorcycles (BPM in Dutch), which ishe carprice,modied for the typeof engineand fuel con-in seven categories. BPM is further reduced for hybridplug-in hybrids and hydrogen-fuelled cars are exemptPM is a one-time payment.depending on the type of fuel and weight of the car.

s reduced by half for diesel-fuelled carswith TTWemis-

(grid) Hydrogen Total (D km1)

0.0840.0860.077

0.0700.0050.0660.005

02 0.0580.00302 0.0560.003

0.0310.006 0.0740.0060.0270.006 0.0700.006


Table 18Total cost of ownership (TCO, D year1) breakdown of our model congurations using a 5% social discount rate and VAT only, driving 20,000kmyear1 and depreciating over10 years.

Vehicle conguration Annualised purchase MRT Diesel/petrol/H2 Electricity TCO (D year1, VAT only)

Reference diesel 2766 866 813 0 4445Reference petrol 2481 834 899 0 4214Parallel hybrid 32250 832 713 0 47700SHEV CM now 3453100 866 534104 0 4852145SHEV WM now 405224 866 46298 0 5379101SHEV CM future 3368100 866 534104 0 4768145SHEV WM future 303897 866 46298 0 4365138PHEV CM now 4205204 866 10721 19538 5372213PHEV WM now 4715169 866 9220 16836 5841178PHEV CM future 4054179 866 10721 19538 5221189PHEV WM future 3650170 866 9220 16836 4776179FCEV CM now 11,3771376 866 617120 0 12,8601381FCEV WM now 10,8831192 866 533113 0 12,2821197FCEV CM future 3811349 866 617120 0 5294369FCEV WM future 3376306 866 533113 0 4775326

Fig. 4. Total coover 10 years.

sions of leintervals.

Fig. 5 showshybrid con

Mass prhybrid carsreference dcentral motst of ownership (TCO, kD year1) breakdownofourmodel congurationsusinga5%social

ss than 95g CO2 km1. Road tax is paid at regular time

that theDutch tax context is advantageous toour seriesgurations and future fuel cell cars.oduced parallel hybrid cars, and series and plug-inwith a central motor have equal or lower TCO than theiesel car in the current Dutch tax context. TCO of currentor hybrid cars is slightly higher.

While futax contexation willhigher TCOon large-sclarge-scalemore, thechange asuse.

Fig. 5. Total cost of ownership (TCO, kD year1) of our model congurations with a 10discount rate andVATonly, driving20,000kmyear1 anddepreciating

ture fuel cell cars have the lowest TCO in the currentt, it should not be taken for granted that this situ-be reached, as the current fuel cell cars have muchand the reduction in the cost of fuel cells depends

ale production. Some in the car industry do not expectpenetration of fuel cell cars until 2035 [88]. Further-tax incentives for stimulating fuel efcient cars mayhybrid and/or fuel cell cars break into mainstream

% consumer discount rate in the Dutch tax context.


Fig. 6. Lowestand reference

Using achasing cosand the difuncertainty

5.4. Who ca

Weshowcostswith (measures, ti.e. hybridsdriven in a yis used inst

When wtion of distaintersects inwhichdrivi(break-even

Fig. 6 shosive to pur79,00098MRT costscosts of thetral motor a500 D year

At less thanTCO of theDiesel cars,20,000kmycar at smallhigher dista

The plugSHEV at acould be mTCO differeuncertain zwheel motocentral motof the whee

Fig. 7 shhybrids, thfewer thandevelopmecheaper tha70,000840the fuel celguration olarge distan

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oweste.

te thhers

cussi

ivetr

h regc drivexistthe tralsolectr. Aveconivelyalsousedion)refe

drivi34 d

akess hacomse limratio

ybridilaris nred

issiomedcy i

ion isforef (implicit) consumer discount rates.TCO isopleths for current generation central motor congurationscars, using a 10% consumer discount rate.

33% discount rate and 15-year lifespan [89], the pur-t of the vehicle completely dominates the TCO rankingference made by taxes and fuel costs fall within themargins.

n benet from the series hybrid car?

ed that a series hybrid car canbeoperated at the lowestexisting) supporting incentives. However, without suchhe lowest TCO is found for cars with low variable costs,and plug-in cars. Variable costs depend on the distanceear and, for plug-in hybrids, the share of electricity thatead of diesel.e plot the TCO for different congurations as a func-nce and electricity share in total fuel, and project thea at plane, we obtain isopleth curves which show at

nghabits it is cheaper to switch to another congurationpoints).ws that the current series hybrid, though more expen-chase, becomes more attractive than a petrol car at00kmyear1. That large distance is due to the lowerof a petrol car, which partially offsets the lower fuelseries hybrid. The difference in TCO between the cen-nd wheel motor hybrid cars at this distance is less than1, evenwith current production costs forwheelmotors.60,000kmyear1, there is no signicant difference incentral motor series hybrid and parallel hybrid cars.the traditional choice for those who drive more thanear1, are found to be more expensive than a petroldistances, and more expensive than a series hybrid atnces.-in conguration becomes more attractive than the>80% share of electricity and large distances, whichutually incompatible in the real world. However, thences between a PHEV and SHEV are fairly small and theone around these isopleths lls the whole graph. Ther PHEV also benets less from lower fuel costs than theor conguration because the overall fuel consumption

Fig. 7. Lreferenc

promoand ot

6. Dis

6.1. Dr

Witelectriferenttreats

Wecient espeedshybridexclus

Wecycle (sumptfor theworldSAE J16and mpatternhybrid

Theconguallel hbe simhybridmotorstransm

Ourefciensumptis therethose ol motor conguration is smaller.ows that for future generations of wheel motor seriese petrol car remains attractive for those who drive37,0003500kmyear1. If our projections on cost

nts hold, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars will ben either petrol or diesel cars when driving more than00kmyear1, but the series hybrid has lower TCO thanl car at any relevant distance. Again, the plug-in con-nly becomes attractive at high shares of electricity andces.ings suggest that resources be devoted to further devel-d commercial introduction of wheel motors and to

6.2. Weight

We didwithout reg38% for evrolling resisincluded inweight incrwhile the wdiesel car.TCO isopleths for future hybrid and fuel cell congurations and petrol

e use of hybrid cars among groups such as taxi driverswho drive high distances.

on

ain efciency

ards to the fuel consumption, our calculations for theetrain depend on very few measurements of very dif-ing cars, and our transmission efciency result of 0.86ansmission as a black box.assumed 33% engine-generator efciency, and 90% ef-ic motors, which is generally true only for constantrage electricmotor efciency candrop to 84% in parallelgurations, where a small electric motor is used almostfor acceleration [20].treat fuel consumption results from the SAE J1634 drivefor electric cars, and to derive our platform fuel con-as equivalent to those achieved with the NEDC (usedrence cars). Furthermore, we assume that average real-ng conditions are properly represented by theNEDC andrive cycles. A driverwhodrives atmore constant speedsfewer stops will benet less from a hybrid car. Drivingve particularly strong impact on the benets of a seriespared to an ICE car and to fuel consumption in general.itations explain why our central motor series hybridns have lower average fuel consumption than a par-, while other authors assert fuel consumption should[32,90]. However, even if the central motor seriesot an improvement on the parallel hybrid, wheeluce fuel consumption signicantly by removing then.ium term calculations do not include potential furthermprovements to drivetrains. However, total fuel con-419% of TCO, and the effect of efciency gains on TCOsimilar to those variations in oil prices and smaller thannot correct fuel consumption for extra weight. For carsenerative braking, fuel consumption increases by someery 10% increase in car weight [91], due to increasedtance. For our series hybrids, weight increaseswere notthe fuel consumption calculations. Fig. 8 shows that theease for a central motor series hybrid is less than 5%,heel motor hybrid is slightly lighter than the reference


Fig. 8. Weight of our model congurat

6.3. Prices o

The prichave substathe price ofity or hydrohave the samshown in Fiity and hydbecause altsecond genexceed 75$

Lower hWe found eproduction17,92,84]. Wwould needhave a lowecell cars canfree of char

The inuThe addedpensated aThe competcars) theref

Imposinitiveness. Tand petrol (with strong

Fig. 9. Lowestand referencecould be drive

ion itings a c

hicle

founWh

c driion tranpro

are sptionle life assclea

-yeareaseicle

ds ofuncd therefureacmainsaml mof fuel

es of diesel and petrol are volatile. Therefore, they canntial inuenceon theTCO. To illustrate this,we increaseoil to 120$bbl1, without raising the price of electric-gen, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell carswould essentiallyeTCOas serieshybrids (uncertainty rangesoverlap), as

g. 9. This situation is unlikely because prices of electric-rogen do not move independently from oil prices, andernatives to diesel and petrol such as heavy crude anderation biofuels become competitive when oil pricesbbl1 [84].ydrogen prices make fuel cell cars more competitive.stimates of costs (not commercial prices at the pump) ofand distribution of 1536 D GJ1 [22,83, and combiningith fuel cell production cost of 110 D kW1, hydrogento cost less than 20 D GJ1 for the future fuel cell car tor TCO than future series hybrids. However, current fuelnot compete commercially even if hydrogen isprovidedge.ence of driving on grid electricity on TCO is limited.

costs for batteries in a plug-in hybrid were only com-t high shares of electricity and high driving distance.itiveness of plug-in hybrids (and, by extension, electricore mainly depends on the price of batteries.g a CO2 tax on cars and/or fuels may also shift compet-here are many ways of producing alternatives to dieselincluding biofuels) as well as electricity and hydrogen,

guratcalcularequire

6.4. Ve

We300 D kelectrireduct250kmbatteryPHEVassum

Cycwehavit is unthe 10be incrthe vehupwar

Thetial, anlack ofsold towill re

Thea wheely divergent GHG emissions. Because the vehicle con-

TCO isopleths for current generation central motor congurationscars with oil at 120$bbl1. Recall that 80% of car trips are


6.5. Availability of data

We observe substantial uncertainty ranges in component costsand fuel consumption, caused by a shortage of freely availabledata on therable datacosts of whproducer.

With regassume thatransparentwould likel

7. Conclus

We invefuelled sericonguratio

Resultssumption band reducelar diesel. Sand 721%central elecD500010,0

The highcially intere80,000kmyhybrid woutives. Includseries hybridriving arou

The TCOthan one w500 D year

ferred overto be the chuse wheel m

The fueldespite theproductionby 90%, serof ownershlarge distansubstantiall6069g CO2around 467

We recodardised veclarify the dto ICE andwheel motresults canmotors.

Acknowled

The authinsights onreviewers foThis study wed backcasarea of sustby NWO an

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Techno-economic comparison of series hybrid, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and regular carsIntroductionMethodsDrivetrainsReference diesel drivetrainHybrid drivetrainFuel cell drivetrainReference carFuture developments in the reference drivetrain

Drivetrain efficiencyTotal cost of ownershipFixed costs (initial purchase)Variable costs (lifetime, maintenance, repair and tires)Fuel costs

Uncertainties

Hybrid drivetrainElectric drivetrain efficiencyCentral electric motorEfficiency and fuel consumptionProduction costsLifetime, maintenance and repair

Wheel electric motorEfficiency and fuel consumptionProduction costsLifetime, maintenance and repair

Downscaling the electricity generation deviceDiesel generatorEfficiency and fuel consumptionProduction costsLifetime, maintenance and repair

Electricity storageMinimum capacity requirementsLifetime requirementsLi-ion batteriesProduction costsLifetimeSeries hybrid battery packs

Fuel cellEfficiency and fuel consumptionProduction costsLifetime, maintenance and repair

Hydrogen storage

CarsFuel consumption and CO2 emissionsProduction costs

What does it cost to drive?Variable costsTotal cost of ownershipTax incentivesWho can benefit from the series hybrid car?

DiscussionDrivetrain efficiencyWeightPrices of fuelVehicle costs and maintenanceAvailability of data

ConclusionsAcknowledgementsReferences

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