Systems Thinking:Honing the Skills to

Help Conquer Chaos and Fuel Innovation

Waters Foundationwww.watersfoundation.org

Monday, October 28Scottsdale, Arizona

A Goal for the Day

Big Picture View of this Session

Habits of a Systems Thinker

Understanding theComplexity of Systems

Using Iceberg Model of Systems Thinking

Observes how elements within systems change over time, generating patterns and trends

Changes perspectives to increase

understanding

Identifies the circular nature of complex cause and effect relationships

Seeks to understand the big picture

Recognizes that a system’s structure generates its

behavior

Surfaces and tests assumptions

Considers an issue fully and resists the urge to

come to a quick conclusion

Habits of a Systems Thinker

Considers how mental models affect current reality and

the future

Considers both short and long-term consequences

of actions

Finds where unintended consequences emerge

Recognizes the impact of time delays when

exploring cause and effect relationships

Checks results and changes actions if needed:

“successive approximation”

Uses understanding of system structure to

identify possible leverage actions

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Habits of a Systems Thinker

Habits Card Exercise

Quickly make a pile of a habits cards that describe the aspects of systems thinking that you see as critical to your work.

Choose one habit from your pile and prepare to tell a short story that illustrates how you practice the habit.

Characteristics of a System

➢ System boundaries

➢ Elements or Parts

➢ Interconnections or relationships among the parts

➢ Dynamics

➢ Goal or purpose

Finding Leverage

System BoundariesWhat aspect of your state-level system do you want to

focus on this afternoon?

What part of your system would you like to use focus on?Define the boundaries of

your system.

What assumptions, beliefs, and values do people hold about the system?

Considers how mental models affect current reality and the future

Surfaces and tests assumptions

Mental ModelsMental models are deeply ingrained assumptions, generalizations, or even pictures or images that influence how we understand the world and how we

take action. Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, 1990

Surfacing Mental Models

Information &experiences around me

I notice certain information & experiences.

I add my own meaning. (cultural & personal)

I develop beliefsbased on the

meaning I add.

I do something because of my

beliefs.

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My beliefs affect what I choose to notice in the future.

Ladder of Inference

Adapted from The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook . Last modified 5/05

Using the Ladder of Inference

• Reflection– Become more aware of your own thinking

• Inquiry– Inquire into other’s thinking and reasoning

• Advocacy– Make your thinking and reasoning more visible to

others

Observes how elements within systems change over time,

generating patterns and trends

Behavior-Over-Time Graphs

Time

ChangingVariable

y

x

Behavior-over-time Graphs (BOTGs)

BOTGs show trends and patterns of behavior in a system, rather than discrete events. They measure change over time and show “what” has happened in the system as represented by the graphed component.

Var

iabl

e/s

“wha

t’s”

chan

ging

Time

The day started out cold at around 40˚F and warmed up slowly until the temperature reached about 75˚F before cooling off throughout the afternoon and evening.

Stories to Graphs: A Day in My Town

100˚F

0˚F

6:00 a.m. 10:00 p.m.

Tem

pera

ture

TIME

BOTG Basics

Beginning Middle End

Time

High

Medium

Low

Var

iabl

e/s

Label cause of change

Label cause of change

System Structure: What are the causal relationships

between the elements that are changing?

What has influenced the patterns of behavior?What are the relationships among the parts?

Feedback LoopsCausal Loop Diagrams (CLDs)

Feedback: As different parts of a system affect each other, causes become

effects which in turn become causes.

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Reinforcing Feedback Loop

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Very early reinforcing feedback

Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) show circular causal relationships (feedback) within a system. CLDs can show

“how” and “why” a system operates the way it does.

First Grade Problem Solving

Mean Words

RHurt Feelings

Say “sorry”

Break up the group

Play a game with only one team

QualityProfessionalDevelopment

Best Practice

Retentionof Teachersand Children

Belief and Confidence inthe System

Funding

Access and Engagementin Quality PD

What has influenced the patterns of behavior?What are the relationships among the parts?

Final Insights to Fuel Innovation