tacit teaching materials futures - managing innovation€¦ · the ‘front end of innovation’ is...
TRANSCRIPT
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
TACITTeachingMaterials
By
JohnBessant(UniversityofExeter)TimJones(FutureAgenda)
Exeter,2018
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
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ThesenotesaretoaccompanytheExecutiveBriefingonFuture-basedLearningwhichformspartoftheTACITprogramme.Theyaredesignedforteachersandcoachestousetohelpstructureaworkshopbasedontheapproach.Ourintentionisthattheybecomethebasisforanon-goingdevelopmentoflearningresourcesaroundthetopicandsofeedback,elaboration,configuration,addition,etc.wouldbewelcomed.Thedefaultassumptioninthedesignofthisworkshopisfora1-daysession(the‘IF-Lab’)withextensiveopportunityforinteractionandpracticeonthepartofparticipants.Inadditiontotheworkshopstructurethereareseveralhand-outsandotherlearningresources;ourintentionagainistobuildalibraryofthesetosupportdeliveryofvariousdifferentkindsofteaching/coachinginputbasedonthistechnique.
TableofContents
ModuleFuture-basedLearning–theIF-Lab(ImaginingthefutureLab) 3
TheIF-Lab–Imaginingthefuture.OverallRoadmapoftheworkshop 4
Resourcestosupplydelivery 5
Handout1:Thinkingabouttomorrow 5
Handout2:Scenarious 11
Handout3:Delphiapproach 12
Handout4:Roadmapping 13
Handout5:The‘Gamechanger’programmeatShell 15
Handout6:Workshopinstructions 16
Handout7:Furtheroptionalactivities 18
Acknowledgement
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
Future-basedLearning–theIF-Lab(ImaginingthefutureLab)
Workshopsize:ideally10+participantsLocation:Flexiblelayout,chairsingroups,oracircleifpossible.Facilitators:1+1trainerContentThis module introduces the idea of exploring and working with futures. Throughpresentationanddiscussion,understandingisgainedofhowwecanbuildcoherentpicturesofthefuture,howwecananalyseandexplorethosefuturesandextractrobustinnovationprojects from them and how we can ‘backcast’, developing a roadmap for reaching thatdesiredfuturestate.Theworkshophasthreecomponents,eachofwhichinvolvesexplanationfollowedbygroupwork,presentationandreview.EducationalObjectivesAfter completing this module, participants will have completed the following learningoutcomes:Knowledge/understandingParticipantswill:
• Understandavarietyofapproaches towardssystematicexplorationandanalysisofpossiblefuturesasawayofframinginnovation/entrepreneurshipactivity
Abilities/skillsParticipantswill:
• Generatescenariosrelatedtotheirownorganisation’sfuturetrajectoryandidentifyarangeofpossibleinnovationoptionswithinthosefutures
• Analsyse selected options in detail and develop robust future cases as innovationopportunities
• Back-castfromthesefuturepossibilitiesanddeveloparoadmapforreachingtheemfromthepresentstate
• Usesomebasicpresentationskillstoimprovetheirimpactincommunicatingideas–pitchinginnovation.
CompetenciesParticipantswill:
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
• Practice and rehearse the skills needed to
workwithfuturesasakeyinputtotheirorganziation’sinnovationsearchactivities
TheIF-Lab–ImaginingthefutureOverallroadmapoftheworkshop
1. Introductionandwarm-up2. Thinkingabouttomorrow
Break
3. Buildingscenarios–positive,negative,neutralBreak
4. Extractinginnovationopportunities
Break5. Roadmapping
6. Pitching,reviewandlearningcapture
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
ResourcestosupportdeliveryMaterialsrequired:Type Quantity Purpose/locationPensNotepaper
1perparticipant3sheetsperattendee
Whiteboards/charts
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1 per group, standing nextto working area of eachgroup
Handouts(These can be distributed during the session or sent beforehand to allow participants toprepare)
1. Thinkingabouttomorrow(forallparticipants)2. Scenarios(forallparticipants)3. Delphimethods(forallparticipants)4. Roadmapping(forallparticipants)5. TheGamechangercase(forallparticipants)6. Workshopinstructions(forfacilitatorsonly)7. Furtheractivities(optional)
HandoutNo1:Thinkingabouttomorrow Executivebriefing:Future-basedlearning1.Thinkingabouttomorrow….Innovationis,bydefinition,allaboutthefuture.It’saboutwhatmightbe,whatcouldhappen,aboutproductsandserviceswhichshapeourlivesinsomefuturetime.Butit’salsounknown,uncertain,toalargeextentunpredictable.Sothechallengewefaceasinnovationmanagersandentrepreneursistofindwaysofimaginingthefuture,exploringthreatsandopportunitiesandusingthisinformationtoshapetheideaswecreate.
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
Forecasting,futuregazing,isnotanewskillset.Backinbiblicaltimestherewereclearreferencestothepractice.Anditmatterstoday–arecentsurveyshowsthatfuture-prepared“vigilant”firmsenjoyabove-averageprofitabilityandmarketcapitalizationgrowth1.Someorganizations–forexampleShell–havebuiltastrongpositionthroughtheirabilitytoexplorethefutureandreturnfromthatjourneywithusefulinformationwhichshapedtheiractionsinthepresent.(Seethe‘Furtherresources’sectionformoreonthisandtheGamechangerprogrammewhichtheydevelopedoutoftheirexperience)The‘frontendofinnovation’isallaboutsearchbehaviourandforecasting/futuresmethodsprovideapowerfuladditiontothistoolkit.Inparticulartherearetwostrandstousingsuchtools–forecasting(theactoflookingforwardtoemergingthreatsandopportunities)andbackcasting(workingbackfromachosenanddesirablepositionwithinthosefuturestocreatearoadmapforhowtogettherefromtoday).Thechallengeinteachingandcoachinginnovationistodevelopskillsandcapabilitiesaroundsystematicallyusingfuturesapproaches.2.ThefuturestoolkitWecanbreakdownthefuturestoolkittothreestages:
• Forecasting–creatingpicturesofthefuture• Analysis–exploringtheimplicationsofsuchfuturesanddrawingoutpriorities–
wheredowewanttogettoasanorganization?• Backcasting–roadmappingourwaytoreachthisdestinationbeginningwithwhere
wearetodayIt’srelevantrightacrosstheinnovationspectrum,fromidentifyingthepotentialopportunityinastart-upthroughtoplottingthecourseofahundred-yearoldcorporationasittriestonavigateturbulentwaters.Possiblyinsertgraphic–funnelbasedaroundcreatepicturesoffuturethroughtochoosingwhichprioritytoworkonthroughtoimplementingthepathway.
1R.Rohrbecketal,‘Howleadingfirmsbuildasuperiorpositioninthemarketsofthefuture’,2018CorporateForesightandBenchmarkingReport,AarhusUniversity,Denmark.
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
Withineachoftheseareastherearehelpfultoolsandapproachestoenableustoworkwiththesethemes.Typicallytheseinclude:
(a) Exploringthefuturea. Extrapolatingtrendsb. Askingexpertsc. Scenarios
(b) Analysingthefuture
a. Identifyingthreatsandopportunitiesb. Prioritisingtheseandidentifyingactionareasc. Creatingcleartargets
(c) Roadmappingtowardsadesirablefuture
a. Backcasting,identifyingthestepsneededtoreachthisfromtoday’spositionb. Planning,creatingapathwaytowardsthisfuture
TheTCIchallengeistoprovideopportunitiestobuildandpractisetheseskills,firstinworkshoprehearsalandthenappliedtotheorganizationitselfinsystematicfashion.3. Exploringthefuture
(a) FollowingtrendsThesimplestapproachtoexploringthefutureistotakewherewearenowandtrytoidentifytrendsandfollowthemthrough.Organizationsalreadydomuchofthis,makingextensiveuseofshort-termforecaststodevelopproductsandservicesbasedonanticipatedgrowthinmarketdemand,technologicalperformanceorsomeothervariable.Butthesearetoolsfordealingwithnear-termfutures;thechallengecomeswhenweusetrendextrapolationtolookfurtherout,beyondhorizonsof5yearsormore.AgoodexampleisMoore’sLaw;thishasworkedwellasoneoftheshapingdevicesfortheITindustryanditsmultiplemarkets.OriginallyanobservationbyGordonMoore,oneofthefoundersofIntel,thissuggestedthatthepowerofcomputerchipsdoubles(asmeasuredbythenumberoftransistorsplacedonanintegratedcircuit)everytwoyears.Addtothisinformationontrendsaroundthecostofproducingthosechipswhichalsoseemtofollowapattern,halvingeveryfiveyearsorso.Andprettysoonyouhavesomeguidelineswhichhavehelpedwholeindustriesmakestrategicplans,investingtodayfortomorrow’sgrowthopportunities.IntelspendsbillionsonnewplantsandguidesitsstrategyinpartviaMoore’slawandwhatthatwouldmeanforthekindofdevicestheyshouldmake.Othersontheuser
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
sideassumethatsuchpowerbecomesavailableandthinkaboutwhatmightbepossiblewithit–leadingtosmartphones,wearabledevicesandevermorepowerfulcomputingembeddedintheInternetofThings.Trendscanbemappedintermsoftheiroveralltrajectorybutit’salsousefultohavesomesenseoftherateofchange.Forexampleweknowthattheworld’spopulationisgrowing–buthowfast?Thecostofhealthcareisrisingbuthowfast?Thenumberofpeoplelivingincitiesisrising–butwhereandhowfast?Thepoweroftrendextrapolationisthatitfocusesquicklyonakeythreatoropportunity.Theirmainweaknessisthatitoftenfocusesonasingletrendorsmallsetoffactors-butthefutureiscomposedofmultipletrendsandtheirinteraction.Whatwe’rereallylookingforarecoherentnarrativeswhichweavetogethersomeofthesetrendsintomeaningfulstoriesinwhichwecanexplorethechallengesandopportunities.(Thinkingaboutthefutureis,aswe’vesaid,notnew–andcritiquesofforecastingarealsoanoldtheme.Duringthelastcenturytherewasconsiderablediscussionroundtherisingrisksofoverpopulation,environmentalpollution,energycostsandavailability,etc.Thedebatearoundwhatwerecalled‘Thelimitstogrowth’emergedinwhichforecastersarguedabouttherelativeimplicationsofthesetrendsandtheneedforpoliticalaction;wecanseereflectionsofthiskindofargumentinournewsmediatoday.Seethe‘Furtherresources’sectionforsomeexamplesofthesecritiques).
(b) AsktheexpertsAnyonecanstargaze,imaginefutures.Butithelpstohavesomepriorknowledgeaboutwhatislikely,whatmightbepossible.Sojudgmentsfromexpertsarevaluableinsharpeningforecastsandcreatingcoherentpictures.Delphimethodsarebasedonthisuseofexpertstohelpprovidepictures.(ThenamecomesfromthefamousOracleinGreekmythologywhowassupposedtobeabletoofferanswerstoquestionsaboutthefuture).Expertscanbeinvariousdomains–technical,political,sociological–theirskillsareinlookingforwardthroughalensofexpertise.AtypicalDelphistudyasksfortheiropiniononemergingfutures,thencompilesasharedpictureofthoseviews.Thisiscirculatedamongsttheexpertsforfurthercommentandelaboration,andsoon,graduallysharpeningandrefiningtheforecast.(AnexampleofaDelphiapproachwasamajorstudycommissionedintheUKin1985tolookatthefuturewithinformationtechnology25yearsahead.Itdrewonhundredsofexpertsandbuiltarichpicturewhichhelpedinformpolicy-making.Inthe‘Furtherresources’sectionyoucanreadanarticlepublishedin2015,whichlooksbackatthesuccess(or
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
otherwise)oftheirpredictions)
(c) Creatingstoriesaboutthefuture–scenariosHumanbeingshaveevolvedtobeabletoprocessalotofinformationfastandtotryandmakesenseofit.Weinterprettheworldintermsofnarratives–storieswhichwetellourselvesandwhichweusetoguideouractions.AsweseeintheTACITworkonstorytelling(cross-link)wearehard-wiredforthisandwecanusethistoadvantageinanumberofsituations.Andoneobviousplaceisinimaginingthefuture.Creatingpicturesofthefutureinwhichwearegoingtolive–whatproductsandserviceswillweconsume?Howwillorfactoriesandofficeswork?Whatarethe‘usecases’inwhichnewtechnologiesmightbedeployedandfindmarkets?It’sessentiallyscience-fictionandhasalongpedigree.Whatwouldaworldlooklikewithextremelyhighlevelsofsurveillance?GeorgeOrwell’s‘1984’givesachillingexample,wovenintoastoryofhowthatmightbeexperiencedinpeople’slives.Geneticmanipulationandselectivebreeding?AldousHuxley’s‘Bravenewworld’givessomeclues.Mobilecommunicationsenabledbysatellites?StepforwardArthurC.Clarke,whohadtheoriginalideabackinthe1960sandwroteaboutitinoneofhismanynovels.Thepowerofsuchapproachesisthattheyweavetogethertrendsandtryandcreatepossiblefutureswhichwecanthenexplore.Wecancrawlinsidetheseworldsandthinkaboutwhattheywouldmeanforus–wherecouldacompanylikeoursplay,whatarethelikelynewbusinessesopportunities?Andwherearethethreatswhichweneedtowatchoutfor,howmighttheyaffectus?Scenariosarewidelyused–theyhelpunderstandpossibleinnovationsincontext.WhenacompanylikeBMWorDaimlerdevelopaconceptcaritisnotsimplyatechnologicalbox–itisastoryaboutthepeoplewhomightdrivethatcarandtheplaceitwillhaveintheirlives.SteveJobs’visionofthehomecomputerwasnotsimplyoneofdesigningtheboxbutofimagininghowthisdevicewouldfitintotheworldinwhichpeopleliveandwork.Shell,aswehavementioned,hasalonghistoryofworkingwithscenariosandits‘Gamechanger’programmeessentiallycommissionssciencefictionstoriesaboutthefutureformateamofwritersoutsidethecompany.Theythenusethesescenariosasplacestoexplore;theroleofGamechangersistofindopportunitieswithinsuchspaceforShelltodeployitscompetenciesinthefuture.(YoucanreadmoreaboutGamechangerinthe‘FurtherResources’section).Oneimportantfeatureofscenariosisthattheycanbeshared–thespacecanbeexploredbymultipleplayerslookingatajointfuture.Shellislookingatthefutureoflargesmart
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
citiesbutexploringasanenergyprovideralongsideotherswhospecialiseinwatertreatment,communicationsutilities,transportationproviders,etc.Insimilarfashionthefutureofmobilityisnotjustofconcerntocarcompanies–ifthevehiclesbecomedriverlessthenwhatmightthespaceinsidebeusedfor.Anoffice?Anentertainmentcentre?Aschoolroom?Openingupthescenarioallowsotherstoexploreandtointeract,pavingthewayforpossiblecollaborativeinnovation.(4)AnalysingthefutureScenarioshelpprovidestorieswhichwecanexploretofindinnovationopportunities.Butweneedtobealittlemoresystematicifwearegoingtousethosetocreatevalue.Soinworkingwithfutureswealsoneedtodevelopskillsinprioritisingandanalysingthekeythreatsandopportunities.Typicallyorganizationsexploredimensionsliketheprobabilityofthescenarioemerging,thekeyforcesandactorsshapingit,thepotentialrisksandrewards,etc.Inotherwordstheydevelopanumberofbusinesscasesandthenlookcloselyatthemostattractive(orthreatening)ofthese.Thetoolsfordoingsoareessentiallythesameaswewoulduseindevelopinganewbusinesscaseforaninnovation.Systematicallyaskingquestionsaroundthecorevalueproposition,thekeyactors,thetargetmarket(s),thecostsandrevenueslikelytobeinvolved,etc.Andwecanusetoolslikestoryboarding,businessmodelcanvas,designthinking,etc.tocreatecoherentcasestopitchforfurtherexplorationtowardsthesefutures.IntheShellcase,forexample,theGamechangerprocessinvolveslookingatthreeversionsofscenarios–positive,negativeandneutralandthenteasingoutanumberofpossiblebusinesscaseswhicharethenpitchedinternallytofindsponsorsandchampionstohelpmovethemforwardaspartofShell’sinnovationstrategy.(5)BackcastingandroadmappingThefinalstageinusingfutures-basedapproachesistoworkbackwardsfromthedesirablefuturestatetowherewearetoday.This‘backcasting’istypicallydonebyusingaroad-mappingapproach,lookingsystematicallyatthestepsneededtomoveformtoday’spositiontooneinwhichtheorganizationcanachievethefuturestate–essentiallyaprojectplanforthefuture.Roadmappingisimportantbecauseithelpsidentifykeyresourceswhichhavetobefound–orcollaboratorstoprovidethem–andthetimingofsuchstages.Italsoallowsforlearningandexperimentalongthewayandthepotentialfordecisionpointstocontinueortoabandonthechosenapproach.
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
HandoutNo2:Scenarios
ScenariodevelopmentScenariosareinternallyconsistentdescriptionsofalternativepossiblefutures,basedupondifferentassumptionsandinterpretationsofthedrivingforcesofchange.Inputsincludequantitativedataandanalysis,andqualitativeassumptionsandassessments,suchassocietal,technological,economical,environmentalandpoliticaldrivers.Scenariodevelopmentisnotstrictly-speakingprediction,asitassumesthatthefutureisuncertainandthatthepathofcurrentdevelopmentscanrangefromtheconventionaltotherevolutionary.Itisparticularlygoodatincorporatingpotentialcriticaleventswhichmightresultindivergentpathsorbranchesbeingpursued.Scenariodevelopmentcanbenormativeorexplorative.Thenormativeperspectivedefinesapreferredvisionofthefutureandoutlinesdifferentpathwaysfromthegoaltothepresent.Forexample,thisiscommonlyusedinenergyfuturesandsustainablefuturesscenarios.Theexplorativeapproachdefinesthedriversofchange,andcreatesscenariosfromthesewithoutexplicitgoalsoragendas.Forscenariostobeeffectivetheyneedtoinclusive,plausibleandcompelling(asopposedtobeingexclusive,implausibleorobvious),aswellasbeingchallengingtotheassumptionsofthestakeholders.Theyshouldmaketheassumptionsandinputsusedexplicit,andformthebasisofaprocessofdiscussion,debate,policy,strategyandultimatelyaction.Theoutputistypicallytwoorthreecontrastingscenarios,buttheprocessofdevelopmentanddiscussionofscenariosismuchmorevaluable.Scenariodevelopmentmayinvolvemanydifferentforecastingtechniques,includingcomputer-basedsimulation.Typically,itbeginswiththeidentificationofthecriticalindicators,whichmightincludeuseofbrainstormingandDelphitechniques.Next,thereasonsforthebehaviouroftheseindicatorsisexamined,perhapsusingregressiontechniques.Thefutureeventswhicharelikelytoaffecttheseindicatorsareidentified.Theseareusedtoconstructthebest,worstandmost-likelyfuturescenarios.Finally,thecompanyassessestheimpactofeachscenarioonitsbusiness.Thegoalistoplanfortheoutcomewiththegreatestimpact,orbetterstill,retainsufficientflexibilitytorespondtoseveraldifferentscenarios.Scenariodevelopmentisakeypartofthelong-termplanningprocessinthosesectorscharacterizedbyhighcapitalinvestment,longleadtimesandsignificantenvironmentaluncertainty,suchasenergy,aerospaceandtelecommunications.Manyorganizationsspendconsiderableresourcesonconstructingrichpicturesoffuturescenarios,engagingavarietyofexpertsandwriterstocreateplausiblevisionsoffuture
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
possibilities.Some–suchasShell–usethemextensivelyinternallybutalsomakethemavailableforothers.ClickhereforanaudiointerviewwithHelenKingofBordBhia,theIrishnationalagencyforthefoodindustrywhichusesscenariostohelpexplorethreatsandopportunitiesforfirmswithinthatsector.Furtherreading:https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures
HandoutNo3:DelphiapproachDelphimethodsTheopinionofoutsideexperts,orDelphimethod,isusefulwherethereisagreatdealofuncertaintyorforlongtimehorizons.Delphiisusedwhereaconsensusofexpertopinionisrequiredonthetiming,probabilityandidentificationoffuturetechnologicalgoalsorconsumerneedsandthefactorslikelytoaffecttheirachievement.Itisbestusedinmakinglong-termforecastsandrevealinghownewtechnologiesandotherfactorscouldtriggerdiscontinuitiesintechnologicaltrajectories.Thechoiceofexpertsandtheidentificationoftheirlevelandareaofexpertiseareimportant;thestructuringofthequestionsisevenmoreimportant.Therelevantexpertsmayincludesuppliers,dealers,customers,consultantsandacademics.Expertsinnon-technologicalfieldscanbeincludedtoensurethattrendsineconomic,socialandenvironmentalfieldsarenotoverlooked.TheDelphimethodusuallybeginswithapostalorinternetsurveyofexpertopiniononwhatthefuturekeyissueswillbe,andthelikelihoodofthedevelopments.Theresponseisthenanalysed,andthesamesampleofexpertsresurveyedwithanew,morefocusedquestionnaire.Thisprocedureisrepeateduntilsomeconvergenceofopinionisobserved,orconverselyifnoconsensusisreached.Theexerciseusuallyconsistsofaniterativeprocessofquestionnaireandfeedbackamongtherespondents;thisprocessfinallyyieldsaDelphiforecastoftherangeofexperts’opinionsontheprobabilitiesofcertaineventsoccurringbyaquotedtime.Themethodseekstonullifythedisadvantageofface-to-facemeetingsatwhichtherecouldbedeferencetoauthorityorreputation,areluctancetoadmiterror,adesiretoconformor
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
differencesinpersuasiveability.Allofthesecouldleadtoaninaccurateconsensusofopinion.Thequalityoftheforecastishighlydependentontheexpertiseandcalibreoftheexperts;howtheexpertsareselectedandhowmanyshouldbeconsultedareimportantquestionstobeanswered.Ifinternationalexpertsareused,theexercisecantakeaconsiderablelengthoftime,orthenumberofiterationsmayhavetobecurtailed.Althoughseekingaconsensusmaybeimportant,adequateattentionshouldbepaidtoviewsthatdifferradically‘fromthenorm’astheremaybeimportantunderlyingreasonstojustifysuchmaverickviews.Withsufficientdesign,understandingandresources,mostoftheshortcomingsoftheDelphitechniquecanbeovercomeanditisapopulartechnique,particularlyfornationalforesightprogrammes.
HandoutNo4:RoadmappingRoadmappingisafuturestoolforinnovationwhichlooksaheadtosomekindoffuturestateandthentracksbackthroughthestagesneededtogettothatstate.Inotherwordsitmakesa‘roadmap’ofwhathastobedonetogetthere.(Anotherlabelsometimesusedis‘backcasting’ratherthanforecasting).AtypicalexampleiswhatiscalledTechnologyRoadmapping.Thismightbesuedtoidentifythetechnologiesneededandtheresourcesnecessarytousethosetechnologiesinordertocreateanddeliversomeproductorserviceinthefuture.Thestagesmightlooklikethis:
1 Identifyfutureproductsorserviceswhichmightbeofvalueinthefutureenvironment–say5-10yearsoutfromtoday.
2 Whattechnologieswouldbeinvolvedinthatproductorservice?3 Whatstepsdoweneedtostarttakingtoacquirethetechnologicalcompetence
tousethosetechnologiesinthefuture?Whichskills?InvestmentsinnewR&D?Acquisitionofkeyresourcesorequipment?Etc.
4 Fromtodaywhatarethestepstowardsbuildingthosetechnologicalcompetencies?
Thefigurebelowshowsanexampleofasimpleroadmap
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
Inpracticaltermstherearemanydifferentwaysoflayingoutaroadmapbutthekeyelementswouldinvolveatimelineandsomeareastoconsider.Forexample:Year What’shappening Howdidwegetthere?
2025 Newproductfor
intelligenthomeautomation,controllingallyourhouseholddevices
2024 Prototypetestingwithkeymarketsandfinaldevelopment
Applyingtechnologiesinademonstrationproduct
2023 Individualcontrollersdevelopedandtestedandintegrationintoademonstrationproduct
Applyingthetechnologiesinavarietyofdifferentcontrollers–fortemperature,time,airquality,etc.
2022 Movingthetechnologiestoapplication
Masteringthecoretechnologies–havingskillsandequipmentinhouseandreadytodevelopproducts
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
2021 EstablishanewR&Dareaandlaboratoryteam
Recruitkeystaffandprocurekeyequipmentandresources
2020 Identifyproductspecificationandthetechnologiesneededtoproduceit
Researchonpotentialmarketsandproductsfortheyear2025aroundintelligentenergyefficienthomeautomation
2019 Strategicdecisiontodiversifyintonewproductareasaroundenergyefficiency
Forecastingtoolstolookatthefuturein2025andmarketopportunitieswithintheenvironmentofthattime
2018 Roadmapsoftenfocusonkeystagesaroundtechnologyintegrationandidentifyproductperformancefeaturesneededandtechnologiestoenablethem–forexamplereliabilityandcost.Theremaybecompetingtechnologieswhichcandeliverthesameattributessosomethingabouttechnologyexplorationandselectionisoftenafeature.Moreinformationaboutroadmappingcanbefoundathttp://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/uploads/Resources/Briefings/v2n1_ifm_briefing.pdf
HandoutNo5:The‘Gamechanger’programmeatShell
LikemanylargeorganizationsShellhasexperimentedwithavarietyofapproachestocorporateventuring,tryingtodiversifythebusinessandanticipateemergingdevelopmentsintechnologyandmarkets.OneofthemostsuccessfulofthesehasbentheGamechangerprogrammeandtheselinksprovidesomemoredetail.Historyoftheprogramme:http://www.strategos.com/client/shell-gamechanger/Currentmodelhttp://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/innovation/innovate-with-shell/shell-gamechanger.htmlAshortvideointroductiontotheprocess
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCJ5CxFozkwAvideoexampleofateaminactionhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niv82wW3khs
HandoutNo6:WorkshopinstructionsTheIF-Lab–ImaginingthefutureWorkshopinstructions:Session1:ThinkingabouttomorrowTiming:30-40minutesSplitparticipantsintosmallgroupsandgetthemtospend10-15minutesimaginingtheirorganization8yearsfromnow.Thinkabouttheproductsandservicestheyareoffering,themarketstheyareserving,theinternaltechnologiesandprocessestheyareusing.Tryandthinkbeyondtoday’sstoryandexploreinterestingandchallengingfeaturesofthefuture–wherearethethreatsandopportunities?Summariseandfeedbackthesepicturesinashortpresentation.(N.B.encouragethemtobecreativeandcompellinginthesestoriesofthefuture–seetheTACITresourcesonStorytellingforwaysofdoingthis).Variationsonthistheme:
1. Getthemtoprepareanewsfeatureoffiveminutesdurationwhichdescribestheircompanyin8year’stime–whatit’sdoing,thechallengesitfaces,theopportunitiesithasdiscovered,etc.
2. Getthemtopresentthesadstoryofhowtheircompanyfailedtosurviveandwhatfeaturesledtoitsdownfall
3. As2butinsteadtheysurvivedamajorchallengebecausetheydid….?4. Timemachine–theyhavejustemergedformatimemachinewithmessagesfrom8
yearsintothefuture.Whatarethekeypoints,thelessonsthecompanyneedstolearn?
Thepurposeofthisactivityistogetthegroupsintoamodewhichexplorespossiblefutures,albeitinasomewhatunstructuredfashion.
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
Session2:SystematicexplorationoffuturepossibilitiesTiming:45-60minutesIfpossiblegetthemtoworkonpreparationof8yearpicturesofthefuturebasedonusingthetoolsandresources(especially‘Myfutureagenda’)availableontheFutureAgendawebsite.https://www.futureagenda.org/Ifthisisnotpossiblethentryandgetthemtowatch/explorethesefuturepicturesduringtheworkshopsessionandthenprovideshortfeedbackonthekeyinsightstheywouldtakeformtheirreview.Whatdotheyseeasthebiggestareasofthreat?Andofopportunity?BreakSession3:BuildingscenariosTimingUsingtheinformationexploredinsession2drawout3mini-stories–scenarios–fortheirorganization8yearsfromnow.Onewillbepositive,successful,richinopportunity.Onewillbenegative,fullofthreatsandwithapooroutlook.Andonewillbeaneutralpictureinwhichthereareboththreatsandopportunities.Exploreandpresentthesetotherestoftheclass,highlightingthreeemergingopportunities(inorderofpriority)whichmightrepresentinnovationpossibilitiesinthis8yearfutureBreakSession4:ExtractinginnovationopportunitiesTiming:90minutes
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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA
Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018
Takethemostpromisingoftheseideasandelaborateit,buildingabusinesscasearoundit.(Usetheinnovator’sstoryboardortheBusinessModelCanvasorothertoolstohelpwiththis).Developtheideaandchallenge/explorehowitcouldbemadereal.Whatarethechallengesindoingsoandwhatwouldyouneedtodotobringthisfutureabout?BreakSession5:RoadmappingTiming:45minutes
Usingtheroadmappinghand-outdevelopatime-basedactionplan–aroadmap–whichstartsformtodayandidentifiesthestepsneededtotaketheorganizationforwardtothepositioninwhichitcanexploittheopportunityidentified.Session6:PitchingandreviewTiming:45minutesPresenttheideasandroadmaps(maximum5minutespergroup)andbrieflydiscuss/exploreviaQ&AMovethediscussiontoareviewoftheprocessofusingfuturestohelpidentifyandexploreemergingopportunities.
Handout7:FurtheroptionalactivitiesThesecanbefoundhereAcknowledgement
Future-based Learning is a part of EU Erasmus+ Knowledge Alliance TACIT project
EAC/A04/2014, application: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA.This project has
been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects
the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for
any use which may be made of the information contained therein.