t he 2009 and 2010 m issouri b udget o utlook james r. moody & associates september 3, 2008 1
TRANSCRIPT
THE 2009 AND 2010 MISSOURI BUDGET OUTLOOKJames R. Moody & Associates
September 3, 2008
1
SPECIAL THANKS
Senate Appropriations Staff House Appropriations Staff Missouri Office of Budget and Planning Staff Missouri Department of Economic
Development Staff
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WHOSE VIEW IS CORRECT ON THE MISSOURI BUDGET?
Governor Blunt—Largest budget surplus ever Missouri Budget Project—We are about to fall
off of the cliff The View of Many Legislators—Expenditures
above revenues on a consistent basis, Do we have a structural deficit?
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THE ANSWER
A little bit of all three
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THE SURPLUS Missouri ends each year with a balance that
is a combination of planned cash balances and lapsed appropriations (authority to spend that is not spent)
The cash balance is similar to an individual’s bank account—it does not represent ongoing revenue
Similar to your bank account, the cash balance should not be put into ongoing programs, because it is not supported by ongoing revenue
We will show you how the “surplus” fits into the overall budget picture
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COMPONENTS OF MISSOURI GENERAL FUND
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BASIC BUDGETING 101
What goes up can also come down With our limited revenue stream, it is easy to
define which components could trigger a downturn
Because we rely so heavily on individual income tax and sales tax, there is a direct relationship between general revenue growth and personal income growth
Income tax growth (and decrease) over the past decade has also been driven by taxation of capital gains
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HOW MISSOURI HANDLES CASH FLOW AND BUDGET EMERGENCIES
Missouri has a constitutional “Budget Reserve Fund” equal to 7 ½% of general fund revenues
This fund can be used for cash flow requirements, or as a Rainy Day Fund
If used as a Rainy Day Fund, it must be repaid within three years
Since this fund is available for cash flow and emergencies, budgeting all revenues and beginning balances makes more sense
The Budget Reserve Fund is not a general revenue fund. The general revenue balance referenced here does not include the Budget Reserve Fund
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INTRO TO STATE BUDGETING
Historically Missouri has had nominal balances carried forward, and has budgeted beginning balance and prior year’s lapse
The next year’s beginning balance and lapse are created by expenditure management and the statutory 3% reserve
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THE FISCAL YEAR 1998 BUDGET—A GOOD EXAMPLE OF TRADITIONAL
STATE BUDGETING OF THE GENERAL FUND
(in millions)
Beginning balance
$132.8
Lapse $86.9
Revenue Collections
$5,906.6
Other Resources
$374.5
Total Resources
$6,500.8
(in millions)
Operating Appropriations
$4,612.7
Tax Refunds $536.9
Capital Impr., Deseg, Other Expenditures
$1,351.2
Total Obligations
$6,500.8
Ending Balance
$0
Beginning balance and lapse are completely budgeted
All funds are appropriated and ending balance is zero
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CURRENT CASH BALANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN HISTORIC
AVERAGES
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WHAT SHOULD WE KNOW ABOUT THE TRADITIONAL BUDGETING METHOD
It probably does not work when the beginning balance and lapse are very large
In current circumstances, it could have the effect of putting one-time moneys into ongoing programs
If budgeted, one-time funds should be put into one-time expenditures, such as capital improvements
Many people, including many elected officials, do not understand that the “surplus” is one-time money
Therefore, they suggest putting the one-time money into ongoing programs 12
THE IMPORTANCE OF PERSONAL INCOME TO
THE MISSOURI BUDGET
Missouri derives most of its general fund income from the individual income tax and the sales tax
Growth in these factors is derived primarily from growth in personal income
Personal income does include all earned income and most unearned income, including dividends, interest and rents
Personal income does not include capital gains, and so what is happening with capital gains must be viewed independently from personal income growth 13
MOODY’S RATING SERVICE OUTLOOK FOR MISSOURI
PERSONAL INCOME
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THE RELATIONSHIP OF PERSONAL INCOME AND GENERAL FUND
GROWTH
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INCOME TAX WITHHOLDING COMPARED TO PERSONAL INCOME
GROWTH
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IS THE GR BUDGET GETTING OUT OF BALANCE?
Fiscal Year
Revenues Expend Difference
2006 $7,635.0 $7,219.9 $145.1
2007 $8,015.4 $8,018.2 ($2.8)
2008 $8,312.1 $8,364.9 ($52.8)
2009 $8,618.8 $8,754.9 ($136.1)
2010 $8,754.9 $9,204.4 ($399.5)
Fiscal Year 2010 assumes a 3.4%
revenue growth in FY 2009 and FY 2010, and $350 million
growth in obligations in Fiscal Year 2010
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CAPITAL GAINS SUBJECT TO STATE INCOME TAX
(IN THOUSANDS)
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THOUGHTS ON CAPITAL GAINS
They are not included in personal income, and budget decision-makers should track them separately
The major downturns in state revenues in the early 2000’s were largely driven by a major downturn in capital gains, not by a drop in income tax withholdings
Treatment of capital gains could change at the federal level, but have a direct impact on Missouri’s general fund
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INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX For Fiscal Year 2009, the consensus revenue
estimate is that 66% of general fund revenues will come from the individual income tax
Approximately 72% of all income tax revenues come from employee withholdings
Non-withholding income tax comes in the form of declarations and remittances, and would include income from quarterly estimated payments and annual final payments by self-employed persons, as well as payments of taxes on unearned income such as interest, dividends, and capital gains
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INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX
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Individual income tax withholding has been growing each year since 1999. The shortfalls in income tax in the early 2000were driven by reduced capital gains, not by reduced withholdings
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THOUGHTS REGARDING INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX
WITHHOLDING
The last three years have been strong for income tax withholding (7.0%,5.1%,6.0%).
The four years prior to FY 2006 only averaged 3.3% withholding growth.
Income tax withholding tends to track personal income growth, and Moody’s projects moderate personal income growth in the next few years. That would tend more toward the four years of moderate growth
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SALES TAX GROWTH
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CAUTIONS REGARDING SALES TAX GROWTH
We generally do not tax the products where prices are rapidly rising (food, prescription drugs, utilities)
Some products which we do tax are experiencing price declines (electronics, appliances)
Motor fuel is not subject to the sales tax, and the motor fuel tax is earmarked for transportation. Motor vehicle sales tax also goes to transportation
Continued erosion of the sales tax base due to internet sales
It appears that nominal sales tax growth (or slightly negative growth) will continue
Sales tax is over 23% of the general fund. If it is not growing, the other major component (individual income tax) must outperform for revenues to grow (Note consensus revenue estimate slide)
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FY 2007 Credits Issued--$171 million
FY 2008 Credits Issued--$161 million
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OVERALL TAX CREDIT REDEMPTION
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OTHER BUDGETARY PRESSURES Medicaid inflationary pressures Possible uninsured expansion of coverage Corrections Fully funding the school formula Higher education funding Deferred maintenance Capital improvements Unknown impact of Senate Bill 30 changes to
sales tax laws Unknown impact of accelerated depreciation from
the federal economic stimulus package Potential impact of Missouri Guaranty Fund
covering pre-need policies for National Prearranged Services
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The consensus revenue estimate for Fiscal Year 2009 illustrates the dependence on the individual income tax. To reach 3.4% growth overall, individual income tax must grow 4.5%, while sales tax is estimated to grow only .4%.
Component Conensus Revenue Growth Estimate
Individual Income Tax 4.5%
Sales Tax .4%
Corporate Tax 5.0%
County Foreign Insurance
6.6%
All Other (2.8%)
Net GR Collections 3.4%
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THE “GUN AT THE HEAD” QUESTION
If forced to predict whether actual receipts would exceed the revenue estimate or be below the revenue estimate in the next few fiscal years, what would your prediction be?
Below
However, because Missouri exceeded the revenue estimate in FY 2008, only 2.8% growth is need to make the FY 2009 estimate of 3.4% growth. Potential problems might not appear until FY 2010.
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WHAT SHOULD MISSOURI DO?
Relative to other states, we may actually be in an enviable position
Budget Rule 1—Don’t put one-time funds into ongoing programs.
Keep a very close eye on capital gains and personal income
Consider putting one-time funds into capital improvements or deferred maintenance or other one-time investments
Don’t allow the public to think that excess cash balances are ongoing revenue
Manage the situation31