Task 1: The Language of Chance

Words and phrases

sure thing out of the question perhaps

no doubt out of reach once in a blue moon

most likely pig’s might fly possibly

impossible maybe London to a brick

safe bet no way shot in the dark

long odds come rain or shine sporting chance

long shot expected probably

low risk unlikely you’ve got Buckley’s

doubtful definitely in the bag

certain rock solid ten to one

rarely never

What do these words and phrases mean?

Origins and Meanings of the Phrases of Probability

Once in a blue moonMeaning: almost never, very seldom hardly ever

Origin: when the moon is a crescent some people say the other part has a bluish colour to it. This ‘blue moon’ is rare.

In the bagMeaning: certain of success, fixed, sure thing

Origin: Game birds were used in fighting and were taken to the where they would fight in a bag. Owners of the birds would say to other competitors that victory was ‘in the bag’ meaning they were sure to win. We still use this expression to mean we are certain of success.

Task 1: The Language of Chance

What is the chance of this happening?

Match examples of situations and events to different likelihoods e.g.• Rain today• School will finish early• A police car will go past the school with its siren going• Lunch time will be extended• Lunch bell will go on time • Your family will win lotto• Someone will away in the class because they are sick• You will fall over in the playground and hurt yourself• You will eat your lunch• You will go to bed on time• It will be cloudy tomorrow• You will eat ice-cream for dessert tonight• Your favourite football team will win the grand final this year

Which chance word or expression would you choose to represent the likelihood of these occurring? Can you think of another more suitable word? uncertain very likely very unlikely a good chanceextremely likely in the bag maybe never pig’s might fly

Task 2: Collect all the Swap Cards

The NEW brand of cereal has 6 new swap cards for you to collect. One in every packet.

Investigation: How many packets of the new cereal would you have to buy in order to get one of each swap card?

Number Frequency Total

1

2

3

4

5

6

Use the frequency table to keep a record of the results of your experiments. Numbers on the table can be changed to colours.

How many packets would you need to buy to get one of each card? _______

Conduct the experiment 20 times.

What is the average number of boxes you would need to buy?___________

Task 2: Collect all the Swap Cards

Class spreadsheet – results of group experiments ( 20 experiments)

Experiment Counters Dice Cards Spinners

1

2

3

20

Total

Average

Table needs to have a line for each number 1-20

Task 3: Lucky Number GameGood luck!

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20

Pick your favourite numbers:What chance do you think you have of picking the selected numbers?!

1 number ___________________ 2 numbers _________________

3 numbers __________________ 4 numbers _________________

Task 3: Lucky Number Game

Frequency table – numbers selected over 10 games.

Number Tally Total Fraction %

1

2

3

20

Share ideas: How could you modify the game to increase your chances of winning the game?

How to Make Your Own Spinner

Steps to follow:

1. Colour your spinner according to the given instructions.

2. Place a paperclip on the spinner in the centre of the circle. Use a pencil to hold the paperclip in place. The paperclip should be able to spin around 360 degrees.

3. Flick the paper clip and note where the paper clip lands.

Student Guide:How To Simplify Fractions

Example: Simplify 18/24

Steps to follow:

Press Display

1. 18 24 8/24

2. 18/24 S

3. 18/24 S 9/12

4. 9/12 S ¾

Note: You may need to press and more than once to get the fraction to its simplest form.

Keys used: Numerator

DenominatorSimp

Student Guide:Converting a Fraction to a %

Example: Convert 6/40 to a %

Steps to follow:

Press Display

1. 6 40 6/40

2. 6/40 %

3. 15%

Note: arrow represents cursor on display

Keys used: Numerator

DenominatorPercentage Key

Enter

Student Guide: Store to Memory and Memory Recall Keys

Steps to calculate the average/mean:

Press Display

4 x 12 4 x 12 = 48 (need a m above 12)

3 x 13 3 x 13 = 39 (need a m above 13)

4 x 14 4 x 14 = 56 (need a m above 14)

3 x 15 3 x 15 = 45 (need a m above 15 )

(Recall total) 188 (m above 188)

188 ÷ 14 = 13.4

Note: If you then press the key twice it will clear the memory.

Packets of cereal Tally Frequency

12 IIII 4

13 III 3

14 IIII 4

15 III 3