systems navigator - added value of simulation in the design of terminals
TRANSCRIPT
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Added value of simulation in the
design of terminals
Vincent de Gast & Alessandro Nati
November 8, 2011 1 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals
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Contents
• Introduction
• Liquid Bulk Terminals
• Complexities in liquid bulk terminal design
• Design process & simulation
• Case studies
• Conclusions
2 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
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Systems Navigator
3 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Our references in simulating liquid bulk terminals
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Liquid bulk terminals
4 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Industrial facility that offers a package of activities
– to handle, store and control liquid bulk (Oil, Chemicals, LNG)
– To and from transportation modes (Ships, trucks, trains and pipelines)
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Liquid bulk terminal functions
5 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
• Primary functions:
– Connect different modalities to maintain logistic flow in supply chain
– To store product temporarily (buffer for differences in supply and demand, scheduling or for strategic reasons)
– Change the product flow size
• Secondary functions:
– Value added logistics (e.g. Blending)
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Types of liquid bulk terminals
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Type Use Tank turnover rate
Fit for purpose
Buffer storage terminal
Production plants High High
Independent storage terminal
Misc. mid long term (strategic storage)
Low Medium
Trading terminal Short term storage
Very high Low
Source: The added value of simulation during liquid bulk terminal design R. van Duijn, H.P.M. Veeke, T.N. Brans, G. Lodewijks
Designed for a specific application or for a broader scope of
products and services
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Design of terminals is complex..
7 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Complex terminal infrastructure:
- Headers
- Pumps
- Jetty lines
- Tanks
- Jetties
- Loading arms
- Pumping platform
Berth selection rules
Board to board
operations Bunkering
Different vessel
mix per customer
Access channel
Rail and Truck loading
Berthing processes:
- Paperwork
- Prepump
- Pump
- Postpump
Uncertain weather conditions
Limited number of tugs
Uncertain vessel arrivals
Blending processes
Changing customer profiles
Vessel
characteristics
Personnel requirements
Multiple parcels
Tank selection
Dedicated infrastructure
Vessel priorities
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Simulation and the terminal lifecycle
8 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Design
Build
Operate Maintain
Improve
Replace
Greenfield terminal: - simulation modeling
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Terminal design questions..
9 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
What are the optimal pump rate
requirements for our new terminal?
What is the effect of having a different vessel mix at the
terminal?
Can the envisioned terminal layout handle expected throughput?
Different users with different questions, which are hard to quantify
Terminal manager Operational excellence Business developers Sales managers Planners
What is the best design for our new terminal?
How many jetties do we need?
What is the expected waiting time for our
customers?
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Simulation and the terminal lifecycle
10 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Design
Build
Operate Maintain
Improve
Replace
Brownfield terminal: - scheduling/planning -
- serious gaming -
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Operating existing terminals…
11 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Can we handle new customer X to the
terminal?
Vessel Y is delayed by 6hrs, can we still accept and what
are the consequences?
When can we schedule maintenance with least
impact?
If we receive this spot vessel, what is the
impact on our terminal?
What is the effect of a new product group to the
terminal?
Terminal manager Operational excellence Business developers Sales managers Planners
Different users with different questions, which are hard to quantify
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Simulation and the terminal lifecycle
12 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Design
Build
Operate Maintain
Improve
Replace
Brownfield terminal: - simulation modeling
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Improving existing terminals…
13 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
What is the impact when adding (an) additional
customer(s) to the terminal?
What is the effect of having a different vessel
mix at the terminal?
What is the impact on my berth occupancy when we
add new jetty-pit connections?
Can the current terminal layout handle future
throughput?
Can the expenses of a new jetty be justified?
Terminal manager Operational excellence Business developers Sales managers Planners
Different users with different questions, which are hard to quantify
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Design process
Design timeline… from idea to reality
14 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Basic design Detailed design
Client input
Site characteristics
Basic Storage/throughput
demands
A
B
C
Alt
ern
ativ
e d
esi
gns
Data availability increases
Decision
Decision
Detailed equipment specification
Dimensioning of tanks
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How to apply simulation…
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Objective (Throughput, Customers) Constraints (Ship types, Port, Products)
Alternatives
Throughput # Customers Ships Port Products
3 different variants 2 different variants 3 different vessel mix 2 different variants 3 different variants
108 possible combinations
Now run the simulation and get the results….
Alternative 1 Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
Alternative 2 Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
Alternative 3 Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
Alternative n Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
The simulation results provide insight in the performance over time
This number changes when more data
becomes available
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Now apply variability…
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Alternative 1 Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
Alternative 2 Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
Alternative 3 Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
Alternative n Berth Occupancy
Waiting time
Weather scenario’s Failures Arrival patterns
Now make a better informed decision
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Added value of simulation
17 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Design
Build
Operate Maintain
Improve
Replace
4 or 5 berths? Enough connection lines?
12.45 pm – Santa Clara – Berth 4 14.30 pm – Liz Krogsund – Berth 1
------------------------------- (How) Can we handle this
new customer?
What if we change our berth/tank allocation?
Should we add more ....?
Lower CAPEX
Better service
Higher efficiency
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Case studies
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3 Cases show examples of design decisions that were made using simulation models
– Terminal layout selection
– Improving throughput of refinery
– Expansion of an existing terminal
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Case 1: Terminal layout selection
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Background information: • Greenfield project > 40,000,000 M3 annual throughput
• Products stored:
– Crude – Middle distillates – Fuel Oil
• Modalities served:
– Ships (Barges, Handy, Handymax, Aframax, Suezmax, VLCC) – Pipelines
• Objective: Evaluate 2 proposed terminal layouts – Required number of berths – Determine individual berth requirements – Determine infrastructure requirements
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Layout 2 •Each finger pier has 3 jetty. •If VLCC is at jetty the whole finger pier is seized •No “South Dock”
Layout options
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Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Layout 1 •Each finger pier has 1 jetty to handle all vessel types •“South Dock” can handle MD (Middle distillate) and FO (Fuel Oil) Aframax, Handymax , Handy)
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Case 1: Results
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
FP W1 FP W2 FP W3 FP E1 FP E2 FP E3
Berth occupancy layout 2 (%)
Blocked
Occupied
Layout 1 performs better because: •VLCC and Suezmax are no longer blocked from Handymax/Handy vessels at finger piers and therefore their waiting time is reduced •Handymax and Handy vessels benefit from “South dock” because they can be served when 2 big vessels are moored at the finger pier at the same time
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TO BE+ 2 MR FO VESSEL
PER MONTH
AS IS:147 KBD CRUDE
TO BE+ 1 MR CLEAN
VESSEL PER MONTH
TO BE:157 KBD CRUDE
TO BE:167 KBD CRUDE
AS IS: 32" LINE FOR CRUDE
TO BEUSE OF NEW LINE FO
TO BEUSE OF NEW CLEAN LINE
TO BE: 32" LINE ALSO FOR FO
Case 2: Refinery throughput increase
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Background information: • Simulation study for the waterfront of a refinery
• Refinery has 1 MBM berth to import crude and
feedstock
• Relation between berth occupancy & demurrage:
• While increasing production rates from 147 KBD to 167 KBD • Optional use of dedicated or new loading line for:
• Fuel oil vessel • Clean vessels
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Case 2: Main scenarios and results
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Scenario NameBerth
Occupancy
Cycle time
(in hrs)
Number of
ships
Demurrage
(in K$)Investment
140 KBD as is 50,45% 39.12 127 253 NO
147 KBD 49,54% 41.54 120 401 NO
157 KBD 54,07% 45.23 135 512 NO
167 KBD 56,81% 47.14 144 429 NO
147 KBD + 2 FO MR 32' MBM line for FO 66,23% 62.23 146 3,669 NO
147 KBD + 2 FO MR Existing dedicated line for FO 66,38% 54.38 146 3,648 $
147 KBD + 2 FO MR New line for FO 59,35% 50.35 146 1,432 $$
147 KBD + 2 FO MR +1 CLEAN MR - New line for FO -
new line for CLEAN 64,73% 59.73 158 2,383 $$$
Conclusions: •Addition of 2 FO MR vessels per month has relevant impact on demurrage cost •Use of existing line for FO makes no difference (no change overs but it has a slow rate) •Use of new dedicated FO line reduces the berth occupancy below 60% (faster pump rate and no changeover) •Handling 1 CLEAN MR vessel per month requires use of dedicated infrastructure and has relevant impact on berth occupancy and demurrage cost.
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Results from further scenarios with different refinery rates, fleet composition, pump rates: •Berth occupancy and demurrage cost have an exponential correlation •For Berth occupancy higher than 65% the demurrage cost dramatically increases •This chart suggests that handling CLEAN MR vessels (berth occupancy to 64%) is risky as the demurrage cost might easily be higher than expected
Case 2: Occupancy vs demurrage
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
50 55 60 65 70 75
BERTH OCCUPANCY (%)
Annual Demurrage Cost in K$ vs Berth Occupancy
Scenarios with berth outages Scenarios with longer lay-can period
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Case 3: Expansion existing terminal
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Background information: •Terminal expects an increase of tonnage handled with vessels •Current bathymetry allows ships to be handled on “Vessel 1, 2, 3”. Barge “1, 2, 3” can only serve barges •Vessels have priority over barges •Investment decisions:
•Dredge and renew “Barge 3” to accommodate vessels (cheaper, risk of further delays on barges) •Build “Vessel 4” but use jetty lines and headers from “Barge 3”
VESSEL 3
VESSEL 2
VESSEL 1
BA
RG
E 1
VESSEL 4
BARGE 3 BARGES ONLY
VESSELS ONLY
VESSELS ONLY
ALL SHIPS
BARGES ONLY
BARGES ONLY
ALL SHIPS
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Case 3: Results
26 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
Conclusions: •As expected addition of a new jetty that can handle both vessels and barges gives higher flexibility to the terminal. •Dredging jetty “Barge 3” increases waiting time for barges (because of the reduction of barge-dedicated jetties)
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Conclusions
27 Added value of simulation in the design of terminals November 8, 2011
• Close integration of simulation during the entire design phase helps to raise questions that otherwise are unnoticed
• Simulation helps to quantify design decisions
• Simulation provides important insight into the behavior of a liquid bulk terminal under varying conditions (peak load, bad weather, failures)
• Scenario comparisons, and quick response to new data are key to successful terminal design
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