team terminator brian novak danny ohrn michael cleaver emily ramage
Post on 19-Dec-2015
226 views
TRANSCRIPT
Annual Maximum Wind Velocity and Temperature Deviation (1900-2006)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Devia
tio
n f
rom
1900 T
em
pera
ture
Level
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Maxim
m W
ind
Velo
cit
y (
Kn
ots
)
Temp. Deviation
Wind Velocity
However, the actual hurricane data tells a different story…
Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Maximum Wind Velocity
Annual Maximum Wind Velocity
y = -0.0154x + 104.36
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Vel
oci
ty (
Kn
ots
)
Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 203.394
Chance Probability 0.0055
Maximum Wind Velocity by Decade
y = -0.0092x + 92.554
01020
30405060
708090
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Win
d V
elo
cit
y (
Kn
ots
)
Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 3.4198 Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00Chance Probability 0.9997
Annual Maximum Wind Velocity (1851-1899)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900Year
Win
d V
elo
city
(K
no
ts)
Annual Maximum Wind Velocity (1900-1949)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Year
Win
d V
elo
city
(K
no
ts)
Annual Maximum Wind Velocity ()
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1950 1970 1990Year
Win
d V
elo
city
(K
no
ts)
Slopes of Expected Value Regressions
1851-1899 -0.0722 Knots/Year
1900-1949 0.707 Knots/Year
1950-2006 -0.219 Knots/Year
Minimum Central Pressure and Temperature Deviation from 1900
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
Year after 1900
Tem
p.
Dev
iati
on
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re (
Mil
lib
ars)
Temp. Deviation
Central Pressure
Hurricane Intensity as a Function of Minimum Central Pressure
Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure
y = 0.1363x + 708.27
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Ce
ntr
al P
res
su
re (
Mill
iba
rs)
Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 25.8697
Chance Probability 1.000
Average Minimum Central Pressure by Decade
y = 0.1331x + 714.89
950
955
960
965
970
975
980
985
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Year
Ce
ntr
al P
res
su
re (
Mill
iba
rs)
Chi-Squared Sum Statistic 0.48922
Critical Value for p=0.01 32.00
Chance Probability 0.9999
Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure (1852-1899)
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900
Year
Ce
ntr
al
Pre
ss
ure
(M
illi
ba
rs)
Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure(1900-1949)
920930940950960970980990
10001010
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Year
Cen
tral
Pre
ssur
e (M
illib
ars)
Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure (1950-2006)
945
950
955
960
965
970
975
980
985
990
995
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Ce
ntr
al P
res
sure
(M
illib
ars
)
Slopes of Expected Value Regressions
1851-1899 0.1754 Millibars/Year
1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year
1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year
Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure (1852-1899)
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900
Year
Ce
ntr
al
Pre
ss
ure
(M
illi
ba
rs)
Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure(1900-1949)
920930940950960970980990
10001010
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Year
Cen
tral
Pre
ssur
e (M
illib
ars)
Annual Average Minimum Central Pressure (1950-2006)
945
950
955
960
965
970
975
980
985
990
995
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Ce
ntr
al P
res
sure
(M
illib
ars
)
Slopes of Expected Value Regressions
1851-1899 0.1754 Millibars/Year
1900-1949 0.352 Millibars/Year
1950-2006 0.1513 Millibars/Year
Hurricane FormationHurricane Formation
• The Three Requirements for Hurricane The Three Requirements for Hurricane FormationFormation
• Over Land, Hurricanes DieOver Land, Hurricanes Die
Our DataOur Data
• The Percentage of Measurable Storms that Reached Land
• The Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm
Percentage of Measureable Storms That Reach Land
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Time (years)
Perc
enta
ge t
hat
Rea
ch L
and
(x10
0)
Average Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm per Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Time (years)
Tim
e o
n L
an
d (
days)
Average Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm per Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Time (years)
Tim
e o
n L
an
d (
days)
•Standard Deviation was 0.20 daysStandard Deviation was 0.20 days•A ChiA Chi22 Test Determined X Test Determined X22 = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedom = 0.24 with 14 degrees of freedomCritical Value = 10.83, The null hypothesis cannot be rejected!Critical Value = 10.83, The null hypothesis cannot be rejected!
Average Number of Days on Land Per Land-bound Storm per 10 Years
y = 0.0029x - 4.1732
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Time (years)
Tim
e o
n L
an
d (
days)
Landfall ConclusionsLandfall Conclusions
• There is no linear correlation between time and percentage of storms that reach land
• The average number of days on land per land-bound storm
Frequency of Damage
• Insurance Industry takes notice -Al Gore• Swiss re sigma report• More People in Hazard areas -IWTC report
Frequency of Hurricanes
Chi squared value .125254642
Storms reaching Hurricane Strength
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
1850 1900 1950 2000
decade
Sto
rms
as H
urr
ican
es
Major Hurricanes
Absolute #’s increasing
Chi squared Value .738022
Major Hurricanes per Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Ca
teg
ory
4&
5 s
torm
s
Temperature since 1900
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Dev
iati
on
Number of Major Hurricanes since '44
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year (5 year average)
Nu
mb
er
Category 4&5’s have doubled in the Last Year1 -Al Gore
Chi Squared Value 3.449001
Frequency
• Increase in destructiveness not correlated
• Frequency of major hurricanes is increasing
• Shows some correlation to temperature
• Al’s short term scare
Duration Categories:
1) Season Duration
2) Storm• All Storms• In Hurricane Status• Longest Yearly Storm
10 Year Average Season Duration 1851-2006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Time (starting year of each 10 year period)
Nu
mb
er
of
Days o
f S
easo
n
Chi-squared: 35.94
Critical value, 16 df, p = 0.001: 39.25
Average Storm Duration vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006
10 Year Average Temperature Variation from 1900 Average vs. 10 Yr Avg. Storm Duration
y = 0.0187x + 28.365
y = 0.0072x - 0.2984
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Time (year)
10 Y
r A
vg.
Tem
per
atu
re D
evia
tio
n f
rom
19
00 A
vera
ge
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10 Y
ear
Ave
rag
e S
torm
Du
rati
on
(#
of
ob
serv
atio
ns)
10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg
10 yr avg storm duration (# of observation at 6 hour intervals)
Linear (10 yr avg storm duration (# of observation at 6 hour intervals))
Linear (10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg)
Average Temp Deviation from 1900 Average vs. Average Duration of Storms
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Time (year)
Tem
peart
ure
Devia
tio
n f
rom
1900 A
vera
ge
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Avera
ge D
ura
tio
n o
f S
torm
s (
# o
f o
bserv
ati
on
s)
Tempt Deviation from 1900 Avg. Avg. Duration of Storms (# of obs.)
Chi squared: 191
Critical Value, 11 df, p = 0.001: 31.26
Average Storm Duration as Hurricane vs. Temperature Variation 1900-2006
10 Yr Avg Temp Deviation from 1900 Avg vs. 10 Yr Avg Hurricane Length
y = -0.0137x + 15.88
y = 0.0072x - 0.2984
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
10 Y
r A
vg T
emp
Dev
iati
on
fro
m 1
900
Avg
0
5
10
15
20
25
10 Y
r A
vg L
eng
th o
f H
urr
ican
es (
# o
f o
bse
rvat
ion
s)
10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg temp 10 yr avg hurricane length
Linear (10 yr avg hurricane length) Linear (10 yr avg deviation from 1900 avg temp)
Deviation from 1900 Avg. Temp vs. Avg. Length of Storm in Hurricane Status
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Tem
p D
evia
tio
n f
rom
190
0 A
vg
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Avg
Len
gth
of
Sto
rm i
n H
urr
ican
e S
tatu
s (#
of
ob
serv
atio
ns)
deviation from 1900 avg temp total # obs of storm in hurricane status
Longest Yearly Storm vs. Temperature Deviation 1900-2006
Temp Deviation from 1900 Average vs. Longest Storm of Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Tem
p D
evia
tio
n f
rom
190
0 A
vg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Lo
ng
est
Sto
rm o
f Y
ear
(# o
f o
bse
rvat
ion
s)
deviation from 1900 avg temp longest storm of year (# obs)
10 Yr Avg Temp Deviation from 1900 Avg vs. 10 Yr Avg of Longest Yearly Storm
y = -0.0293x + 53.895
y = 0.0072x - 0.2984
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
10 Y
r A
vg T
emp
Dev
iati
on
fro
m 1
900
Avg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10 Y
r A
vg o
f L
on
ges
t Y
earl
y S
torm
(#
of
ob
serv
atio
ns)
10 yr avg temp deviation from 1900 avg 10 yr longest yearly storm avg
Linear (10 yr longest yearly storm avg) Linear (10 yr avg temp deviation from 1900 avg)
Duration Conclusions
• Season duration shows a positive correlation over time.
• Data does not support a relationship between storm duration and global temperature increase since 1900.
CONCLUSIONS
• Data does not consistently support a pattern of increased frequency and strength of hurricanes over time.
• Linear relationships remain linear despite increasing temperature trends.
• Discrepancies in measurement techniques?• Intricate dynamics of hurricane formation?• Single variable data modeling techniques?
References
Raw hurricane data from Greg Bothun’s link on Blackboard.uoregon.edu
Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/
1Lovgren , Stefan. "Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" Movie: Fact or Hype?.” National Geographic News. May 25, 2006. National Geographic. 24 Apr 2007 <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060524-global-warming.html>.
IWTC Statement "Global Warming and Hurricanes." Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Dec. 7, 2007. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 24 Apr 2007 <http://www.gfdl.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html>.