Quarterly reportQ2 2020 market review

VALUES WORTH SHARING

For more than 400 years, the Princes of Liechtenstein have been passionate art collectors. The Princely Collections include key works of European art stretching over five centuries and are now among the world’s major private art collections. The notion of promoting fine arts for the general good enjoyed its greatest popularity during the Baroque period. The House of Liechtenstein has pursued this ideal consistently down the generations. We

make deliberate use of the works of art in the Princely Collections to accompany what we do. For us, they embody those values that form the basis for a successful partnership with our clients: a long-term focus, skill and reliability. www.liechtensteincollections.at

Joseph Höger, detail from “View of Lake Gmunden near Ebensee”, 1836

Landscape painter Josef Höger was closely connected with the Princely House of Liechtenstein through the numerous commissions he received from the family. As a result, an incredible body of his work in watercolour has been preserved in the collections. In his paintings, Höger documented the family’s assets. He also frequently accompanied Prince Alois II von Liechtenstein on his travels, and therefore assumed a very special status. He captured the countries and landscapes through which they travelled, sometimes with astonishingly quick and fresh sketches, but sometimes also in large, detailed presentation drawings that demonstrate the full extent of his skill. Höger›s views of Salzkammergut play an important role here. In his work, the artist painted cities such as Bad Ischl, Gmunden and Hallstatt, as well as the surrounding landscapes in which everyday life in the region is always depicted.

© LIECHTENSTEIN. The Princely Collections, Vaduz–Vienna

A look inside the Princely Collections

During the first half of the year, the outbreak of COVID-19 and the measures taken to counter its spread has

dominated our lives on a global scale. Our first thoughts are to those who have been directly impacted and who

have lost loved ones. With over half a million deaths due to the virus so far, the scale of this tragedy cannot be

overstated. We are thankful to those who are on the front line in the health services and for those that have kept

other essential services operating.

The last quarter has seen a huge disconnect between stock markets and the economic situation that the world

is facing. Whilst the COVID-19 restrictions have caused a collapse in economic activity, equity markets have seen

a strong recovery after the falls experienced in the first quarter. The S&P 500 Index returned over 20%, its best

quarter since 1998, meanwhile US unemployment has more than doubled and the economy contracted. Equity

investors have taken heart from signs of a return to work and progress on vaccines and treatments, combined with

massive monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world.

At a glance

n COVID-19 continues to dominate markets

n Extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus

n Parts of the economy are beginning to resume activity

n Progress on treatment and on potential vaccines

n Equity markets have recovered some of the losses

from Q1 2020

n Dispersion of returns between and within markets

is wide

Q2 2020 summary

Macro summary

Whilst there has been a sharp recovery in markets, the

dispersion of returns this year has been extraordinary. After the

strong second quarter, the S&P 500 is down just 3% for the

year. With the pound falling over that period, that translates to

a positive return for sterling based investors. By way of contrast,

the FTSE 100 Index returned just 9% on the quarter and was

down 16.8% in the first half. The UK market consists of more

resource and fewer technology stocks than the US market. The

dispersion between geographic based indices has been large,

but the dispersion between styles and stocks has also been

extraordinary. Growth stocks have massively outperformed

value. In the US, the Russell 1000 Growth Index was up

9.8% in the first half, meanwhile its value counterpart is

still down 16.2%.

Within these indices there have been stark differences in

returns; some companies have benefitted from the change in

lifestyle, whilst others have suffered dire consequences as a

result of the lockdown. Non-essential high street retailers have

suffered, and many are closing down. However, retailers with a

strong online presence have still benefited from the restrictions.

As an example, Amazon’s share price has risen 49% in the first

half of the year.

Government bonds have benefited from lower interest rates and

a flight to quality this year. Corporate bonds suffered in March

alongside equity markets, but have since recovered, supported

by central bank buying and moves by companies to shore up

their balance sheets. In addition to central bank support for

bond markets, there have been huge fiscal measures to try

to support the economy through the crisis. Schemes such as

the Paycheck Protection Program in the US and the furlough

scheme in the UK have prevented the rise in unemployment

from being much steeper than it could have been. In Europe,

individual countries have taken substantial steps, but the

European Union continues to debate the proposed €750 billion

recovery plan.

As we enter the second half of the year, the COVID-19 situation

appears to be improving in many parts of the world, although

with notable exceptions. Whilst some areas of the US are getting

better, the overall picture is still dire. In some areas, for example

Texas and Florida, intensive care units are reaching full capacity.

In the UK, we have seen a renewed lockdown in Leicester and

can expect other hotspots to emerge in the months to come. On

a more positive note, as we are learning more about the virus, we

are seeing greater progress in terms of both treatments and the

development of a vaccine. Strict lockdown measures have proven

an effective method in reducing the spread of the virus, albeit

they come at an enormous economic cost.

Away from COVID-19, in the second half of the year the

US presidential election will be a focus for investors. Trump’s

handling of the pandemic and the resultant economic recession

has seen his standing in the opinion polls fall sharply. At

present, Joe Biden is the favourite, but he has not had a

strong campaign. The new virus infections are now

concentrated in states that voted Republican, rather than

Democrat, and therefore we may expect a vigorous response

from Donald Trump.

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“ Growth stocks have massively outperformed value. In the US, the Russell 1000 Growth Index was up 9.8% in the first half, meanwhile its value counterpart is still down 16.2%.” Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer

In the UK, the deadline set in UK legislation for an extension

to the Brexit transition passed at the end of June. There

has been little progress on the post-Brexit trade talks, with

regulation and fisheries still major blockages. As we move

towards the year-end, it may focus minds but with governments

occupied with the pandemic response, making any progress

may be difficult.

The pandemic has accelerated many trends that were already

in place. Online shopping, flexible working from home, less

business travel and the use of video conferencing amongst

them. This has led to an enormous dispersion in returns.

Economically, there is talk of V-, W-, U- or L-shaped recoveries.

Within individual companies, we will no doubt see all of these

over time. As markets continue to balance the economic

slowdown with fiscal and monetary stimuli, we expect volatility

to be high and the dispersion of returns to be wide. We

therefore continue to prefer a selective approach to equities

and corporate bonds.

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Fixed income

Although this quarter saw the sharpest global economic

contraction in living memory, investors have been increasingly

comforted by the extraordinary amount of fiscal and monetary

support. In essence, governments around the world have launched

various schemes with the aim to provide support to businesses

and households during the lockdown period, with the hope that

economic activity will resume close to pre-pandemic levels as

lockdowns gradually ease. Focussing too much on backward-

looking economic data is not particularly helpful as this recession

is unlike anything we have previously experienced. There are many

predictions on what shape the recovery will eventually take, but to

a large extent, it depends on how well the virus is curtailed, and

whether consumers will resume normal spending patterns.

Whilst it is no surprise that economic activity collapses when most

people are confined to their homes, the sheer magnitude of the

fall has been bewildering. A case in point is the UK, which suffered

its largest monthly fall in GDP in history during April, with a 20.4%

fall in output relative to March, resulting in the economy shrinking

by over a quarter since the outbreak. Whilst unemployment in

Britain has barely risen, this is primarily a result of the successfully

implemented furlough scheme, which accounted for over a

quarter of the working population as beneficiaries. By contrast,

the US, which opted for small business loans and expanded

unemployment benefits, saw a record 20.8 million job losses

in April, taking the unemployment rate close to 15%. As most

of the developed world is now in a position to reduce their

lockdown measures, notwithstanding the recent resurgence in

the southern US states, economic activity has started to shoot up.

With households broadly supported by government schemes, we

have seen a large pickup in retail sales, raising hopes for a stronger

recovery. Whilst we cannot discount stronger economic activity

over the upcoming quarter, we believe it is unlikely that output will

return to its pre-pandemic level for some time. The fall and more

recent recovery in US unemployment demonstrates just how much

further there is to go, even if we are seeing certain improving

economic signals.

Central banks have been quick to understand the gravity of the

situation. In March, they acted to restore confidence, as they

expanded their balance sheets at a record pace. With such an

uncertain backdrop, and the extraordinary amount of borrowing

required for the fiscal stimulus programs, they continued to provide

increasing support. The European Central Bank (ECB) increased

the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) by

€600 billion to €1.35 trillion, in line with expectations. Southern

European economies were hit extremely hard by COVID-19, and as

the holiday season commences, it is clear these tourist destinations

will continue to suffer as consumers remain understandably

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“ The fall and more recent recovery in US unemployment demonstrates just how much further there is to go, even if we are seeing certain improving economic signals. ” Jeremy Sterngold, Head of Fixed Income

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2000 2004 2008 2016 2020

US employment has fallen dramatically as a result of the coronavirus pandemic

2012

Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LGT Vestra

Mill

ion

Total number of people employed in the US (excluding those employed in the agricultural industry)

anxious. The ECB program did not proceed without setbacks

as the German constitutional court questioned the legitimacy of

its asset purchases, causing some concern about policy limits.

However, robust defences by several parties appear to have

defused the situation, for the time being. On the fiscal front, the

Eurozone package is still facing hurdles, which could limit recovery

prospects for the currency bloc. On an individual country level,

Germany announced a whopping €130 billion fiscal stimulus plan

to restore its economy, abandoning its long-held balanced budget

stance. The Bank of England expanded it purchase program by a

further £100 billion, as was also expected, but a hawkish dissent by

their chief economist, Andy Haldane, meant it had little effect on

the market.

Although the US Federal Reserve did most of the heavy lifting

last quarter, it announced that it would buy so-called “fallen

angels”. These bonds were rated investment grade prior to the

22nd of March but were subsequently downgraded because of

the pandemic. In addition, they moved away from just buying

corporate bonds through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and

started buying individual bonds. This resulted in a strong recovery

for corporate bonds, further aided by governments limiting the

amount of bankruptcies with their fiscal transfers and cheap loans.

This strong performance comes despite a record amount of new

issuance in the investment grade market. Investors are noticing that

corporate behaviour has also shifted in favour of debt holders over

equity holders, as they seek to preserve cash and limit distributions

to focus on balance sheet repair during these uncertain

times. Despite high debt levels, a combination of central bank

intervention and the need to attain favourable funding conditions

has seen the asset class attract substantial inflows.

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Dec ‘19 Jan ‘20 Feb ‘20 Apr ‘20 Jun ‘20

Investment grade and high yield credit average option adjusted spreads have come down from their year-to-date peaks

Mar ‘20 May ‘20

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays, LGT Vestra

Perc

ent

US investment grade credit average option adjusted spread

US high yield credit average option adjusted spread

Equities

UK Equities

In the first three months of the year, the UK stock market

sold off heavily, as it became clear that almost all parts of the

economy would be impacted by coronavirus and the efforts to

contain it. In the second quarter, the FTSE 100 Index rose by

9%. This was not as headline grabbing as the rebound in the

US market, but still represents the best quarterly performance

in a decade.

The rally has been driven by a variety of factors including

bargain hunting, optimism over potential vaccines, and a

recognition that authorities in various key geographies have

responded to the crisis with unprecedented levels of fiscal and

monetary stimulus. Even as the market has recovered some of

its losses, we continue to focus on balance sheet strength and

competitive advantage. We are also mindful of changes in the

corporate landscape, including remote working, existing trends

in automation, e-commerce, remote learning, and digital

leisure, which all seem to be enjoying fresh impetus.

Consensus estimates suggest that UK earnings per share will

fall by 35% or so this year. The eventual outcome may be

worse than that, although a robust recovery in earnings is

expected into 2021 and 2022. Trailing dividends have been

cut by at least 25%, and further falls are likely. One of the

highest profile dividend announcements during the period

came from Royal Dutch Shell. They have been hard hit by a

combination of the recent slump in the oil price and weak

downstream demand. This resulted in a cut to their dividend

for the first time since World War II, as well as launching a cost

cutting initiative to lower their breakeven price to $39 a barrel

to bolster their balance sheet. The reduction in the quarterly

dividend to 16 cents per share, from 47 cents previously,

adds up to a saving of about $10 billion a year. BP has not

responded in kind, and has recently attempted to bolster its

finances through asset sales and new borrowings, but as its

breakeven price is closer to $45 a barrel, it may well be forced

to cut its dividend as well.

Both oil and gas groups are suffering from a shared problem.

The pandemic has impacted heavily on demand and leading

oil nations like Saudi Arabia have not responded with

commensurate cuts in supply. Saudi Arabia has pursued

this strategy in the hope that a low oil price will curtail

production in the supply of oil from onshore ‘shale’ wells in

the United States. They have also been trying to make Russia

more answerable to them. There are some signs that Saudi’s

strategy will work, but because of the level of inventories that

have been built up in recent months, it will take a while for the

oil market to properly correct itself.

In conjunction with renewed Brexit uncertainty, weak earnings

and dividend cuts, the fall in the oil price has resulted in

limited international enthusiasm for UK equities. On the plus

side, however, the UK Government is responding to the fall in

the economy with a historic level of support, and a raft of new

policy initiatives is expected. In addition, UK equities continue

to look cheap relative to alternatives, such as UK Government

bonds. We remain alert to opportunities to pick up good

stocks at discounted prices.

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Jun ‘19 Sep ‘19 Mar ‘19 Jun ‘20

The oil majors have dragged down the performance of the FTSE 100 over the past year

Dec ‘19

Tota

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Source: Bloomberg, LGT Vestra

Royal Dutch Shell A shares

BP

FTSE 100 Index

MSCI World ex UK Index

International Equities

Q2 2020 was the opposite of the old adage of ‘what goes up,

must come down’, as global equities followed their collapse in the

first quarter of the year with a sharp rebound. However, whilst

pretty much every market fell 20% in Q1 2020, the likes of the

European Euro Stoxx 50 Index, which rose 18% in Q2 2020, and

Japan’s Topix Index, which rose 11%, have failed to reverse all of

the damage from the first quarter. Even Brazil’s Ibovespa Index,

which posted an impressive 30% return over the quarter, was

still less than the 37% fall in the previous quarter. By contrast,

the major indices in China have managed to recuperate much

more of their losses, given they fell by less in Q1, as the country

managed to contain the virus with aggressive lockdowns and

contact tracing. In Q2, the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen

indices rose 10% and 14% respectively.

In the US, the S&P 500 rose 21%, which is about the same

amount as it fell by in Q1 2020. Mathematically, however, this still

leaves it underwater year-to-date. Within the US, the technology-

heavy Nasdaq Index rose an astonishing 31% in Q2, more than

making up for the 14% fall in the previous quarter. By the first

week of June, it was back into record high territory.

Rather than ‘everything having changed’ during lockdown, trends

that have been grinding away over the past five to ten years have

sharply accelerated almost overnight. Companies around the world

have suddenly gone from collaborating in an office environment

to working from home. Survey after survey suggests that many

employees want to continue to work from home in the future to

some extent. Working from home could easily become much more

common, even if a vaccine for COVID-19 becomes available.

This is good news for the likes of Microsoft, the world’s largest

company, which has been moving clients from ‘on premise

licenses’ to cloud-based subscription models for the last few

years. This model is well suited for flexible working, and under

these circumstances, it is not surprising that the company posted

a 15% annual growth in revenue in its latest quarter, and claimed

“minimal impact” from the crisis. It rose 29% during Q2 having

been unchanged during the first quarter.

Shopping centres and the high street, which were already

losing the race against online shopping, have suffered another

devastating blow. After lockdowns end, many stores across

retail outlets may not re-open. Even the last holdouts against

online shopping have now concluded that sitting on the sofa

ordering two or three sizes of everything is a far easier experience

than actually going to a shop, especially a socially-distanced,

mask-requiring one. Amazon’s share price rose 42% over the

quarter and has added $400 billion to its market capitalisation

in 2020. For some idea of the scale of this – the current market

capitalisation of the largest stock in the UK, Royal Dutch Shell, is

only $125 billion.

As has been the case for many years, we continue to favour

companies with robust balance sheets in less economically

sensitive areas. Many of them have the ability to come out of this

global crisis stronger, with fewer competitors, and the ability to

use their cash for tactical M&A.

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Jun ‘19 Sep ‘19 Mar ‘19 Jun ‘20

The performance of major global equity market indices compared to Microsoft and Amazon over the past year

Dec ‘19

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Source: Bloomberg, LGT Vestra

S&P 500 Index

TOPIX Index

EuroStoxx 50 Index

Microsoft

Amazon

Alternative investments

Property/Infrastructure

Property and infrastructure remain challenged. The listed

property and infrastructure space rallied along with other

risk assets over the quarter, although not to the same extent

as equities. In the UK, the property market was in complete

lockdown over the course of April and saw mortgage approvals

collapse by 70%. Whilst there are some signs of life returning

to the property market as furlough schemes and mortgage

holidays come to an end, we may see renewed downward

pressure. Banks are increasing their deposit requirements,

and tightening lending standards in response to the uncertain

economic outlook. However, there are signs that the Chancellor

may look to support the housing market.

Commercial property also remains challenged. Land Securities,

one of the biggest UK commercial Real Estate Investment Trusts

(REITs), reported that they have collected 60% of the rent due

in June 2020 compared to 94% in the same period of 2019.

The collapse of one of the UK’s biggest retail park owners, Intu

Properties, demonstrates the precarious state of some of the

leveraged property investments. Although it is too soon to call

the end of the office space and hospitality sector, the second

wave of COVID-19 cases seen elsewhere shows that the easing

of lockdown in some of these areas will be slow and gradual,

and the knock-on effects to these sectors will be substantial.

The bankruptcies of the tenants post-government support is less

clear. Therefore, in spite of an attractive yield to government

bonds, property investment opportunities remain uncertain.

We do not recommend chasing yield in this sector yet, given

the lack of clarity of future direction of various segments of

the economy. Specific areas such as data centres, or online

distribution warehouses have seen robust demand.

The biggest change to the post COVID-19 policy response is

the fiscal measures implemented across the western world.

A big focus of this fiscal expansion is in infrastructure, in

particular green infrastructure. Therefore, we believe selective

infrastructure remains an attractive yield option for investors in

the current environment.

Targeted Absolute Return

Targeted Absolute Return strategies took part in the recovery

of financial assets post the economic and financial shock of

the initial lockdown. Most strategies were positive during

the quarter with long/short equity being the most profitable,

followed by event driven. However, the funds that protected

better in the first quarter, participated less in the recovery

during the second quarter.

Pricing dislocations between companies, industries, regions

and asset classes due to the impact of COVID-19 offer

abundant opportunities for some hedge fund strategies. The

enormous health and economic crises of recent months has

been followed by similarly extraordinary policy response.

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“ Attractive opportunities may materialise for nimble managers around these extraordinary policy responses and their relative effectiveness, particularly in the context of diverse macroeconomic starting points for the countries involved.” Meena Lakshmanan, Head of Alternative Investments

Attractive opportunities may materialise for nimble managers

around these responses and their relative effectiveness,

particularly in the context of diverse macroeconomic starting

points for the countries involved. While the shutdown

provided an outline of sustainable winners and losers in a

post-pandemic world, we believe the wide divergence in

how companies will navigate the gradual reopening presents

investment opportunities in equity markets. Merger arbitrage

spreads have come down meaningfully, though they remain

wider than pre-crisis levels. We expect there to be less

corporate activity in traditional merger arbitrage, but possibly

more activity in equity and credit special situations.

At current yield levels, government bonds, which have

traditionally provided diversification in market selloffs, may be

less effective in the next crisis. Under these conditions, further

diversification will become increasingly desirable. However,

the key remains investment in the quality of the investment

team and ensuring that the returns are in line with the stated

objective of the mandate, which requires careful analysis.

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Key market data

Key market data (as at 30 June 2020)

Asset class Level 1m % 3m % 6m % 1y % 3y % 5y % YTD %

Equity indices (total return) *

FTSE All-Share (GBP) 3411 1.5 10.2 -17.5 -13.0 -4.6 15.2 -17.5

S&P 500 (USD) 3100 2.0 20.5 -3.1 7.5 35.8 66.5 -3.1

Euro Stoxx 50 (EUR) 3234 6.4 17.4 -12.4 -5.1 1.1 7.3 -12.4

Nikkei 225 (JPY) 22288 2.0 18.0 -4.7 7.0 18.3 21.7 -4.7

MSCI World (USD) 2202 2.6 19.4 -5.8 2.8 21.5 39.6 -5.8

MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) 513 8.2 18.4 -6.1 -0.3 10.1 23.5 -6.1

MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) 995 7.4 18.1 -9.8 -3.4 5.8 15.1 -9.8

10 year bond yields **

UK 0.17 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -0.7

US 0.66 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3

Germany -0.45 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.3

Japan 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.0

Commodities (USD)

Gold 1781 2.9 12.9 17.4 26.3 43.4 51.9 17.4

Oil 41 16.5 81.0 -37.7 -38.2 -14.1 -35.3 -37.7

Currency

GBP-USD 1.24 0.5 -0.2 -6.5 -2.3 -4.8 -21.1 -6.5

GBP-EUR 1.10 -0.7 -1.9 -6.6 -1.1 -3.1 -21.7 -6.6

EUR-USD 1.12 1.2 1.8 0.2 -1.2 -1.7 0.8 0.2

USD-JPY 107.93 0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.1 -4.0 -11.9 -0.6

Source: Bloomberg, ICE, London Stock Exchange, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Stoxx Tokyo Stock Exchange

* Performance is given on total return indices, but the levels are for the main indices. ** Displayed as absolute changes in yields, rather than percentages.

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“ Investors have taken heart from signs of a return to work and progress on vaccines and treatments, combined with massive monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world.”Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer LGT Vestra

Important informationLGT Vestra LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Our regulation details are set out in the FCA register: Firm Reference No: 471048; register.fca.org.uk/. Registered in England and Wales: OC329392. Registered office: 14 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3NR. LGT Vestra (Jersey) Limited (“LGTVJL”) is incorporated in Jersey and is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission in the conduct of Investment Business and Funds Service Business. Registration number: 102243; www.jerseyfsc.org/industry/regulated-entities, Registered office: 30-32 New Street, St Helier, Jersey, JE2 3TE LGT Vestra US Limited (“LGT Vestra US”) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Registered

Investment Adviser with the US Securities & Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Our regulation details are set out in the FCA register: Firm Reference No: 585547; register.fca.org.uk/ and the SEC Investment Adviser Public Disclosure: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Default.aspx. Registered in England and Wales: 06455240. Registered Office: 14 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3NR. This publication is marketing material. It is for information purposes only. Certain services described herein are not available to retail clients as defined by the FCA or the JFSC, as applicable; please speak to your investment adviser for further clarification in this regard. All services are subject to status and where local regulations permit. The wording contained in this document is not to be construed as an offer, advice, invitation or solicitation to enter into any financial obligation, activity or promotion of any kind. You

are recommended to seek advice concerning suitability from your investment adviser. Any information herein is given in good faith, but is subject to change without notice and may not be accurate and complete for your purposes. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any individual or entities in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to the laws of that jurisdiction or subject any LGT Vestra entity to any registration requirements. When we provide investment advice it is on the basis of a restricted approach that is to say, whilst we review and advise on retail investment products from the whole of the investment market.

Investors should be aware that past performance is not an indication of future performance, the value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and you may not receive back the amount you originally invested.

Quarterly report contributors

Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer

Meena Lakshmanan, Head of Alternatives

James Follows, Head of UK Equities

Russell Harrop, Head of International Equities

Jeremy Sterngold, Head of Fixed Income

For further information please contact:

Esther Clark

+44 (0)20 3207 8007

esther.clark@lgtvestra.com

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www.lgtvestra.com