systems & foresight some basics. basic words system –“an assemblage of interrelated elements...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Systems & Foresight
Some basics
![Page 2: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Basic words
• System– “an assemblage of interrelated elements
comprising a unified whole with emergent properties”
• Foresight– The art of anticipation, of looking forward
• Hindsight– Perception after the event
![Page 3: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Essential beginnings
for all foresight
![Page 4: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The more and deeper you think ….• What are you trying to anticipate?
– System, its boundaries and their uncertainties• Why are you doing so?
– To be defensive or creative?• When may your anticipations be effective?
– The time horizon?• Where will they be important?
– Locally or globally or glocally?• Who is important?
– Policy makers or ‘street level’ • How will you go about your anticipations?
– The role of formal methods
• ….the more there seems to be no real ‘answer’ to a situation
![Page 5: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Scanning is Cinderella
![Page 6: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Events of very low probabilityBut of very high information content
(Black Swans)
Events of high probabilityBut of low information content
(Grey pigeons)
![Page 7: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Foresight & time
• ‘Real’ foresight
• Institutional foresight
![Page 9: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Situations
Why the world isn’t
always what it seems
![Page 10: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Six themes
• Social• Technical (includes both S &
T)• Economic• Ecology• Political (& politics)• Values/norms
![Page 11: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight](https://reader038.vdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022102800/56649c725503460f9492302a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)