tech trajectories robertson 2010

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From societal fragility to sustainable robustness: Some tentative

technology trajectories

Lindsay J. Robertson*

Professional Engineer (Mechanical), New Zealand

Keywords:

Technology

Robust

Fragile

Dependence

Supply-chain

Capability

Vulnerability

Roadmap

Society

Collapse

a b s t r a c t

Centralization of production has allowed great increases to efciency, and specialization

has allowed advances that would otherwise be almost impossible. But centralized

production leads to long supply lines, and specialization causes decreased accessibility of

alternatives; together these increase the consumersvulnerability to disruption of access to

essential goods and services. Assessing these vulnerabilities and making at least prelimi-

nary proposals for amelioration, is a topic of this paper. Initially, the functional needs of

individuals are reviewed and classied. The paper then reviews and attempts to quantify

the vulnerabilities associated with present approaches to meeting those needs. Having

identied both specic vulnerabilities, and common factors associated with vulnerability,

the paper then considers some general principles for increasing technological and social

robustness. With vulnerabilities and indicative principles for improved robustness iden-

tied, some coarse but illustrative technology trajectories are proposed.

The paper covers a broad scope in limited detail: it is presented in the hope that real

advance towards a more robust and decentralized sophistication can be encouraged. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

1.1. Vulnerability described

1.1.1. General

There is an old adage that any city is three meals away

from anarchy. Some slight exaggeration may be detected,

but the plight of an urban apartment dweller is certainly

severe when suddenly deprived of cash-dispenser, super-market, running water, sewage systems, power and

communications.

1.1.2. Centralization and specialization are associated with

vulnerability

A neighboring rural town expects a major earthquake in

the foreseeable future. Ata public meeting to review disaster

preparations, residents initially expressed condence in

their communications security noting that Internet,

landline, and cellular phones were available. Residentswere

less condent when told that the communications for every

one of these, plus the point-of-sale terminals and the

Automatic Teller Machines were ALL carried via a single

ber-opticcable. They might also havenotedthat almostthe

entire communications volume depended upon one oper-

ating system, one brand of router, TCP/IP protocols only,

a single DNS system, and one of only two undersea cablesconnecting to the rest of the world. [1]. Predictions of the

collapse of nancial systems were made before the new

millennium, but the events starting with the American

mortgage issues in 2007 have reminded us of how central-

ized, interconnected and ubiquitous our nancial systems

are. Financial products designed (badly) in USA cause

business failures in Dunedin, and individualbankruptcies in

Cape Town. Citizens with few options for storing their

savings deposited them with reputable nancial institu-

tions only to nd that their savings had vanished! Our

centralized systems for distributing goods is dependent on* Tel.: 64 21 240 6863.

E-mail address: [email protected].

Contents lists available atScienceDirect

Technology in Society

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / t e c h s o c

0160-791X/$

see front matter

2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012

Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0160791Xhttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/techsochttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012http://www.elsevier.com/locate/techsochttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0160791Xmailto:[email protected]


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transportfuel yet most countrieshavefew if any sources of

crude oil, few ports capable of ofoading tankers, perhaps

only a single renery, storage of less than 90 days, and long

fuel distribution chains[2]. The very high market share of

one computer operating system and software bundle has

allowed relatively simple exchangeability of documents in

theshort-term,but causesusers to be locked in to facilities

that will inevitably be deemed obsolete: This creates

a signicant risk that information will be lost in the medium

term as these proprietary systems cease to be supported.

Electricity is the most ubiquitous energy carrier for

stationary applications; Centralized power generation has

minimized costs but at the expense of long distribution

paths, and power grids that require progressively more

stringent measures to remain stable.

We can remember that whenever a monoculture

thrives, there is increased risk of an explosion of those

who prey on it: The increased efciencies of production

that have allowed Homo sapiens to increase, have also

resulted in our increased dependence on a progressively

optimized but less diverse food sources, e.g. Rice, wheat,

corn, potato, sheep and cattle. We have already seen

evidence of threats (the Ug99 strain of the killer wheat

fungus, potato blight), and know of the potential for yet-to-

emerge insect, bacterial and viral threats. This principle is

not limited to our food sources: H. sapiens is one of the

largest monocultures, and direct threats to our species

include old diseases e.g. smallpox, plus emergent diseases

e.g., a mutated H5N1 inuenza virus and potentially

many other natural and unnatural pathogens.

1.1.3. Vulnerability widely recognized

Societal vulnerabilities are recognized quite widely

academic writers [3,4] have explored particular aspects,

novelists have based apocalyptic works upon them, and one

suspects that think-tanks have produced, but never pub-

lished, analyses of national vulnerabilities. It is also reason-

able to suggest that the rise of survivalist cults, back to

nature and self-sufciency movements, are each reec-

tions of a poorly-articulated awareness of societal fragility.

1.1.4. Vulnerability through lack of responsiveness

The centralized creation of consumables, and their

distribution, are generally only efcient when broad-

reaching polities of law and commerce were also stable:

That stability has almost intrinsically reduced the speed

of adaptation. A topical example may be seen in the

greenhouse gas reduction negotiations: Our production

systems promote global warming yet precisely because of

the lack of adaptability of these centralized systems,

proposals to reduce greenhouse gases become mired in

a morass of competing interests and arguments.

1.1.5. Social effects

The focus of this paper is on technical issues of societal

fragility caused by centralization, specialization and inter-

connectedness of supply chains: There are also, however,

important sociological issues that arise from the same

phenomena: Simplistic economic theory proposes that

competition will control the abuse of market power but

centralization and specialization are inherently trends

towards decreased real competition and one can readily

observe examples where centralized and specialized

services experience little real competition. Whenever

consumers are highly dependent on the availability of

particular goods and services, the suppliers acquire

considerable power to dictate prices, terms and conditions.

The tendency for large monocultures to encourage natural

predators has been mentioned already, and large concen-

trations of people and centralized infrastructure certainly

offer juicy targetsfor those intent on destruction. Tainter

[5] argued that the societies collapse when the costs

of maintaining the society exceed the marginal benets

to citizens: he envisioned that cost would be counted

in terms of taxation and bureaucratic overhead; but

distasteful invasions of privacy, constraints on freedom and

burdensome legislation to control the predatorsare also

signicant costs.

1.1.6. Gains and costs

It would, however, be naive to ignore the societal

advances that have been made possible by optimized,

specialized, and centralized capabilities: Life expectancy

has improved with better food production[6]; healthcare

has improved, infant mortality has decreased, and our

lives have been enriched by access to knowledge, culture

and communication. Few would willingly sacrice these,

despite a wish for greater robustness. Technical advances

have also included the development of acceptable

methods of restraining population growth (thus avoiding

Malthus predictions [7]) and possible methods of

reducing further environmental damage: these should not

be under-valued.

1.2. Dening an issue

Stated simply, while centralization and specialization

have allowed goods and services to be produced with

unprecedented efciency, the precise corollary has been

vulnerability to disruption of the central creation and

distribution facilities, and to the facilities for the re-

centralization of wealth. The best of both worlds is

a theme of this paper.

1.3. Lessons from history

Tainter, Diamond[8] et al. do not speak of the failure

of individuals to survive, or the failure of species to

survive. Both of these authors analyze historical exam-

ples of the Collapse of SOCIETY, i.e., the process

by which individuals existence changes from that of

a specialized contributor within an interconnected and

specialized societal structure, to a self-dependent exis-

tence at some lower state of sophistication. Tainter has

asserted that societies become prone to collapse when

the incremental costs of maintenance outweigh the

benets to the individual. Diamond basically asserts that

societies collapse when natural resources are mis-

managed. These authors do essay denitions of society

and to a lesser degree denitions of collapse but the

lack of granularity in the terminology masks important

issues.

L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351 343


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1.4. Dene the goal

When authors describe a more-or-less-signicant event

triggering a collapse of society, they articulate an example

of what chaos-theorists identify as a move from one

attractorto another[9].

Both Tainter and Diamond imply that two attractors

represent the only stable states for society; i.e., a highly

centralized, hierarchically-controlled nation/state, and

a primitive state in which small groups exist at a survival/

subsistence level.

One could posit many societal states(nomadic groups

with clan bonds, or ideologically homogenous groups),

and examples of some exist (Roma) but most such

struggle to survive, and remain vulnerable. This paper

proposes that there could be a stable form of society that

is decentralized, robust, and advancedor sophisticated

and that sometime considerably before collapseit will

become equally desirable to choose such a decentralized

existence with minimal loss of utility. The general tech-

nical underpinnings of such a robust and decentralized

sophistication, are the theme for this paper. The charac-

teristics of such a decentralized society would probably

include;

a) Socially-optimum sized groups existing with high

levels of independence

b) Groups capable of meeting sophisticated needs from

internal resources

c) Groups able to generate further advance, by forming ad-

hoc task-oriented groupings (without creating the

vulnerabilities of permanent hierarchical structures)

1.4.1. Technical goal

Building on a proposed classication of the needs and

vulnerabilities of society, a process of functional specica-

tion can suggest the generic technological capabilities that

would contribute most to the decrease of present vulner-

abilities while continuing to meet functional needs.

1.4.2. Non-technical goals

Dunbars[10]number (about 150) is frequently quoted

as the sociologically ideal community size. The disparity

between this number and the size of present city-states

makes it hardly surprising that sociological problems as

well as the technical vulnerabilities are seen. Should it

become technically possible to adequately meet advanced

needs, within smaller people-groupings, then a social as

well as a material advance is possible.

2. Methods

2.1. Codication and ranking of needs

If personal/societal needs are dened strictly within

the current norms, then an assessment of vulnerabilities is

likely to be supercial, and only a very constrained set of

alternatives is likely to present. If, however, needscan be

dened in rather more functional terms, then it is more

likely that vulnerabilities can be identied and quantied,

and it is also more likely that alternative solutions can be

identied. A functional denition of needs will also allow

us to assess the value of alternative approaches to meeting

real needs.

2.2. Indices of vulnerability

As with terms like collapse, vulnerability is an

imprecise term: By dening a Vulnerability Index (VI) and

evaluating it for current approaches to fulllment of

various needs, it will be possible both to rank the signi-

cance of various vulnerabilities and to determine, at least to

a low level of precision, whether a proposed change

decreases or increases vulnerability. Even if the numerical

values of such a Vulnerability Index have very low

precision, they will be useful if the index is dimensionless

and if the algebraic relationship of the components is

basically correct.

2.3. Principles of robustness

Having established an index by which specic vulner-

abilities can be assessed, this paper will use the format and

the components of that index to suggest principles for

improving robustness.

2.4. Technology trajectories

When needs have been dened functionally, and the

components of current vulnerabilities have been described,

then technological solution-spaces for improved robust-

ness can be considered. Each functional specication for

a technological capability can then be characterized

according to its present developmental status, and its

developmental requirements. Collectively, these assess-

ments outline a trajectory or path (but not a roadmap),

towards improved robustness.

3. Results

3.1. Establish a hierarchy of needs

Vulnerability is a very imprecise term: and begs

questions of what is at risk, and what is the signicance

of the potential deprival? To codify and quantify human

and societal vulnerability, it is useful rst to list, then to

categorize and rank, our individual and societal needs. The

listing will help to dene what is at risk, and the catego-

rization will help to assess the signicance of the at risk

items. A commonly-referenced hierarchy of human needs is

that proposed by Maslow [11]. Briey, the need-levels

identied by Maslow are 1) Physiological (homeostasis).

2) Safety (personal, nancial etc predictability and secu-

rity).3) Loveand belonging (friendship, intimacy, family). 4)

Esteem/belongingness (of peers). 5) Need to know and

understand (curiosity, exploration). 6) Aesthetic needs

(beauty). 7) Self-actualization (to reach ones potential) and

8) Transcendence (aspiration to that beyond oneself).

Maslows list has a curious granularity: Maslow s rst

need is very broad, and must be subdivided for the

purposes of this paper. Maslow gave the title of safety

to his second need; the description suggests that titles

L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351344


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such as predictabilityor orderlinessmight have been

better, and would certainly have avoided confusion with

the concept of protection from personal danger. Safety,

in the sense of avoidance of personal danger is clearly

a need that takes precedence over the need for food,

water and shelter a person will survive many days

without the latter, but danger must be avoided immedi-

ately. Items 3 to 8 of Maslows list are personal (though

their realization has technological implications), and

represent quitene subdivisions. Nevertheless, Maslows

hierarchy can be adapted to develop a list of personal/

societal needs that can then be grouped into categories

which are somewhat more technologically oriented.

Table 1 shows the proposed adaptation, listing both

functional needs and groupings that represent broadly

dened levels of societal sophistication.

3.2. Analysis of vulnerability

3.2.1. Types and signicance of vulnerabilities

Two particular types of vulnerability can bedistinguished:

a) Cascading failures caused by sensitive dependence on

initial conditions. ..For the lack of a nail the horse was

lost, for lack of a horse the battle was lost.., or .one

ap of a seagulls wings could change the course of

weather forever.. Some vulnerabilities do arise from

single causes: the introduction of cane-toads to

Australia, the possibility of an oil-renery explosion on

an island state dependent on only one such facility, or

the publication of a simple crack to the encryption

system used for all internet banking transactions. Chaos

theory uses the terminology extreme sensitivity to

initial conditionsto describe this category.

b) Multi-level, common-mode failures. This type of vulner-

ability arises where a highly interconnected network/

system of nodes (all having different functions) each

depend on a common resource (perhaps energy, or

personnel). In such a system, if the common resource is

affected (e.g., plague strikes personnel at all levels of

distribution chain), the whole system may collapse.

High vulnerability levels can be expected to be linked to

capabilities that affect ALL levels of multi-stage creation

Table 1

A hierarchy of needs.

Title, and closest

correspondence to

Maslows need-level

Description of need Timeframe to

consequences,

if need unmet

Components of need

Safety Avoid immediate death

or permanent injury

Secondsdays Capacity to survive major accident or

natural disaster

Protection from accidental or purposeful injury

Physiological

(Maslow-1)

Physiological needs

for continuation of life

Daysmonths Water

Nutrition

Shelter

Waste disposalTransport fuel

Generational continuity

(Maslow-2 & 3)

Generational continuity of life

Familial cohesion and stability

Basic information storage

Basic communication

Monthsyears Maintain ability to provide for physiological needs

Ability to safely bear and raise children

Develop and apply basic healthcare

Financial services

Record and access basic information

Communicate basic information to others

Communal

(Maslow 4,5&6)

Avoid collective health failures Years Avoidance or diseases (plagues) that would

severe limit life or capability

Important information and

capabilities must be retained

across generations.

Diagnosis of medical conditions (applied

to people, and also to essential animal

and plant crops)

Long-term maintenance of

community facilities

Information must be retained (i.e., recorded)

in a means that can be found, analyzed,

and communicated to others, across generations.

Need to acquire basic materials to support

individual needs and infrastructure/equipment repair

Capacity for repair of basic equipment.

Developmental

(Maslow-7,8)

To know, to understand,

and explore;

Years to few-decades Capacity to measure, sense and explore the

extra-communal world and to

acquire/manufacture the sensors

To nd self-fulllment, to

realize ones potential;

Capability to form structured and functional

(ad-hoc) collaborations.

Capability to marshal (physical and intellectual)

resources to allow goals that are beyond the

resources of the individual sociological grouping.



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and delivery systems e.g., personal (collective health,

food, air, water, security) needs and productivity needs

(nance, energy). Other needs such as raw materials,

knowledge, and enabling-equipment are commonly

specic to particular steps.

3.2.2. A metric for vulnerability

It has already been noted that vulnerability is

a loosely-dened term, and qualiers such as highly

contribute little additional precision. A Vulnerability

Index offers one approach to quantication, and

contributes to more precise denition both by the alge-

braic terms and the algebraic construction used. If the

algebraic form of a Vulnerability Index encourages a wide

numerical spread when evaluated, and if the form gener-

ates a dimensionless evaluation, then the index is more

likely to be useful.

The following denition is proposed for a signed

Vulnerability index(VI):

VINeed SF Ta Td=Tc

Where: SF is the scale factor, the number of persons

affected by the failure of a single means for supplying

a current need; Ta is the time for consumer to access

a functional alternative;Tdis the time-to-depletion for the

accessible reserve, OR the Mean Time Before Failure

(MTBF) of local capacity;Tcis the time from complete loss

of functionality, to dened consequence.

3.2.2.1. VI terms and parameters. For an adequate result, the

need parameter should be dened functionally; other-

wise the assessment of the time required to source an

alternative will not identify a useful value. The terms in the

proposed VI are certainly not precise and further work isplanned to clarify them, however for the purposes of this

paper, the terms are described as follows:

3.2.2.2. Scale factor. This is a crude metric of the scale of the

deprivation caused by a single event and hence it is also

a crude measure of the degree of centralization of the

service that is at risk.

3.2.2.3. Access to functional alternatives. If a functionally

equivalent, alternative and independent means of

supplying a specic need is accessible, the effect will be to

decrease the VI. The VI as proposed takes no account of the

degree to which the need is met; hence access to a sloweror poorer-quality alternative (a graceful retreatpath) still

allows the signed index to decrease.

3.2.2.4. Reserve depletion time, or MTBF. Where a natural

resource becomes exhausted, the time tond alternative is

very large: for such cases the index will become high

(aligning with Diamonds conclusions). For needs that

involve an effectively inexhaustible resource, then the VI is

low. If the need is a service that is dependent on some

technological component, then increased MTBF lowers the

VI. In a case where a resource is consumable and has negli-

gible storage potential (e.g. mains electricity or the contents

of a cars petrol tank), then the VI will generally be large.

3.2.2.5. Time-to-consequence. If the time to signicant

consequence is small, a large VI is evaluated.

3.2.3. Description of functional needs, and current vulnerabilities

With functional denitions of needs (categorized into

hierarchical levels) and at least a crude metric for vulnera-

bility, it is now possible to review the current methods by

which these needs aremet, andthe associated vulnerabilities.

3.2.3.1. Safety. The currentsolution toavoidingdeathdueto

accident or assault emphasizes risk avoidance or risk deter-

rence. Should these approaches fail, the time elapsing before

serious consequences is very short (seconds or minutes). A

highlycentralizedsociety is unable to provide a responseto an

individual safety need (injury/assault) in a timeframe less

than a large fraction of an hour: The vulnerability for an

individual is high, butthe societal VI is only moderatebecause

the numbers affected by an event are generally small.

3.2.3.2. Physiological survival. Physiological needs are

commonly met by consumer use of centralized nancialservices, (and electronic communications) to purchase

goods that have been manufactured at a distance (in

serviced and maintained centralized facilities) and

distributed to retail centres. This approach creates a curi-

ously bi-modal VI; The time-to-consequence from fail-

ures to supply this needis of the order of a few days, and

over that time period storage of food and water is quite

feasible implying a low VI. However, if a major supply

failure occurred, many months would be required to

establish a genuine alternative, and hence a high VI is

evaluated for that timeframe.

Consumer nancial services present a very high

vulnerability because consumers store very small amountsof wealth, consumer-level failure of centralized nancial

systems affect large numbers, and there are no accessible

alternatives. Housing materials are durable and many

alternatives exist so these do not contribute large vulner-

ability except in short-term, localized cases such (e.g., in the

aftermath of an earthquake). City-scale sewage systems are

common but functional alternatives could be arranged in

a short timeframe, so the VI is low. Food distribution is

dependent on transport fuel, equipment and infrastructure

and transport fuel has a high VI due to lack of alternatives

and limited storage capability. Vulnerability to loss of

electrical energy for cooking is moderately low because

alternatives are accessible. (Gas bottles in short-term,biomass in longer term). We can therefore assign a low VI

to physiological needs for the short-term, and a high VI for

the longer term.

3.2.3.3. Generational. To have a high probability of species/

generational/genetic survival, needs in addition to the

physiological needs of individuals become signicant: A

minimum breadth of gene-pool is needed, and children

must not only be raised to the age of self-sufciency, but

equipped with the minimum skills and knowledge to

survive and raise their own children. Basic healthcare is

essential to meeting this need and healthcare follows

a very strong law of diminishing returns against effort.



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Nutrition, basic hygiene, sewage treatment and the avoid-

ance of waterborne and food-borne disease are by far the

largest contributors to societal health. Recognition of this

principle has, for example, allowed Cuba to achieve health

indicators better than many wealthier countries. At this

need-level, basic information-recording is required but

only at the level which can be provided by oral history and

local information sources.

3.2.3.4. Communal. Once the needs for generational/

genetic survival are provided, it is possible for communi-

ties, in the commonly accepted denitions of the term, to

develop. Stable communitieshave needs beyond those of

extended and multi-generational families: Societal health

needs are presently met by centralized heath services for

people, and also for essential animal and plant crops. The

diagnosis and treatment of disease (i.e., where disease

prevention has failed) has a particularly high VI, since the

facilities that actually make original diagnoses, and that

discover and/or design the active ingredients of drugs, are

highly centralized. While stockpiling of limited ranges of

medicines is possible in the short-term, this is not viable for

the longer term, and by denition stockpiling cannot work

for newly emerging conditions. The VI associated with

health failure due to disease, is increased by the very large

numbers that are potentially affected. Perhaps counter-

intuitively, many medical procedures do not have a high

VI. Procedures such as surgical removal of an appendix

have been carried out by untrained persons under remote

instruction and presumably this principle could be

extended in case of sufciently urgent need. Communica-

tion and information needs (for example, weather reports

for shermen, drought predictions for farming, and accu-

mulated wisdom for health workers) also become highly

signicant in this timeframe. Present approaches to

communication are sophisticated yet have high V.I0s

because the time to access any functional alternative is

long, there are few graceful retreat paths, and large

numbers of people are affected within a short time (e.g.

whole countriesinternet access affected by poisoned DNS

servers). There are few functional alternatives to present

information storage systems (hard disk storage), due to lack

of standardization and lack of graceful retreat paths

however the time-to-depletion (MTBF) is comparatively

long. Most current communication and information storage

facilities require low-voltage DC electricity which pres-

ents a moderate vulnerability at present due to the number

of people affected by reticulated power failures, lack of

long-term storage technologies, and the low uptake of

accessible alternatives. Equipment and facility mainte-

nance needs (e.g. for food production) become signicant

in the timeframe associated with this need-level, and show

vulnerability associated with the lack of capacity for

replacement/refurbishment of components and infra-

structure. The capacity to measure, sense and explore the

external world (in its most general sense) has a low VI:

Most of the requisite technology is durable and much

equipment capable of supporting cognition can be created

under a decentralized model (home-made microscopes

and telescopes), hence the time to access alternatives is not

high compared to the MTBF.

3.2.3.5. Developmental/extension. Our developmentalneed

is currently (partially) met by our capability to marshal

physical and intellectual resources from a wide range of

sources, and to funnelor concentratethese to a point of

application, thus allowing goals that are beyond the resources

of the individual or small group. Present approaches to meet

the need for development or extension have a high VI due to:

a) The high VI of present nancial systems, and

b) Our monarchical and hierarchical polity, whereby we

depend on centralized systems of (commercial/contractual

and criminal) law and associated enforcement capabilities.

Without an underlying contractual or legal framework, the

processof concentratingand dispersedresources is difcult.

c) Dependence on vulnerable information storage and

transmission modes.

3.2.4. Evaluation of Vulnerability IndicesThe terms in the VI are not simple to evaluate, and

different assumptions will produce ranges of values.

Nevertheless by assigning Hto VIs over a million, Lto

values below one thousand and Mto others, distinctions

are stable across a range of assumptions.

The (coarse) VI evaluations, associated with the each

functional need are listed inTable 2.

3.2.5. Notes on VI evaluations

Some general observations on the VI evaluations

include:

a) Specialized GOODS generally do not have high VIvalues, since their MTBF is long compared to the time-

to-source-alternatives. To quote but one example, the

microprocessors in the Voyager spacecraft have func-

tioned for 30 years in a harsh environment this

timeframe is long compared to the construction time

for an RCA 1802 fabrication plant. Specialized goods

only cause high VIs when there is a low level of stan-

dardization, and no graceful retreat capability.

b) Long supply chains for services and consumables cause

the highest VI values because the depletion time for

consumer reserves is short compared to time required

to access alternatives.

c) Multi-level common factors (personal health, energy,information, and communications) cause high VIs.

d) The process of de-centralizing (distributing) goods and

services has a mirror image the process of accumu-

lating and re-centralizing nance. Centralized nancial

systems have a very high VI.

3.3. Principles for robustness

Reviewing the effects of each term in the VI, shows that

robustness may be increased, and vulnerability decreased,

by any of the following approaches:

a) Partitioning the risk, to reduce scaling factors.



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Table 2

Technology specication and assessment.

Functional specication of

capability, to meet need

VI Illustrative technologies, capable

of meeting functional specications

Tech. Status

Safety

Immediately available means

of surviving natural disasters,

and preventing injury due to assault

M Many available 8

Physiological

Collect and sterilize water within a days M Various water treatment technologies 7

Hygienically deal with sewage, after a few days M Several, including composting toilet 7

Continuous production of nutritionally adequate food locally,

on small-scale, within a few days.

H Algaculture, others 3

Capability to retain body warmth, within hours L Many available 8

Capability to make/obtain shelter within days L Many available 8

Means by which individual can securely hold personal wealth,

and transparently carry out transactions, without centralized

banking services

H No technology meets this requirement at present 3

Access usable energy (cooking and heating) within days/weeks.

Functionally this implies technology for energy storage

and concentration.

M Biomass energy is simple, but is not versatile,

and has long access times.

8

Energy for currently available ICEs H Macro-algae oil, H2 on demand 3

Generational continuity & community

Avoidance of widespread death from

quick-onset disease (pandemic)

H Risk partitioning 7?

Diagnose human,

food-animal & crop illness

H Lab-on-chip 4

Create treatments for human, food-animal & crop illness H General-purpose chemical synthesis. 3

Enable competent but untrained local practitioner

to carry out simple procedures (childbirth,

broken-bone setting??)

M Durable, robust information storage 6

General-purpose manufacturing capability (probably

for limited number of materials)

M General-purpose manufacturing 5

Local capability for creating (limited range of)

metals, plastics

L General-purpose materials creation 5

Local capacity (skills, equipment, materials) to maintain

basic infrastructure (pipes, roads), perhaps with

reduced functionality

M Many available 7

Fully developed ad-hoc, peer-to-peer communication system. H Robustcommunications 5

DC power for communications, information H Seebeck effect, solar PV etc 7

Long-term high-density storage media H Durable, robustinformation storage 6

Graceful retreat alternatives to exiting information

storage systems

M See above 4

Creation/maintenance of basic sensor (telescope, microscope,

barometer, clock)

L Knowledge of manufacture requirements,

general-purpose manufacturing

7

Long-term high-density storage media 4

Local capacity to create transport fuel, maintain basic

infrastructure

H Macro-algae oil 3

Developmental

Need is for a scalable politythat would allow ad-hoc groups

to assemble for a purpose, to marshal resources for a goal,

regulate their activities in a pre-agreed manner, and then

to disband amicably.

M Robust and scalable polity 3

Ad-hoc,peer-to-peer communication system. M (See above communication) 5



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b) Raising the accessibility of alternatives. Where a product

has many processing steps and each has a proprietary

intermediate product, access to alternative suppliers at

intermediate production points is denied. Conversely,

when all of the intermediate processing steps have well-

standardized and openly-specied intermediate prod-

ucts, alternatives are possible at each intermediate stage.

The most important approach to improving the accessi-

bility ofalternativesis by promoting standardization of

intermediate products. This concept could be rened

mathematically, however a descriptive approach is

sufcient for this paper.

c) Bringing production of services and consumables

(which have small or no storage capability) close to the

point of consumption, and bringing storage capacity for

those goods/consumables as close as possible to the

point of need. In practice this means both selecting

technologies that make local storage possible, and

applying effort to developing alternative technologies

for cases where signicant storage is presently not

practical.

d) Enabling scalable, ad-hoc networks and association

models, and avoiding rigid dendritic service models.

This is an issue that is related as much to sociology as to

technology, yet is a key to the development of a less-

centralized society.

Modifying the value of factors of a VI will reduce the VI,

but this may actually have limited signicance if the VI is

low initially! Since the VI of a complete need-level (see

Section3.1) corresponds to the highest VI for each of the

needs in that level, it is clear that rate-of-progress towards

robustness will be improved if the highest-evaluated VI s

for each need-level are addressed rst.

3.4. Technology trajectories

Ambitious goals are normally achieved by carefully

dening outcomes, then systematically addressing

components. In this case, goals are only loosely dened and

it is enough to suggest some initial trajectories rather

than propose a roadmap.

3.4.1. Technology characteristics linked to robustness

Having dened societal needs functionally, and

described both current vulnerabilities and general

approaches to increasing robustness, it is now possible to

consider some examples that illustrate how functional

qualities (specications) of a technology improve supply

robustness for the user.Table 2provides some illustrative

examples It is likely that time and experience will suggest

alternatives and improvements, but the illustrations may

be useful.

Technologies that would increase self-reliance and

promote individual survivability exist, but are commonly

restricted by problematic security concerns; similarly,

defensive technologies are readily available, and objections

tend to be based on emotive and political arguments rather

than statistics [12]. Algaculture is an example of a tech-

nology that addresses specic vulnerabilities (long supply

chains and long production lead-times) associated with

current approaches to both food and liquid fuel supply [13]

Oil-rich algae strains are already under development, but

food strain development has far to go. Other illustrative

qualities of this technology include its relatively simple

technology needs, scalability, exibility and the very short

(days) grow/harvest cycle. Another exemplar (illustrating

durability, simplicity and scalability) energy source is the

H2on demandapproach, in which water is metered onto

a reactive metal (Li, Ca, etc) [14] to release hydrogen. A

sustainable cycle is achieved by chemical reduction of the

metal oxide. At present there is no robust means by which

individuals can securely hold personal wealth and trans-

parently carry out transactions, without centralized

banking services: this is a major vulnerability for which

technological solutions are not presently available. Small-

scale, semi-automated chromatography and diagnostic

capabilities such as the lab on a chip technologies[15]

already illustrate the general feasibility of decentralized

and general-purpose analysis/diagnostic capabilities.

General-purpose and semi-automated synthesis facilities

for bio-actives (pharmaceutical or avoring) have also been

described: by using automated sequencing of basic chem-

ical unit-operations[16].Ranges of synthesis are possible,

and illustrate the realistic possibility of a decentralized and

highly exible synthesis capability.

At a larger scale, small and general-purpose

manufacturing facilities (Micro factories [17]) have been

proposed and general-purpose machining facilities using

either abrasion or Electro-discharge Machining [18]

already exist. These examples, plus concepts such as

Rapid Prototyping, micro-foundries, and solar pyro-

metallurgy [19], illustrate the realistic possibility of

decentralized and exible fabrication. Durable information

storage, in the form of rock carving, has existed for

millennia, but approaches such as that proposed by the

Rosetta project [20] illustrate the practicality of dense,

large-scale and durable information storage for true

robustness a corresponding means ofstoringinformation is

required, as is a means of reading such information back

into data processing equipment. The components for

robust, decentralized communication systems are available

now, and some approaches[21]can be illustrated. A robust

and fully decentralized communication system seems

a realistic goal. Some general principles for the develop-

ment of a decentralized and scalable polity exist (e.g.. codes

of human rights, rules for arbitration, and templates for

contracts), but there are huge obstacles to implementation.

3.4.2. Technology development priorities

Table 2 links an assessment of vulnerability to the

current status of technology options for each need-level.

The table lacks detail and offers illustrative examples only,

but the correlation is presented in the hope of illustrating

priorities for technology development. Technology status is

characterized as:

1. Scientic principles unknown (e.g. anti-gravity)

2. Scientic principles known

3. Technology required to create components is known



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4. Proof-of-concept examples exist

5. Components have been created at laboratory-scale

6. Laboratory demonstrations of assembled components

have been made

7. Prototype available

8. Consumer-usable examples exist, with infrastructure for

repair and modication

4. Discussion and conclusion

4.1. Risks and predictions

Risk is commonly associated with probability, but

when the timeframe is sufciently long the outworking of

a vulnerability is very likely to occur sometime and

so this paper has taken a different approach to that of

Taleb [22] and Posner [23]. A detailed risk analysis may

certainly rene the admittedly coarse assessments pre-

sented here.

4.2. Feasibility and desirability

The exercise of indicating technology directions

(trajectories), has shown that for many capabilities that

would increase robustness, technological solutions are

either in existence or are foreseeable. Other capabilities

such as short lead-time food production, are foreseeable,

but are not close to being available. For other cases, high

vulnerability and lack of technologically mature solu-

tions suggests both a trajectory, and a long path to the

target!

4.2.1. Counter-intuitive conclusions

While some technologies (integrated circuit manufac-

ture) are only feasible at highly specialized facilities, such

technologies are generally capable of multi-decade dura-

bility so it seems reasonable to suggest that these could

be re-created using ad-hoc associations, without creating

vulnerabilities.

Transport is inextricably linked to centralization so as

production is decentralized the vulnerability associated

with transport (and fuel etc issues) decreases.

4.3. Drivers and moderators

That societies have historically collapsed is beyond

doubt and all who have studied such collapses have asked

could our society collapse? It seems presumptuous to

assume that todays society has evolved past the point

where collapse is possible.

Some unpalatable possibilities include:

a) A reversion to anarchic groups living at the Personal- or

Generational-survival level,

b) The vulnerability arising from un-restrained centrali-

zation and specialization of production

c) The multitude of constraints that are commonly

considered necessary to avoid the consequences of

vulnerability.

These are thedrivers for change: the moderator is the

observation that centralized and specialized production

offershighefciencyand lowcost andhas not collapsed yet!

4.4. Technology directions (trajectories) towards robustness

Since many aspects of society currently involve central-ized sources of supply, a change from centralized to distrib-

uted society requires not one, but many changes. For any

change to occur, the technical opportunity for change must

exist, barriers must be removed, and a trigger is usually also

needed. This paper makes an initial attempt to correlate

present vulnerabilities with the status of corresponding

technical capabilities: together these suggest technology

trajectories that have reasonable potential. Amongst the

high priority needs identied, there are those for which:

a) Technical solutions are actually available, but there has

not been a sufcient trigger for change

b) Technical solutions are not available, but could practi-cally become available with signicant effort: an ad-hoc

centralization of effort, solely to develop a long-life

technology, incurs very little long-term vulnerability

c) Technical solutions seem possible in principle, but

would face intransigent barriers: examples would

include the need for a scalable polity and a decentral-

ized capability to securely hold personal wealth.

4.5. Stepping stonesand transitional stages

Even if all the technical and non-technical barriers could

be overcome, any societal change requires a transitionpathway if it is to be feasible. Such a topic could occupy

a large volume of text, and is not the main topic of this

paper. If the relative VI levels and technology categoriza-

tions are reviewed, these do suggest that a number of

individually feasible stages could be used as a transitional

pathway to increased robustness; these stepping stones

are tentatively identied as:

a) Functional alternatives to all essential consumables

become available locally

b) Services are converted from central to local/ad-hoc

approaches, using highly standardized protocols/

specications

c) General-purpose capabilities for research, fabrication,

diagnosis and formulation are decentralized.

d) Maintenance aspects of infrastructure and equipment

are decentralized

e) Mechanisms are develop and rened, to allow ad-hoc

centralization without long-term dependencies.

f) Durable alternatives for long-life components are

designed.

Strong incentives to reduce vulnerability already exist:

by suggesting at leastsome useful technologicalapproaches,

this paper may perhaps stimulate progress towards the

state of more robust and decentralized sophistication.



10/10

References

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organic slurry and advanced chemical hydride/hydrogen for pemfcvehicles. Proceedings of the 2000 U.S. DOE Hydrogen ProgramReview NREL/CP-57028890, 2000.

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Lindsay Robertson

The author is a professional engineer, in the mechanical discipline.Much of his careerhad been involved with energy, fuel, power and relatedtopics, and has included time spent in research establishments, in designofces and consulting practices as well as on construction sites! Hispersonal interests are quite wide (some are listed on my website), andinclude communication systems and electronics, plus other elds atprogressively more amateur levels. The author has lived in New Zealandmuch of his life, though with periods of work in UK and elsewhere. He hastaken a strong interest in the institutions that serve the engineeringprofession. Though he took a qualication in computing technology, hewould freely confess that only limited professional use has been made ofthat qualication.

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