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The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economicswww.td.com/economics

August 6, 2010

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• TheU.S.economyscrapped131Knon-farmjobsinJuly.

• IfitcontinuestocreatejobsatthespeedithasshowedsincethelabormarketbottomedinDecember2009,

itwouldtakeroughlysevenyearstofullyabsorbthe8.4millionjobslosttotherecession.

• Aresearch paper writtenby FederalReserveFOMCmemberJamesBullard reignited thedebate onthe

prospectsoffurtherQuantitativeEasing.

• Followingsixmonthsofstronggains,Canadianemploymentfellby 9,300inJuly,andtheunemployment

rateinchedupto8.0%,from7.9%inthepriormonth.Themajorityofthejobslostwereinfull-timepositions

(-139,000)wherealmosthalfthedeclinewasineducationservices.

• CanadianBuildingpermitsroseto212,000unitsinJune,upfrom208,500unitsinMay.Despitetheslightuptick,buildingpermitsarebelowlevelsseenattheendof2009,indicatingacontinueddropinconstruction

activity.

• ThisweekwegotapreviewintoJuly’sexistinghomesalesformajorCanadianmarkets–wheresalesfell

wellbelowtherecordlevelsfromayearago.

Current*Week

Ago

52-Week

High

52-Week

Low

Stock Market Indexes

S&P 500 1110 1102 1217 980

S&P/TSX Comp. 11752 11713 12281 10532

DAX 6260 6148 6334 5202

FTSE 100 5332 5258 5825 4645

Nikkei 9642 9537 11339 9082

Fixed Income Yields

U.S. 10-yr Treasury 2.82 2.91 3.99 2.82

Canada 10-yr Bond 3.07 3.12 3.72 3.07

Germany 10-yr Bund 2.52 2.67 3.51 2.51

UK 10-yr Gilt 3.22 3.33 4.23 3.22Japan 10-yr Bond 1.06 1.07 1.48 1.01

Foreign Exchange Cross Rates

C$ (USD per CAD) 0.97 0.97 1.00 0.90

Euro (USD per EUR) 1.33 1.31 1.51 1.19

Pound (USD per GBP) 1.60 1.57 1.68 1.43

Yen (JPY per USD) 85.3 86.5 97.6 85.3

Commodity Spot Prices**

Crude Oil ($US/bbl) 81.3 79.0 86.8 65.7

Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 4.84 4.81 7.51 1.88

Copper ($US/met. tonne) 7371.0 7273.5 7960.3 5857.8

Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1205.7 1181.0 1256.8 934.6

THISWEEKINTHEMARKETS

*as of 11am on Friday, **Oil-WTI, Cushing, Nat. Gas-Henry Hub, LA

(Thursday close price), Copper-LME Grade A, Gold-London Gold

Bullion; Source: Bloomberg

Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate)

Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate)

European Central Bank (Refi Rate)

Bank of England (Repo Rate)

Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate)

Source: Central Banks, Haver Analytics

GLOBALOFFICIALPOLICYRATETARGETS

Current Target

0.10%

0.50%

0 - 0.25%

0.75%

1.00%

U.S.PERSONALSAVINGSRATE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

% of disposable income

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis



The Weekly Bottom LineAugust 6, 2010

TD Economicswww.td.com/economics

2

UNITEDSTATES–JOBSAREEASING,SOMIGHTTHEFED

It was all about jobs and QE this week; not Her Majesty

the Queen of England, if you were wondering, but rather

Quantitative Easing –the practice of a central bank buyingdebt securities to boost money supply. We learned today

that the US economy scrapped 131K non-farm jobs in July.

Most of the decline stemmed from the departure of 143K

U.S. census workers. Private sector jobs added 71K on

the month, below market expectations. June private sector

net hiring was revised signicantly downward. The most

discouraging aspect of the report is that it conrms, once

again, that improvements in the job market will materialize

very slowly. If the U.S. economy continues to create jobs

at the speed it has showed since the labor market bottomed

in December 2009, it would take roughly seven years tofully absorb the 8.4 million jobs lost to the recession. This

is way too slow for an economy that needs private demand

to ll the void that fading scal stimulus will generate in

the coming quarters. More so in light of the latest personal

income and spending data, which shows U.S. households

continue to increase their savings rate.

On the quantitative easing front, a research paper written

by Federal Reserve FOMC member James Bullard published

last week reignited the debate on the prospects of further QE

within the very limited Fed’s realm of policy options. The

paper argues that, in the event of a further decline in ina-tion (which could be triggered by another shock or simply

by a more pronounced slowdown in economic growth, or

a combination of both), the Fed should resort to a second

round of QE. The current stance of policy might prove

inadequate and runs the risk of the economy experiencing

Japanese-style deation.

Bullard’s paper and the repercussion it had on the market

will very likely force the discussion about QE at the FOMC

meeting scheduled for next week. In recent meetings, some

members have voiced their concern regarding the balance

of costs and benets of such a policy tool. Buying troubledassets was a critical step to avoid a complete meltdown at

the onset of the nancial crisis. It provided a backstop for

markets which had become completely dysfunctional. On

the other hand, the effectiveness of a second round of QE

to recharge the slowing recovery is far more controversial.

Simply put, in an environment of historically low rates in

which borrowers are unwilling to demand credit and lenders

reluctant to extend loans, what can more liquidity accom-

plish? Will it address the underlying lack of condence that

is putting a lid on credit ows?

One could argue that, given the limited arsenal at the

Fed’s disposal, it would be worth trying it. Yet again, there

are potential costs to further QE, such as long lasting disrup-

tions to the functioning of nancial markets, perceptions of

sovereign debt monetization, crowding-out of private buy-

ers, and the associated reputational cost for the central bank

The discussion of this topic will likely reafrm the

perception of a growing divide within the FOMC, between

those who stand rmly behind the need for continued mon-etary stimulus and those, such as Thomas Hoenig, who has

been for some time advocating for a change in verbiage in

the FOMC statements which would set the stage for a fu-

ture fed funds rate hike. In all, a change in the policy rate

remains off the table during this meeting, but as always, i

will be very interesting to scan the after-meeting statemen

for shifts in language, and later on, to dive into the details

of the minutes. We are getting to the point where it would

be refreshing to observe at least a slight change in tone in

communication that could hint to where the Fed’s collective

mind is at on the issue of QE and the future rebalancing ofmonetary policy.

Martin Schwerdtfeger, Economist

416-982-2559

U.S.JOBS

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

140Public Payroll -L-

Private Payroll -L-

Total Payroll -R-

million peoplemonthly change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics





3

CANADA–GLASSSTILLFULL

After adding a whopping 308,000 jobs over the rst

half of 2010, Canadian employment fell for the rst time

in 6 months in July. The decline comes on the heels of

a robust 11-month spell of labour market recovery. And,

despite July’s letdown, exactly one year after the bottom in

Canadian employment, the Canadian economy had recouped

94% of the jobs lost during the 2008/09 recession. This is

a remarkable performance given the stage of the economic

recovery and when compared to the United States, where

the jobs recovery has been anemic at best.

However, the outlook for Canadian employment is not as

rosy. While one month does not make a trend, the decelera-

tion in trend employment gains may be the start of what is

expected to be a pronounced moderation in job creation inthe second half of this year. In particular, the largest sources

of hiring in Canada – small businesses – are likely to scale

back the rate at which they have been adding to payrolls.

This week, the CFIB’s business outlook survey indicated

that small business condence slipped for a third straight

month in July, reaching a 7-month low. Since the CFIB’s

index is highly correlated with real GDP growth, these

results suggest that after growth cooled to sub 3% in Q2

2010, small businesses are bracing for slower growth in Q3.

In line with an anticipated cooling in domestic demand, the

industries with the sharpest decline in condence are thosehighly tied to domestic spending like retail, construction,

hospitality, and professional services. Also tied to concerns

over the U.S. recovery, manufacturing condence weakened

in the last three months.

This is consistent with our view that the pace of real GDP

growth will cool toward a range of 2.5-2.9% in the second

half of this year. Indeed, it is widely believed that the major-

ity of strength in domestic spending, housing in particular

was the result of households bringing forward purchases in

the wake of record low interest rates and stimulative sca

policy measures. Now that short-term interest rates are on

the rise, and Canadian consumers appear fatigued, domes

tic spending is expected to be less supportive to economic

growth in the second half of this year. This is evident in

the housing market where construction output retraced six

months of gains in June, and July existing home sales in

major markets fell below the record pace of a year ago.This suggests that industries that have helped suppor

the labour market recovery like retail, construction, nance

insurance and real estate, and professional services wil

likely lose steam in the coming quarters. The pace of eco

nomic expansion expected in the second half of this year is

consistent with average monthly job creation in the range o

15,000-20,000 – about half the average job gains posted in

the rst half of this year. While we have seen an impressive

decline in the unemployment rate from its peak value o

8.7% a year ago to its current rate of 8.0%, the future pace

of job creation may not be enough to support any furtherdeclines in the unemployment rate in 2010. Indeed, there is

a risk that the combination of robust growth in the working

age population, and re-entrance of discouraged workers

could put slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate

in the coming months. Such upticks in the unemploymen

rate should not be viewed as a negative sign, but rather a

reection of better employment prospects. We expect the

unemployment rate to hover in the range of 8.0-8.2% in

the near future.

Diana Petramala, Economis

416-982-6420

CANADIANLABOURMARKET

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Employment

Unemployment Rate

Change in Employment, 000's Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics

CFIBSMALLBUSINESSBAROMETERVS.REAL

GDP

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Feb-01 Sep-02 Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Real GDP (RHS)

CFIB Barometer (LHS)

Index, Level Q/Q% Change, Annualized

Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics, CFIB

Est.





4

U.S.:UPCOMINGKEYECONOMICRELEASES

There is more than the usual level of anticipation re-

garding the FOMC meeting next week given the increasing

chatter about a potential change in Fed communications, one

that would reect a growing transition away from tightening

and toward how to accommodate more easing should that

need arise. We do not think the Fed is prepared to deliver

what some in the markets are hoping for, namely a more

explicit statement regarding the reinvestment of maturingdebt and possibly coupon payments into the balance sheet

to prevent it from contracting. Instead, we expect the Fed to

essentially maintain the status quo and consider what steps

to take at a later date to see if the data reject or reinforce the

need to provide more accommodation. Bernanke admitted in

his Humphrey Hawkins testimony that the Fed had thought

less about ways to engineer more accommodation than they

had about how best to withdraw existing accommodation.

That is changing, but that does not suggest any inclination

to side more decisively with more accommodation, at least

not yet. Growth is rolling over, but jobs are being created,the ISM’s are holding comfortably above the 50 threshold,

FOMC Interest Rate Decision*

Release Date: August 10/10Current Rate: 0.00% to 0.25%

TD Forecast: 0.00% to 0.25%

Consensus: 0.00% to 0.25%

commodity prices have been rising since the last meeting

credit spreads narrowing, and market rates falling. Finan-

cial conditions are, therefore, marginally more supportive

to growth then they were at the last meeting. With the six

month annual rate of core ination rising at a 0.9% annua

rate compared to 0.3% in May, evidence of a bottoming ou

in rental prices and a surge in capital investment spending

there is little reason to presume now is the time for a decisive

change in Fed communications.

*Forecast by TDSI, Rates & Foreign Exchange Research. For further information, contact TDSecurities.EconomicswStrategy@

tdsecurities.com.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08

0

1

2

3

4

5

6%

FEDFUNDSRATE

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board

%

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5

Retail sales are expected to post their rst gain in three

months rising by 0.9% on a combination of strong auto

sales and rmer gasoline sales. The 0.3% monthly gain in

sales ex autos will be the best since April and follows two

consecutive monthly declines. These core sales will get a

bounce from gasoline prices, an easing in the pace of weak-

ness in building materials, furniture sales, and a rebound in

sporting goods. Nevertheless, the trend weakness in sales

will remain in place with the level of sales activity still lower than it was earlier in the year. The six month annual rate

will dip to -2.4% in July, well off the recent highs of 10.4%

in the six months leading up to February. It does suggest

that consumption will get a nice bounce out of the gates for

Q3 providing a nice llip for real consumption which will

struggle to rise above 1.5% in Q3. The weak consumption

and higher savings pattern will persist for the foreseeable

U.S. Retail Sales - July*Release Date: August 13/10

June Result: -0.5% M/M; ex-autos -0.1% M/MTD Forecast: 0.9% M/M; ex-autos 0.3% M/M

Consensus: 0.4% M/M; ex-autos 0.3% M/M

Ination data for July is expected to provide a double

edged sword with rising headline ination offset by ongoing

disination in core prices. Headline prices are forecast to rise

by 0.2%, driven primarily by favorable seasonals in energy

prices which are expected to rise 2.0% on the month. Core

prices should remain broadly unchanged at 0.0% (0.03%

rounded down), despite a third consecutive monthly gain

in owners equivalent rent. Core commodities should post a

modest decline on the month owing to weakness in apparel

prices and a likely dip in used car prices which have surged

by 16% y/y. Overall core commodities will be rising at onlya 0.7% rate y/y, well off its recent peak of 3% y/y as recently

as January of this year. In July, lodging prices which have

jumped at an unsustainable 14% annual rate since January

will offset the putative rise in rents from OER and rent of

residence leaving shelter costs down for the rst time in ve

U.S. CPI - July*Release Date: August 13/10

June Result: core 0.2% M/M; all-items -0.1% M/M

TD Forecast: core 0.0% M/M; all-items 0.2% M/M

Consensus: core 0.1% M/M; all-items 0.2% M/M

months. Core services, while modestly up on the month

will be rising at a new cycle low of 0.9% y/y. Overall, The

composite change in core ination will leave prices rising

at the slowest rate in over 50 years keeping fears of ongo-

ing price compression fresh among policy makers and bond

investors alike.


tdsecurities.com.

future and without some evidence of stronger job growth

consumer spending will continue to retreat as a percent of

GDP. After hitting a high of 71.5% of GDP in Q1 2009, tha

share is set to fall to 69% by the end of 2011.

U.S.CONSUMERPRICEINDEX(CPI)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

All Items All Items Excluding Food and Energy

Y/Y % Chg.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Haver Analytics

Y/Y % Chg.

U.S.RETAILANDFOODSERVICESSALES

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10

Total

Excl. Automotive Dealers

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Haver Analytics.

M/M % Chg.









6

CANADA:UPCOMINGKEYECONOMICRELEASES

Canada’s merchandise trade balance is expected to fall

further into a decit position in June. At a forecasted level

of -$0.8B, this will be the largest decit since September of

last year. On a trade-weighted basis, the Canadian dollar was

at on the month, leaving uctuations in demand as the main

drivers of exports and imports. Part of the outsized increase

in auto exports in May is expected to be reversed, which

when combined with the observed weakness in shipmentsof US durable goods, is forecast to cause exports to fall by

3.0% M/M. Higher commodity prices should provide some

support to exports. Meanwhile, the gradual deceleration in

domestic demand is forecast to contribute to a modest 1.2%

M/M fall in imports. After accounting for price changes, real

exports and imports are forecast to rise, though as in months

past, the net effect on economic activity remains ambiguous.

Canadian International Trade - June*Release Date: August 11/10

May Result: -$0.5B

TD Forecast: -$0.8B

Consensus: N/A

Canadian Housing Starts - July*Release Date: August 10/10

June Result: 192.8K

TD Forecast: 178K

Consensus: 183K

The July release of housing starts will provide a rst

glimpse of the Canadian housing market in the post-

harmonized sales tax (HST) era. Given the lag between

construction and sales, the support to starts from builders

looking to beat the tax is well in the rear view mirror. What

we have seen since is a reection of the headwinds that

have arrested a once buoyant housing market. Over the last

three months, starts have marked a steady decline, and areexpected to have fallen further in July to an annualized level

of 178K. Single unit starts are expected to hold onto their

gains made in June following the outsized decline in May

while the ever-volatile multiples component is forecast to

fall further. The moderation in starts is consistent with the

steady erosion in building permits over the last three months.

CANADIANINTERNATIONALMERCHANDISETRADE

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10

Exports

Imports

Dollars, Billions

Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.

CANADIANHOUSINGSTARTS

100

125

150

175

200

225

Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: CMHC and Haver Analytics.

Thousands Thousands

TotalStarts

(leftscale)

UrbanMultiples

(rightscale)

Looking further into the third quarter, the impact of the HST

is forecast to take a bigger bite out housing construction

with a forecasted decline in the level of starts to 167K units

Looking further into the future, if the recent run to parity in

the CAD is sustained, the recent deterioration in the trade

balance may become a familiar sight.


tdsecurities.com.









7

RECENTKEYECONOMICINDICATORS:AUGUST2-6,2010

Aug 2 ISM Manufacturing Jul Index 55.5 56.2Aug 2 ISM Prices Paid Jul Index 57.5 57.0

Aug 2 Construction Spending Jun M/M % Chg. 0.1 -0.2 R

Aug 3 Personal Income Jun M/M % Chg. 0.0 0.4 R

Aug 3 Personal Spending Jun M/M % Chg. 0.0 0.2 R

Aug 3 PCE Deflator Jun Y/Y % Chg. 1.4 1.9 R

Aug 3 PCE Core Jun Y/Y % Chg. 1.4 1.3 R

Aug 3 Factory Orders Jun M/M % Chg. -1.2 -1.4 R

Aug 3 Pending Home Sales Jun M/M % Chg. -2.6 -30.0 R

Aug 3 ABC Consumer Confidence 1-Aug Index -50 -48

Aug 3 Domestic Vehicle Sales Jul Millions 8.94 8.57

Aug 3 Total Vehicle Sales Jul Millions 11.56 11.08

Aug 4 MBA Mortgage Applications 30-Jul M/M % Chg. 1.3 -4.4

Aug 4 Challenger Job Cuts Jul Y/Y % Chg. -57.2 -47.1

Aug 4 ADP Employment Change Jul Thousands 42.0 13Aug 4 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jul Index 54.3 53.8

Aug 5 Initial Jobless Claims 31-Jul Thousands 479 457 R

Aug 5 Continuing Claims 24-Jul Thousands 4537 4565 R

Aug 5 ICSC Chain Store Sales Jul Y/Y % Chg. 2.8 3.0

Aug 6 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jul Thousands -131 -125 R

Aug 6 Average Hourly Earning Jul M/M % Chg. 0.2 -0.1 R

Aug 6 Average Weekly Hours Jul Hours 34.2 34.1

Aug 6 Unemployment Rate Jul % 9.5 9.5

Aug 6 Change in Manufacturing Jul Thousands 36 9 R

Aug 6 Consumer Credit Jun USD, Blns -9.1

Aug 5 Building Permits Jun M/M % Chg. 6.5 -10.8 R

Aug 6 Net Change in Employment Jul Thousands -9.3 93.2

Aug 6 Unemployment Rate Jul % 8.0 7.9

Aug 6 Ivey Purchaing Managers Index Jul Index 54.0 58.9

Aug 1 JP Official Reserve Assets Jul Yen, Blns 1063.5 1050.2

Aug 1 AU TD Securities Inflation Jul Y/Y % Chg. 2.8 3.6

Aug 1 NZ ANZ Commodity Price Jul M/M % Chg. -0.8 -1.2 R

Aug 2 JP Vehicle Sales Jul Y/Y % Chg. 15.0 20.6

Aug 2 AU RBA Commodity Index Jul Y/Y % Chg. 51.0 43.0 R

Aug 2 UK PMI Manufacturing Jul Index 57.3 57.5 R

Aug 2 JP Monetary Base Jul Y/Y % Chg. 6.1 3.6

Aug 2 AU Retail Sales Jun M/M % Chg. 0.2 0.2

Aug 2 AU Building Approvals Jun Y/Y % Chg. 13.20 26.6 R

Aug 3 AU RBA Cash Target 3-Aug % 4.50 4.50

Aug 3 UK Halifax House Prices Jul M/M % Chg. 0.6 -0.6

Aug 3 UK PMI Construction Jul Index 54.1 58.4

Aug 3 EU Euro-Zone PPI Jun M/M % Chg. 0.3 0.3

Aug 3 AU Trade Balance Jun AUD, Mlns 3539 1645 R

Aug 3 AU House Price Index Q2 Y/Y % Chg. 18 20.0 R

Aug 4 UK PMI Services Jul Index 53.1 54.4

Aug 4 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales Jun Y/Y % Chg. 0.4 0.3 R

Aug 4 NZ Unemployment Rate Q2 % 6.8 6.0

Aug 5 UK New Car Registrations Jul Y/Y % Chg. -13 10.8

Aug 5 GE Factory Orders Jun Y/Y % Chg. 24.6 24.8 R

Aug 5 UK BoE Asset Purchase Target Aug GBP, Blns 200 200

Aug 5 UK BoE Announces Rates 5-Aug % 0.50 0.50

Aug 5 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates 5-Aug % 1.00 1.00

Aug 6 GE Industrial Production Jun M/M % Chg. -0.6 2.6 R

Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics

International

Prior

Canada

UnitedStates

Release

DateEconomicIndicators

Datafor

PeriodUnits Current





8

UPCOMINGECONOMICRELEASESANDEVENTS:AUGUST9-13,2010

Release

DateTime* EconomicIndicator/Event

Datafor

PeriodUnits

Consensus

ForecastLastPeriod

UnitedStates

Aug 10 7:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism Jul Index -- 89Aug 10 8:30 Nonfarm Productivity Q2 Q/Q % Chg. 0.2 2.8

Aug 10 8:30 Unit Labor Costs Q2 Q/Q % Chg. 1.8 -1.3

Aug 10 9:00 Fed's Open Market Committee Meets on Interest Rates, Economy

Aug 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun M/M % Chg. 0.5 0.5

Aug 10 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Aug Index -- 44.7

Aug 10 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision 10-Aug % 0.25 0.25

Aug 10 17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence 8-Aug Index -- -50

Aug 11 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Aug M/M % Chg. -- 1.3

Aug 11 8:30 Trade Balance Jun USD, Blns -42.7 -42.3

Aug 11 14:00 Monthly Budget Statement Jul USD, Blns -168.5 -180.7

Aug 12 8:30 Import Price Index Jul M/M % Chg. 0.4 -1.3

Aug 12 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims 7-Aug Thousands -- 479

Aug 12 8:30 Continuing Claims 31-Jul Thousands -- 4537

Aug 13 8:30 Consumer Price Index Jul Y/Y % Chg. 1.2 1.1

Aug 13 8:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy Jul Y/Y % Chg. 0.9 0.9Aug 13 8:30 CPI Core Index SA Jul Index -- 221.388

Aug 13 8:30 Advance Retail Sales Jul M/M % Chg. 0.4 -0.5

Aug 13 8:30 Retail Sales Less Autos Jul M/M % Chg. 0.3 -0.1

Aug 13 8:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas Jul M/M % Chg. -- 0.1

Aug 13 9:55 U. of Michigan Confidence Aug Index 72.0 67.8

Aug 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jun M/M % Chg. 0.3 0.1

CanadaAug 10 8:15 Housing Starts Jul Thousands 183.0 192.8

Aug 10 8:30 New Housing Price Index Jun M/M % Chg. 0.2 0.3

Aug 11 8:30 Int'l Merchandise Trade Jun CAD, Blns -- -0.5

Aug 13 8:30 New Motor Vehicle Sales Jun M/M % Chg. -- 0.2

InternationalAug 8 19:50 JP Current Account Total Jun Yen, Blns 1310.6 1205.3

Aug 8 19:50 JP Japan Money Stock M2 Jul Y/Y % Chg. 2.9 2.9

Aug 8 19:50 JP Adjusted Current Account Total Jun Yen, Blns 1447.0 904.8Aug 8 21:30 AU Home Loans Jun M/M % Chg. -- 1.9

Aug 8 21:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements Jul M/M % Chg. -- 2.7

Aug 9 0:00 JP BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting

Aug 9 1:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook Jul Index -- 48.3

Aug 9 2:00 GE Trade Balance Jun Euros, Bln -- 9.7

Aug 9 2:30 FR Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jul Index -- 100

Aug 9 4:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Aug Index -- -1.3

Aug 9 21:30 AU NAB Business Conditions Jul Index -- 8.0

Aug 10 -- JP BOJ Target Rate 10-Aug % 0.1 0.1

Aug 10 2:00 JP Machine Tool Orders Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- 143.8

Aug 10 2:45 FR Manufacturing Production Jun Y/Y % Chg. -- 7.5

Aug 10 2:45 FR Industrial Production Jun Y/Y % Chg. -- 8.2

Aug 10 4:30 UK Total Trade Balance Jun GBP, Mlns -3500 -3817

Aug 10 19:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence Jul Index -- 63

Aug 10 20:30 AU Westpac Cons. Confidence Index Aug Index -- 113.1Aug 11 4:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) Jun % 7.8 7.8

Aug 11 5:30 UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

Aug 11 18:30 NZ Business NZ PMI Jul Index -- 56.2

Aug 11 21:30 AU Employment Change Jul Thousands -- 45.9

Aug 11 21:30 AU Unemployment Rate Jul % -- 5.1

Aug 12 1:00 JP Consumer Confidence Households Jul Index 43.7 43.5

Aug 12 5:00 EC Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. Wda Jun Y/Y % Chg. -- 9.4

Aug 12 18:45 NZ Retail Sales Jun M/M % Chg. 0.5 0.4

Aug 13 2:45 FR Gross Domestic Product Q2 Q/Q % Chg. -- 0.10

Aug 13 5:00 EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance Jun Euros, Bln -- -3.4

Aug 13 5:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. Q2 Q/Q % Chg. -- 0.2

* Eastern Standard Time; Shaded area represents actual figures; Sources: Bloomberg, TD Economics





9

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