technically speaking total return 1 yr (%) 9 · technically speaking august 12, 2013 | page 2 of 9...

Technically Speaking

Douglas Rowat, Equity Specialist August 12, 2013

Please read disclosure/risk information in Appendix A. Raymond James Ltd. 5300-40 King St W. | Toronto ON Canada M5H 3Y2.

2200-925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2.

S&P/TSX Comp: Technical Data S&P/TSX Composite Canadian Volatility

New 52-Week Highs % of S&P/TSX Comp Above 200-Day MA % of S&P/TSX Comp Above 50-Day MA

COMEX Gold (3 year) WTI Oil (3 year) Inside This Issue

CI Financial Corp. (CIX-T, $32.41): If It Ain’t Broke ............................................................ 2

Whitecap Resources Inc. (WTI-T, $11.42): If It Ain’t Broke Part II .......................................... 2

Artis REIT (AX.UN-T, $14.47): It’s Broke ........ 3

Raymond James Ltd. Guided Portfolios: Technical Indicators ...................................... 4

Updates ........................................................ 5

Previously Highlighted Stocks ....................... 6

Process and Methodology ............................ 7

Glossary ........................................................ 7

Copper (3 year) NYMEX Natural Gas (3 year)

Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd. Priced August 9, 2013

Current level 12,542.152-wk high 12,904.752-wk low 11,759.0Total return 1 mth (%) 2.2Total return 3 mths (%) 0.8Total return 1 yr (%) 9.1# weekly advancers 117.0# weekly decliners 116.0% new 52-wk highs 6.8% new 52-wk lows 2.1% new 4-wk highs 8.5% new 4-wk lows 11.9% above 200-day MA (%) 51.5% above 50-day MA (%) 61.7% MACD buy signal past 10 days 2.6% MACD sell signal past 10 days 29.4

Technically Speaking August 12, 2013 | of 9

CI Financial Corp. (CIX-T, $32.41): If It Ain’t Broke

CI Financial (CIX-T) continues moving higher within an uptrend channel. The MACD has bullishly remained in positive territory throughout the uptrend (boxed, third panel). The on-balance volume (fourth

panel) trends higher suggesting more buying than selling interest and confirms the underlying uptrend. On a relative basis, CI continues to outperform the S&P/TSX Composite (fifth panel).

Indicators point to a move to the top end of the channel, which targets upside to $34-35. A break down through the channel bottom would be bearish.

Whitecap Resources Inc. (WTI-T, $11.42): If It Ain’t Broke Part II

Like CI Financial, Whitecap Resources (WCP-T) continues moving higher in a similar uptrend channel. The shares are now challenging the early 2012 high.

Also like CI Financial, the MACD has largely remained in positive territory throughout the uptrend (boxed, third panel). The On Balance Volume and relative performance both also trend bullishly higher (fourth and fifth panels).

Indicators point to a move to the top end of the channel, which targets upside to $12-13. A break down through the channel bottom, which roughly coincides with the 100-day MA ($10.46), would be bearish.


Artis REIT (AX.UN-T, $14.47): It’s Broke

Artis REIT (AX.UN-T) has been making a series of lower lows since mid-2012. It has finally broken down through trendline support. A negative trending MACD and RSI confirm the downside momentum (second and third panels) as does the downtrending On Balance

Volume (fourth panel). Relative strength vs the S&P/TSX Composite is also breaking down (fifth panel). Next support lies at the $13.50 level, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A move up through the 200-day MA

(currently $15.81) may negate the downtrend.


Raymond James Ltd. Guided Portfolios: Technical Indicators

Table gives rough technical picture only. Individual scores are binary. Overall score represents the sum of six equally weighted metrics: higher number the better. Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd. Priced August 9, 2013

MACD Overall

Company Name Sym Price 1 Mo. 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 200-Day 50-Day +/- Score

Canadian Growth

Agrium Inc AGU $87.93 -7.7 -5.4 -7.4 N N -1.5 0

Bombardier Inc BBD/B $4.84 -1.4 3.3 38.3 Y Y 0.0 5

Cineplex Inc CGX $39.31 6.1 17.1 40.0 Y Y 0.5 6

Cameco Corp CCO $20.25 -11.2 -3.8 -0.2 N N -0.5 0

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CNQ $31.40 -5.2 5.4 3.0 Y Y 0.0 5

Canadian Tire Corp Ltd CTC/A $89.56 9.1 7.1 31.1 Y Y 1.4 6

Detour Gold Corp DGC $9.35 3.7 -18.1 -62.9 N N -0.1 1

First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM $17.94 15.4 -5.6 -9.6 N Y 0.2 3

Linamar Corp LNR $33.25 5.6 20.8 60.3 Y Y 0.7 6

Manulife Financial Corp MFC $17.81 -0.8 14.5 68.9 Y Y 0.2 5

Open Text Corp OTC $69.28 -5.8 -0.2 28.4 Y N -0.8 2

Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp PRE $20.15 0.4 -5.6 -12.7 N N 0.3 2

Sun Life Financial Inc SLF $33.87 2.9 16.1 62.8 Y Y 0.5 6

Toronto-Dominion Bank/The TD $86.66 2.1 5.1 13.5 Y Y 0.6 6

Vermilion Energy Inc VET $56.91 7.5 12.7 28.3 Y Y 1.3 6

Whitecap Resources Inc WCP $11.42 2.2 11.5 65.2 Y Y 0.2 6

Yamana Gold Inc YRI $10.13 0.9 -16.1 -32.2 N N -0.2 1

Canadian Dividend Plus+

Algonquin Power & Util ities Corp AQN $6.84 -5.7 -16.4 6.8 N N -0.1 1

AltaGas Ltd ALA $37.33 -0.7 -3.0 27.4 Y Y -0.0 3

Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $58.10 1.8 -0.6 16.5 Y Y 0.3 5

BCE Inc BCE $41.77 -4.7 -11.5 -2.3 N N -0.4 0

Canadian Apartment Properties REIT CAR-U $21.68 -2.8 -14.3 -7.8 N N -0.4 0

Cenovus Energy Inc CVE $29.88 -7.5 -0.5 -5.3 N N -0.3 0

Corus Entertainment Inc CJR/B $24.97 2.8 2.0 14.8 Y Y 0.2 6

Enbridge Inc ENB $44.32 -3.5 -6.0 14.8 N N -0.1 1

Fortis Inc/Canada FTS $31.74 -1.9 -7.1 -2.8 N N -0.1 0

Inter Pipeline Fund IPL-U $23.35 0.2 -2.2 15.9 Y Y 0.1 5

North West Co Inc/The NWC $24.09 3.9 -4.2 15.6 Y Y 0.1 5

Royal Bank of Canada RY $63.70 4.1 4.3 29.7 Y Y 0.5 6

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp SC $60.04 24.0 29.4 43.9 Y Y 2.5 6

Suncor Energy Inc SU $33.21 2.4 4.3 6.5 Y Y 0.4 6

TELUS Corp T $30.92 -2.8 -16.8 -1.2 N N -0.4 0

Global Equity

Apple Inc AAPL $454.45 7.3 1.0 -25.2 N Y 9.9 4

Aflac Inc AFL $61.52 4.0 14.7 37.9 Y Y 1.0 6

Bank of America Corp BAC $14.45 4.9 11.1 87.4 Y Y 0.3 6

BioMed Realty Trust Inc BMR $19.98 -4.3 -10.1 12.9 N N -0.2 1

Bunge Ltd BG $77.13 3.9 6.9 20.6 Y Y 1.3 6

BNP Paribas SA BNPQY $33.42 15.8 18.5 65.5 Y Y 1.2 6

Cummins Inc CMI $124.02 7.5 8.9 24.7 Y Y 2.5 6

Deere & Co DE $81.74 -2.6 -10.9 5.4 N N -0.5 1

DR Horton Inc DHI $18.89 -17.0 -30.4 5.5 N N -0.8 1

Delphi Automotive PLC DLPH $55.56 1.1 22.8 96.2 Y Y 0.8 6

General Electric Co GE $24.25 2.1 6.8 18.8 Y Y 0.2 6

Linear Technology Corp LLTC $39.91 0.0 4.7 24.1 Y Y 0.5 6

Eli Lil ly & Co LLY $54.18 5.3 -0.3 29.3 Y Y 0.7 5

Merck & Co Inc MRK $48.39 -0.3 6.3 12.7 Y Y 0.3 5

NXP Semiconductor NV NXPI $35.18 8.1 16.4 45.0 Y Y 1.0 6

QUALCOMM Inc QCOM $66.27 6.9 3.1 8.8 Y Y 1.2 6

Toyota Motor Corp TM $127.57 -1.6 5.2 59.9 Y Y 1.0 5

Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT $76.90 -0.3 -1.9 6.9 Y Y 0.3 4

Price Above Moving AverageTotal Return (%)


Updates

Company Ticker Date

highlighted Date closed Comments Closing off?*

Bullish Trend

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM 06/07/2013 Found support at $26.00. Breakout potential still in play.

Algonquin Power & Utilities AQN 07/10/2013 Support wavering.

Argonaut Gold Inc. AR 06/07/2013 Potential double-bottom formation.

B2Gold Corp BTO 07/26/2013 Double-bottom formation intact.

Bell Aliant Inc. BA 05/08/2013 Testing 50% Fibonacci retracement support.

Black Diamond Group Ltd. BDI 07/26/2013 Breakout intact.

Cameco Corp CCO 01/23/2013 Consolidating but with upside bias.

Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE 07/19/2013 08/12/2013 Double-bottom formation failed. Now below all major moving averages. MACD has dipped below centerline. Y

Cineplex Inc. CGX 05/08/2013 Breakout intact.

Eldorado Gold ELD 06/07/2013 Breakout intact. 100-day MA cleared.

Enbridge Inc. ENB 06/18/2013 Successfully bouncing off trendline support.

Gibson Energy Inc. GEI 06/18/2013 08/12/2013 Channel support failed. Y

Gildan Activewear Inc. GIL 03/19/2013 Uptrend intact.

Home Capital Group HCG 07/10/2013 Uptrend intact. May face resistance at $61.50.

Imperial Oil Ltd. IMO 07/19/2013 Breakout failing.

Keyera Corp. KEY 07/19/2013 Long-term trendline intact.

Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. KGI 05/31/2013 Breakout failing. Critical support at $2.60-2.70.

Pengrowth Energy PGF 07/19/2013 Breakout intact.

Premier Gold Mines Ltd. PG 06/18/2013 Potential double-bottom formation.

Reitmans Canada Ltd. RET’A 07/26/2013 Double-bottom formation intact.

Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF 07/10/2013 Uptrend intact but may face resistance at current levels.

Torex Gold Resources Inc. TXG 05/31/2013 Finding support at current levels.

Trican Well Service TCW 02/26/2013 Testing critical channel-bottom support.

Bearish Trend

ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 05/14/2013 Downtrend intact.

Catamaran Corp. CCT 05/31/2013 08/12/2013 Breaking out to new highs. Y

CCL Industries Inc. CCL’B 07/10/2013 Bearish divergence between share price and MACD/RSI failing.

Chartwell Retirement Residences CSH.UN 06/07/2013 Failed to break through resistance at 50-day MA.

Dundee REIT D.UN 07/26/2013 Downtrend intact.

Enerflex Ltd. EFX 05/31/2013 08/12/2013 Breaking out to new highs. Y

Russel Metals Inc. RUS 06/18/2013 Downtrend intact.

Suncor Energy Inc. SU 04/23/2013 Testing trendline resistance.

* Indicates technical pattern has completed or trend direction has changed or is unclear.

Source: Raymond James Ltd.


Previously Highlighted Stocks

Company Ticker Date highlighted Date closed *

Bullish Trend

Aecon Group Inc. ARE 03/26/2013 05/31/2013

Alimentation Couche Tard Inc. ATD’B 02/12/2013 06/07/2013

Bombardier Inc. BBD’B 05/14/2013 06/07/2013

Bonterra Energy Corp. BNE 02/26/2013 07/10/2013

Brookfield Office Properties BPO 04/16/2013 06/07/2013

Crescent Point Energy CPG 01/23/2013 04/16/2013

Crombie REIT CRR.UN 04/16/2013 06/07/2013

Emera Inc. EMA 04/23/2013 07/10/2013

Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. FFH 03/26/2013 05/31/2013

Finning International Inc. FTT 01/11/2013 04/09/2013

Fortis Inc. FTS 04/09/2013 06/07/2013

Genivar Inc. GNV 01/23/2013 03/26/2013

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. MFI 03/05/2013 05/08/2013

Northern Property REIT NPR.UN 04/16/2013 06/07/2013

Pacific Rubiales Energy PRE 02/12/2013 03/19/2013

Pason Systems Inc. PSI 03/19/2013 07/10/2013

Precision Drilling Corp PD 02/12/2013 04/23/2013

Pretium Resources Inc. PVG 05/14/2013 06/07/2013

Teck Resources Ltd. TCK’B 01/11/2013 02/12/2013

Teck Resources Ltd. TCK’B 05/08/2013 07/10/2013

Thomson Reuters Corp. TRI 03/19/2013 05/31/2013

Uranium One Inc. UUU 01/11/2013 01/23/2013

Bearish Trend

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM 01/11/2013 02/26/2013

Argonaut Gold Inc. AR 02/26/2013 04/23/2013

Athabasca Oil Corp. ATH 03/26/2013 05/31/2013

Aurizon Mines Ltd. ARZ 05/08/2013 06/07/2013

Baytex Energy Corp. BTE 04/09/2013 05/08/2013

Boardwalk REIT BEI.UN 03/19/2013 07/10/2013

Canexus Corp. CUS 04/23/2013 05/08/2013

Dollarama Inc. DOL 01/23/2013 04/16/2013

Endeavour Silver Corp EDR 03/05/2013 04/23/2013

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. FM 03/05/2013 03/19/2013

Franco-Nevada Corp. FNV 04/09/2013 04/23/2013

Goldcorp Inc. G 04/16/2013 06/07/2013

Husky Energy Inc. HSE 03/19/2013 04/16/2013

Reitmans Canada Ltd. RET’A 02/26/2013 05/08/2013

Tourmaline Oil Corp TOU 01/11/2013 01/23/2013

WestJet Airlines Ltd. WJA 02/12/2013 03/05/2013

* Indicates technical pattern had completed or trend direction had changed or became unclear. Source: Raymond James Ltd.


Process and Methodology

Our stock universe will be restricted to S&P/TSX Composite members. Technical outlooks for various commodities may occasionally be included.

Breakouts or breakdowns from well-established uptrends or downtrends will be our focus. We will always look for confirmation of the expected move by examining either the RSI or the MACD, or both. Volume trends and moving averages may also be observed for momentum and trend confirmation.

Traditional technical chart patterns (head-and-shoulders tops and bottoms, ascending and descending triangles, etc.) will be highlighted when applicable.

Support and resistance levels will always be identified. A short- to medium-term timeframe is targeted for completion of technical patterns (3-6 months), but if the move is expected to take longer this will be identified also.

Candlestick pricing will always be used and candlestick patterns will be examined to confirm/indicate trends. Relative stock performance vs the S&P/TSX Composite will be examined to indicate the potential for stock outperformance of the

broader market. Highlighted stocks will be revisited to update investors on whether the expected technical move has succeeded or failed. In short,

these ideas will be consistently monitored.

Glossary

Ascending Triangle

A continuation pattern where the period of consolidation takes the shape of an upward sloping triangle with an ascending lower trendline. A break down through the support trendline can sometimes mark a reversal pattern.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger bands gauge a security’s trading activity and trend by showing a range of normal price swings.

Candlestick Chart

A graphical representation of prices where opening and closing prices are connected to form coloured boxes. Generally, a series of dark candlesticks suggest downside momentum and light candlesticks upside momentum.

Continuation Pattern

A chart formation that signals the continuation of the prevailing trend. Continuation patterns often occur after a period of brief consolidation.

Descending Triangle

A continuation pattern where the period of consolidation takes the shape of a downward sloping triangle with a declining upper resistance trendline. A break up through the resistance trendline can sometimes mark a reversal pattern.

Double Bottom

Chart formation that normally occurs after an extended downtrend and resembles a W. Double bottoms signal potential price reversals.

Double Top

Chart formation that normally occurs after an extended uptrend and resembles an M. Double tops signal potential price reversals.

Fibonacci Sequences

Mathematical relationships that help predict points of support or resistance. The key Fibonacci ratio is 61.8% also referred to as "the golden ratio" or "the golden mean".

Flag

A chart formation in which prices move sharply to create a near vertical line (the flag pole) followed by a small move in the opposite direction (the flag). Flags are often continuation patterns.


Gap

An open space on a chart. A gap is created when the low of one time period is above the high of the previous period, or the high of one time period is below the low of the previous period. Gaps can signal breakouts or continuations of up or down trends.

Head-and-Shoulders Formation

A reversal chart formation that looks like a head and shoulders (with both a defined left and right shoulder). Head-and-shoulders formations can occur at both the bottom and top of a trend.

MACD

The moving average convergence/divergence determines turning points in a trend by differencing two exponential moving averages of specific periods. The trendline of the MACD can also signal continuation or reversal trends for share prices.

Moving Average

A statistical tool that plots smoothed prices to signal future price trends. 50-day and 200-day moving averages are the most common indicators.

Resistance level

A technical level that prices may have trouble rising above (i.e., where the price may experience selling pressure).

Rounded Bottom

A bullish reversal pattern taking the shape of a U. Ideally, the rounded bottom should be accompanied by a similar volume pattern.

RSI

The relative strength index measures the velocity of directional price movements with extreme values indicating overbought and oversold conditions. The trendline of the RSI can also signal continuation or reversal trends for share prices.

Support Level

A technical level that prices may have trouble falling below (i.e., where the price should have buying support).

Trendline

A line connecting a series of ascending lows (in the case of an up trendline) or descending highs (in the case of a down trendline).


Appendix A

Important Investor Disclosures

A member of the PCS team responsible for preparation of this document or a member of his/her household has a long position in the securities of Enbridge Inc. (ENB‐T), Royal Bank of Canada (RY‐T), North West Co (NWC-T), Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T), Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T), Potash Corporation (POT-T), Sun Life Financial (SLF-T), Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T), Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T), Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK’B-T) and Fortis Inc. (FTS‐T).

Complete disclosures for companies covered by Raymond James can be viewed at: www.raymondjames.ca/researchdisclosures.

Raymond James Ltd. (RJL) Private Client Solution group prepared this newsletter. The views expressed are those of Private Client Solutions and may differ from fundamental research views. These opinions are based on historical technical data and the expectation of the most probable direction of a security or market. This outcome is not guaranteed. This newsletter does not constitute research coverage of any company and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Information is from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is for informational purposes only. It is not meant to provide legal or tax advice; as each situation is different, individuals should seek advice based on their circumstances. Nor is it an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. It is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where RJL is registered. This report is made widely available at the same time to all RJL Financial Advisers and is not posted to any publicly available website. RJL, its officers, directors, agents, employees and families may from time to time hold long or short positions in the securities mentioned herein and may engage in transactions contrary to the conclusions in this newsletter. RJL may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this newsletter. Securities offered through Raymond James Ltd., Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Financial planning and insurance offered through Raymond James Financial Planning Ltd., not a Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Clients can also access our research at Raymond James.ca, if you do not have an account, please contact your advisor.

RJL is a member of Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ©2012 Raymond James Ltd.

technically speaking total return 1 yr (%) 9 · technically speaking august 12, 2013 | page 2 of 9...

Documents