tech sector bulls contend with slowing growth · 2016. 6. 14. · tech sector bulls contend with...
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Tech Sector Bulls Contend with Slowing Growth Jitendra Waral July 2015
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Key Risks for 2H: Comparables, Currency, Catalysts
China Tech Boom Needs Fundamentals Consideration
BuyBacks, M&A may Rise as Market Saturating
Growth Opportunities in Emerging Products, Japan
AGENDA
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Market cap weighted average returns graph for U.S., China, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, India
CHINA, JAPAN LEAD THE PACK
NSN NPG6N26S972L
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Pie chart of Global IT Spending {NSN NPG6N26S972O<Go>} Global IT Spending by Hardware, Software, Services
IT SPENDING SLOWS ON HARDWARE
Source: IDC
Total IT Spending: $2.1 trillion
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Russell 3000 Tech chart
RISK: TOUGHER 2H COMPS
Source: Bloomberg Consensus
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Growth forecasts for PCs, Smartphones, tablets, Wearables, Storage, Servers
RISK: LACK OF CATALYSTS WINDOWS 10 ALONE
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IDC Chart of IT spending constant currency and US Dollar
RISK: STRONGER DOLLAR
Source: IDC
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China IT Spending chart
CHINA IT SPENDING SLOWING
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China vs the World chart
CHINA TECH VALUED 2X US
NINTENDO
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SLOWING GROWTH SPURS M&A
Source: Bloomberg
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GROWTH SEGMENTS: EMERGING PRODUCTS HYPER GROWTH
Virtual Reality Drones Wearables Nvidia Sony
Facebook (Oculus) HTC
Samsung Leshi
DJI GoPro
Apple Fitbit
Garmin Xiaomi
LG Display
Source: Company Websites
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GROWTH SEGMENTS: JAPAN TECH AMID A TURNAROUND
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NINTENDO TAPS MOBILE GAMING
Source: Bloomberg
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CONSOLE GROWTH
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LOSS MAKING CONSOLE HISTORY
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SONY NETWORK SALES AID MARGINS
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SONY’S ACTIVISION DEAL MAY BOOST MARGINS
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VALUATION Segment Company Forward P/S 5 Yr Average
Virtual Reality
Nvidia 2.42 2.16
Facebook 14.1 11.8
HTC 0.37 0.9
Samsung 0.89 0.85
Drones DJI Technology Not Listed Not Listed
GoPro 3.99 4.4
Wearables
Apple 3.17 2.9
Fitbit 5.8 5.3 (Since IPO)
Garmin 2.8 3.0
Xiaomi Not Listed Not Listed
Japan Nintendo 5.2 2.7
Panasonic 0.49 0.31
Sony 0.51 0.28
Source: Bloomberg Consensus
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Key Risks for 2H: Comparables, Currency, Catalysts
China Tech Boom Needs Fundamentals Consideration
BuyBacks, M&A may Rise as Market Saturating
Growth Opportunities in Emerging Products, Japan
SUMMARY