task report on financial modelling module
DESCRIPTION
This report aims to investigate stock performance of new listed companies, the companies in which launched initial public offering (IPO) in stock market. Based on theoretical review and empirical studies, five variables are considered as determinants of IPO companies stock returns, namely: age of company, total assets, ownership concentration, founder, rate of return on capital employed (ROCE), and industry or sectors where the company operates . The report, therefore, will assess the notion of these relationships through both descriptive and inferential statistics. 300 samples are selected to conduct the analysis.TRANSCRIPT
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Full name : La Ode Sabaruddin
Student ID Number : 139040727
Program : Accounting and Finance MSc
Module : Financial Modeling (MN7024)
Word Count : 1965 (References and appendix are not included)
1. Introduction
This report aims to investigate stock performance of new listed companies , the
companies in which launched initial public offering (IPO) in stock market. Based on
theoretical review and empirical studies, five variables are considered as determinants
of IPO companies stock returns, namely: age of company, total assets, ownership
concentration, founder, rate of return on capital employed (ROCE), and industry or
sectors where the company operates1. The report, therefore, will assess the notion of
these relationships through both descriptive and inferential statistics. 300 samples are
selected to conduct the analysis.
2. Model Specification, Variables Definitions and Measurements
Model specification is the process of converting theories into a regression
model (Lee, et. al., 1999 p. 178). Referring to prior studies, stock returns of IPO
companies are primarily determined by a linear combination of five explanatory
variables, as mentioned before. The theoretical model can be written as follows:
(Adapted from Wooldridge, 2002 p.48)
Variables definitions and measurements:
IPOreturn = rate of return three years after IPO launched, P t / Pt-0, where Pt-0
represents the IPO price, and Pt the trading price three years
subsequently (%)
age = age of company (years)
size = total assets of the company ( million)
con = ownership concentration, percentage shares of pre-IPO owners post
floatation (%).
founder = CEO is also founder of the company:
1 if yes
0 if no
ROCE = average return on capital employed over the year prior to IPO (%)
1Other determinants of IPO return exist in literature, see, for example, Bansal and Khanna(2012); Bessler and Thies (2007); and Ritter and Welch (2002).
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industry = Sector in which company operates:
1 if computer hardware/electronics
2 if pharmaceuticals
3 if other manufacturing
4 if software development
5 if other servicesu = unobservable random disturbance of error
3. Statistical Analysis
3.1. Univariate AnalysisDescriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics describes characteristics and spread of data through
graph and numerical summaries. Table 1 presents characteristics of IPO sample
companies for continues variables, while categorical variables are presented in table
2.
Table 1
Characteristics of IPO Sample CompaniesContinues Variables
Continues Variables
IPOreturn Age Size Con ROCE
Mean 20.241 14.63 18355.28 28.85 35.48
Standard deviation 27.910 2.793 9600.135 17.082 24.625
Normality tests (p-values):- Kolmogorov-Smirnov- Shapiro-walk
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.004
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.200
0.268
From the above table we can see that:
- IPO return, size, ownership concentration, and ROCE variables have relativelywider data spreads, indicated by high values of standard deviation. On the other
hand, data of age variable are closer to its mean, indicated by lower value of
standard deviation.
- Normality tests indicate that ROCE variable has normal distribution, while othersnot. Central limit theorem, however, says that random variables with large samples
(i.e. >30) will be normally distributed (Watsham and Parramore, 1997 p.136-137).
For graphical figures of continues variables, see appendix 1 section a.
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Table 2
Characteristics of IPO Sample Companies Categorical Variables
Frequency Percentage
Industry Sectors:
Computer hardware/electronics 53 17.7Pharmaceuticals 17 5.7
Other manufacturing 113 37.7
Software development 9 3.0
Other services 108 36.0
Total 300 100
Founder:
CEO is also founder of the company 88 29.3
CEO is not founder of the company 212 70.7
Total 300 100
In total of 300 IPO sample companies, other manufacturing and other services sectorsare the two largest sample companies with 37.7% and 36% respectively, whereas
software development sector is the least which occupied only 3% of the total samples.
In terms of founder, 70.7% of IPO sample companies have CEOs, which also the
founder, whereas CEOs of 29.3% companies are not the founder. For graphical
figures of categorical variables, see appendix 1 section b.
3.2. Bivariate Analysis - Correlations
Correlation indicates the strength of relationship between two variables. We
assess correlations among continues variables using Pearson correlation and
scatterplot, while association between continues variables and categorical variables
are assessed through analysis of variance (ANOVA) and boxplots. Association among
categorical variables is examined through chi-square test.
Correlations between Explanatory Variables and Dependent Variable
Based on statistical outputs in appendix 2 section a, correlations between
explanatory variables and dependent variable can be summarized as follows:
- IPO return has positive relationship and moderate in strength with ROCE, meansthat higher values of ROCE associate with higher values of IPO return (r=0.638).
Similarly, ownership concentration and size of company have positive
relationships with IPO return, but very weak in strength (r=0.136 and r=0.120
respectively). On the other hand, IPO return tends not to correlate with age of
company (r=-0.056). For the graphical figures, see scatterplots.
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- Company in which the CEO is also the founder tends to associate with higher IPOreturns, while company in which the CEO is not the founder tends to have lower
values of IPO returns (ANOVA test shows that these two groups of companies
have different means, p=0.000). On the other hand, higher or lower IPO returns
tends not to associate with particular industries or sectors where the companies
operate (ANOVA test has p=0.868). For the graphical figures, see boxplots.
Correlations Within Explanatory Variables
Correlations statistics within explanatory variables as shown in appendix 2,
section (b) indicate that most of explanatory variables are not correlate each other.
The exceptions are ownership concentration which has a weak negative relationship
with age of company (r=-0.318, see also scatterplot), and ROCE which has positive
association with founder where higher values on the ROCE tends to associate with
company in which the CEO is also the founder (ANOVA test has p=0.000, see also
boxplot). Later on, we will assess these correlations in multivariate analysis whether it
violates multicollinearity assumption or not.
3.3. Multivariate Analysis - Multiple Linear Regression
Since the model consists of several explanatory variables (see equation 2 in
model specification), we run multiple linear regressions to conduct the analysis.
Statistical outputs as shown in appendix 3, section (a) highlight that p-value for
regression model F-test is .000 and adjusted R-square=0.519, means explanatory
variables in the model are simultaneously account for 51.9% to explain variability in
IPO returns. Partially, size of company, ownership concentration, and founder are
statistically significant to predict IPO returns (p-values0.05),
means we find no support that different ages of company or different sectors of
industry will result in different future stock performance of IPO companies.
To capture differences in industry sectors, we create dummy variables for each
sectors of industry, as shown in equation (3).
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Again, the results (see appendix 3, section b) confirmed that all sectors or industry
have identic average value of IPO returns, indicated by insignificant p-values of all
dummy variables for industry. These insignificant outcomes, however, cannot be
interpreted in a strict sense since this report employs cross-sectional data, which has
less power to capture such differences.
Then, we rerun the model while omitting insignificant variables. The result shows
higher adjusted R-square (0.521) than the previous value (0.519), indicates that
insignificant variables are irrelevant to predict IPO returns. Hence, estimated model of
the relationships between IPO return and its explanatory variables can be expressed:
As IPO return is a linear combination of four explanatory variables in equation (4),
the model can be interpreted as follows:
- Intercept: If values of all explanatory variables in the model are zero, then IPOreturn is -29.201%.
- Slope of continues variables: If other variables in the model are fixed, then foreach change of 1 million in assets (size), then the model predicts that IPO
returns increases by 0.0004 %; If the ownership concentration increases by 1 %,
then IPO returns will increase by approximately 0.248% while holding other
variables constant; For each change of 1 % in ROCE, average increase in the
mean of IPO returns is about 0.678 % while controlling other variables constant.
- Slope of categorical variable: Company in which the CEO is also the founder hashigher IPO return average of 16.004% than company in which the CEO is not the
founder.
Testing the Assumptions of OLS Linear Regression Model
Assumption testing of OLS regression is necessary to obtain a valid model. In
this report, assumption tests include multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, normality of
residuals and model specification. The tests use STATA program and the results are
summarized as follows (Appendix 4):
- Collinearity statistics show that all variables have VIF values around 1 andtolerance values around 0.9, means multicollinearity doesnt existin the model.
- Heteroscedasticity is assessed through Whites test and Breusch-Pagan test. Bothtests confirmed that the model has heteroscedasticity problem (p-values < 0.05),
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means the variance is not homogenous. The plotted residuals is also supported the
arguments (see rvfplot).
- Normality of residuals is examined by plotting ordered values of standardizedresiduals against expected values from standard normal distribution. The plots
include kernel density plot, P-P plot (pnorm plot), and quantiles plot (qnorm plot).
The results show a slight deviation from normality. These results are also
confirmed by Shapiro-Wilk W test (p-value=0.00571). However, since we have
large samples, central limit theorem can be applied.
- Model specification is evaluated by linktest and Ramsey Reset test. Linktest showsthat predicted values squares (hatsq) is significant, means the model has a
specification error. Likewise, the Ramsey Reset test is significant, indicates that
there could be omitted variable in the model, which it should. In conclusion, both
tests indicate that the model may not be correctly specified.
Interaction Terms
Refer to estimated model in equation (4), we check whether interaction terms
between dummy variable and other explanatory variables in the model exist or not
through regress equation (5).
The results show that the effects of company size, ownership concentration, and
ROCE are higher in a company where the CEO is also the founder (p-values < 0.05).
4. Conclusion and Limitations
This report examines whether age of company, size, ownership concentration,
founder, ROCE, and industry or sectors where the company operates can predict stock
return performance of IPO companies. The major findings are summarized as follows:
- Size of company, ownership concentration, founder and ROCE are statisticallysignificant to influence the stock return of IPO companies, which account for
52.1%, while 47.9 remains unexplained. On the other hand, we find no support
that age of company and industry sectors can predict future stock performance of
IPO companies.
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- The company in which the CEO is also the founder has higheraverage of IPOreturns than the company in which the CEO is not the founder.
- The effects of company size, ownership concentration and ROCE to stock returnof IPO companies are higher in a company where the CEO is also the founder.
Having said that, this report has some limitations:
1. There may be a problem of error specification and potential omitted variable biasin the model, as the model doesnt satisfy the specification test. In addition, the
model also has a problem of heteroscedasticity.
2. Coefficient determination of the model is relatively low, and therefore it isadvisable to include other powerful explanatory variables in future empirical
research.
3. The model only employs linear approach, while real-world financial time series arelikely to have both linear and nonlinear patterns, and therefore an approach, which
combines linear-nonlinear method will produce a more precise result.
4. As the employed data is cross section, it may less accurate to capture inter-company or industry sector differences as well as intra-company or sector
dynamics. Using panel data and larger sample size will give greater capacity to
capture the complexity of the relationships, include controlling the impact of
omitted variables.
References
Bansal, R. and Khanna A., 2012. Determinants of IPOs Initial Return: Extreme
Analysis of Indian Market. Journal of Financial Risk Management, 1 (4), pp. 68-
74.
Bessler, W. and Thies, S., 2007. The long-run performance of initial public offerings
in Germany.Managerial Finance, 33 (6), pp. 420-441.
Lee, C.F., Lee, J.C. and Lee, A. C., 1999. Statistics for Business and FinancialEconomics.Singapore: World Scientific Publishing.
Ritter, J.R. and Welch, I., 2002. A Review of IPO activity, pricing and allocations.
Journal of Finance, 57(4), pp. 1795-1828.
Watsham, T.J. and Parramore, K., 1997. Quantitative Methods in Finance. Singapore:
South Western Cengage Learning.
Wooldridge, J.M., 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data.
Massachusetts: MIT Press.
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Appendix 1 - Univariate Analysis
a. Continues VariablesData Distribution
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b. Categorical Variables Data Distribution
Appendix 2Bivariate Analysis
a. Relationships between explanatory variables and dependent variable
Pearson Correlation - Continues explanatory variables and dependent variable
Correlations
Iporeturn age size con Roce
iporeturn
Pearson Correlation 1 -.056 .120* .136
* .638
**
Sig. (2-tailed) .338 .038 .018 .000
N 300 300 300 300 300
Age
Pearson Correlation -.056 1 -.009 -.318**
-.007
Sig. (2-tailed) .338 .874 .000 .910
N 300 300 300 300 300
Size
Pearson Correlation .120* -.009 1 .019 -.065
Sig. (2-tailed) .038 .874 .748 .258
N 300 300 300 300 300
Con
Pearson Correlation .136* -.318
** .019 1 -.059
Sig. (2-tailed) .018 .000 .748 .306
N 300 300 300 300 300
Roce
Pearson Correlation .638** -.007 -.065 -.059 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .910 .258 .306
N 300 300 300 300 300
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
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Scatterplots - Continues explanatory variables and dependent variable
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA):
Categorical explanatory variables and Continues dependent Variable
ANOVA - IPO return and Founder
Iporeturn
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Between Groups 40475.336 1 40475.336 62.679 .000
Within Groups 192433.990 298 645.752
Total 232909.327 299
ANOVAIPO return and Industry
Iporeturn
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Between Groups 988.124 4 247.031 .314 .868
Within Groups 231921.202 295 786.174
Total 232909.327 299
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BoxplotsCategorical explanatory variables and continues dependent variable
b. Relationships within explanatory variables
Pearson CorrelationCorrelations between Continues explanatory variables
Correlations
age size con roce
age
Pearson Correlation 1 -.009 -.318**
-.007
Sig. (2-tailed) .874 .000 .910
N 300 300 300 300
size
Pearson Correlation -.009 1 .019 -.065
Sig. (2-tailed) .874 .748 .258
N 300 300 300 300
con
Pearson Correlation -.318**
.019 1 -.059
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .748 .306
N 300 300 300 300
roce
Pearson Correlation -.007 -.065 -.059 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .910 .258 .306
N 300 300 300 300
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Scatterplots Correlations between continues explanatory variables
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Analysis of Variance (ANOVA):
Categorical explanatory variables and Continues explanatory Variables
ANOVA Founder and Continues Explanatory Variables
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
age
Between Groups 10.748 1 10.748 1.380 .241
Within Groups 2321.438 298 7.790
Total 2332.187 299
size
Between Groups 284679531.259 1 284679531.259 3.111 .079
Within Groups 27271932811.221 298 91516553.058
Total 27556612342.480 299
roce
Between Groups 8842.276 1 8842.276 15.278 .000
Within Groups 172464.640 298 578.740
Total 181306.917 299
con
Between Groups 385.340 1 385.340 1.322 .251
Within Groups 86856.910 298 291.466
Total 87242.250 299
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ANOVAIndustry and Continues Explanatory Variables
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
age
Between Groups 32.294 4 8.073 1.036 .389
Within Groups 2299.893 295 7.796Total 2332.187 299
size
Between Groups 609291110.615 4 152322777.654 1.668 .158
Within Groups26947321231.86
5295 91346851.633
Total27556612342.48
0299
roce
Between Groups 1513.115 4 378.279 .621 .648
Within Groups 179793.802 295 609.471
Total 181306.917 299
con
Between Groups 2055.916 4 513.979 1.780 .133
Within Groups 85186.334 295 288.767
Total 87242.250 299
BoxplotsCategorical explanatory variables and continues explanatory variables
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Pearson Chi-Square
Categorical explanatory variables
Chi-Square TestsFounder and Industry
Value df Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 1.561a 4 .816
Likelihood Ratio 1.483 4 .830
Linear-by-Linear Association .126 1 .723
N of Valid Cases 300
a. 2 cells (20.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is2.64.
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Appendix 3Multivariate Analysis
a. Multiple Linear RegressionAll variables
Model Summaryb
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the
Estimate
1 .727a .529 .519 19.34867
a. Predictors: (Constant), industry Industry, founder Founder, con, size, roce, age
b. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1Regression 123218.578 6 20536.430 54.856 .000
b
Residual 109690.748 293 374.371
Total 232909.327 299
a. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
b. Predictors: (Constant), industry Industry, founder Founder, con, size, roce, age
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig. Correlations Collinearity
Statistics
B Std. Error Beta Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF
1
(Constant) -36.015 8.735 -4.123 .000
Age .228 .426 .023 .534 .593 -.056 .031 .021 .883 1.133
Size .000 .000 .133 3.279 .001 .120 .188 .131 .976 1.025
Con .263 .070 .161 3.779 .000 .136 .216 .151 .885 1.130
founder 16.051 2.545 .262 6.308 .000 .417 .346 .253 .930 1.076
Roce .681 .047 .601 14.490 .000 .638 .646 .581 .934 1.071
industry .810 .778 .042 1.041 .299 -.017 .061 .042 .973 1.027
a. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
b. Multiple Linear RegressionAll variables + Dummy variables for industry sectors
Model Summaryb
Model R R Square Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error of
the Estimate
1 .729a .531 .516 19.41089
a. Predictors: (Constant), d4_sector4, age, roce, d2_sector2, size,d1_sector1, founder Founder, con, d3_sector3
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b. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 123642.326 9 13738.036 36.461 .000b
Residual 109267.001 290 376.783
Total 232909.327 299
a. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
b. Predictors: (Constant), d4_sector4, age, roce, d2_sector2, size, d1_sector1, founder Founder, con,
d3_sector3
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig. Correlations Collinearity
Statistics
B Std. Error Beta Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF
1
(Constant) -31.614 7.888 -4.008 .000
Age .211 .429 .021 .490 .624 -.056 .029 .020 .876 1.141
Size .000 .000 .131 3.178 .002 .120 .183 .128 .958 1.043
Con .253 .071 .155 3.569 .000 .136 .205 .144 .861 1.161
founder 16.276 2.564 .266 6.348 .000 .417 .349 .255 .922 1.085
Roce .679 .047 .599 14.362 .000 .638 .645 .578 .929 1.077
d1_sector1 -3.003 3.287 -.041 -.914 .362 .018 -.054 -.037 .799 1.251
d2_sector2 -1.263 5.131 -.010 -.246 .806 .031 -.014 -.010 .893 1.120
d3_sector3 -1.791 2.662 -.031 -.673 .501 -.032 -.039 -.027 .755 1.324
d4_sector4 6.061 6.846 .037 .885 .377 .049 .052 .036 .921 1.086
a. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
c. Multiple Linear RegressionInsignificant variables are excluded
Model Summaryb
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the
Estimate
1 .726a .527 .521 19.32410
a. Predictors: (Constant), roce, con, size, founder Founder
b. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
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ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 122750.220 4 30687.555 82.180 .000b
Residual 110159.106 295 373.421
Total 232909.327 299
a. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
b. Predictors: (Constant), roce, con, size, founder Founder
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig. Correlations Collinearity
Statistics
B Std.
Error
Beta Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF
1
(Constant) -29.201 3.701 -7.890 .000
Size .0003774 .000 .130 3.212 .001 .120 .184 .129 .982 1.019
Con .248 .066 .152 3.770 .000 .136 .214 .151 .990 1.010
founder 16.004 2.539 .262 6.304 .000 .417 .345 .252 .932 1.073
Roce .678 .047 .598 14.467 .000 .638 .644 .579 .938 1.066
a. Dependent Variable: iporeturn
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Appendix 4 REGRESSION ASSUMPTION TESTS (STATA OUTPUT)
NORMALITY TESTS OF RESIDUALS
. predict r, resid
. kdensity r, normal
_cons -29.20125 3.700855 -7.89 0.000 -36.48468 -21.91783
roce .6778655 .0468565 14.47 0.000 .58565 .7700809 founder 16.00441 2.538823 6.30 0.000 11.00791 21.00091
con .2478889 .0657597 3.77 0.000 .1184714 .3773064
size .0003774 .0001175 3.21 0.001 .0001462 .0006087
iporeturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 232909.325 299 778.960954 Root MSE = 19.324
Adj R-squared = 0.5206
Residual 110159.105 295 373.420696 R-squared = 0.5270
Model 122750.22 4 30687.555 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 4, 295) = 82.18
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 300
. regress iporeturn size con founder roce
_cons -36.01547 8.734635 -4.12 0.000 -53.20605 -18.82489
industry .8097259 .7780957 1.04 0.299 -.7216392 2.341091
roce .6814775 .0470294 14.49 0.000 .5889192 .7740358
founder 16.0508 2.544542 6.31 0.000 11.04291 21.0587
con .2631583 .0696444 3.78 0.000 .1260916 .400225
size .000387 .000118 3.28 0.001 .0001547 .0006192
age .2278899 .4263863 0.53 0.593 -.6112783 1.067058
iporeturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 232909.325 299 778.960954 Root MSE = 19.349
Adj R-squared = 0.5194
Residual 109690.747 293 374.371151 R-squared = 0.5290
Model 123218.578 6 20536.4297 Prob > F = 0.0000 F( 6, 293) = 54.86
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 300
. regress iporeturn age size con founder roce industry
0
.005
.01
.015
.02
.0
25
-50 0 50 100Residuals
Kernel density estimate
Normal density
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 4.9020
Kernel density estimate
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. pnorm r
. qnorm r
. swilk r
0.0
0
0.2
5
0.5
0
0.7
5
1.0
0
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Empirical P[i] = i/(N+1)
-50
0
50
100
i
l
-50 0 50
Inverse Normal
r 300 0.98621 2.938 2.529 0.00571
Variable Obs W V z Prob>z
Shapiro-Wilk W test for normal data
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HOMOSCEDASTICITY TESTS
. rvfplot, yline(0)
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
chi2(1) = 22.82
Variables: fitted values of iporeturn
Ho: Constant variance
Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity
. estat hettest
Total 42.94 18 0.0008
Kurtosis 2.40 1 0.1214
Skewness 13.58 4 0.0088
Heteroskedasticity 26.96 13 0.0126
Source chi2 df p
Cameron & Trivedi's decomposition of IM-test
. estat imtest
-50
0
50
100
-40 -20 0 20 40 60Fitted values
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MULTICOLLINEARITY TEST
MODEL SPECIFICATION TEST
. linktest
. ovtest
_cons -.8786877 1.531233 -0.57 0.567 -3.89213 2.134755
_hatsq .0092055 .001993 4.62 0.000 .0052834 .0131276
_hat .6709956 .0888404 7.55 0.000 .4961591 .845832
iporeturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 232909.325 299 778.960954 Root MSE = 18.602
Adj R-squared = 0.5558
Residual 102776.122 297 346.047549 R-squared = 0.5587
Model 130133.203 2 65066.6016 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 2, 297) = 188.03
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 300
Prob > F = 0.0001
F(3, 292) = 7.23
Ho: model has no omitted variables
Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of iporeturn
Mean VIF 1.04
con 1.01 0.989811
size 1.02 0.981521
roce 1.07 0.938088
founder 1.07 0.931615
Variable VIF 1/VIF
. vif
_cons -29.20125 3.700855 -7.89 0.000 -36.48468 -21.91783 roce .6778655 .0468565 14.47 0.000 .58565 .7700809
founder 16.00441 2.538823 6.30 0.000 11.00791 21.00091
con .2478889 .0657597 3.77 0.000 .1184714 .3773064
size .0003774 .0001175 3.21 0.001 .0001462 .0006087
iporeturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 232909.325 299 778.960954 Root MSE = 19.324
Adj R-squared = 0.5206
Residual 110159.105 295 373.420696 R-squared = 0.5270
Model 122750.22 4 30687.555 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 4, 295) = 82.18
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 300
. regress iporeturn size con founder roce
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5/28/2018 Task Report on Financial Modelling Module
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Prob > F = 0.0001
F(3, 290) = 7.29
Ho: model has no omitted variables
Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of iporeturn
. ovtest
_cons -.8816762 1.52568 -0.58 0.564 -3.88419 2.120838
_hatsq .0091313 .0019613 4.66 0.000 .0052716 .0129911
_hat .6734393 .087824 7.67 0.000 .5006033 .8462754
iporeturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 232909.325 299 778.960954 Root MSE = 18.553
Adj R-squared = 0.5581
Residual 102229.375 297 344.206649 R-squared = 0.5611
Model 130679.95 2 65339.9752 Prob > F = 0.0000 F( 2, 297) = 189.83
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 300
. linktest
_cons -36.01547 8.734635 -4.12 0.000 -53.20605 -18.82489
size .000387 .000118 3.28 0.001 .0001547 .0006192
roce .6814775 .0470294 14.49 0.000 .5889192 .7740358
industry .8097259 .7780957 1.04 0.299 -.7216392 2.341091 founder 16.0508 2.544542 6.31 0.000 11.04291 21.0587
con .2631583 .0696444 3.78 0.000 .1260916 .400225
age .2278899 .4263863 0.53 0.593 -.6112783 1.067058
iporeturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 232909.325 299 778.960954 Root MSE = 19.349
Adj R-squared = 0.5194
Residual 109690.747 293 374.371151 R-squared = 0.5290
Model 123218.578 6 20536.4297 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 6, 293) = 54.86
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 300
. regress iporeturn age con founder industry roce size