techniques of environmental scaning
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Video Tutorials
Environmental Analysis and ForecastingPosted by vigneshr ~ Posted Sat, 05/23/2009 - 15:52
Environmental Analysis and forecasting
MEANING OF ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
Environment : It refers to all external forces which have the bearing on the functioning of BUSINESS.
Analysis : It refers to detailed study or examination of something in order to understandmore about it.
Environmental Analysis : Scrutinizing of the external forces which have the bearing on thefunctioning of the BUSINESS.
WHY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ?
Analysis of the Environment makes the Business aware of the Threats & Opportunities inthe environment.
Then in the light of its Strengths & Weaknesses, the business chalks out courses/courses of
actions in order to Lessen the impact of Threats and grab the Opportunities.
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Stages of Environmental Analysis
SCANNING
MONITORING
FORECASTING
ASSESSING
SCANNING: It is the process of analyzing the environment.Identification of emerging/ensuing trends is a critical purpose of environmental scanning. The main aim of environmental scanning is alerting the organization to potentially significant externalimpingement before it has fully formed or crystallized.
Successful environmental scanning draws attention to possible changes and events beforetheir occurrence , allowing time for suitable action.
MONITORING : It entails perspective followup and a more indepth analysis of therelevant environmental trends identified at the scanning stage. The purpose of monitoring isto assemble sufficient data to discern(makeout) whether certain patterns are emerging.
The outputs of monitoring are threefold :
1. a specific description of environmental patterns to be forecast;
2. identification of trends for further monitoring;
3. identification of patterns requiring further scanning.
FORECASTING : Forecasting is concerned with the development of plausible directions of directions, scope, speed and intensity of environmental change to layout the evolutionarypath of anticipatory change.
ASSESSMENT : Assessment involves drawing up implications/ possible impacts. Inassessment, the frame of reference moves from understanding the environment of the focus
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of Scanning, Monitoring and Forecasting-to indentifying what that understanding of environment means for the organization.
In short, It involves drawing of possible impacts of the environmental changes on theorganization.
APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
There are broadly two approaches to Environmental Analysis :
1. Outside-in (macro) approach
2. Inside out (micro) approach
Outside-in (Macro) approach : This approach takes the very broad view of the businessenvironment., with a long term perspective and develops alternative scenarios of the future. Theimplications of the alternative scenarios for the industry and the organization are drawn up withreference to the different scenarios.
A scenario is a detailed description of how certain events may occur in the future and their consequences for the organization.
Inside-out (Micro) approach: It takes a rather narrow view of the environment, forecasts theimmediate future environment on the basis of ongoing environmental monitoring and derives the
implications of it for the industry and firm out of it.
Techniques of Environmental Analysis
TYPES OF FORECASTING :
1. Economic Forecast
2. Social Forecast
3. Political Forecast
4. Technological Forecast
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4. Monitoring
Techniques for Environmental Forecasting
Techniques can be classified under two heads:
1. Quantitative
2. Qualitative
Quantitative : It can be numberized i.e under this technique numerical data is used. The following are thequantitative techniques :
1. Ecometric Technique : It involves casual models to predict major economic indicators.When there is a well established relationship between two or more variables, that casualrelationship can be used to forecast future.
For example : If demand is a function of consumer income, the impact of an increase in consumer income on demand can be predicted using the equation representing the relationship between these twovariables.
b. Trend Extrapolation : Time series models assume that the past is a prologue to the future and
extrapolate the historical data to the future. We can say future is viewed in the light of
past under this technique
Qualitative Technique : Under this technique numerical datas are not used. The following are themethods of qualitative technique
1. Brain Storming : Brian Storming is a creative method of generating ideas and forecasts. Under thismethod, a group of knowledgeable people are encouraged to generate ideas, discuss and to make forecastson the basis of that.
Step1. Generation of Ideas
Step2. Discussion on the generated ideas
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It helps to understand the transformation of the industry environment.
It contributes in identification of risks.
It helps in formulation of strategies.
It keeps the manger informed, alert and dynamic .
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