taking the temperature of scottish oil & gas...
TRANSCRIPT
www.sdi.co.uk
Taking the
Temperature of
Scottish oil & gas
industry Gerry Love
www.sdi.co.uk
Scotland has long been recognised as a
major oil and gas hub – a gateway to the
North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.
The depth, breadth and strength of skills
and experience that the industry in Scotland
enjoys are renowned throughout the world.
Scotland’s role in the global oil and gas
industry has long been characterised by
constant evolution and development, with
Aberdeen at its forefront.
Introduction
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For the past 50 years, the oil and gas industry has played a critical role in Scotland & the
UK’s economic success. UKCS, within the EU, is estimated to have the largest oil
reserves in the EU and the second largest volume of gas reserves after the Netherlands.
UKCS – Current State of Play
• More than 42.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) have been produced from the UKCS and
10 to 20 billion boe are estimated to remain
• UK oil & gas sector supports over 300,000 across the UK
• Lift costs have halved over the last 2 years from $30 per barrel to $14
• July 17 – 30th Licensing round, including relinquished discoveries
• Decom is the only area with increasing expenditure, £1.2 billion
• Drilling activity at low level, 14 exploration wells and 8 appraisal wells drilled in ’16
• North Sea basin needs fresh capital investment – 3 new field approvals since ‘16
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• The past 5 years have seen exit of majors from UKCS and entrance of independents
• New entrants are often private equity backed and lack infrastructure and expertise to
manage their assets
• New entrants taking ownership of mature assets – maximising economic recovery
• Recently there has been a lot of activity on mergers & acquisitions, both corporate &
supply chain
• Current thinking is on future collaboration
• Potential to unlock incremental value through collaborative effort.
UKCS – Current State of Play
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Scotland’s oil and gas innovators set the pace when it came to working dangerous
and inhospitable conditions.
Innovation
Scotland’s track record in R&D is
recognised as one of the best in the world
and the infrastructure exists to take that
work into a new era.
International operators, have located
specialist teams in Aberdeen to be part of
the world-class R&D community.
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Technology – Digital Energy
• Development of digital energy / BIG data and it’s applications
• Plans for National Data Repository
• Historical asset integrity data – allows proactive maintenance, not reactive
• Marine logistics - offshore logistics optimisation
• OGTC Solution Centre
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1. Improve the viability of UKCS Operations.
2. Improve the viability of Scottish O&G Companies
3. Increased sales & exports of Scottish developed
Digital/ Data Oil & Gas products & services
Strategic
Objectives
5 Major
Challenges
Current
Production
Efficiency
is <60%
Current
UKCS
Exploration
Activity is
low
Too many
vendors offering
unproven
golden bullet
solutions
The cost of
implementing
DS solutions
perceived
to be high
Current price
is $70 and this
could be a
reality for
a while
4 Strategic
Ambitions
Improve
reliability &
efficiencies
through
DS
Increase &
Sustain
Exploration
through
DS
Support operators
to build the
Investment case,
prove & de-risk
Investment in DS
Support DS
companies to
develop
Competitive
aligned
Risk/reward
proposals
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Can Data Science Help Maximise Economic Recovery?
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1. Improve the viability of UKCS Operations.
2. Improve the viability of Scottish O&G Companies
3. Increased sales & exports of Scottish developed
Digital/ Data Oil & Gas products & services
Strategic
Objectives
5 Major
Challenges
Current
Production
Efficiency
is <60%
Current
UKCS
Exploration
Activity is
low
Too many
vendors offering
unproven
golden bullet
solutions
The cost of
implementing
DS solutions
perceived
to be high
Current price
is $70 and this
could be a
reality for
a while
4 Strategic
Ambitions
Improve
reliability &
efficiencies
through
DS
Increase &
Sustain
Exploration
through
DS
Support operators
to build the
Investment case,
prove & de-risk
Investment in DS
Support DS
companies to
develop
Competitive
aligned
Risk/reward
proposals
Next steps:
Develop the evidence base ,
economic model and potential
actions / investments
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Can Data Science Help Maximise Economic Recovery?
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1. Improve the viability of UKCS Operations.
2. Improve the viability of Scottish O&G Companies
3. Increased sales & exports of Scottish developed
Digital/ Data Oil & Gas products & services
Strategic
Objectives
5 Major
Challenges
Current
Production
Efficiency
is <60%
Current
UKCS
Exploration
Activity is
low
Too many
vendors offering
unproven
golden bullet
solutions
The cost of
implementing
DS solutions
perceived
to be high
Current price
is $70 and this
could be a
reality for
a while
4 Strategic
Ambitions
Improve
reliability &
efficiencies
through
DS
Increase &
Sustain
Exploration
through
DS
Support operators
to build the
Investment case,
prove & de-risk
Investment in DS
Support DS
companies to
develop
Competitive
aligned
Risk/reward
proposals
www.sdi.co.uk
Can Data Science Help Maximise Economic Recovery?
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The Oil and Gas Technology Centre (OGTC) will become the global “go to” centre for
solving offshore mature basin, subsea and decommissioning challenges. Driven by
industry, the OGTC will draw upon existing expertise residing within industry and
academia as well as developing new Centres of Excellence. Focusing on:
The Oil and Gas Technology Centre
Development & Production
Well Drilling, Completion and Wellwork
Subsea
FPSO
Land
Data Collection and Analysis
Asset Integrity & Production Efficiency
Produced Water Handling & Disposal
Cross-Cutting Technologies
Sensor Technologies
Asset Integrity
Material Science
Flow Assurance
Robotics
Environmental Science
Manufacturing Technology
Digital Technology
Exploration
Seismic Data and Geoscience
Non-seismic Technologies
Well Drilling
Data Collection and Analysis
Rock and Fluid Characterisation
Decommissioning
Subsea
Wells
Removal of Equipment / Topsides / Jackets
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Oil and gas decommissioning is a relatively new
market with a new set of challenges and
priorities.
There are strong synergies with oil and gas
exploration, development and production, but
also key differences.
Scottish Enterprise, Decom North Sea & HIE published
Decommissioning Action Plan – Dec 16
Working with UK Oil & Gas Authority, Decom North Sea &
OGTC to realise the potential for Scottish based companies
Scottish Govt announced £5m Decommissioning Challenge
Fund to support infrastructure upgrades and innovative
salvage & transport methods for Scottish ports
Decommissioning
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Decommissioning
•Decom – The prize on the horizon ???• £17.6bn to be spent to 2025
• 47% on P&A; only 1.2% on onshore recycling and disposal
• 900,000 tonnes of material to be brought ashore by 2025
• In Central and Northern North Sea, 28 platforms forecast for
removal by 2025 -82% of topsides and 90% of substructures yet
to be contracted
• GVA for Scotland could be £8.3-£11.3 billion based on capturing
between:
• 70-90% in CNS & NNS and 40-60% in SNS - Well P&A
• 70-90% in CNS & NNS and 40-60% in SNS - Operator
Project Management
• 35-55% in CNS & NNS and 10-20% in SNS - Removal
/associated activity
• 302 O&G installations eventually to be decommissioned in the
UKCS alone
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The Scottish oil and gas industry boasts a subsea engineering cluster that is
among the strongest in the world. With almost half of the world’s subsea
installations in the North Sea, Scotland is a global leader in the sector.
Subsea
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The Scottish oil and gas industry boasts a subsea engineering cluster that is
among the strongest in the world. With almost half of the world’s subsea
installations in the North Sea, Scotland is a global leader in the sector.
Subsea
Company Base
• 200+ companies employing 20,000 people with a strong focus on subsea markets.
• Annual turnover of £7 billion, more than half of which is exported (equates to one third of the global
market for subsea oil & gas).
• Expected to grow in other emerging markets such as renewable energy, subsea mining and aquaculture
Experience of Innovation
• Scotland is a hub of cutting-edge research and development work.
• Our track record in R&D is recognised as one of the best in the world and the infrastructure exists, or is
under development, to take that work into a new era.
World Leading Expertise
• Expertise residing within the Scottish workforce is exported around the world.
• All the major global oil & gas engineering companies have significant operations in Scotland, including
FMC, GE, OneSubsea, Aker, Subsea 7, Technip and Bibby Offshore.
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The Scottish supply chain’s ability to diversify is about much more than new
products, services and markets. It’s also about new industry opportunities,
including offshore wind and nuclear decommissioning.
Diversifying
Offshore Wind
A growing market concentrated
in the UK and Europe.
3 Scottish offshore wind farms
with a combined value of £3bn
will began construction in 2017.
Contributing to the £18bn of UK
offshore wind investment
forecast between 2016 and
2020.
Nuclear Decommissioning
The UK spend between £2bn and £3bn each
year on nuclear decommissioning activities.
It is forecast that the total cost of fully
decommissioning the UK’s existing nuclear
sites could reach £117bn over a 100 year
period.
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The quality of Scotland’s workforce is internationally recognised. The people of
Scotland make up one of the best trained, most reliable and cost-competitive
labour forces in the world, with generations of experience in onshore and offshore
services.
Skills
Scotland’s oil and gas industry has spawned
an education and training network that
features a diverse but interlinked range of
vocational training facilities, education
partnerships and specialist business services
to the industry.
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Scotland has an oil and gas supply chain of around 2,000 companies. 2016/17 –
Estimated Revenue was £19.1bn. £10.4bn was generated internationally.
Supplychain in Scotland
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How is the £10.4bn International Sales made up?
Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2016/17
SDI / SE International
Oil & Gas Survey.
Total sales £19.1bn of which
£10.4bn was
international.
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HollandAzerbaijan
Germany
Angola
China
Qatar
Singapore
Saudi
Arabia
India
Canada
Equatorial
Guinea
Iraq
Australia
GhanaMalaysia
Kurdistan
Denmark
Norway
KazakhstanRussia
UAE
Nigeria
USA
Brazil
How is the £10.4bn International Sales made up?
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How is the £10.4bn International Sales made up?
Country Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Saudi Arabia £0.29bn
Germany / Netherlands
India
China / Qatar
Angola / Malaysia
Nigeria
UAE
Canada / Kazakhstan
Norway
USA
£0.30bn
£0.31bn
£0.32bn
£0.33bn
£0.39bn
£0.45bn
£0.43bn
£0.55bn
£1.8bn
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Company Target Growth Opportunity - 2018
Region Percentage
1
2
3
3
5
6
7
8
9
10 Central America 3%
South America
Australasia
Caspian
North America
Africa
Asia Pacific
Non –EU
EU
Middle East
7%
11%
16%
24%
28%
31%
31%
53%
57%
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Aberdeen has long been recognized as a major oil and gas hub – a gateway to the North
Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The oil capital of Europe is ranked as one of the highest
performing cities in the UK.
Aberdeen
Despite the adverse effect of lower oil
prices, Aberdeen still ranks in the top ten
performing cities in the UK, according to
Demos-PwC.
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Aberdeen – Infrastructure Growth
Prior to oil crash drop, Aberdeen was planning for the future
A number of major infrastructure projects are in the pipeline or already being developed:
• Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route
• Harbour Expansion
• New Aberdeen Exhibition & Conference Centre
• New Industrial Parks – Westhill ( Subsea Centre ) & Prime 4 ( Statoil, Apache )
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Aberdeen Harbour
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Road
Significantly improve travel in and
around Aberdeen
Easier routes to industrial areas and
Peterhead supply base.
Aberdeen Western Peripheral Road
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Aberdeen – New AECC
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Thank You