1  

Supporting information

Table S1 A list of the CMIP5 models used in this study  

Model Institution Resolution (Lon×Lat)

1. ACCESS1.0 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Australia

1.875×1.25 2. ACCESS1.3 1.875×1.25 3. BCC-CSM1.1 Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration 2.81×2.77 4. CanESM2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada 2.81×2.79 5. CCSM4 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA 1.25×0.9 6. CMCC-CM Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy 0.75×0.75 7. CMCC-CMS 1.875×1.86

8. CNRM_CM5 Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo-France, France 1.41×1.40

9. CSIRO_Mk3.6.0 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia 1.875×1.86

10. FGOALS_g2 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University, China 2.8×2.8

11. GFDL-ESM2M NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 2.5×2.0 12. GFDL-ESM2G 2.5×2.0 13. HadGEM2_CC Met Office Hadley Centre, UK 1.875×1.25 14. INM-CM4 Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia 2.0×1.5 15. IPSL-CM5A-LR

Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France 3.75×1.875

16. IPSL-CM5A-MR 2.5×1.25 17. IPSL-CM5B-LR 3.75×1.875 18. MIROC-ESM Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of

Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

2.81×1.77 19. MIROC-ESM-CHEM 2.81×1.77 20. MIROC5 1.41×1.39 21. MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany 1.875×1.85 22. MPI-ESM-MR 1.875×1.85 23. MRI-CGCM3 Meteorological Research Institute, Japan 1.125×1.125 24. NorESM1-M Norwegian Climate Centre 2.5×1.875

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Figure S1. Historical number of AR days versus jet position (top row) and speed (bottom row) in

spring for two latitudinal bins (35-40°N, 55-60°N). Each black dot corresponds to one CMIP5

model whereas the triangles of different colors denote the reanalysis datasets. An asterisk

indicates statistically significant correlations shown in red.

  3  

Figure S2. Same as Figure S1 but applies to summer for latitudinal bin 50-55°N

Figure S3. Same as Figure S1 but applies to fall for three latitudinal bins from 40 to 55 degrees

north

  4  

Figure S4. Number of seasonal AR days at present (1975-2004) and future (2070-2099) from CMIP5 MME. For the detection of future atmospheric rivers, future 85th percentile of IVT was used as threshold.