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    Series:Series:Series:Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011

    Tablet-only, mobile-first: News orgs native to new platformscoming soonBy Vadim Lavrusik / today / 11 a.m.

    Editors NoteEditors NoteEditors NoteEd ito r s No te : Were wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

    Here are 10 predictions from Vadim Lavrusik, community manager and social

    strategist at Mashable. Mashable, where these predictions first appeared, covers the

    heck out of the world of social media and have an honored place in our iPhone app.

    In many ways, 2010 was finally the year of mobile for news media, and especially so if you consider the iPad a

    mobile device. Many news organizations like The Washington Post and CNN included heavy social mediaintegrations into their apps, opening the devices beyond news consumption.

    In 2011, the focus on mobile will continue to grow with the launch of mobile- and iPad-only news products, but

    the greater focus for news media in 2011 will be on re-imagining its approach to the open social web. The focus

    will shift from searchable news to social and share-able news, as social media referrals close the gap on search

    traffic for more news organizations. In the coming year, news medias focus will be affected by the personalization

    of news consumption and social medias influence on journalism.

    Leaks and journalism: a new kind of media entity

    In 2010, we saw the rise of WikiLeaks through its many controversial leaks. With each leak, the organization

    learned and evolved its process in distributing sensitive classified information. In 2011, well see severalgovernments prosecute WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange for his role in disseminating classified documents and

    some charges will have varying successes. But even if WikiLeaks itself gets shut down, were going to see the rise

    of leakification in journalism, and more importantly well see a number of new media entities, not just mirror

    sites, that will model themselves to serve whistle blowers WikiLeaks copycats of sorts. Toward the end of this

    year, we already saw Openleaks, Brusselsleaks, and Tradeleaks. There will be many more, some of which will be

    focused on niche topics.

    Just like with other media entities, there will be a new competitive market and some will distinguish themselves

    and rise above the rest. So how will success be measured? The scale of the leak, the organizations ability to

    distribute it and its ability or inability to partner with media organizations. Perhaps some will distinguish

    themselves by creating better distribution platforms through their own sites by focusing on the technology and, of

    course, the analysis of the leaks. The entities will still rely on partnerships with established media to distribute

    and analyze the information, but it may very well change the relationship whistleblowers have had with media

    organizations until now.

    More media mergers and acquisitions

    At the tail end of 2010, we saw the acquisition of TechCrunch by AOL and the Newsweek merger with The Daily

    Beast. In some ways, these moves have been a validation in the value of new media companies and blogs that

    have built an audience and a business.

    But as some established news companies traditional sources of revenue continue to decline, while new media

    companies grow, 2011 may bring more media mergers and acquisitions. The question isnt if, but who? I think that

    ust like this year, most will be surprises.

    Tablet-only and mobile-first news companies

    In 2010, as news consumption began to shift to mobile devices, we saw news organizations take mobile

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    seriously. Aside from launching mobile apps across various mobile platforms, perhaps the most notable example

    is News Corps plan to launch The Daily, an iPad-only news organization that is set to launch early 2011. Each

    new edition will cost $0.99 to download, though Apple will take 30%. But thats not the only hurdle, as the

    publication relies on an iPad-owning audience. There will have been 15.7 million tablets sold worldwide in 2010,

    and the iPad represents roughly 85% of that. However, that number is expected to more than double in 2011.

    Despite a business gamble, this positions news organizations like The Daily for growth, and with little

    competition, besides news organizations that repurpose their web content. Weve also seen the launch of an iPad-

    only magazine with Virgins Project and of course the soon-to-launch News.me social news iPad application from

    Betaworks.

    But its not just an iPad-only approach, and some would argue that the iPad isnt actually mobile; its leisurely

    (yes, Mark Zuckerberg). In 2011, well see more news media startups take a mobile-first approach to launching

    their companies. This sets them up to be competitive by distributing on a completely new platform, where users

    are more comfortable with making purchases. Were going to see more news companies that reverse the typical

    model of website first and mobile second.

    Location-based news consumption

    In 2010, we saw the growth of location-based services like Foursquare, Gowalla and SCVNGR. Even Facebook

    entered the location game by launching its Places product, and Google introduced HotPot, a recommendation

    engine for places and began testing it in Portland. The reality is that only 4% of online adults use such serviceson the go. My guess is that as the information users get on-the-go info from such services, theyll becomes more

    valuable and these location-based platforms wil l attract more users.

    Part of the missing piece is being able to easily get geo-tagged news content and information based on your GPS

    location. In 2011, with a continued shift toward mobile news consumption, were going to see news organizations

    implement location-based news features into their mobile apps. And of course if they do not, a startup will enter

    the market to create a solution to this problem or the likes of Foursquare or another company will begin to pull in

    geo-tagged content associated with locations as users check in.

    Social vs. search

    In 2010, we saw social media usage continue to surge globally. Facebook alone gets 25% of all U.S. pageviewsand roughly 10% of Internet visits. Instead of focusing on search engine optimization (SEO), in 2011 well see

    social media optimization become a priority at many news organizations, as they continue to see social close the

    gap on referrals to their sites.

    Ken Doctor, author ofNewsonomics and news industry analyst at Outsell, recently pointed out that social

    networks have become the fastest growing source of traffic referrals for many news sites. For many, social sites

    like Facebook and Twitter only account for 10% to 15% of their overall referrals, but are number one in growth.

    For news startups, the results are even more heavy on social. And of course, the quality of these referrals is often

    better than readers who come from search. They generally yield more pageviews and represent a more loyal

    reader than the one-off visitors who stumble across the site from Google.

    The death of the foreign correspondent

    What weve known as the role of the foreign correspondent will largely cease to exist in 2011. As a result of

    business pressures and the roles the citizenry now play in using digital technology to share and distribute news

    abroad, the role of a foreign correspondent reporting from an overseas bureau may no longer be central to how

    we learn about the world, according to a recent study by the Reuters Institute for the Study of of Journalism. The

    light in the gloomy assessment is that there is opportunity in other parts of the world, such as Asia and Africa,

    where media is expanding as a result of economic and policy stability, according to the report. In 2011, well see

    more news organizations relying heavily on stringers and, in many cases, social content uploaded by the citizenry.

    The syndication standard and the ultimate curators

    Syndication models will be disrupted in 2011. As Clay Shirky recently predicted, more news outlets will get out of

    the business of re-running the same story on their site that appeared elsewhere. Though this is generally true,

    the approach to syndication will vary based on the outlet. The reality is that the content market has become

    highly fragmented, and if content is king, then niche is certainly queen. Niche outlets, which were once curators of

    original content produced by established organizations, will focus more on producing original content. While

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    established news brands, still under pressure to produce a massive amount of content despite reduced staff

    numbers, will become the ultimate curators. This means they will feature just as much content, but instead

    through syndication partners.

    You already see this taking place on sites like CNN.com or NYTimes.com, both of whose technology sections

    feature headlines and syndicated content from niche technology publications. In this case, it wont only be the

    reader demand for original content that drives niche publications to produce more original content, but also its

    relationship with established organizations that strive to uphold the quality of their content and the credibility of

    their brand. Though original content will be rewarded, specialized, niche publications could benefit the most from

    the disruption.

    Social storytelling becomes reality

    In 2010, we saw social content get weaved into storytelling, in some cases to tell the whole story and in other

    cases to contextualize news events with curation tools such as Storify. We also saw the rise of social news

    readers, such as Flipboard and Pulse mobile apps and others.

    In 2011, well not only see social curation as part of storytelling, but well see social and technology companies

    getting involved in the content creation and curation business, helping to find the signal in the noise of

    information.

    Weve already heard that YouTube is in talks to buy a video production company, but it wouldnt be a surprise forthe likes of Twitter or Facebook to play a more pivotal role in harnessing its data to present relevant news and

    content to its users. What if Facebook had a news landing page of the trending news content that users are

    discussing? Or if Twitter filtered its content to bring you the most relevant and curated tweets around news

    events?

    News organizations get smarter with social media

    In 2010, news organizations began to take social media more seriously and we saw many news organizations hire

    editors to oversee social media. USA Today recently appointed a social media editor, while The New York Times

    dropped the t itle, and handed off the ropes to Aron Pilhofers interactive news team.

    The Times move to restructure its social media strategy, by going from a centralized model to a decentralized

    one owned by multiple editors and content producers in the newsroom, shows us that news organizations are

    becoming more sophisticated and strategic with their approach to integrating social into the journalism process.

    In 2011, were going to see more news organizations decentralize their social media strategy from one person to

    multiple editors and journalists, which will create an integrated and more streamlined approach. It wont just be

    one editor updating or managing a news organizations process, but instead news organizations will work toward a

    model in which each journalist serves as his or her own community manager.

    The rise of interactive TV

    In 2010, many people were introduced to Internet TV for the first time, as buzz about the likes of Google TV, iTV,

    Boxee Box and others proliferated headlines across the web. In 2011, the accessibili ty to Internet TV willtransform television as we know it in not only the way content is presented, but it will also disrupt the dominance

    traditional TV has had for years in capturing ad dollars.

    Americans now spend as much time using the Internet as they do watching television, and the reality is that half

    are doing both at the same time. The problem of being able to have a conversation with others about a show

    youre watching has existed for some time, and users have mostly reacted to the problem by hosting informal

    conversations via Facebook threads and Twitter hashtags. Companies like Twitter are recognizing the problem and

    finding ways to make the television experience interactive.

    Its not only the interaction, but the way we consume content. Internet TV will also create a transition for those

    used to consuming video content through TVs and bring them to the web. That doesnt mean that flat screens are

    going away; instead, they will only become interconnected to the web and its many content offerings.

    The Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard

    1 Francis Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138

    Phone: 617-495-2237, fax: 617-495-8976

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    Copyright and licensing information / Some rights reserved

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