tanker investments ltd. reports fourth quarter and annual 2015 presentation

9
Fourth Quarter of 2015 Earnings Presentation February 18, 2016

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Page 1: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

Fourth Quarter

of 2015 Earnings

Presentation February 18, 2016

Page 2: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

2

This presentation contains forward-looking statements which reflect management’s current views with

respect to certain future events and performance, including statements regarding: the crude oil and

refined product tanker market fundamentals, including the balance of supply and demand in the tanker

market; the expectation that the Company will generate strong cash flow; the Company’s financial

position and intention to return excess capital to shareholders; and the expected effect of any

acquisitions on the Company’s financial results. The following factors are among those that could cause

actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks and

uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: changes in the

production of or demand for oil; changes in trading patterns significantly affecting overall vessel

tonnage requirements; greater or less than anticipated levels of tanker newbuilding orders and

deliveries or greater or less than anticipated rates of tanker scrapping; changes in applicable industry

laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws and regulations; changes in interest

rates and the financial markets; delays in the delivery of any new vessels; increases in the Company's

expenses, including any dry docking expenses and associated off-hire days; and other factors

discussed in Tanker Investments Ltd.’s filings from time to time with the Financial Supervisory Authority

of Norway. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any

updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the

Company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on

which any such statement is based.

Forward Looking Statements

Page 3: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

3

• Q4-15 Results

○ Reported net income of USD 28.5 million, or USD 0.79 per share

○ Generated USD 45.9 million of cash flow from vessel operations1

○ Repurchased 3.24 million shares for USD 38.9 million; initial USD 60 million

authorization completed in early-January, 2016

○ Incurred higher OPEX than expected due to:

- Restocking of consumables and spares, and machinery repairs required

on the Suezmaxes acquired in mid-2015

- Higher repair costs related to certain machinery and deck hardware on

two vessels

• Completed the sale of two, 2010-built VLCCs for USD 155 million

○ Delivered to buyers on 19 and 20 of January 2016

• Announced the authorization of another USD 60 million share

repurchase plan; have repurchased 1.48 million shares in past week.

• Q1-16 tanker rates to-date booked in-line with strong rates achieved in

Q1-15 1 Cash flow from vessel operations (CFVO) represents income from vessel operations before depreciation and amortization expense. Cash flow from vessel operations is a non-GAAP

financial measure used by certain investors to measure the financial performance of shipping companies. Please refer to Appendix B of the Q4-15 earnings release for the reconciliation of this non-GAAP measure as used in this release to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.

Recent Highlights

Page 4: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

4

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

USD

/day

2015 Crude Tanker Rates

Suezmax Aframax

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Aframax

Suezmax

Annual Average Crude Tanker Rates

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

Source: 90% Clarksons

Strong tanker market in 2015 was driven by:

• Low crude tanker fleet growth of ~2%

• 1.0 mb/d increase in OPEC crude oil production led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq

• 5-year high global oil demand growth of 1.7 mb/d

• Strong refining margins, strategic & commercial stockpiling, and lower bunker

prices were all driven by the lowest crude oil prices seen in 11 year (averaging

$52 / bbl)

2015: Strongest Crude Tanker Rates in 7 Years Low fleet growth and surging demand gave rise to rate volatility

Page 5: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

5

Fundamentals Continue to be Strong in 2016

93.5

94.0

94.5

95.0

95.5

96.0

96.5

97.0

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016

Millio

n b

bl /

day

Rising Global Oil Demand

Source: IEA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2016 Stockbuild Storage Capacity

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

2016 Stock build vs. Spare Storage Capacity

New Capacity -China

New Capacity -Other

Available US Storage

Source: IEA

• Global oil demand is expected to grow by ~1.2 mb/d

• Increase in crude trade volumes due to rising OPEC supply (Iran +0.5 mb/d)

• Inefficiencies in port infrastructures will lead to ullage delays / floating storage, creating

market volatility and tightening available tonnage lists

High oil supply leading to low oil prices are driving tanker demand

Page 6: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

6

New Trade Opportunities for Mid-Size Tankers

US crude exports will likely be

arbitrage driven to Europe, where

older refineries desire light sweet

crude

WAF / N.Sea crude cheaper for USAC

refiners when WTI-Brent spread narrows

Condensate / product to

Asia

(Aframax / LR2 once

Panama Canal expansion is

complete in Q2-2016)

WAF – Asia movements

as Chinese buyers continue to

diversity supply regions

Changing trade patterns increases freight rate volatility

Page 7: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

7

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Nu

mb

er

of

Ve

sse

ls

Suezmax Fleet Growth

Scrapping Forecast Scrapped Delivery Forecast Delivered Net Fleet Growth (% of Fleet)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017E

% F

leet

Gro

wth

Aframax & LR2 Fleet Growth

70

18

7

43

14

0102030405060708090

Nu

mb

er

of

Ve

sse

ls

Suezmax Orderbook vs. 15+ Fleet

15 Years 16-18 Years 19 Years 20+ Years

Orderbook Existing Fleet 15+ years

124

45

15

93

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Nu

mb

er

of

Ve

sse

ls

Aframax & LR2 Orderbook vs. 15+ Fleet

Orderbook Existing Fleet 15+ years

Rising Fleet Growth… But orderbook remains lower than aging fleet

Page 8: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

8

Q1-16 Spot Earnings Update

Suezmax Aframax LR2

Q1-16 % booked

to-date 65% 65% 50%

$26,627 $25,677

$21,884

$38,825

$32,189

$28,473

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Suezmax Aframax RSA LR2

Q4-14 Actual Q4-15 Actual

$39,451

$31,058

$24,666

$40,800

$28,850 $26,750

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Suezmax Aframax RSA LR2

Q1-15 Actual Q1-16 to-date

Page 9: Tanker Investments Ltd. Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 Presentation

9

kr 0.0

kr 5.0

kr 10.0

kr 15.0

kr 20.0

kr 25.0

kr 30.0

kr 35.0

kr 40.0

kr 45.0

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000

An

nu

al C

AD

/sh

are

(NO

K)

Aframax Tanker Rates ($ per day)

Well-positioned to Generate Strong Cash Flow

Break-even rate, after

interest expense & drydock:

~$12,600/day

10-yr avg. Aframax

rate $28,000/day

Note: Above calculations on an Aframax Equivalent basis: VLCCs at 1.4x, Suezmaxes at 1.2x; CAD, or Cash Available for Distribution represents Cash Flow from Vessel Operations less interest expense

and drydock amortization; Assumes exchange rate of 8.49 USD to NOK.

Cash yield at

10-yr avg.

Aframax spot

tanker rates

and stock price

of NOK 82

35%

Operating leverage

• Tanker Investments no longer pursuing additional vessel acquisitions ○ Significant operating leverage to tanker market remains after sale of VLCCs

○ Excess capital to be returned to shareholders in the form of share buybacks or dividends