table a1: list of self-determination disputes (1960-2005)

1

Table A1: List of Self-Determination Disputes (1960-2005)

Country SD group Number of civil war onsets Region

Afghanistan Tajiks 2 South Asia

Afghanistan Uzbeks 1 South Asia

Algeria Berbers 0 Middle East/North Africa

Angola Cabindans 3 Sub-Saharan Africa

Australia Aboriginals 0 Oceania

Azerbaijan Armenians 2 (former) Soviet Union

Azerbaijan Lezgins 0 (former) Soviet Union

Bangladesh Chittagong Hill Peoples 1 South Asia

Belgium Flemings 0 Western Europe

Belgium Walloons 0 Western Europe

Bhutan Lhotshampas 0 South Asia

Bosnia Croats 1 Eastern Europe

Bosnia Serbs 1 Eastern Europe

Brazil Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America

Cameroon Westerners 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Canada Indigenous Peoples 0 North America

Canada Quebecois 0 North America

Chad Southerners 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Chile Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America

China Mongols 0 East Asia

China Tibetans 0 East Asia

China Uighers 0 East Asia

Colombia Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America

Comoros Anjouanese 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Congo-Kinshasa Bakongo 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Congo-Kinshasa Lunda and Yeke 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Croatia Serbs 1 Eastern Europe

Cyprus Turkish Cypriots 1 Middle East/North Africa

Djibouti Afars 2 Sub-Saharan Africa

Ecuador Lowland Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America Equatorial Guinea Bubis 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia Afars 2 Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia Eritreans 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia Oromos 2 Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia Somalis 3 Sub-Saharan Africa

Finland Saami 0 Western Europe

France Basque 0 Western Europe

2

France Bretons 0 Western Europe

France Corsicans 0 Western Europe

Georgia Abkhazians 1 (former) Soviet Union

Georgia Adzhars 0 (former) Soviet Union

Georgia South Ossetians 2 (former) Soviet Union

India Assamese 2 South Asia

India Bodos 2 South Asia

India Kashmiri Buddhist Ladakhis 0 South Asia

India Kashmiri Hindus 0 South Asia

India Kashmiri Muslims 1 South Asia

India Mizos 1 South Asia

India Nagas 3 South Asia

India Reang (Bru) 0 South Asia

India Sikhs 1 South Asia

India Tripuras 2 South Asia

Indonesia Acehnese 2 East Asia

Indonesia East Timorese 3 East Asia

Indonesia Papuans 3 East Asia

Iran Kurds 4 Middle East/North Africa

Iraq Kurds 3 Middle East/North Africa

Israel Palestinians 1 Middle East/North Africa

Italy Sardinians 0 Western Europe

Italy South Tyrolians 0 Western Europe

Kazakhstan Russians 0 (former) Soviet Union

Kyrgyzstan Uzbeks 0 (former) Soviet Union

Laos Hmong 0 East Asia

Macedonia Albanians 0 Eastern Europe

Mali Tuaregs 2 Sub-Saharan Africa

Mexico Indigenous Peoples (non-Mayan or Zapotecs) 0 South/Latin America

Moldova Gagauz 0 (former) Soviet Union

Moldova Trans-Dniester Slavs 1 (former) Soviet Union

Morocco Saharawis 1 Middle East/North Africa

Myanmar Chin/Zomis 0 East Asia

Myanmar Kachins 1 East Asia

Myanmar Karaenni 3 East Asia

Myanmar Karens 2 East Asia

Myanmar Mons 2 East Asia

Myanmar Rohingyas 2 East Asia

Myanmar Shan 3 East Asia

3

Myanmar Wa 1 East Asia

Namibia East Caprivians 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Nicaragua Indigenous Peoples and Creoles 0 South/Latin America

Niger Tuaregs 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria Ibos 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria Ijaw 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria Ogoni 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria Oron 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria Yoruba 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Norway Saami 0 Western Europe

Pakistan Baluchis 1 South Asia

Pakistan Bengalis 1 South Asia

Pakistan Pashtuns 0 South Asia

Pakistan Sarakis 0 South Asia

Pakistan Sindhis 0 South Asia Papua New Guinea Bougainvilleans 1 Oceania

Peru Lowland Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America

Philippines Igorots 0 East Asia

Philippines Moros 2 East Asia

Romania Magyars 0 Eastern Europe

Russia Buryat 0 (former) Soviet Union

Russia Chechens 2 (former) Soviet Union

Russia Kumyks 0 (former) Soviet Union

Russia Lezgins 0 (former) Soviet Union

Russia Tatars 0 (former) Soviet Union

Russia Yakut 0 (former) Soviet Union

Senegal Casamacias 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Slovakia Hungarians 0 Eastern Europe

Somalia Isaaq 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Somalia Puntland Darods 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa Afrikaners 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa Khoisan 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa Zulus 1 Sub-Saharan Africa

Spain Basques 3 Western Europe

Spain Catalans 0 Western Europe

Sri Lanka Muslims 0 South Asia

Sri Lanka Tamils 1 South Asia

Sudan Nuba 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Sudan Southerners 2 Sub-Saharan Africa

Sweden Saami 0 Western Europe

Switzerland Jurassians 0 Western Europe

4

Taiwan Aboriginal Taiwanese 0 East Asia

Tanzania Zanzibaris 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Thailand Malay-Muslims 1 East Asia Trinidad and Tobago Tobagonians 0 South/Latin America

Turkey Kurds 1 Middle East/North Africa

Uganda Baganda 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Ukraine Crimean Russians 0 (former) Soviet Union

Ukraine Crimean Tatars 0 (former) Soviet Union

United Kingdom Catholics 2 Western Europe

United Kingdom Cornish 0 Western Europe

United Kingdom Scots 0 Western Europe

United States Indigenous Peoples 0 North America

United States Native Hawaiians 0 North America

United States Puerto Ricans 0 North America

Uzbekistan Tajiks 0 (former) Soviet Union

Vietnam Montagnards 0 East Asia

Yugoslavia Albanians 0 Eastern Europe

Yugoslavia Croats 1 Eastern Europe

Yugoslavia Hungarians 0 Eastern Europe

Yugoslavia Kosovar Albanians 1 Eastern Europe

Yugoslavia Montenegrins 0 Eastern Europe

Yugoslavia Sandzak Muslims 0 Eastern Europe

Yugoslavia Slovenes 1 Eastern Europe

Zambia Lozi 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

Zimbabwe Ndebele 0 Sub-Saharan Africa

5

Table A2: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset

Condemnations Force Renewals

All First All First

Direct respective action 0.216 1.974*** 0.00492 0.234*

(0.195) (0.327) (0.160) (0.133)

Other direct actions -0.0434 0.153 -0.0139 0.149**

(0.0367) (0.105) (0.125) (0.0750)

Indirect respective action -0.0656 1.830*** 0.0884

(0.200) (0.568) (0.0673)

Other indirect actions -0.0412 -1.747*** -0.0921* -0.00919

(0.0793) (0.602) (0.0483) (0.0762)

Factions (logged) 1.035*** 0.940*** 1.035*** 0.871***

(0.201) (0.267) (0.203) (0.269)

Previous concessions -0.311 -0.710 -0.291 -0.639

(0.258) (0.436) (0.265) (0.426)

Democracy -0.586** -0.641* -0.661** -0.796**

(0.290) (0.377) (0.299) (0.372)

Neighboring kin groups 0.615** 0.342 0.612** 0.141

(0.264) (0.406) (0.268) (0.391)

GDP per capita (logged) -0.149 -0.371** -0.158 -0.277

(0.109) (0.188) (0.110) (0.197)

Number of groups 0.0756** 0.0288 0.0772** 0.0474

(0.0328) (0.0380) (0.0335) (0.0400)

Economic discrimination 0.0363 -0.0251 0.0199 0.0300

(0.0884) (0.151) (0.0915) (0.154)

Risk time -0.369*** -0.349*** -0.365*** -0.368***

(0.0651) (0.101) (0.0640) (0.104)

Risk time squared 0.0164*** 0.0146*** 0.0162*** 0.0163***

(0.00371) (0.00495) (0.00368) (0.00523)

Risk time cubed -0.000207*** -0.000166** -0.000204*** -0.000196***

(5.80e-05) (6.59e-05) (5.80e-05) (7.12e-05)

Constant -2.261** -0.0988 -2.164** -0.807

(0.977) (1.646) (0.998) (1.760)

Observations 2334 1869 2334 1835

Robust standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test

6


Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations Force Renewal

Direct respective action -1.503** 0.403 2.921*** 0.221 0.0175

(0.692) (0.247) (1.058) (0.212) (0.183)

Other direct actions 0.208*** -0.0178 -0.0816 -0.0420 -0.0191

(0.0758) (0.0217) (0.0694) (0.0352) (0.140)

Indirect respective action 0.259 -4.387** -0.380** -0.0600 0.0941

(0.442) (1.733) (0.164) (0.194) (0.0740)

Other indirect actions -0.0735 0.0236 0.0246 -0.0279 -0.0781

(0.0807) (0.0479) (0.0387) (0.0750) (0.0489)

Factions (logged) 1.127*** 1.036*** 1.114*** 1.110*** 1.101***

(0.227) (0.230) (0.222) (0.227) (0.227)

Previous Concessions -0.259 -0.242 -0.224 -0.285 -0.271

(0.262) (0.262) (0.260) (0.262) (0.270)

Democracy -0.608** -0.565* -0.680** -0.640** -0.691**

(0.301) (0.297) (0.322) (0.305) (0.317)

Neighboring kin groups 0.713*** 0.738*** 0.664** 0.680** 0.666**

(0.262) (0.269) (0.272) (0.268) (0.271)

GDP per capita (logged) 0.0911 0.0558 0.0713 0.0427 0.0204

(0.143) (0.136) (0.156) (0.147) (0.158)

Number of groups 0.0616* 0.0630* 0.0671** 0.0614* 0.0646*

(0.0339) (0.0337) (0.0342) (0.0354) (0.0351)

Economic discrimination 0.0216 0.0139 0.0141 0.0118 0.000996

(0.101) (0.0998) (0.102) (0.0988) (0.103)

Cold War 0.514 0.419 0.485 0.421 0.386

(0.316) (0.311) (0.313) (0.311) (0.313)

Eastern Europe 0.462 0.369 0.241 0.390 0.461

7

(0.472) (0.507) (0.540) (0.490) (0.514)

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.967* 0.951* 0.757 0.804 0.779

(0.562) (0.568) (0.653) (0.609) (0.651)

Asia 0.794 0.761 0.650 0.672 0.661

(0.490) (0.510) (0.545) (0.521) (0.550)

Risk time -0.378*** -0.366*** -0.358*** -0.368*** -0.365***

(0.0638) (0.0619) (0.0644) (0.0642) (0.0632)

Risk time squared 0.0166*** 0.0159*** 0.0156*** 0.0161*** 0.0160***

(0.00375) (0.00351) (0.00376) (0.00373) (0.00371)

Risk time cubed -0.000210*** -0.000200*** -0.000196*** -0.000203*** -0.000202***

(6.04e-05) (5.48e-05) (6.02e-05) (5.91e-05) (5.96e-05)

Constant -4.887*** -4.509*** -4.610*** -4.326*** -4.126**

(1.485) (1.420) (1.686) (1.544) (1.680)

Observations 2334 2334 2334 2334 2334



8



Direct respective action -1.251* 0.445* 3.098*** 0.230 0.00677

(0.696) (0.246) (1.194) (0.208) (0.159)

Other direct actions 0.192** -0.00505 -0.0648 -0.0277 0.00372

(0.0800) (0.0200) (0.0677) (0.0328) (0.127)

Indirect respective action 0.166 -4.550*** -0.290 -0.00811 0.0792

(0.433) (1.678) (0.177) (0.200) (0.0680)

Other indirect actions -0.0499 0.0423 0.0232 -0.0344 -0.0680

(0.0714) (0.0549) (0.0374) (0.0768) (0.0570)

Factions (logged) 1.053*** 0.981*** 1.053*** 1.052*** 1.046***

(0.200) (0.198) (0.200) (0.201) (0.203)


(0.258) (0.257) (0.255) (0.258) (0.264)

Democracy -0.457 -0.406 -0.475 -0.501 -0.584*

(0.316) (0.316) (0.333) (0.312) (0.324)

Neighboring kin groups 0.696*** 0.705*** 0.633** 0.656** 0.643**

(0.266) (0.265) (0.273) (0.267) (0.270)

GDP per capita (logged) -0.194 -0.227* -0.193 -0.196 -0.192

(0.119) (0.121) (0.121) (0.120) (0.119)

Number of groups 0.0804** 0.0840*** 0.0813** 0.0762** 0.0777**

(0.0324) (0.0318) (0.0340) (0.0330) (0.0336)


(0.0911) (0.0899) (0.0919) (0.0899) (0.0924)

Peacekeeping Operation -0.563 -0.705 -0.579 -0.509 -0.399

(0.537) (0.612) (0.552) (0.523) (0.526)

Risk time -0.379*** -0.369*** -0.361*** -0.372*** -0.367***

9

(0.0648) (0.0634) (0.0655) (0.0654) (0.0641)


(0.00365) (0.00347) (0.00368) (0.00366) (0.00362)

Risk time cubed -0.000216*** -0.000208*** -0.000205*** -0.000210*** -0.000206***

(5.71e-05) (5.25e-05) (5.75e-05) (5.66e-05) (5.65e-05)

Constant -2.008** -1.756* -2.034* -1.909* -1.906*

(1.016) (1.016) (1.043) (1.033) (1.040)

Observations 2334 2334 2334 2334 2334



10



Direct respective action -1.413** 0.349 2.789*** 0.234 0.00629

(0.700) (0.230) (0.972) (0.189) (0.163)

Other direct actions 0.190** -0.0205 -0.0764 -0.0448 -0.0122

(0.0767) (0.0220) (0.0650) (0.0353) (0.128)

Indirect respective action 0.00148 -3.695** -0.487*** -0.0751 0.0974

(0.507) (1.551) (0.161) (0.207) (0.0754)

Other indirect actions -0.0610 -0.00458 0.0170 -0.0482 -0.103**

(0.0904) (0.0508) (0.0392) (0.0829) (0.0510)

Factions (logged) 1.023*** 0.949*** 1.035*** 1.027*** 1.027***

(0.199) (0.200) (0.199) (0.199) (0.202)


(0.252) (0.253) (0.249) (0.252) (0.259)

Democracy -0.537* -0.507* -0.587** -0.568** -0.661**

(0.289) (0.287) (0.296) (0.285) (0.295)

Neighboring kin groups 0.638** 0.617** 0.585** 0.604** 0.603**

(0.253) (0.255) (0.264) (0.258) (0.262)

GDP per capita (logged) -0.166 -0.165 -0.170 -0.171 -0.189*

(0.110) (0.105) (0.114) (0.110) (0.115)

Number of groups 0.0691** 0.0750** 0.0680* 0.0659** 0.0650*

(0.0327) (0.0319) (0.0348) (0.0330) (0.0342)

Economic discrimination 0.00114 0.0173 -0.00731 -0.00379 -0.0314

(0.0908) (0.0910) (0.0972) (0.0918) (0.0966)

Group Size 0.853 0.461 0.745 0.708 0.473

(1.470) (1.474) (1.505) (1.474) (1.490)

11

Oil/Gas reserves 0.0377 0.0238 0.0424 0.0370 0.0418

(0.0265) (0.0282) (0.0303) (0.0283) (0.0292)

Risk time -0.377*** -0.367*** -0.360*** -0.368*** -0.362***

(0.0644) (0.0630) (0.0652) (0.0651) (0.0640)


(0.00373) (0.00355) (0.00379) (0.00374) (0.00372)

Risk time cubed -0.000216*** -0.000207*** -0.000206*** -0.000208*** -0.000205***

(5.89e-05) (5.50e-05) (6.02e-05) (5.87e-05) (5.88e-05)

Constant -2.288** -2.210** -2.275** -2.178** -1.986**

(0.968) (0.934) (1.008) (0.961) (1.009)

Observations 2,230 2,230 2,230 2,230 2,230

Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test

12

Table A6: Original Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset (showing cubic polynomial of risk time)

Diplomacy New Force Sanctions

All First All First All First

Direct respective action -1.358** -5.434** 0.345 -0.0148 2.756***

(0.690) (2.165) (0.231) (0.405) (0.965)

Other direct actions 0.180** 0.657*** -0.0198 0.214* -0.0781 0.159

(0.0762) (0.185) (0.0223) (0.117) (0.0660) (0.123)

Indirect respective action 0.0723 -1.552 -3.847** -4.477* -0.411*** -0.201

(0.496) (1.014) (1.582) (2.638) (0.157) (0.301)

Other indirect actions -0.0616 0.149 0.00442 0.000328 0.0128 -0.0193

(0.0866) (0.136) (0.0472) (0.0730) (0.0375) (0.0429)

Factions (logged) 1.030*** 0.945*** 0.957*** 0.842*** 1.037*** 0.864***

(0.200) (0.267) (0.199) (0.272) (0.200) (0.261)

Previous concessions -0.283 -0.587 -0.253 -0.622 -0.258 -0.598

(0.257) (0.426) (0.257) (0.425) (0.255) (0.442)

Democracy -0.553* -0.826** -0.523* -0.782** -0.590** -0.761**

(0.292) (0.382) (0.289) (0.376) (0.300) (0.380)

Neighboring kin groups 0.648** 0.176 0.641** 0.176 0.591** 0.120

(0.260) (0.388) (0.258) (0.397) (0.269) (0.397)

GDP per capita (logged) -0.143 -0.345* -0.158 -0.295 -0.140 -0.307

(0.110) (0.195) (0.104) (0.198) (0.111) (0.201)

Number of groups 0.0788** 0.0430 0.0823*** 0.0503 0.0796** 0.0448

(0.0320) (0.0398) (0.0314) (0.0392) (0.0337) (0.0404)

Economic discrimination 0.0427 0.0154 0.0429 0.0110 0.0424 0.0135

(0.0899) (0.156) (0.0882) (0.154) (0.0915) (0.156)

Risk time -0.378*** -0.387*** -0.368*** -0.365*** -0.361*** -0.327***

(0.0645) (0.107) (0.0629) (0.104) (0.0653) (0.102)

13

Risk time squared 0.0169*** 0.0172*** 0.0163*** 0.0161*** 0.0161*** 0.0142***

(0.00370) (0.00544) (0.00351) (0.00524) (0.00374) (0.00505)

Risk time cubed -0.000214*** -0.000208*** -0.000206*** -0.000194*** -0.000204*** -0.000169**

(5.84e-05) (7.41e-05) (5.41e-05) (7.09e-05) (5.93e-05) (6.80e-05)

Constant -2.365** -0.321 -2.230** -0.657 -2.409** -0.681

(0.979) (1.738) (0.935) (1.756) (1.011) (1.778)

Observations 2334 1869 2334 1869 2334 1867



14

Table A7: SUR Models of New Armed Conflict Onset

Direct Diplomacy Direct Sanctions

Outcome Direct Diplomacy Outcome Direct Sanctions

Direct Diplomacy -0.263***

(0.0863)

Direct Other Action 0.0412*** 0.0920***

(0.00868) (0.000971)

Direct Sanctions 0.338***

(0.0493)

Direct Other Action 0.00413 0.0302***

(0.00365) (0.00159)

Indirect Active Actions -0.00212 -0.00186*** -0.00152 -0.000346

(0.00162) (0.000437) (0.00160) (0.000757)

Factions (logged) 0.0180*** 0.00128 0.0177*** -0.00113

(0.00540) (0.00150) (0.00534) (0.00260)

Previous Concessions -0.00988 -0.000859 -0.0103 4.03e-05

(0.00833) (0.00231) (0.00826) (0.00401)

Democracy -0.0118 0.00355 -0.0105 -0.0109***

(0.00803) (0.00232) (0.00794) (0.00403)

Neighboring kin groups 0.00242 0.00408** 0.00311 -0.00168

(0.00720) (0.00202) (0.00714) (0.00351)

GDP per capita (logged) -0.00458 -0.00366*** -0.00492 -0.000392

(0.00381) (0.00124) (0.00377) (0.00215)

Number of groups 0.00145 0.000685** 0.00125 0.000260

(0.00102) (0.000284) (0.00101) (0.000492)

Economic discrimination 0.00202 0.000953 0.00140 0.00171

(0.00297) (0.000848) (0.00294) (0.00147)

15

Risk time -0.00818*** -0.00722***

(0.00186) (0.00185)

Risk time squared 0.000325*** 0.000283***

(8.33e-05) (8.27e-05)

Rist time cubed -3.56e-06*** -3.08e-06***

(1.03e-06) (1.02e-06)

Cold War -0.00129 -0.0115***

(0.00231) (0.00400)

Western Democracy 0.00631* 0.0119*

(0.00351) (0.00607)

P-5 State 0.00249 -0.00331

(0.00299) (0.00518)

P-5 Ally 0.000775 0.00415

(0.00228) (0.00394)

Constant 0.0869** 0.0174* 0.0864** 0.00646

(0.0341) (0.0104) (0.0338) (0.0180)

Correlation of the residuals .007 (p=0.93) .043 (p=0.84)

Observations 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,867

Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test

16

Table A8: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset, Direct Actions

Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations

Force Renewal

Direct respective action -1.370** 0.0755 2.833*** 0.228 -0.0249

(0.694) (0.205) (0.929) (0.180) (0.138)

Other direct actions 0.181** -0.00938 -0.0669 -0.0445 0.0153

(0.0764) (0.0191) (0.0570) (0.0359) (0.0967)

All indirect actions -0.0541 -0.0518 -0.0476 -0.0591 -0.0521

(0.0438) (0.0469) (0.0478) (0.0427) (0.0480)

Factions (logged) 1.030*** 1.029*** 1.012*** 1.034*** 1.026***

(0.199) (0.199) (0.196) (0.199) (0.198)


(0.257) (0.258) (0.251) (0.256) (0.263)

Democracy -0.564* -0.595** -0.536* -0.585** -0.599**

(0.292) (0.292) (0.290) (0.289) (0.292)


(0.260) (0.263) (0.266) (0.264) (0.263)

GDP per capita (logged) -0.145 -0.142 -0.138 -0.149 -0.141

(0.108) (0.108) (0.109) (0.109) (0.107)

Number of groups 0.0785** 0.0758** 0.0812** 0.0754** 0.0759**

(0.0318) (0.0323) (0.0326) (0.0325) (0.0323)


(0.0890) (0.0896) (0.0907) (0.0881) (0.0896)

Risk time -0.381*** -0.373*** -0.362*** -0.372*** -0.373***

(0.0645) (0.0636) (0.0640) (0.0640) (0.0627)


(0.00368) (0.00360) (0.00361) (0.00363) (0.00356)

17

Risk time cubed -0.000216*** -0.000209*** -0.000204*** -0.000209*** -0.000209***

(5.79e-05) (5.63e-05) (5.61e-05) (5.68e-05) (5.58e-05)

Constant -2.339** -2.301** -2.446** -2.255** -2.306**

(0.964) (0.970) (0.986) (0.972) (0.966)

Observations 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334



18

Table A9: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset, Indirect Actions

Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations

Force Renewal

Indirect respective action

0.127 -3.296*** -0.390*** -0.1000 0.0732

(0.490) (1.238) (0.146) (0.202) (0.0470)

Other indirect actions -0.0677 0.00323 0.000774 -0.0214 -0.0918*

(0.0905) (0.0453) (0.0351) (0.0789) (0.0478)

All direct actions 0.0346 0.0401 0.0312 0.0333 0.0301

(0.0238) (0.0256) (0.0237) (0.0237) (0.0242)

Factions (logged) 1.026*** 0.960*** 1.052*** 1.028*** 1.032***

(0.200) (0.201) (0.203) (0.201) (0.204)


(0.261) (0.261) (0.263) (0.263) (0.263)

Democracy -0.592** -0.547* -0.661** -0.612** -0.667**

(0.292) (0.288) (0.303) (0.291) (0.299)


(0.263) (0.260) (0.268) (0.264) (0.269)

GDP per capita (logged) -0.140 -0.163 -0.147 -0.144 -0.159

(0.108) (0.104) (0.109) (0.107) (0.110)

Number of groups 0.0824** 0.0870*** 0.0807** 0.0826** 0.0833**

(0.0322) (0.0314) (0.0333) (0.0325) (0.0333)

Economic discrimination

0.0590 0.0553 0.0442 0.0526 0.0363

(0.0903) (0.0891) (0.0905) (0.0892) (0.0913)

Risk time -0.371*** -0.373*** -0.371*** -0.369*** -0.364***

(0.0632) (0.0628) (0.0642) (0.0642) (0.0644)

19


(0.00361) (0.00352) (0.00372) (0.00367) (0.00370)

Risk time cubed -0.000208*** -0.000209*** -0.000209*** -0.000207*** -0.000203***

(5.69e-05) (5.44e-05) (5.91e-05) (5.77e-05) (5.84e-05)

Constant -2.421** -2.247** -2.336** -2.392** -2.256**

(0.976) (0.935) (0.992) (0.965) (0.997)

Observations 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334



20

Figure A1: Differences in control-variable means, comparing observation-years without each type of intervention to those with the intervention

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy

Neighboringkingroups

GDPpercapita(logged)

Numberofgroups

Economicdiscriminaon

Diplomacy,Direct

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


Diplomacy,Indirect

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


NewForce,Direct

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


NewForce,Indirect

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


Sanc ons,Direct

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


Sanc ons,Indirect

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


Condemna ons,Direct

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


Condemna ons,Indirect

21

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


ForceRenewal,Direct

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Facons(logged)

PreviousConcessions

Democracy



Numberofgroups


ForceRenewal,Indirect

table a1: list of self-determination disputes (1960-2005)

Documents