systems and decision structure

8/14/2019 Systems and Decision Structure

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SYSTEMS AND DECISION STRUCTURE

Prof. Marimin, PhDBogor Agricultural University, Bogor,

Indonesia

E-mail: [email protected]


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Note : MIS : Management Information SystemDSS : Decision Support SystemSOP : Standard Operation ProcedureMES : Monitoring and Evaluation System

INFORMATION

DECISIONALTERNATIVESDATA

ACTION DECISION

MISNUMBER/TERMS

SOP

DSS

MES

Information Cycle


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What is a System?

ManufacturingProcess

Input of Raw Materials

Output of Finished Products

Environment

Other Systems

Control by

ManagementControlSignals

ControlSignals

FeedbackSignals

FeedbackSignals

System Boundary


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System Definition

Element (E 1) E 2

E 3

E 5E 4

SubGoal

Goal

System Philosophy

- Goal Oriented (Cybernetic) C S- Holistic Not Partial H

- Effectiveness Not Efficiency E


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System Definition

System is a set of an order inter-related elements (components) forachieving the goal/sub-goals.


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System Classification Matrix

System Input Process Output

Analysis

Synthesis

? Narrow aspect

? Wide aspect

Design ?

Control ?

Marketing system is a system.? Production operation system is a system ? Financial system is a system .. ?


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Basic System Structure

Open System

I ( I )Process (P)

Output (O)

Feed Back System

IP

O

Co ntrol


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Directive

Strateg ic

Tactic

Operational

ES

DBMS

IS

EIS

MIS

Information system application in business

DSS

EDP


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Computer Based Information Systems-CBIS

ES : Expert System

DSS : Decision Support Systems

MIS : Management Information System

DBMS : Data Based Management Systems

EDP : Electronic Data Processing

IS : Information Systems


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DSS Definition

DSS is an interactive flexible and adaptable softwarethat utilizes decision rules, models and model base

coupled with a comprehensive database and the

decision makers own insight, leading to specific,

implement able decision in solving problems that

would not be amenable to management science

optimization model.

DSS Supports complex decision making and

increase their effectiveness (Turban&Aronson, 2003)


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Decision Problem

Decision makers usually face situation which havecharacteristics: unique, uncertain, complex, variable terms(long, medium, short), and multi-level structures.

Hierarchy and characteristic of Decision Problems:

Decision Analysis

Directive

Strategic

Tactic

Operasition


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HappySad

Uncertain

Complex Dynamic

Competition

Limited

Choice

Infor.

Preference

Intuition

Illogical

Decision Result

Intelligence

Perception

Philosophic

Wonder Thinking Feel un-comport Action Blameprzce

ENVIRONMENT

REACTION

Fig. Flow of intuitive decision making


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Uncertain Complex

Dynamic Competition Limited

Choice

Infor.

Preference

Decision Result

Intelligence

Preference

Philosophic

Wonder Thinking Un-comport

Action Prize

Blame

Environment

REACTION

Fig. Flow of rational decision making

Alternatives

Possibilities

Model Structure. Evaluation Time

preference Risk Preference

Logical

Happy

Sad

Normative Decision Analysis

Information

Sensitivity

Inner looking


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Most Decision Problems are Multi criteria(MCDM:Multi criteria decision Making)

Maximize profits Satisfy customer demands

Maximize employee satisfaction Satisfy shareholders Minimize costs of production Satisfy government regulations Minimize taxes Maximize bonuses


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Multiple Criteria Decision Making(MCDM) Structure

Objective to be AchievedProblems to be solved

AlternativesTools/Plan/

DecisionMaker

PerformanceCriteria


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Alternative

Criteria/Factors

Weight of Criteria

Evaluation Model

Computation ModelDecision Makers Types


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A set of option which we either wish to prioritize

and/or from which you wish to choose a best one

with respect to a specified set of criteria.

Examples:

. Choosing best product:

. Choosing best supplier:

. Choosing best industrial location:


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Factors on which we base our decision what we

think is important to consider when making an

informed choice.

Examples:

. Criteria for choosing product:

. Criteria for choosing supplier:

. Criteria for choosing industrial location:


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The value we assign to a given criterion with respect

to a parent criterion. The value can be range to 0.0-1.0

or lies within range of the scale of the parent criteria.

Examples:

. Set of weight of 3 criteria : C1= 0.3; C2=0.5; C3= 0.2

. Set of weight of 3 criteria : C1= 3; C2=5; C3= 2

(3 = moderate; 5= very important = less important;

4 = ? ; 1 = ?)


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Alternative Criteria Value of alternative

# of audiences Effectiveness

Cost Method-1 Method-2

1. Radio

2. Television

3. News paper

Weight

Method-1

Method-2


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Payoff Table

States Of NatureDecision a b

(alternative)1 Payoff 1a Payoff 1b

2 Payoff 2a Payoff 2b

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