target setting for the see 2020 strategy
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Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy. Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012. Agenda. Introduction and objectives Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals Target setting for Integrated Growth Target setting for Smart Growth Target setting for Sustainable Growth - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Target setting for the SEE 2020 Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategystrategy
Sarajevo, Bosnia and HerzegovinaOctober 3rd 2012
1
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
2
Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision
SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference:
i. Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages;
ii. Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs
iii. Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development;
iv. Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all
v. Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption
A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial
3
The proposed process
Nov 2011
Apr2012
Jun2012
Sep2012
Nov2012
Vision adopted
First draft targets
Targets discussed
Second draft targets
Written procedure & third draft
SEE Min
SEE IC
SEE IC
Final draft targets
Targets adopted
SEE Min
4
1st Task Force Meeting
2nd Task Force Meeting
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
5
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
6
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
7
Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU
Source: World Bank data used for 2000-2009.Data submitted by SEE economies for 2010 only. Eurostat data used for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia due to discrepancy between national and Eurostat sources.Averages weighted by population.Data labels show the average for 2010No data submitted for Kosovo* and weights were adjusted accordingly.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
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Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU
1. Increase of GDP per Capita Relative to the EU
expressed as a percentage of EU GDP per capita
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 28.00 35.00 1.3
BiH 29.00 35-40 1.3
CRO 59.00 70.00 1.2
KOS
MKD 36.48 40-45 1.2
MNE 41.00 48-49 1.2
SER 34.00 41.00 1.2
SEE average 37.76 45.77 1.2
Weighted average based on economies' share in the total population of the region. No data was provided for Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted to reflect missing data.
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Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
Source: SEE economies provided data for 2010 baseline. World Bank data used for 2000-2009.Data not provided by Kosovo*. Montenegro only provided baseline 2010. No data for Serbia was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the sum for SEE for these years.
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Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
expressed in millions of USD
2010 2020 Multiplier NotesALB 10,188 22,000 2.2
BiH 14,024 31,978 2.3 Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources
CRO 46,909 120,000 2.6
KOS
MKD 10,312 20,000 1.9
MNE 4,080
SER 32,976 78,000 2.4
SEE 118,489 279,086 2.4
The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.
Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit
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Source: World Bank data for 2000-2009. SEE economies for 2010 baseline.Averages weighted by GDP PPP based on Eurostat 2010 dataKosovo* did not submit data for 2010 and data only available from 2000 to 2005 so the economy is not included in the average. Weights were adjusted accordingly.
Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit
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3. Reduction of Trade Deficit / Improvement of Trade Balance
expressed as percent of GDP
2010 2020 Difference Notes
ALB -21.0 -12.0 9.0
BiH -20.8 -27.0 -6.2 Deficit forecast for 2015
CRO 0.0 0.0 0.0
KOS
MKD -19.0 -17.0 2.0
MNE -28.4 -20.0 8.4
SER -17.0 -14.8 2.2
SEE -13.0 -11.8 Weighted average based on economies' share in the total GDP of the region. No data provided for Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted to reflect 6 economies and based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
13
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)
14
Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies for 2010 baseline.Years: 2004 and 2009For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€No data submitted for Kosovo* so the economy is not included in the SEE sum.
Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)
15
4. Growth of Intra-regional Trade in Goods
expressed in million EUR
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 436.0 1,526 3.5 BiH 3,185.3
CRO 3,645.0 12,000 3.3 According to the target and projections of OECD for SEE
KOS MKD 1,238.0 3,500 2.8 MNE 800.5 SER 3,202 12,003 3.7
SEE 12,507 42,983 3.4
The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.
Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
16
Source: SEE economies for 2010 baseline. World Bank data for 2000-2009. Kosovo* did not submit data.No data for Kosovo* available for 2000 to 2003 so the economy is not included in the SEE sum for these years. No data for Montenegro was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the SEE sum.
Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
17
5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows
in current USD million
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 1,049 2,966 2.8 BiH 290 763 2.6 CRO 544 1,088 2.0 KOS MKD 210 780 3.7 MNE 717 SER 1,138 2,958 2.6
SEE 3,948 9,992 2.5
The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
18
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed
19
Source: SEE economies provided data for the 2010 baseline in euros. Data from 2000-2010 World Bank.Averages weighted by populationNo data submitted by Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted accordingly.The 2020 target is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline number by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies.
Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed
20
6. Growth of GDP per Person Employed
in EUR
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 9,767 13,986 1.4 BiH 14,911 20,875 1.4
CRO 29,117 37,852 1.3 According to the target and projection of OECD for SEE
KOS MKD 16,708 21,700 1.3 MNE 14,823 SER 12,319 16,113 1.3
SEE 16,333 21,909 1.3
The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on data for population.
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
21
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Enterprise Creation
22
7. Growth of Enterprise Creation (Net)
number of companies registered in the reporting period - number of companies de-registered
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 12,504 9,700 Net company creation in 2020: 13,500 registered – 3,800 deregistered
BiH 1,608 Baseline figure refers to 2012
CRO 4,509 9,000
KOS
MKD 1,023 1,000
MNE
SER -1,914 30,000
SEE 2,643
Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita
23
Source: World BankNo data for Kosovo* and Montenegro were available so the economies are not included in the SEE sum. The 2020 target was computed by multiplying the 2010 baseline with the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies.
Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita
24
8. Growth of Exports of Goods and Services per Capita
expressed in EUR
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 1,113 2,966 2.7
BiH 952 2010 figure shows a large discrepancy with WB data - services export data most probably not included
CRO 4,008 8,002 2.0 In accordance with the agreed projectionKOS MKD 1,547 3,094 2.0 MNE 1,748 SER 1,381 3,648 2.6
SEE 1,827 4,389 2.4
The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE 2010 baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on IMF data for population.
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
25
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate
26
Source: SEE economies provided baseline data for 2010. World Bank data used for 2001 – 2009.Averages weighted by population based on World Bank 2010 population data.The regional average includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and the FYR Macedonia for all years as well as Serbia for 2005 to 2010. Weights are adjusted accordingly. Kosovo* did not provide data.
Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate
27
9. Growth of Overall Employment Rate (15+)
employment rate in the 15+ age group
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 47.00 53.00 1.1 Indirect calculation taking in the consideration employment and population growth
BiH 32.50 33.10 1.0 Forecast for 2015CRO 46.60 55.00 1.2 KOS MKD 38.70 42-45 1.1 MNE 40.30 SER 37.90 42.30 1.1
SEE 40.20 44.78 1.1
The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE 2010 baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on IMF data for population.
Inclusive Growth: Increase Rate of Population with Tertiary Education
28
10. Increase of Rate of Population With Tertiary Education
per cent of population 30-34 years old - census data or other sources
2010 2020 MultiplierNotes
ALB 8.85 15.00 1.7 Indirect calculation taking into consideration average student graduation increasing by 1% annually
BiH 8.20 Per cent of working age populationCRO 24.30 35.00 1.4 KOS MKD 17.10 MNE 23.60 SER 23.00 38.50 1.7 SEE 17.96
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
29
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness
30
Source: World BankYear: 2010The average is a simple average of the economies’ scores.
Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness
31
11. Increase Government Effectiveness
Score on the World Bank Institute index is transformed into a score between 0 to 5. Original scores are on a scale between -2.5 and 2.5.
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 2.23 2.68 1.2
BiH 1.77 2.12 1.2
CRO 3.12 3.74 1.2
KOS 1.90 2.28 1.2
MKD 2.32 2.78 1.2
MNE 2.58 3.10 1.2
SER 2.40 2.88 1.2
SEE 2.33 2.80 1.2 The SEE average is a simple average of the economies' scores (ranging between 0 and 5).
Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention
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AnnexAnnex
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Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Servicesexpressed in million USD
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 10,188 22,000 2.2
BiH 14,024 21,177 1.5 Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources; Forecasted figure is for 2015
CRO 46,909 120,000 2.6 KOS MKD 10,312 20,000 1.9 MNE 4,080 SER 32,976 78,000 2.4
SEE sum 118,489 265,773 2.2
The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.
Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
35
5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows
in current USD million
2010 2020 Multiplier Notes
ALB 1,049 2,966 2.8 BiH 290 470 1.6 FDI forecast for 2015 in EURCRO 544 1,088 2.0 KOS MKD 210 780 3.7 MNE 717 SER 1,138 2,958 2.6
SEE 3,948 9,411 2.4
The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.