tanker insight -...

© Drewry | Publications01

2007 2006 2007 Aug Sep

Vlcc 45,846 30,381 20,767 17,633

Suezmax 47,567 35,833 16,100 14,800

Aframax 34,294 30,819 10,567 15,633

Panamax 24,567 26,989 25,900 25,100

Product LR 25,242 23,489 24,200 21,100

Product MR 14,183 19,833 10,450 7,600

Radarwatch

Drewry Tanker Earnings Index

TCE Rates ($pd)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Index (Jan 00 = 100)Average (of months shown)

Sep 07Sep 06Sep 05

Summary 01

Oil Focus 02

Fleet Focus 03

Vlcc 04

Suezmax 05

Aframax 06

Panamax 07

Product Tankers 08

Financials 10

Market Summaries 11

Contacts 13

Methodology Notes 13

cont

ents

Global economic activity remains steady with firm growth rates noted in financial and commodity markets

Global crude oil stocks are low

NOAA anticipates a cooler winter season

for US this year necessitating higher

imports

Crude runs in Atlantic basin might remain constrained by heavy October maintenances and

tight refining margins

Field maintenances are likely to limit supply from Abu

Dhabi in November, counterbalancing the

increase in Opec supply

issue

50october 07

Spot markets loosing up on activity

Though oil demand in 2007 is forecast to rise by 1.8% over 2006 (according to the IEA), the tanker spot markets so far have registered a decline in chartering volumes (in particular in the Arabian Gulf region), presumably on account of a combination of reduced output from the Opec members and an increase in trade on term charters, besides rising pipeline trade. Chartering volumes in the spot markets, so far this year, have totalled 669.7m tonnes, in comparison to a total of 705.0m tonnes and 756.6m tonnes fixed over the same period in 2006 and 2005 respectively. Regionwise total FSU crude exports rose by 12.7% y-o-y, to an average 6.4m bpd during 1H07, with significant increases coming from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline system. Exports of Azeri crudes via BTC have risen steadily since the pipeline began operating in mid-2006. Crude exports via the pipeline averaged 639,000 bpd in June, up 580,000 bpd from June 2006 exports. Between January and June, exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium averaged 710,000 bpd, up 9.5% from 1H06. In contrast, activity in the time charter market has increased this year from last, with owners hiring a total of 24.3m dwt of tonnage since the start of the year, as compared to 19.5m dwt chartered during January-September a year ago. This trend in activity levels correlates well with the trend in freight rates in the respective markets - while rates in the tanker spot markets have declined significantly by about an average 35-40.0% y-o-y (with average earnings on benchmark routes down by about 45-50.0% against 2006), charter rates in the term market have remained relatively firm this year, falling by an average of only 8.5% y-o-y.

Our view

Increasing volatility in the spot markets has acted as an incentive for both the owners and charterers to enter the term charter market, so as to fix earnings and expenditures – a trend which is likely to persist. Furthermore, with more pipeline projects expected to come online in the next few years, the share of the volume of crude cargoes fixed in the spot markets is likely to come under pressure.

Tanker Ins ightM o n t h l y A n a l y s i s o f t h e T a n k e r M a r k e t

Market BarometerMarket Barometer

WEAK

STRONG

MARKET DIRECTIONBased on Drewry Hire Index

Previous

Current

MARKET POSITION

Products Oil Prices $/bbl

oil focus

2006 2007(1) 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07(P)

Oil Demand 84.50 85.92 85.63 84.54 85.71

Oil Supply 85.16 85.72 85.24 84.95 85.70

Opec 34.32 35.48 34.99 34.99 35.37

Saudi Arabia 8.93 8.47 8.34 8.37 8.42

Non-Opec 50.84 50.02 50.26 49.96 49.44

FSU 12.10 12.58 12.55 12.50 12.53

Stock Change 0.66 -0.20 -0.39 0.41 -0.01

(1) IEA, Drewry Estimate for the Year (P) Provisional Data

World Oil Market (Mbpd)

Market Indicators

Crude Oil Prices $/bbl

Low High


US Product Stocks (mbbl)US Crude Oil Stocks (mbbl)

legend Position Rising Falling Static

Oil demand

Oil supply

Oil prices

Oil stocks

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insightoctober 07

Soaring crude prices

Oil prices set on a run of new records during the first half of the month, escalating from around $75/bbl at the start of the month to a record $84.02/bbl (for benchmark WTI) by 20th September, discounting the fact that Opec has announced to increase output by 0.5m bpd in November.

Tightening fundamentals continued to back oil price hikes. While oil stocks (normally) are meant to build up in the post-summer period, when product demand falls and Atlantic basin refiners shutdown for maintenances, the total oil stocks in the US declined (though marginally) by 1.1m barrels over the month, to 1,021.4m barrels by end-September. When compared to last year, end-month oil stocks in the US pegged lower by 73.5m barrels. Japanese crude stocks also declined steadily through September (despite refinery run cuts), putting inventories at 98.0m barrels in the first week of October - the lowest in 18 months. Growing confrontations between Iran and the US, Nigerian rebel threats and hurricane-led concerns (in the US Gulf) led to an increased speculative activity, adding a fear premium to the oil markets.

In the near term, oil prices are likely to remain above $75/bbl as it is feared that Opec supply increase of 0.5m bpd is unlikely to keep up with the growth in oil demand, which is expected to remain firm upon forecasts of a colder winter season this year (NOAA has predicted that temperatures this winter will be 1.3% cooler than last year). Moreover, the recent interest rate cut by the US Fed Reserve has eased credit availability (making US dollar cheaper against other currencies), and in turn boosted investors’ sentiments & investment funds in the oil markets.

Opec Basket PriceDubaiWTI

Brent Gasoil Gasoline

250

275

300

325

350

375 US Crude Oil Stocks

MIN

MAX

Sep 07Jun 07Mar 07Dec 06Sep 06

5 YEAR RANGE

175

200

225

250 US Gasoline Stocks

MIN

MAX


5 YEAR RANGE

0

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40

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120

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MAX


5 YEAR RANGE

0102030405060708090

MIN

MAX


5 YEAR RANGE

fleet focus


Total Tanker Fleet: September 2007

Tanker Demand Index New Orders & Orderbook % Fleet (Dwt)

108

109

110

111

112

113Index Jan02 = 100Average (period shown)

Aug 07May 07Feb 07Nov 06Aug 06


Size Existing Fleet* 2007 2008 2009 2010+ Total % of Fleet

('000 dwt) No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt Dwt

10-50 832 28,549 39 1,585 79 3,563 78 3,461 44 2,061 240 10,671 37.4

50-80 413 27,478 22 1,480 66 4,220 77 5,036 50 2,909 215 13,645 49.7

80-120 735 75,261 13 1,414 73 7,983 109 11,975 86 9,542 281 30,914 41.1

120-200 358 54,164 7 1,121 20 3,143 57 8,999 55 8,659 139 21,922 40.5

200-320 499 145,782 8 2,438 34 10,341 64 19,685 53 16,043 159 48,507 33.3

320+ 6 2,410 1 320 3 960 5 1,600 6 1,920 15 4,800 199.2

Total 2,843 333,645 90 8,359 275 30,210 390 50,757 294 41,134 1,049 130,459 39.1

Total Tanker Fleet & Orderbook: September 2007Orderbook

Size Total

('000 dwt) No. Dwt Fleet Size

10-50 832 28,549

50-80 413 27,478

80-120 735 75,261

120-200 358 54,164

200-320 499 145,782

320+ 6 2,410

Total 2,843 333,645

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Fast expanding fleet size

The tanker orderbook continued to decline from 1,057 vessels (of 131.1m dwt) in August to 1,049 tankers (of 130.5m dwt) in September.

So far this year, a total of 170 tankers of 18.8m dwt have entered the trading fleet, in comparison to 155 tankers of 16.2m dwt delivered over the same period of 2006. Demolitions of around 59 tankers (of 2.8m dwt), though higher from last year, have also not been significant enough to slow the growth in the fleet size. As a result, the tanker fleet has been growing at an average 0.51% m-o-m (in dwt terms) during 2007, in comparison to the monthly 0.35% growth during 2006.

* Actual fleet less 10-50,000 dwt crude tankers built before 1st July 1975

32

34

36

38

40

42

Orderbook (Right axis)

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4

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8

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14

New Orders

Sep 07Jul 07May 07Mar 07Jan 07Nov 06Sep 06

Fleet Age Profile and Orderbook Delivery Schedule (M dwt)

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60Orderbook: M dwt

320,000+200-320,000120-200,00080-120,00050-80,00010-50,000

12+1110090807060504030201009998979695949392919089888786858483828180797877<=760

100

200

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400

500

Fleet: No. of Vessels (Right axis)Orderbook: No. of Vessels (Right axis)

vlcc200,000+dwt

Market Indicators

Vlcc Asset Monitor

Vlcc Demand

Vlcc Fleet Development - m dwt

Low High


114

116

118

120

122

124 Index Jan02 = 100Average (period shown)


Sep 2007 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr)Cost - $M 139.0 131.0

Operating Costs $pd 9,060 9,060

Required TC Rate - for 10% IRR $pd 60,100 51,000

Current Rate - T/C $pd 53,000 53,000

Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 8.52% 10.66%

Sensitivity (+/- $1,000 T/C rate) 0.22% 0.33%

Investment Returns

Vlcc Rates ($pd)

2006 2007

2007 Avg Avg Jul Aug Sep

AG-Japan (TCE) 47,317 33,411 31,100 24,600 21,600

AG-S. Korea (TCE) 43,700 28,978 22,200 20,400 18,400

AG-N. Europe (TCE) 47,864 28,756 22,400 17,300 12,900

Average (TCE) 45,846 30,381 25,233 20,767 17,633

Time Charter (1yr) 55,992 52,667 54,500 54,500 53,000

Time Charter (3yr) 48,617 46,811 49,000 49,500 49,500


Actual Sales

Rates

Demand

Supply

New orders

Orderbook

Scrapping

SH sales

NB prices

SH values

AGE (years)255 10 15 200

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-0.2-0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4

Deletions Deliveries

Sep 07Jul 07May 07Mar 07Jan 07141142143144145146147148149

Fleet (Right axis)

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40

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120

160

2002004 PeakBase1994 Trough

Sep

May

May

Jul

Jul JulAug

Aug

Aug

AugMay

Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values

2006 2007 2007 Avg Avg Jul Aug Sep

NB Price - $M 124.9 133.1 137.5 138.0 139.0

SH Price (5yr) - $M 116.2 121.8 134.0 133.0 131.0

SH 5yr % of NB 93.0% 91.5% 97.5% 96.4% 94.2%

Scrap Value - $M 14.2 17.4 18.9 19.2 19.2

Robust deliveries, outpacing demand

With average worldscale spot rates for the benchmark route, AG-Japan, pegging at WS63 over the period January-September in 2007 (lower by about WS34 points from the average rates over the same period of 2006), the average time charter equivalents are down by about 36.7% y-o-y to roughly $33,400pd in 2007. This decline in the spot markets appears to be an offshoot of the robust increase in the fleet size, which has outpaced the demand for tonnage in the wake of low chartering activity in the spot markets. This year so far, a total of 6.5m dwt has been delivered in the Vlcc segment, in comparison to just 5.8m dwt delivered over the whole of 2006. In contrast, according to the fixtures database, a total volume of 252.5m tonnes of crude cargoes have been fixed for loading ex-Arabian Gulf so far this year, lower by 22.1m tonnes from same period last year, creating an environment of an imbalanced supply-demand equation. However, with considerably low global oil stocks, rates are expected to recover (albeit gradually) in the near term amid expectations of increased output from the Opec and firm global economic growth in view of normal winter temperatures.

suezmax120-200,000dwt

Suezmax Asset Monitor

Suezmax Demand Index

Suezmax Fleet Development - m dwt


106

108

110

112

114 Index Jan02=100Average (period shown)


Investment Returns

0

40

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120

160


Market Indicators

Low High


Suezmax Rates ($pd)


Med-Med (TCE) 52,833 38,167 21,300 15,100 12,800

W. Afr-Car/USES (TCE) 42,300 33,500 27,900 17,100 16,800

Average (TCE) 47,567 35,833 24,600 16,100 14,800

Time Charter (1yr) 42,667 43,278 45,000 45,000 43,000

Time Charter (3yr) 37,158 37,933 39,000 39,000 38,000

Actual Sales

Rates

Demand

Supply

New orders

Orderbook

Scrapping

SH sales

NB prices

SH values

AGE (years)

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Sep 2007 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr)

Cost - $M 88.0 91.5

Operating Costs $pd 7,220 7,220

Required TC Rate - for 10% IRR $pd 39,500 36,500

Current Rate - T/C $pd 43,000 43,000

Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 11.08% 12.99%

Sensitivity (+/- $1,000 T/C rate) 0.31% 0.45%

-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.2



52

53

54

55

Fleet (Right axis)

255 10 15 200

May

MayMay

Jun

Jun

Jun

SepSep

SepSep

JulJun

Apr



New Building Price $M 75.5 83.5 86.0 87.0 88.0

SH Price (5yr) $M 76.2 85.0 92.0 92.0 91.5

SH 5yr % of NB 101.1% 101.7% 107.0% 105.7% 104.0%

Scrap Value $M 10.1 12.4 13.5 13.8 13.8

Stable rates for Suezmax tankers

Notwithstanding the firm recovery in Suezmax rates for a few routes, the market for most of the benchmark routes tended to move sideways during the month.

· The upside potential from stable activity in the West African market was cut short in view of the ample tonnage availability. Freight rates for voyages to the US Gulf thus remained almost unchanged at an average WS79.

· Freight rates for Cross-Med voyages also performed in a similar fashion on account of a slowdown in activity in the region (the total volume of Suezmax cargoes loading ex-Mediterranean ports declined to 2.4m tonnes in September, against 3.7m tonnes in August).

· In contrast, the total volume of Suezmax sized crude cargoes loading ex-NW Europe increased to 3.4m tonnes in September, against 2.8m tonnes in August. In tandem, rates for vessels doing intra-regional trade in northwest Europe improved by 20.5% m-o-m, to WS100.

aframax80-120,000dwt

Aframax Asset Monitor

Aframax Fleet Development - m dwt


Investment Returns

Market Indicators

Low High


Aframax Demand Index

98

100

102

104



Aframax Rates ($pd)


Med-Med (TCE) 29,383 26,822 16,900 8,100 12,200

NWE-NWE (TCE) 40,475 35,167 32,800 11,600 19,800

Caribs-USES (TCE) 33,025 30,467 32,400 12,000 14,900

Average (TCE) 34,294 30,819 27,367 10,567 15,633

Time Charter (1yr) 35,150 32,911 33,500 34,500 33,000

Time Charter (3yr) 28,183 29,333 28,500 29,000 29,000

0

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160


Actual Sales

Rates

Demand

Supply

New orders

Orderbook

Scrapping

SH sales

NB prices

SH values

AGE (years)

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insightoctober 07

AprJun

Jun

Jul

Jul

JulJun

JunSep

SepSep

May

May

MayAug

May

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71

72

73

74

75

76

Fleet (Right axis)

255 10 15 200

Sep 2007 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) (10yr)Cost $M 71.0 68.0 57.5

Operating Costs $pd 6,745 6,745 6,745

Required TC Rate - for 10% IRR $pd 32,800 28,450 26,800

Current Rate - T/C $pd 33,000 33,000 22,000

Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 10.08% 12.81% 6.11%

Sensitivity (+/- $1,000 T/C rate) 0.39% 0.61% 0.85%




SH Price (5yr) $M 62.5 65.8 68.5 68.5 68.0

SH 5yr % of NB 99.5% 97.9% 100.0% 97.9% 95.8%

Scrap Value $M 8.8 11.0 12.1 11.8 11.9

Improving freight market conditions

Having bottomed out last month, rates across the majority of trade routes in the Aframax markets improved this month, against rising activity levels. The Aframax market in the US Gulf benefited from hurricane warnings and terrorist attacks (in Mexico), which delayed tonnage supply in the region. As a result, rates for vessels doing upcoast voyages improved by WS10 points m-o-m, to WS115. In the Mediterranean market, activity rose with the volume of crude cargoes fixed in September equating to 8.4m tonnes, up 1.5m tonnes from August. The average rates for Cross-Med voyages improved by WS12 points over last month, to WS106. In northern Europe, the end of maintenances at North Sea oil fields and increased Russian crude exports (ahead of the 1st October hike in export tariff) boosted activity in the Aframax market. Rates for intra-regional voyages in the region rose to WS104, up by WS17 points over the month. Time charter equivalents for vessels on the route rose by 70.7% from last month, to $19,800pd. With improving prospects in the freight markets, activity in the secondhand market also rose to a total of six tankers of 0.6m dwt being traded over the month, up by 0.4m dwt against last month.

panamax50-80,000dwt

Panamax Asset Monitor

Panamax Demand Index

Panamax Fleet Development - m dwt


98

100

102

104



0

40

80

120

160


AGE (years)

Investment Returns

Market Indicators

Low High


Panamax Rates ($pd)


Car-USES (TCE) 32,908 33,967 29,900 25,900 25,100

NWE-Car/USES (TCE) 16,225 20,267 n/a n/a n/a

Average 24,567 28,233 29,900 25,900 25,100

Time Charter* (1yr) 29,100 28,133 29,000 30,000 27,500

Time Charter* (3yr) 25,700 26,078 27,000 27,000 26,500

Actual Sales

Rates

Demand

Supply

New orders

Orderbook

Scrapping

SH sales

NB prices

SH values

Apr

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insightoctober 07

Sep 2007 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) (10yr)

Cost $M 59.5 57.5 47.0






-0.2

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0.4

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0.8



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26

27

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Fleet (Right axis)

255 10 15 200




SH Price (5yr) $M 47.9 53.8 57.5 57.5 57.5

SH 5yr % of NB 99.9% 99.6% 101.8% 97.5% 96.6%

Scrap Value $M 6.4 8.0 8.8 8.6 8.7

Freight market woes

In accordance with the general lull in the tanker market, the Panamax sector noted a marginal dip in earnings this month despite an increase in activity across the Atlantic basin. The Panamax sized cargoes out of Caribs recorded a firm rise in activity (which tallied to 0.8m tonnes) against 0.5m tonnes registered in August. Activity out of NW Europe finished a little above 0.7m tonnes, in comparison to 0.6m tonnes fixed last month.

The charter of the 2003 built Blue Dolphin (72,365 dwt) to unknown charterers for 12 months at a modest $26,750pd also highlighted the slump in the market. At last go, the time charter market is estimated to have cooled off by an average 7-8% over last month’s levels of $30,000pd for a 70-75,000 dwt of five years, fixed for a 12 month duration.

The only saving grace was the asset resale market, which noted robust activity. Ahrenkiel was involved in an en-bloc sale of five 2007 built, 73,000 dwt LR tankers to Ocean Tankers for a firm $337.5m. Schoeller Holdings also sold the 2008 built Cape Taft (73,000 dwt) and 2009 built Cape Talara (73,000 dwt) to OSG for $125m en-bloc.

* For 5 year old vessel

US Gasoline Production & Imports (mbpd)

© Drewry | Publications

08

Size Existing Fleet 2007 2008 2009 2010+ Total % of Fleet

('000 dwt) No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt Dwt

10-25 103 1,628 4 43 2 20 3 45 1 13 10 122 7.5

25-50 527 21,521 33 1,518 73 3,355 75 3,416 43 2,048 224 10,337 48.0

50-80 249 16,490 22 1,480 58 3,651 64 4,096 45 2,531 189 11,758 71.3

80+ 155 15,804 2 219 15 1,679 31 3,448 31 3,488 79 8,835 55.9

Total 1,034 55,444 61 3,260 148 8,705 173 11,005 120 8,080 502 31,051 56.0

The Product Tanker Fleet & Orderbook: September 2007

Orderbook

Arbitrage Differential ($/bbl)

Product Imports OECD (Mt)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 PacificEuropeNorth America

Jun 07Apr 07Feb 07Dec 06Oct 06Aug 06Jun 06

product focusDrewry Product Earnings Index

100

150

200

250

300 IndexAverage (period shown)


8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6Production

Sep 07Jul 07May 07Mar 07Jan 07Nov 06Sep 060.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6Imports (Right axis)

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insightoctober 07

Dull activity leads to weaker rates

With refineries closed for maintenances in Asia Pacific, product tanker trades on the East of Suez trade lanes remained dull through the better part of the month. As a result, rates slid by about 7-9% for LR tankers doing AG-Japan. Demand from US Gulf refineries was also hampered early during the month, when three oil refineries in Port Arthur shut down due to severe outage at the area’s electric utility in the aftermath of Hurricane Humberto. The closure included the Motiva refinery which produces 285,000 bpd. Activity recovered somewhat towards the end of the month; however the excess available tonnage supply resulted in an overall decline of 10-15% in freight rates for MR tankers trading in the Caribbean Sea. Looking ahead, both these regions are expected to witness firmer rates next month, as refineries come out of maintenances and start re-building heating oil stocks prior to the winter season.

Activity in the asset market in contrast remained robust especially in the newbuilding arena which registered new orders to the tune of 0.95m dwt this month. Of mention are the block orders by Capital Ship management (~12) and Arne Blystad (~8) for 25,000 dwt vessels at Samho Tongyoung yard at $42.0m each, basis delivery in 2010. Amongst the deals done in the S&P market, Fukujin Kisen sold the 2004 built sister vessels Nord Strait and Nord Sound (45,934 dwt each) to Koenig for $104m en-bloc.

-5

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25NWE - NYH Jet/KeroNWE - NYH Gasoline


LR Asset Monitor

Clean Demand Index

Handy Fleet Development - m dwt


70

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MR Investment Returns

Market Indicators

Low High


Product Tanker Rates ($pd)

Actual Sales

product tankers

2006 2007 2007 Avg Avg Jul Aug SepTCE

Med-Med (25-35,000 dwct) 17,375 18,678 13,700 8,600 4,600

Sing-Japan (25-35,000 dwct) 13,117 8,978 8,800 7,400 7,600

Car-USES (25-35,000 dwct) 19,917 20,622 18,100 10,700 8,400

Med-NWE (25-35,000 dwct) 8,450 19,044 12,900 10,200 6,800

NWE-USES (35-40,000 dwct) 13,392 23,183 n/a n/a n/a

AG-Japan (50-60,000 dwct) 25,242 23,489 23,700 24,200 21,100

AG-Japan (70-80,000 dwct) 23,975 17,022 13,700 18,300 13,400

Time Charter (1yr)

Handy 21,417 22,361 23,000 23,500 22,750

MR 26,792 25,306 26,750 27,000 26,000

LR1 23,225 22,583 22,750 23,000 22,500

Time Charter (3yr)

Handy 19,100 20,244 20,000 21,000 20,500

MR 21,675 22,111 24,000 24,000 23,000

Rates

Demand

Supply

New orders

Orderbook

Scrapping

SH sales

NB prices

SH values

AGE (years)

Sep

SepSepApr

AprJun Jun

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Sep 2007 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) (10yr)Cost $M 51.0 51.0 40.0






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29

30

Fleet (Right axis)

255 10 15 200


2006 2007 2007 Avg Avg Jul Aug SepNew Building Price $M Handy 40.0 41.0 42.0 42.5 43.0

MR 46.8 48.4 50.0 50.5 51.0

LR1 48.0 54.0 56.5 59.0 59.5

SH Price (5yr) $M

Handy 37.6 39.6 41.5 41.5 41.0

MR 47.1 49.6 52.0 52.0 51.0

LR1 47.9 53.8 57.5 57.5 57.5

SH 5yr % of NB

Handy 94.0% 96.5% 98.8% 97.6% 95.3%

MR 100.7% 102.4% 104.0% 103.0% 100.0%

LR1 99.9% 99.6% 101.8% 97.5% 96.6%

Scrap Value $M

Handy 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7

MR 5.1 6.3 6.9 6.7 6.8

LR1 6.4 8.0 8.8 8.6 8.7

financials


Tanker Stocks - Snapshot

Earnings for 10% IRR ** for Newbuild & Secondhand Vessels

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** For IRR assumptions : refer to page 13

Three most active companies - by the number of shares traded in the last week irrespective of the price and market cap

Vlcc Earnings ($pd)

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

75,000

TC rate NB* SH-5yr*

SepAugJul3Q072Q071Q074Q063Q06* Required rate for 10% IRR

Suezmax Earnings ($pd)

2007

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

TC rate NB*SH-5yr*


Aframax Earnings ($pd)

2007

0

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30,000

40,000

TC rate NB*SH-5yr*


Panamax Earnings ($pd)

2007

0

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20,000

30,000

40,000

TC rate NB*SH-5yr*


2007

Company Country Price* % Monthly 52 Week 52 Week P/E Last week Market CapChange High Low Ratio Avg Vol (M USD)

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S Denmark 70,700.00 1.29% 74,100.00 48,200.00 16.86 677 59,363

B&H Ocean Carriers USA 17.08 1.67% 19.60 13.51 10.83 920 133

Berlian Laju Tankers, PT Indonesia 1,950.00 30.87% 2,200.00 1,170.00 7.85 25,553,400 868

Bonheur ASA Norway 252.00 -0.79% 310.00 194.00 8.77 4,112 1,862

Brostrom Sweden 70.00 1.45% 80.75 59.00 8.17 120,111 692

Concordia Maritime AB Sweden 39.00 -5.57% 58.00 38.50 35.87 28,623 299

Euronav Navigation** Belgium 22.27 -3.55% 28.62 21.60 7.27 78,418 1,685

Fisher, James & Sons PLC UK 632.00 -4.17% 688.00 487.00 26.41 33,566 647

Frontline Ltd Norway 266.00 -0.93% 306.00 175.95 6.27 922,757 3,701

Frontline Ltd USA 48.88 6.17% 53.09 27.82 5.91 1,178,020 3,440

GangerRolf, AS Norway 228.50 -3.18% 283.00 174.00 9.76 9,669 1,502

General Maritime USA 28.08 11.21% 45.33 22.24 11.60 367,320 926

HumpussIntermoda Transportasi Tbk Indonesia 820.00 -48.43% 900.00 225.00 25.43 33,357 n/a

IM Skaugen Norway 55.00 1.85% 59.00 40.00 35.30 6,975 267

Knightsbridge Tankers USA 27.68 10.63% 34.00 22.12 11.68 124,963 458

Kyoei Tanker Japan 558.00 27.11% 762.00 274.00 33.12 506,000 190

Mitsui OSK Lines Japan 1,859.00 13.70% 1,907.00 833.00 27.34 10,274,200 19,387

Navigazione Montanari SpA Italy 3.33 -3.48% 4.49 3.16 n/a 194,193 578

Nepline Bhd Malaysia 0.25 -10.71% 0.40 0.20 n/a 4,860 5

Nordic AmericanTanker Shipping USA 38.58 3.24% 44.16 31.00 11.87 309,660 1,158

NYK Lines Japan 1,134.00 1.16% 1,276.00 707.00 36.46 7,549,600 11,915

Overseas Shipholding Group Inc USA 76.64 8.45% 91.49 53.96 9.75 781,960 2,538

Taiheiyo Kaiun Japan 404.00 28.25% 564.00 130.00 79.53 2,209,400 194

Teekay USA 59.56 3.67% 63.69 39.11 14.46 724,080 4,514

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited USA 72.46 6.79% 75.50 42.23 10.41 132,560 1,398

* All prices as on 28th September 2007 in local currencies except for "**" companies, which are traded in EUR

marketsummaries


Fleet Supply

Drewry Prices

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No '000 Dwt No '000 Dwt No '000 Dwt No '000 Dwt No '000 DwtFleet Size - End period10-50,000 840 28,206 845 28,765 832 28,549 831 28,487 832 28,54950-80,000 326 21,640 367 24,407 413 27,478 409 27,230 413 27,47880-120,000 673 67,872 704 71,537 735 75,261 729 74,588 735 75,261120-200,000 329 49,475 350 52,733 358 54,164 355 53,633 358 54,164200,000+ 477 139,440 483 141,320 505 148,192 503 147,586 505 148,192

Total 2,749 318,762 2,749 318,762 2,843 333,645 2,827 331,524 2,843 333,645Average Age% Double Hull

Orderbook - End period10-50,000 220 9,439 240 10,642 240 10,671 242 10,754 240 10,67150-80,000 185 12,093 248 15,541 215 13,645 223 14,044 215 13,64580-120,000 153 16,691 225 24,714 281 30,914 279 30,718 281 30,914120-200,000 60 9,541 107 16,963 139 21,922 137 21,617 139 21,922200,000+ 92 27,864 168 51,347 174 53,307 176 53,934 174 53,307

Total 710 75,627 988 119,207 1,049 130,459 1,057 131,067 1,049 130,459% Fleet 25.8% 23.7% 35.9% 37.4% 36.9% 39.1% 37.4% 39.5% 36.9% 39.1%

New orders10-50,000 109 3,299 287 9,366 238 6,603 10 339 38 94950-80,000 35 2,247 171 10,033 57 3,441 4 294 5 25680-120,000 25 2,725 167 18,356 52 5,776 11 1,194 6 727120-200,000 7 917 87 13,617 32 5,105 5 792 0 0200,000+ 19 5,801 109 33,533 19 5,839 1 300 0 0

Total 195 14,989 821 84,906 398 26,763 31 2,919 49 1,932

Deliveries *10-50,000 43 1,734 57 2,402 42 1,706 2 83 14 43350-80,000 57 3,815 67 4,343 46 2,963 2 148 1 7380-120,000 62 6,698 47 5,144 42 4,628 5 535 1 115120-200,000 25 4,029 31 3,940 19 3,049 3 485 0 0200,000+ 29 8,938 19 5,772 21 6,461 1 298 1 318

Total 216 25,214 221 21,601 170 18,806 13 1,548 17 940

Deletions10-50,000 27 750 42 1,304 45 1,449 3 81 6 15250-80,000 16 961 7 435 3 183 0 0 0 080-120,000 16 1,405 10 909 9 821 1 88 0 0120-200,000 4 544 0 0 2 324 0 0 0 0200,000+ 1 262 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 64 3,921 59 2,649 59 2,776 4 169 6 152

Secondhand Sales10-50,000 133 4,390 166 4,871 129 3,617 14 350 18 44750-80,000 40 2,689 44 2,831 51 3,401 0 0 10 72280-120,000 55 5,383 48 4,868 42 4,150 2 214 6 579120-200,000 41 6,122 37 5,648 38 5,773 0 0 6 871200,000+ 30 8,704 43 12,276 34 9,261 6 1,573 1 302

Total 299 27,288 338 30,494 294 26,202 22 2,137 41 2,922

* Provisional deliveries for September 2007

10.874.1% 75.7% 77.9% 78.2%12.0 10.9 10.910.8

78.2%

Sep2005 2006 Aug2007

Scrap Price$/ldt

2005 2006 2007 Aug Sep 2005 2006 2007 Aug Sep SepType of Vessel*MR 41.8 46.8 48.4 50.5 51.0 5.0 5.1 6.3 6.7 6.8 540Panamax 43.6 48.0 54.0 59.0 59.5 6.3 6.4 8.0 8.6 8.7 540Aframax 60.4 62.9 67.3 70.0 71.0 8.7 8.8 11.0 11.8 11.9 540Suezmax 73.0 75.5 83.5 87.0 88.0 10.6 10.1 12.4 13.8 13.8 510Vlcc 119.0 124.9 133.1 138.0 139.0 14.7 14.2 17.4 19.2 19.2 510

BSPA2005 2006 2007 Aug Sep 2005 2006 2007 Aug Sep Average**

Type of Vessel*MR 28.7 30.9 36.8 40.0 40.0 44.3 47.1 49.6 52.0 51.0 51.3Panamax 38.3 40.0 43.9 46.5 47.0 45.9 47.9 53.8 57.5 57.5 n/aAframax 50.0 54.6 55.7 58.0 57.5 56.2 62.5 65.8 68.5 68.0 68.6Suezmax n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 72.4 76.2 85.0 92.0 91.5 n/aVlcc n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 113.7 116.2 121.8 133.0 131.0 131.9

* See model fleet on page 13 for details ** for the month

Newbuilding Price (US$m)

Scrap Value (US$m)

Secondhand Value (US$m, 10 year old) Secondhand Value (US$m, 5 year old)

marketsummaries


Freight Rates

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The Crude Tanker Fleet & Orderbook: September 2007

OrderbookSize Existing Fleet* 2007 2008 2009 2010+ Total % of Fleet

('000 dwt) No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt Dwt10-50 202 5,400 2 25 4 188 0 0 0 0 6 213 3.9

50-80 164 10,988 0 0 8 569 13 940 5 378 26 1,887 17.2

80-120 586 60,376 11 1,194 58 6,304 78 8,527 55 6,055 202 22,080 36.6

120-200 352 53,246 7 1,121 20 3,143 57 8,999 55 8,659 139 21,922 41.2

200-320 499 145,782 8 2,438 34 10,341 64 19,685 53 16,043 159 48,507 33.3

320+ 6 2,410 1 320 3 960 5 1,600 6 1,920 15 4,800 199.2

Total 1,809 278,201 29 5,098 127 21,504 217 39,752 174 33,054 547 99,408 35.7

* Fleet less 10-50,000 dwt tankers built before 1st July 1975

* Worldscale prevailing at reported time of fixing Source: Baltic Exchange 1st October 2007

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Cal Cal 07 07 07 08 08 08 2008 2009

AG-Japan 65 80 83 83 81 79 74 70(260,000 mt)W.Africa-USAC 98 128 133 127 121 115 115 113(130,000 mt)North Sea-Cont 115 133 136 129 129 124 125 123(80,000 mt)AG-Japan 171 180 190 187 185 183 183 184(55,000 mt)Cont-USAC 202 232 248 244 240 237 232 223(37,000 mt)Sing-Japan 218 235 250 242 240 240 230 228(30,000 mt)

Forward Freight Agreements* (FFA) Baltic Tanker Earnings Index

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500BCTIBDTI

Sep 07Sep 06Sep 05

Vlcc 2005 2006 2007 Aug Sep Panamax 2005 2006 2007 Aug SepTCE Rate ($/day) TCE Rate ($/day)AG-Japan 54,600 47,317 33,411 24,600 21,600 Caribs-Uses 39,808 32,908 33,967 25,900 25,100AG-South Korea 45,175 43,700 28,978 20,400 18,400 N.Europe-Car/Uses 22,742 16,225 20,267 n/a n/aAG-N.Europe 53,858 47,864 28,756 17,300 12,900

Average 51,211 45,846 30,381 20,767 17,633 Average 31,275 24,567 28,233 25,900 25,100TC Rate (1 yr) TC Rate (1 yr)5 Year Old $/day 60,125 55,992 52,667 54,500 53,000 5 Year Old $/day 28,933 29,100 28,133 30,000 27,50010 Year Old $/day n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 10 Year Old $/day 21,833 23,225 22,583 23,000 22,500TC Rate (3 yr) TC Rate (3 yr) 5 Year Old $/day n/a 48,617 46,811 49,500 49,500 5 Year Old $/day n/a 25,700 26,078 27,000 26,500

Suezmax 2005 2006 2007 Aug Sep Product 2005 2006 2007 Aug SepTCE Rate ($/day) TCE Rate ($/day)Med-Med 57,133 52,833 38,167 15,100 12,800 Med-Med (Handy) 18,733 17,375 18,678 8,600 4,600W.Africa-Car/Uses 42,967 42,300 33,500 17,100 16,800 Sing-Japan (MR) 16,750 13,117 8,978 7,400 7,600

Average 50,050 47,567 35,833 16,100 14,800 Caribs-Uses (MR) 23,617 19,917 20,622 10,700 8,400TC Rate (1 yr) Med-N.Europe (MR) 12,808 8,450 19,044 10,200 6,8005 Year Old $/day 42,292 42,667 43,278 45,000 43,000 N.Europe-Uses (MR) 16,900 13,392 23,183 n/a n/a10 Year Old $/day n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a AG-Japan (LR1) 36,408 25,242 23,489 24,200 21,100TC Rate (3 yr) AG-Japan (LR2) 41,433 23,975 17,022 18,300 13,4005 Year Old $/day n/a 37,158 37,933 39,000 38,000 Average 23,807 17,352 18,717 13,233 10,317

TC Rate (1 yr)5 Year Old $/day 18,854 21,417 22,361 23,500 22,750

Aframax 2005 2006 2007 Aug Sep 10 Year Old $/day 14,063 15,083 15,261 15,650 15,500TCE Rate ($/day) TC Rate (3 yr) Med-Med 36,400 29,383 26,822 8,100 12,200 Handy 5 Year Old $/day n/a 19,100 20,244 21,000 20,500N.Europe-N.Europe 49,792 40,475 35,167 11,600 19,800 MR 5 Year Old $/day n/a 21,675 22,111 24,000 23,000Caribs-Uses 32,733 33,283 30,467 12,000 14,900

Average 39,642 34,381 30,819 10,567 15,633TC Rate (1 yr)5 Year Old $/day 34,938 35,150 32,911 34,500 33,00010 Year Old $/day 22,292 21,975 21,972 23,350 22,000TC Rate (3 yr) 5 Year Old $/day n/a 28,183 29,333 29,000 29,000

methodologynotesAsset Monitor

The asset monitor index relates the ratio of a vessel's secondhand price and the difference between the newbuilding price and the residual value at the end of its useful trading life. The asset monitor plots three cases as comparison benchmarks. The value of assets at a freight market peak cycle (in this case 2004) are calculated and plotted. Similarly the value of assets at a freight market trough is calculated - in this case 1994. Additionally as a base case a statistical depreciationof the asset has been calculated over 25 years period using the declining balance depreciation method. Plotting representative market sales over this period provides the reader with asset value locations at a glance.

The Drewry Demand Index

The Drewry demand Index is an attempt to measure demand for oil tankers - both crude and Clean. The Index is not designed to be an absolute measure of demand, rather provides an indication as to changes in demand and thus provides an accurate trend of tanker demand. The methodology employed utilises tracking of the tanker fleet and fixtures over an extended period of time (in this case two years) and thus grouping oil movements by vessel types. By relating vessel employment to oil production by country and region an assessment of tanker demand can be made, which is then converted to an Index using January 1998 as the 100 mark.

Assumptions for Investment Return calculations

· Newbuilding - Delivery in 18 months, 25 year trading life. · Secondhand - Prompt delivery five year-old, 20

year trading life.· Residual value based on prevailing scrap rates.· 2007 operating costs.· 360 trading days.· Sensitivity implies for a $1,000pd change in TCE, the given change in IRR is produced.· Time charter rates are for 5 year old vessels.

Assumptions for the model fleet

· Vlcc - 2000 built, 308,491 dwt, double hull, SBT, 15 tanks, cargo capacity at 98% - 334,849 cum.· Suezmax – 2000 built, 152,592 dwt, double hull, SBT, cargo capacity at 98% - 170,803 cum.· Aframax – 2000 built, 105,000 dwt, double hull, SBT, cargo capacity at 98% - 115,509 cum.· Panamax – 2000 built, 72,500 dwt, double hull, SBT, cargo capacity at 98% - 79,986 cum.· Product carrier (LR) – 2000 built, 105,177 dwt, double hull, epoxy coated, 12 tanks, SBT and heating coils, cargo capacity at 98% - 121,810 cum.· Product Carrier (MR) – 2000 built, 46,168 dwt, double hull, epoxy coated, 12 tanks, SBT and heat exchanger, cargo capacity at 98% - 52,175 cum.· Product carrier (Handy) – 2000 built, 32,230 dwt, double hull, epoxy coated, 10 tanks, SBT and cargo capacity at 98% - 36,693 cum.


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Contact: Parul BhambriEmail: [email protected]

Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd

Telephone: +44 (0)20 7538 0191Fax: +44 (0)20 7987 9396Web www.drewry.co.uk

Drewry Shipping Consultants LtdDrewry House, Meridian Gate - South Quay213 Marsh Wall, London E14 9FJUnited Kingdom

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Tanker Insight

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