technical analysis · rally take place ahead of the oe’s interest rate decision tomorrow, when...
TRANSCRIPT
13/07/2016
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD
“Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 1.0911 could extend with another recovery.” – based on Action Forex
EUR/USD unchanged on Tuesday
Level Rationale
■ R3 1.1227/64 55 and 100-day SMA; weekly R2
■ R2 1.1128/57 Monthly PP; 20-day SMA; weekly R1
■ R1 1.1079/90 200-day SMA; weekly PP
■ S1 1.0972 Weekly S1
■ S2 1.0924 Bollinger Band
■ S3 1.0895/69 Weekly S2; monthly S1
Pair’s Outlook The Euro against the US Dollar pair was volatile during Tuesday’s
session, as midday it jumped above the resistance cluster made up of
weekly PP at 1.1079 and 200-day SMA at 1.1090. However, the pair
closed the day’s trading session at 1.1060, which is not far from where
it started it at 1.1056. On Wednesday morning the currency exchange
rate remains almost flat, as it has moved only three pips up, which is
from the opening rate of 1.1060 to 1.1064 by 5:00 GMT. If the pair
continues to move upwards, it is bound to test again the previously
mentioned resistance cluster.
Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment on Wednesday, as 53%
of open positions remain short. In the meantime, pending orders in the
100-pip range are 63% short.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -6% -6% -4%
-26% -34% -46% Orders
Indicator 1D 1W 1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell
ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
CCI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral
AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Neutral Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Buy
Aggregate ↘ → →
GBP/USD attempts to establish a fresh one-week high
Level Rationale
■ R3 1.3810/19 Weekly R3; monthly PP
■ R2 1.3576/1.3625 Weekly R2; 20-day SMA
■ R1 1.3267 Weekly R1
■ S1 1.3033 Weekly PP
■ S2 1.2724 Weekly S1
■ S3 1.2619 Monthly S1
Pair’s Outlook The Sterling almost fully erased previous week’s losses yesterday, but
the second resistance level, namely the weekly R1, limited the gains.
Today the weekly R1 acts as the immediate resistance, which could
reverse the bullish momentum, causing the British Pound to return to
the weekly PP at 1.3033, as technical indicators in the daily and the
weekly timeframes suggest. On the other hand, we could see another
rally take place ahead of the BoE’s interest rate decision tomorrow,
when the Cable is expected to weaken substantially. Further gains are
unlikely to exceed the 1.3430 area, despite the second nearest
resistance located around the 1.36 mark.
Traders’ Sentiment There are 60% of traders with a positive outlook towards the Cable
today, while the share of sell orders remains unchanged at 74%.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT
“The GBP remains under pressure and the currency lost 406 pips last week. Trading the GBP pairs is going to be 'relatively' easy. We wait for retracements and we go short with a preference for the GBP/USD and GBP/AUD.” - Forextell (based on PoundSterlingLive)
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 20% 28% 30%
-48% -48% -16% Orders
Indicator 1D 1W 1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell
RSI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell
ADX (14) Neutral Sell Neutral
CCI (14) Neutral Buy Buy
AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Buy
Aggregate ↘ ↘ →
USD/JPY makes a U-turn
Level Rationale
■ R3 108.78 100-day SMA
■ R2 105.94/106.65 Bollinger band; 55-day SMA; 38.20%
■ R1 105.07 Weekly R3
■ S1 104.36/103.94 Monthly PP; weekly R2
■ S2 103.10 20-day SMA
■ S3 102.26 Weekly R1
Pair’s Outlook The USD/JPY currency pair continued to appreciate on Tuesday, easily
piercing the second resistance area and even putting the third level to
the test. However, the Yen received a boost earlier today, with the
bearish trend regaining dominance. The pair is now likely to ignore the
nearest support cluster, represented by the monthly PP and the weekly
R2, and negate the most part of yesterday’s gains. Technical indicators
support this scenario, as the are now giving bearish signals in the daily
timeframe. The 20-day SMA around 103.10 is the level to limit the
losses, although a drop lower is not out of the question.
Traders’ Sentiment Today 63% of all open positions are long, compared to 68% of Tuesday.
Meanwhile. The portion of buy orders dropped again, namely from 61
to 44% over the past 24 hours.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT
“There has been some profit-taking by people who were yen-short, and that led the yen to rise today.” - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (based on Reuters)
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 26% 36% 50%
-12% 22% -36% Orders
Indicator 1D 1W 1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell
RSI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Neutral Neutral
ADX (14) Neutral Sell Sell
CCI (14) Sell Buy Buy
AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell
Aggregate ↘ → ↘
Gold suffers losses on Tuesday
Level Rationale
■ R3 1,382/84 Monthly and weekly R1s
■ R2 1,358.76 Weekly PP
■ R1 1,342.44 Weekly S1
■ S1 1,319/23 Weekly S2; 20-day SMA
■ S2 1,302.78 Weekly S3
■ S3 1,295.11 Monthly PP
Pair’s Outlook The yellow metal marked its second consecutive session of losses on
Tuesday, as it fell from 1,355.19 at the start of day’s trading to 1,331.66
at the end of Tuesday’s trading. In addition, this fall went right through
the support provided by the weekly S1 at 1,342.44. However, on
Wednesday morning, the bullion has surged a little bit on Wednesday
morning, as the metal started the session at 1,332.70, and it has slowly
moved towards 1,337.14 mark by 5:00 GMT. In addition, daily
aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the bullion for today.
Traders’ Sentiment Traders have decreased their bearish sentiment on Wednesday, as 59%
of SWFX traders are short on the yellow metal, compared to 65% on
Tuesday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 71%
long.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT
“Theresa May was chosen the new Conservative Party leader on Monday. She will become Prime Minister on Wednesday evening. The lack of a prolonged period of transition in the UK’s is negative for the gold market.” – Sunshine Profits (based on investing.com)
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -18% -30% -32%
42% 24% 30% Orders
Indicator 1D 1W 1MN
MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Sell Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell
ADX (14) Buy Neutral Neutral
CCI (14) Neutral Sell Sell
AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Buy Buy
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Buy
Aggregate ↗ → ↗
Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the
projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Disclaimer Everything in this article, including opinions and figures, is provided for informational purposes only and may not be interpreted as financial advice or solicitation of products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this article. Financial figures indicated in this article have not been verified by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the article, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy group. Dukascopy group waive any and all warranties, express or implied, regarding, but without limitation to, warranties of the merchantability or the fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to all information in this article. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequential, contingent or any other damages sustained in connection with the use of this article.
Newest releases and archive: Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Press Review Market Research Expert Commentary Dukascopy Sentiment Index Trade Pattern Ideas Global Stock Market Review Commodity Overview Economic Research Quarterly Report Aggregate Technical Indicator Additional information: Dukascopy Group Home Page Market News & Research FXSpider Live Webinars Dukascopy TV Daily Pivot Point Levels Economic Calendar Daily Highs/Lows SWFX Sentiment Index Movers & Shakers FX Forex Calculators Currency Converter Currency Index CoT Charts Social networks:
Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Press Review Market Research
Expert Commentary Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Trade Pattern Ideas Global Stock Market Review
Commodity Overview Economic Research Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]