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Quarterly reportQ1 2019 market review
VALUES WORTH SHARING
For more than 400 years, the Princes of Liechtenstein have been passionate art collectors. The Princely Collections include key works of European art stretching over five centuries and are now among the world’s major private art collections. The notion of promoting fine arts for the general good enjoyed its greatest popularity during the Baroque period. The House of Liechtenstein has pursued this ideal consistently down the generations. We
make deliberate use of the works of art in the Princely Collections to accompany what we do. For us, they embody those values that form the basis for a successful partnership with our clients: a long-term focus, skill and reliability. www.liechtensteincollections.at
Joseph Höger, detail from “View of Lake Gmunden near Ebensee”, 1836
Landscape painter Josef Höger was closely connected with the Princely House of Liechtenstein through the numerous commissions he received from the family. As a result, an incredible body of his work in watercolour has been preserved in the collections. In his paintings, Höger documented the family›s assets. He also frequently accompanied Prince Alois II von Liechtenstein on his travels, and therefore assumed a very special status. He captured the countries and landscapes through which they travelled, sometimes with astonishingly quick and fresh sketches, but sometimes also in large, detailed presentation drawings that demonstrate the full extent of his skill. Höger›s views of Salzkammergut play an important role here. In his work, the artist painted cities such as Bad Ischl, Gmunden and Hallstatt, as well as the surrounding landscapes in which everyday life in the region is always depicted.
© LIECHTENSTEIN. The Princely Collections, Vaduz–Vienna
A look inside the Princely Collections
It has been events outside the UK rather than Brexit that have dominated market moves so far this year.
The year has started with a strong recovery in equity markets following the sharp sell-off seen in the second half
of 2018. This has been fuelled by central banks pulling away from the tightening moves that took place last year.
Whilst US trade policy has not reversed, an expansion of tariffs on Chinese goods has been delayed and the noise
out of Beijing and Washington indicates that a deal may be done in the not so distant future. In the UK, Brexit
has been the main talking point following numerous votes in Parliament and a delay in the Brexit date. It remains
unclear as to what direction Brexit will take but fears of dropping out with no deal have receded.
At a glance
n Equity markets rebounded
n Central banks reversed gear
n Brexit uncertainty persisted
n Trade tensions moderated
n European economy remained weak
n UK equity markets were positive despite Brexit
Q1 2019 summary
Macro summary
Introduction
Whilst Brexit dominates the domestic headlines, the
movement in financial markets has been driven by changes
in central bank policy and eased fears of a slowdown in
economic growth. Throughout the last quarter of 2018, it
was feared that central banks, particularly the US Federal
Reserve (“Fed”), were tightening monetary conditions too
fast. This, together with the US-China trade dispute, was
threatening to slow global economic growth. Whilst there
have been signs of some slower growth, central banks and
Chinese authorities have moved to counter this. Despite
some problems remaining, US-China trade talks appear
to be progressing.
Central banks
The Fed no longer forecasts further rate rises this year and
has announced that it will end its balance sheet reduction
by September 2019. Prior to this, the European Central
Bank (“ECB”) announced another round of cheap loans to
banks. Since central banks have pulled back from tightening
monetary policy, we have seen government bonds generate
positive returns and credit spreads narrow. The Bank of
England raised rates in 2018 but is not expected to do so
again this year. This may change depending on the outcome
of Brexit.
China
In response to weaker growth expectations, China has
announced a stimulus package including tax cuts and
additional spending. There has been sufficient progress on
trade talks with Trump to postpone the additional tariffs
that had been initially proposed. It is possible that a meeting
between Trump and Xi could take place before the end of
April to conclude a trade deal. This has lifted equity market
sentiment and the falls in equity indices in the final quarter of
last year have largely reversed. Given the improved prospects
for global growth, commodities also showed positive returns.
Europe
At the end of last year the Italian government, after much
haggling, agreed a budget with the European Union. This was,
however, dependent on a growing economy. Italian growth
expectations have been revised down to barely positive, which
will inevitably call into question the viability of the budget.
Italy was not the only country under pressure, with France
facing disruption from the widespread Yellow Vest protests
and German manufacturing slowing considerably. The US is
threatening more tariffs on the import of goods from the EU
which, together with Brexit, is adding additional pressure. As
a result, car exports, which are particularly important for the
German economy, have suffered.
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115%
110%
105%
100%
95%
90%
85%
Dec ‘17 Mar ‘18 Jun ‘18 Dec ‘18 Mar ‘19
Rebound in global equity markets in Q1*
Sep ‘18
*Represented by the FTSE All Share Total Return Index, S&P 500 Total Return Index, Euro Stoxx 50 Net Return Index and Nikkei 225 Total Return Index (rebased to 100 at the end of 2017)
Source: Bloomberg, London Stock Exchange, Standard & Poors,Stoxx, Tokyo Stock Exchange
UK
US
Eurozone
Japan
Currency drivers
Brexit
Whilst global markets have largely ignored Brexit, many UK
investors remain fixated by the goings on in Westminster and
Brussels. The value of the pound dipped on the prospect of a
no-deal Brexit, but subsequently recovered when this seemed
less likely. There has been a corresponding move within the
UK equity market, with international stocks outperforming
domestic stocks when the pound is weak and vice versa.
Writing about Brexit is increasingly difficult as the prospects
swing by the hour and the political pundits comment on each
change in strategy. At the end of the quarter, following many
votes in Parliament, we can be sure that MPs do not want a
no-deal Brexit. However, this remains the legal default position
until something passes in Parliament. Having so far rejected
all other propositions, what MPs do want is unclear. There has
already been one delay in the Brexit date and further delays
are possible.
Summary
In spite of Brexit being the primary concern of UK politicians
and Eurocrats in the first quarter, markets have focused on
the good news. We expect that the US will eventually
conclude a trade deal with China and the Fed will only move
to tighten again if economic growth improves substantially.
We therefore remain broadly positive on equity markets for
the quarter ahead.
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GBP USD EUR
Brexitnegotiations
Strongerrelativegrowth
Weakeningeconomic
data
“ Whilst global markets have largely ignored Brexit, many UK investors remain fixated by the goings on in Westminster and Brussels.” Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer
Fixed income
The course of the RMS Titanic provides an apt analogy of
movements in markets over the last two quarters. Towards the
end of last year, investors feared that the ‘full speed ahead’
combination of tight monetary policy and geopolitical risks
would drive the global economy to crash into the proverbial
iceberg. This quarter, central banks appeared to see this
danger on the horizon and quickly changed course by moving
the engines into reverse. The key question now is “has enough
been done to just scrape the iceberg and continue the journey
or is the significant damage yet to come?”
This comparison may be a tad dramatic; however, it does
highlight how extraordinary the shift in monetary policy
has been over the quarter. First and foremost, the Fed, the
most hawkish central bank, last year saw enough economic
momentum to raise rates four times and has now indicated a
path towards modest loosening. Reviewing the timeline more
carefully, the Fed raised interest rates in mid-December but
then proceeded to adopt a “patient” mantra in early January.
This stance was clarified at their March meeting, when it
published its latest median rate expectations (the “Dot plot”).
This indicated no rate hikes this year, a retreat from the two
increases suggested in December, and only one increase next
year. In addition, the Fed revised their growth projections
to be lower this year and detailed when they would stop
shrinking their balance sheet. This quantitative tightening will
see balance sheet reductions decrease in May before stopping
altogether in September. When the Fed announced the
programme in 2017, investors had expected it to end around
2021, therefore demonstrating quite a significant shift. The
Fed cited weaker global growth prospects and tighter financial
conditions as its rationale for the pause. However, we believe
the latter also recognises the difficulty in normalising policy
when other central banks are talking about easing policy.
The ECB finds itself in a more precarious position given that
the currency bloc is barely growing at all, with Italy officially
in recession and Germany just narrowly avoiding one. Recent
manufacturing survey data showed no respite this quarter
and indicates further contraction. Meanwhile, the backward
looking German factory orders weakened to its lowest level
since 2012. Given that the ECB halted its asset purchases
at the end of 2018, it had to find alternative policy tools.
Reversing course would have been seen as correcting a policy
mistake. Firstly, they backtracked on their earlier interest
rate guidance and now anticipate no rate increases until
at least 2020. Secondly, as its long term cheap financing
facilities, Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations
(TLTROs), start to mature later this year, the ECB used the
weakness to announce a third leg of the programme earlier
than anticipated. This surprise was initially taken positively by
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3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Dec ‘15 Dec ‘16 Dec ‘17 Dec ‘18
Developed market sovereign bond yields
Source: Bloomberg
UK
US
Germany
Japan
“ This quarter, central banks appeared to see this danger on the horizon and quickly changed course by moving the engines into reverse.” Jeremy Sterngold, Head of Fixed Income
investors, however quickly faded as the terms were
less favourable, bringing the effectiveness of the measure
into question.
China’s data showed a modest but significant contraction in
manufacturing over the quarter. This stoked fears that the
trade war had already inflicted some damage on the global
economy, despite noise coming from both parties suggesting
that a deal is on the cards. Facing weaker trends, China
cut its reserve requirements for banks as part of a stimulus
package aimed to shore up the economy. The major central
banks have acted swiftly and decisively to change policy in
order to support businesses and the consumer during a more
challenging environment. The hope is that the current soft
patch will be just that.
The pronounced shift across the major central banks as they
came to grips with a slowing global economy led bond yields
sharply lower. Benchmark ten-year German bunds fell back
into negative territory for the first time since 2016. US bond
markets started pricing in a rate cut and ten-year yields fell
below levels of three month bills. This gave further cause for
concern as an inverted yield curve has preceded the last nine
US recessions. In the past, the inversion of the yield curve has
proven to be one of the most reliable warning signals of a
looming recession. However, there is a great deal of debate to
determine which measure is the most important one. Another
closely watched measure, the difference between two year
and ten year borrowing rates, has not yet inverted (see chart
below). Some specific factors may help explain the current
inversion but this amber signal on the health of the economy
is difficult to ignore.
A combination of lower sovereign bond yields and better
sentiment across risk assets has been a tailwind for corporate
bonds. Last quarter investors became concerned that BBB
rated names, which have grown materially, would face
downgrades into non-investment grade as global economic
trends deteriorated. The forced selling activity could
subsequently test liquidity conditions in the market and lead
to large market losses. Central bank actions will result in more
favourable liquidity conditions and companies that faced
significant headwinds (such as General Electric) announced
asset sales and further actions to bolster the balance sheet.
Speculative grade companies benefitted from these trends,
as well as rising commodity prices. Current spread levels are
currently around their three year average, reflecting the more
balanced outlook.
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1.0
0.8
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0.4
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0.0
-0.2
Dec ‘17 Mar ‘18 Jun ‘18 Dec ‘18 Mar ‘19
US yield curves
Sep ‘18
Source: Bloomberg
3m to 10y
2y to 10y
Equities
UK Equities
In total return terms, the FTSE All Share Index rose by 2.7%
in March, the third consecutive month of gains. Over the
quarter, the index was up 9.4%. Dividends accounted for
1.1 percentage points of the total, so the capital growth
component obviously accounted for the bulk of the gain.
Global equities performed slightly better than the UK but the
performance of the FTSE All-Share easily outperformed both
UK corporate and government bonds.
The All Share’s gains in the quarter were seen across the
market cap spectrum, from small caps to large caps. Small
caps excluding Investment Trusts were only up 5.1%, whereas
mid-caps were up 9.8%, and clearly benefitted from political
developments and subsequent hopes of a soft-Brexit outcome.
The top 100 stocks are more internationally exposed, and
could have suffered a little from the general strengthening
of the pound in the quarter, but still enjoyed a gain of 9.5%.
This was a positive move, and in line with previously expressed
views that the alleviation of uncertainty should benefit most
UK shares.
In terms of individual sectors, Mining, Tobacco and Food
Retail were the top positive contributors to overall market
performance, whilst Mobile Telecoms, and Travel & Leisure
had the biggest negative contribution. The Banking sector also
struggled. Lloyds performed strongly, and it was one of the
more obvious beneficiaries of the shift towards hopes for a
‘soft’ Brexit, but HSBC struggled to perform and this weighed
on the sector as a whole.
The solid gain in the market over the quarter means that most
UK investors will have recovered well from the turmoil of last
year. As a reminder, the All-Share ended 2018 down 13.3%
and the FTSE 100 down 12.5%.
The recovery in the market means that the trailing price to
earnings (“PE”) ratio of UK equities is now around 14.4x. It is
slightly above the long-term average, but the earnings yield
(the reciprocal of the PE) remains at 6.9%. Thanks to the fall
in Government bond yields, investors may well be attracted
to the pick-up in yield provided by dividends from UK listed
companies. This can be seen in the chart below.
With over 70% of FTSE 100 earnings coming from markets
other than the UK, the state of the global economy has a
far bigger influence on sentiment. A recent survey of asset
managers by Absolute Strategy Research makes it clear that
most are exuding caution after a big first-quarter recovery in
risk assets (Source: ASR). Brexit and US-China trade talks aside,
investors have shown some concerns about low global growth
and the signal being given by falling bond yields and inverted
yield curves. Over the course of the next quarter, this means
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1
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2006 2008 2010 2014 2018
Gap between FTSE All-Share dividend yield and UK 10y gilt yield
2012 2016
Source: Bloomberg, London Stock Exchange
UK yield gap
“ The solid gain in the market over the quarter means that most UK investors will have recovered well from the turmoil of last year. As a reminder, the All-Share ended 2018 down 13.3% and the FTSE 100 down 12.5%.” James Follows, Head of UK Equities
that investors will focus more than ever on global economic
data, US-China trade negotiations, and what companies have
to say about their first-quarter earnings and growth prospects.
In the context of the UK equity market, we continue to place
emphasis on individual stocks with good balance sheets,
good operational strengths, good prospects, and surplus free
cash flow. Many of these stocks offer high dividend yields,
and we continue to believe that income will be an important
component in the overall returns that are delivered from this
point on. We are alert to the possibility of headwinds from
various political and economic developments and we will
pragmatically adjust our course if the need arises.
International Equities
After equity markets took a tumble in the fourth quarter of 2018,
they sharply reversed course in Q1, posting the best first quarter
return since 2010. The S&P 500 Index in the US was up 13%,
helped by a solid earnings season when Q4 2018 revenues were
up 6% and earnings per share 12% over the previous year.
Despite the ongoing US-China trade talks, investors chose to
see the end of 2018 as an aberration, rather than the new
trend for stocks. Thus, the best performing sectors and stocks
in Q1 were those that fell the most in Q4 2018. The IT sector
rose 19% with the tech-heavy Telecoms Services sector also
up 14%. Facebook rose 27%, Apple 20%, Amazon 19%,
Microsoft 16% and Alphabet (the parent company of Google)
13%. This bounce back is shown in the chart below. All of
these companies reported robust revenue growth during
the quarter, with little or no discernible impact from rising
geo-political tensions and US-China issues. However, earnings
were more mixed as the arms race to build improved data
centres and be at the leading edge in artificial intelligence,
meant huge capital expenditures.
The US government shutdown and market volatility meant
that bank management teams were cautioning that Q1 2019
earnings would see weakness from investment banking.
The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, also hinted that the next
move in US interest rates might be down, rather than up.
This meant that the US banks lagged in rising 8% over the
quarter. Elsewhere it was a case of a rising tide lifting all boats
as Industrials rose 17%, Energy 16%, Consumer Discretionary
15% and Consumer Staples 11%.
Europe rose 12% with Consumer Staples, Technology and
Consumer Discretionary sectors following the US and leading
markets. Banks too, were relative underperformers in rising
only 5%.
In Emerging Markets, the two main indices in China added
over a quarter to their values in the first three months of
the year, shrugging off the lack of action on trade talks, but
clearly anticipating a resolution. Despite being one of the
worst performing equity markets at the end of 2018, Japan’s
Topix only rebounded 6%, perhaps as any US-China trade deal
would leave the country on the outside looking in.
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100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
Oct ‘18 Nov ‘18 Dec ‘18 Feb ‘19 Mar ‘19
Bounce back in US tech stocks in 2019
Jan ‘19
Equally weighted average of Facebook/Amazon/Apple/Microsoft/Alphabet over the last two quarters (rebased to 100 at the end of Q4 2018)
Source: Bloomberg
US Tech stock
Alternative investments
Property/Infrastructure
Over the last quarter, both real estate and infrastructure
investments rallied in line with other risk assets, recovering
most of their 2018 losses. Most notably, the FTSE EPRA
NAREIT Developed Market Total Return Index (a property
index) is currently at an all-time high. This rally has largely
been driven by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman,
Jerome Powell, in January. Forecasts that the Fed plans to
pause rate rises in the near term in order to allow the economy
to expand sparked a positive response from markets. After
nine rate rises since 2015, this announcement (dubbed the
“Fed Pause”) led to a rally in risk assets.
Meanwhile in the UK, the real estate market continues to be
affected by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Structurally,
we have seen that the number of mortgages being approved
remains around 40% below pre-financial crisis levels. Such
low activity has resulted in big swings in price movement.
With that said, annual house price growth year-on-year has
held steady at 2.6%. Saving for a deposit remains problematic
for many looking to buy a property. However, the combined
effect of fewer houses for sale and fewer people looking
to buy continues to support prices in the long-term. The
divergence between the top end of the property market
and the bottom end seems to be narrowing in light of Brexit
uncertainty and tax measures directed at those at the top-end
of the market.
The global real estate cycle is at a mature stage and limited
capital growth is expected. The attraction of real estate is the
yield differential to government bonds. Political risk remains
a concern in certain segments of the infrastructure/property
space. The headwinds for retail and commercial property poses
serious cause for concern given the digital revolution. As a
result, we remain benign about the outlook for property.
In summary, bond yields have come down in the last quarter,
making the income yield on real estate relatively more
attractive. However, the changing nature of commerce
and a slowing economy increases the downside risk
and therefore we recommend a selective approach to real
estate investments.
Targeted Absolute Return
As with the majority of asset classes, Absolute Return has
had a decent first quarter with most strategies recovering
their losses from the second half of 2018. Manager selection
remains critical in this space. Style diversification was less
prominent during the quarter as all styles were positive.
Long/short equity benefitted from the equity rally and the
out performance of growth over value was also a major
contributor. Macro funds and systematic trend following
strategies benefitted from the rally in rates in March. Event
driven strategies benefitted from the completion of deals
during the quarter. Multi-asset funds benefitted from the rally
in bonds and equities. The increase in correlation between
asset classes was less of a concern in this environment where
almost all asset classes were positive.
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“ Therefore, a well-diversified portfolio of alternative strategies should have the potential to dampen the volatility seen within the equity allocation of a balanced portfolio.” Meena Lakshmanan, Head of Alternative Investments
The rally in bond yields has made the risk/reward from current
levels skewed downwards. Therefore, a well-diversified
portfolio of alternative strategies should have the potential
to dampen the volatility seen within the equity allocation
of a balanced portfolio. The Federal Reserve rate rise pause
has temporarily led to an increase in volatility. However, less
growth means that corporate activity will remain high, which
cannot be exploited by traditional long only discretionary
managers. The correlation between equities and bonds, as
we have seen over the last few years, is inconsistent and
unstable; therefore making alternatives an attractive way of
achieving diversification within portfolios. We continue to
favour medium-sized alternative managers who have a flexible
investment process, enhancing their ability to navigate the
current environment.
The liquidity mismatch between fund dealing and underlying
assets can result in unexpected price action, as seen in the
final quarter of 2018. As a result, we are cognisant of the
liquidity profile of our third party funds.
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Key market data
Key market data (as at 31 March 2019)
Asset class Level 1m % 3m % 6m % 1y % 3y % 5y % YTD %
Equity indices (total return) *
FTSE All-Share (GBP) 3978 2.7 9.4 -1.8 6.4 31.3 34.5 9.4
S&P 500 (USD) 2834 1.9 13.6 -1.7 9.5 46.3 67.8 13.6
Euro Stoxx 50 (EUR) 3352 1.8 12.2 -0.7 2.6 21.1 21.2 12.2
Nikkei 225 (JPY) 21206 0.0 6.9 -11.0 0.9 34.2 57.0 6.9
MSCI World (USD) 2108 1.3 12.5 -2.6 4.0 35.6 38.8 12.5
MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) 529 1.5 11.5 1.6 -3.5 37.7 29.5 11.5
MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) 1058 0.8 9.9 1.7 -7.4 35.6 19.8 9.9
10 year bond yields **
UK 1.00 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -1.7 -0.3
US 2.41 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.3
Germany -0.07 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -1.6 -0.3
Japan -0.08 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1
Commodities (USD)
Gold 1292 -1.6 0.8 8.5 -2.5 4.8 0.7 0.8
Oil 68 3.6 27.1 -17.3 -2.7 72.7 -36.5 27.1
Currency
GBP-USD 1.30 -1.7 2.2 0.0 -7.0 -9.2 -21.8 2.2
GBP-EUR 1.16 -0.4 4.5 3.5 2.1 -7.9 -4.0 4.5
EUR-USD 1.12 -1.3 -2.2 -3.3 -9.0 -1.4 -18.5 -2.2
USD-JPY 110.86 -0.5 1.1 -2.5 4.3 -1.5 7.4 1.1
Source: Bloomberg, ICE, London Stock Exchange, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Stoxx Tokyo Stock Exchange
* Performance is given on total return indices, but the levels are for the main indices. ** Displayed as absolute changes in yields, rather than percentages.
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“ It has been events outside the UK rather than Brexit that have dominated market moves so far this year.”Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer LGT Vestra
Quarterly report contributors
Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer
Meena Lakshmanan, Head of Alternatives
James Follows, Head of UK Equities
Russell Harrop, Head of International Equities
Jeremy Sterngold, Head of Fixed Income
For further information please contact:
Louise Blanc
+44 (0)20 3207 8011
Important informationLGT Vestra LLP, LGT Vestra US Limited and LGT Vestra (Jersey) Limited are affiliated financial services companies (each individually an “Affiliate”) together known as “LGT Vestra”.
This document is for informational purposes only and is intended for confidential use by the recipient. It is not to be reproduced, copied or made available to others. This document is considered to be a general market commentary and does not constitute advice or a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual clients. This document is not intended and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any investments. You are recommended to seek advice concerning suitability of any investment from your investment adviser.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance; and the value of investments, as well as the income from them can go down as
well as up, and investors may get back less than the original amount invested.
The information and opinions expressed herein are based on current public information we believe to be reliable; but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon as such. Any information herein is given in good faith, but is subject to change without notice. No liability is accepted whatsoever by LGT Vestra or its employees and associated companies for any direct or consequential loss arising from this document. This document is not for distribution outside the European Economic Area.
LGT Vestra LLP is a Limited Liability Partnership registered in England & Wales, registered number OC 329392. Registered Office: 14 Cornhill, London EC3V 3NR. LGT Vestra LLP is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
LGT Vestra US Ltd is a registered Company in
England & Wales, registered number 06455240. Registered Office: 14 Cornhill, London EC3V 3NR. LGT Vestra US Ltd is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Registered Investment Adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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The market views herein are drawn from the minutes of the LGT Vestra LLP Investment Committee and are reviewed and approved by the LGT Vestra US Limited Investment Committee prior to distribution. For further information please contact your investment manager.
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LGT Vestra US Limited14 Cornhill, London EC3V 3NRPhone +44(0)20 3207 [email protected]
www.lgtvestra-us.com