techno economic assessment
TRANSCRIPT
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7/28/2019 Techno Economic Assessment
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Life Impact | The University of Adelaide
Delivering innovative technologiesfor a clean energy future
Centre for Energy Technology
Techno-economic assessment of novel
engineering systems for stranded geothermalenergy resources.Ashok A. KaniyalProf. Graham Gus J. Nathan
Prof. Jonathan J. Pincus
School of Mechanical Engineering
Ricoh Clean Energy Scholarship
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7/28/2019 Techno Economic Assessment
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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 1
Centre for Energy Technology
Australias Energy Network
Electricity transmission
network
Geothermal
resources in
Cooper Basin
Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline
network (Geoscience Australia, 2009)
Geothermal
resources in
Cooper Basin
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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 2
Centre for Energy Technology
The Geothermal-Data Centre Concept
Geothermal data fibre link Capital: $60 m + $15 m (Op ex).
DBCDE, 2010.
Geothermal-data fibre link
Proposed NBN Co Fibre
optic linksFibre optic node
Geothermal-data
fibre link~ $60m
National Broadband
Network (NBN)(NBN Co., 2010)
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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 3
Centre for Energy Technology
Presentation outline
Gap in literature;
Techno-economic analysis framework;
Analysis of Geothermal-data centre concept early results;
Future work;
Conclusions.
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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 4
Centre for Energy Technology
Gap in literature
Economic assessment of geothermal direct heat and EGS CHPapplications.
Address limitations of other novel geothermal engineering systems, Dickinson et al. (2010) and Atrens et al. (2009).
Geothermal-data centre micro-grid follows complementary networkinfrastructure investment. c.f. Siddiqui and Maribu (2009), Fleten (2007).
Application of dynamic capital investment decision methods, Not considered in this context.
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Centre for Energy Technology
Aims
Technical feasibility of direct heat and CHP enhanced geothermal system
applications,
Economic viability of fibre optic network and geothermal plant under data
centre client servicing scenarios: Net present value - Deterministic static analysis,
NPV approach + dynamic demand and geothermal plant cost
uncertainty.
Social welfare analysis a case for public involvement in project.
Application of techno-economic framework to other eng systems.
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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 6
Centre for Energy Technology
Framework for techno-economic analysis
1. Develop a concept for an engineering system.
2. Steady state thermodynamic analysis of plant concept.
3. Static NPVanalysis of investment.
4. Dynamic analysis of investment in geothermal andnetwork resource faculties.
5. Social benefit analysis of investment in plant and networkresource.
Increasingd
etail
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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 7
Centre for Energy Technology
Standardised data centre unit
Modular data centre of total capacity 350 kWe (Barroso, 2007):
IT load = 270 kWe
Cooling load = 200 kWr
Cooling load
~200 kWrData Centre Co. NBN
market
Geothermal-data
fibre link
(1000-1500 km)
hv
IT electrical load
~270 kWe
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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 8
Centre for Energy Technology
EGS CHP Organic Rankine cycle
steady state analysis
2s3
2
Temperature[K]
Entropy (s)
[kJ/kg-K]
6 1
5s5
4
Geothermal water:
Tin = 508 K, TH = 490 K, T = 5 K,
= 50 kg/s.
Wnet = 1.2 MWe
Injection
well
Production
well
Feed pump
EvaporatorPre-heater
Geo-fluid:
water
Radialturbine
Generator
Ext. heat exchanger
Absorption cycle:
generatorRefrigeration
load
Geo-fluid
NH3-H20
5
3 2
1
6
4
68%
(Tc = 562 K, Tin = 375 K, TH = 320 K)
Absorption refrigeration
cycle (not shown)
DiPippo (2005)
Heberle and Bruggemann (2010)
Liu , Chien and Wang (2004)
490
320
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Centre for Energy Technology
Energy consumption pattern
Geothermal
Local CHP 14x Modulardata centres NBNmarket
Geothermal-data fibre link
(1500 km)
hv
Absorption chiller
cooling
Direct heat
cooling
Organic Rankine Cycle
1.2 MWe
Total IT electrical Load
3.75 MWe
3.6 MWth (input) > 2.8MWr (average required output)
Absorption chiller plant: COP = 1.0
Natural gas electricity
generation 2.55 MWe
Broad X Absorption Chiller Design Manual (2008)
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Centre for Energy Technology
EGS wells and ORC plant costing
Cost component A$ M
First injection + production well pair $30.5 M
ORC plant
+ natural gas storage tank + construction + contingency.
$3.82 M
Additional production wells $10.2 M
Ulrich (1984)
Vasudevan and Agrawal (2000)
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ORC plant economies of scale
4 PU $10.93 m
4 x 1 plant unit (PU)$15.87 m
2 PU x 2 = $11.69m
3 PU + 1 PU =$12.51m
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cos
tofplantandinstallation(A$M)
Geothermal ORC plant units (corresp. no. of production wells)
Grass roots capital (Full Plant) ($AUD)
Plant size incrementation cost comparison(4 plant units)
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Centre for Energy Technology
Local CHP Net Present Value scenarios
NPV scenario iteration Description
Mk 1 - Increasing rate of data centre commitment,
- Early investment = no construction lag.
Mk 2
- Increasing rate of data centre commitment,- Economies of scale investment in plant.
Rt= Annual revenue received per data centre,
Ct=
Capital and ongoing operating expenditure.i= Cost of capital = 6%
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Centre for Energy Technology
Local CHP Net Present Value scenarios
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-$160
-$140
-$120
-$100
-$80
-$60
-$40
-$20
$-0 1 2 3 4 5
N
PV/Totalexpen
diture
NPVan
dTotalexpendi
ture(A$M)
Number of capacity increments (production wells + ORC plant)
Total expenditure Mk 2 Total expenditure Mk 3
NPV/Total expenditure Mk 2 NPV/Total expenditure Mk 3
1
1 2
2
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Centre for Energy Technology
Fibre optic network investment
-$80
-$60
-$40
-$20
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Cumulativ
enetpresentvalue(A$M)
Years
Cumulative NPV of investment in Geothermal-Data Fibre link
28% subscription
40% subscription
50% subscription
60% subscription
Barroso (2007)
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Centre for Energy Technology
Dynamic investment decision
Real options approach.
An optimal path for capacity investments given uncertain:
Data centre demand for remote co-location and competition b/w sites,
Method: Aguerrevere (2003);
Influence of learning on cost of establishing geothermal wells and plant,
Method: Bolton and Faure-Grimaud (2009).
Social welfare analysis under uncertain demand
public subsidy? Method: Danau (2010).
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Centre for Energy Technology
Future work
Another application: Wind CHP a techno-economicanalysis?
H2-fuel cells CHP for NEM feed-in and adsorptiondesalination.
Common use plant c.f. fibre optic networkinvestment.
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Centre for Energy Technology
Conclusions
Enhanced geothermal system CHP applicationtechnically feasible.
Geothermal-data centre concept is economicallyviable.
Techno-economic framework applicable to otherunique engineering systems and geographies.