tcmf 16th april sharing v1 0 - national grid · capacity sharing – theory sharing explicit...
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Sharing
Andy WainwrightNational Grid
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Sharing under CMP213
Sharing on the wider systemReflecting recent developments in transmission investment drivers (GSR009)
Proposed changes to the Transport Model
Reflecting the impact of individual usersProposed changes to the Tariff Model
Workgroup developmentsDiversity
Hybrid annual load factor
Sharing on the peripheries of the system
Sharing
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Sharing – Defect
Sharing
Increasing variable generation = increased network sharing
Operational Cost(SRMC, Constraints, Commodity)
Investment Cost(LRMC, Assets, Capacity)
Total Cost
= Investment + Operational
Operational Cost(SRMC, Constraints, Commodity)
Operational Cost(SRMC, Constraints, Commodity)
Investment Cost(LRMC, Assets, Capacity)
Total Cost
= Investment + Operational
On wider system greater proportion of investment driven by cost benefit analysis (GSR-009)
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Capacity Sharing – Theory
Sharing
Explicit information is not available (TAR)
Implicit assumptions must be made
For investment driven by “year round” conditions, these should reflect assumptions made in cost benefit analysis
£
time
Constraints (SRMC)
Reinforcements (LRMC)
TSOs incentivised to balance SRMC and LRMC
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GSR-009: Review of NETS SQSS for IntermittentTotal transmission cost = operational + infrastructure
GSR-009 set out to create deterministic standards from detailed cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Codes/gbsqsscode/LiveAmendments/
Sharing
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GSR-009: Outcomes
Split planning background into peak and pseudo-CBA
Fixed scaling factors for some generation
Supported by full blown CBA for large investments
Sharing
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Translating GSR009 into TNUoS methodology
Sharing
Sharing takes place on the wider network
Dual backgrounds in the Transport Model – SQSS
Circuits selected as either Year Round or Peak Security based on higher MW flow
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Reflecting Characteristics of individual users
Sharing
Separate tariffs consistent with network planning
Generator specific load factor multiplier for year round
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Is load factor a reasonable proxy?
Sharing
Many characteristics of a generator contribute to incremental impact on network costs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Normalised
Increm
etna
l Cost Impa
ct
Annual Load Factor
Market Model Outputs vs. Theoretical Perfect Relationships
Perfect LF vs. Incremental Cost Relationship
Perfect TEC vs. Incremental Cost Relationship
Market Model Output: Incremental Cost for Generator Plant Type Load Factor
Market model; relationship between generators and network costs
Original; balances simplicity with cost reflectivity
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Basics of a Market Model
Fuel Price
CO2 Price
ROC/FiT Price
Capacity
Unit Avail.
Fuel Avail.
Efficiency
Demand
Merit Order
Unc
onst
rain
ed D
ispa
tch Pric
esG
en. U
nit
Mar
ket
Fuel Price
CO2 Price
ROC/FiT Price
Capacity
Unit Avail.
Fuel Avail.
Efficiency
Demand
Merit Order
Sharing
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Market Model - Generation Inputs
Price £/MW
Capacity MW
Demand
Merit Order
Market
Capacity/MEL
Efficiency
Unit Avail.
Fuel Avail.
Gen. Unit
Fuel
CO2
ROC/FiT
Prices
Implicit Assumptions
Sharing
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Market Model - Generation Merit Order
Price £/MW
Capacity MWTechnology 1Technology 2
Technology 3
Technology 4
Technology 5
Technology 6
Sharing
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Market Model - Unconstrained Dispatch
100%0%
100%
% P
eak
Dem
and
% Time of Year
Demand Load Duration Curve
Annual Demand Variance
GenerationUnconstrained Dispatch
Demand Samples ( < 8760)
Sharing
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Market Model - Network Capability
Technology 1Technology 2
Technology 3
Technology 4
Technology 5
Technology 6
Zonal Capacities
Zonal Network Representation
G1 = 10GWD1 = 5GW
G2 = 45GWD2 = 50GW
Boundary Capability= 4 GW
Circuits (1GW each)
Unconstrained Dispatch(One Demand Sample)
Boundary Flow = G1 – D1= 5GW
Boundary Flow > Boundary Capability
Sharing
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Market Model - Constrained Dispatch
Technology 1Technology 2
Technology 3
Technology 4
Technology 5
Technology 6
Zonal Network Representation
G1 = 10GWD1 = 5GW
G2 = 45GWD2 = 50GW
Boundary Capability= 4 GW
Circuits (1GW each)
Constrained Dispatch
Boundary Flow = G1 – D1= 5GW
Boundary Flow = Boundary Capability
1GW BM Action
Offer (£/MWh)
Bid (£/MWh)
9GW
46GW
4GW
Sharing
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Elements Influencing Constraint Costs
Unc
onst
rain
ed D
ispa
tch Pric
es
Fuel Price
CO2 Price
ROC/FiT Price
Gen
Uni
tM
arke
t Demand
Merit Order
Con
stra
ined
Dis
patc
hN
etw
ork
BM
Capability
Seasonal Avail.
Outage Avail.
Investment
Bid Price
Offer Price
Installed Cap.
Unit Avail.
Fuel Avail.
Efficiency
Sharing
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Pric
e
Price
Key elements affecting incremental costTo
tal I
ncre
men
tal C
ost o
f Con
stra
ints
Constraint Cost Components
Out
put Non
–C
oinc
iden
t R
unni
ng
Con
stra
int
Coi
ncid
ence
Volume
Load Factor = Incremental Constraints
Sharing
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1818
Load Factor (%)
Incr
emen
tal C
onst
rain
t Cos
ts
(£/M
W)
1000
Non Low Carbon PlantLow Carbon Plant
Diversity Alternatives –Effect of Bid/Offer Price
• In areas with insufficient diversity of plant the SO may be forced to accept bids from infra-marginal plant
Price Effect
(Plant setting bid and offer prices are both marginal plant types)
(Plant setting bid price is infra-marginal)
LRMC
• Asymmetric between bids and offers (bids more important)
• Observed in analysis presented to the group
Sharing
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Price
Export constrained zones with low diversityTo
tal I
ncre
men
tal C
ost o
f Con
stra
ints
Constraint Cost Components
Out
put Non
–C
oinc
iden
t R
unni
ng
Con
stra
int
Coi
ncid
ence
Volume
Incremental Constraint Cost
Load Factor
Pric
e ≠
Sharing
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Export constrained zones – Simplified Analysis
Simplified ‘test zone’ analysis served to corroborate hypothesis and help quantify effect
Offshore W
ind
Onshore Wind
Sharing
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Diversity 1
(YR Shared incremental £/kW) x ALFALF x TEC(YR Not-shared incremental £/kW) x TEC
Sharing
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Diversity 2
(YR Shared Incremental £/kW) x ALFALF x TEC(YR Not-shared Incremental £/kW) x TEC
Sharing
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Diversity 3
(Incremental £/kW) x ZSFZSF x TEC
Sharing
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Sharing under diversity alternatives
100/0
LC/C
70/30
50/50
20/80
Boundary 1
Boundary 2
Boundary 3
Boundary 4
Boundary Shared km
Sharing
24
100/0
70/30
50/50
20/80
Boundaries and LC/C ratios are illustrative
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Sharing under diversity alternatives
100/0
LC/C
70/30
50/50
20/80
Boundary 1
Boundary 2
Boundary 3
Boundary 4
Boundary Shared km Zone A Totals
Sharing
Zonal totals made up of aggregate of relevant boundaries
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Load Factor Alternatives
Workgroup concerns over ability of original to reflect step changes in user outputs.
Alternative for user to provide own forecast if different to National Grid calculated ALF
Hybrid Alternative
Penalty payments if forecast is inaccurate
Sharing
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Sharing at the peripheries of the system
Diversity impacts potentially greatest at peripheral parts of system
Local circuits still built for capacity
These are managed implicitly in diversity options
For Original, propose to alter MITS definition to improve cost reflectivity
Radial circuits
However, sharing could still exist on such circuits
Heriott-Watt work; CCF
Sharing
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 13 26 39 52
Peak outpu
t (M
W)
Week
Total output
capacity
95th percentile
median
5th percentile
Potential for counter correlation of low carbon technologies
Could be reflected in radial circuit designs by TOs
Use of counter correlation factor (CCF)
Herriot – Watt Analysis & Counter Correlation Factor
Sharing