2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 1

Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Buildings and Infrastructure

in the City of Thessaloniki, Greece

Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis, Jacopo Selva, Kalliopi Kakderi (AUTH) Bijan Khazai (KIT)

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 2

New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) (UPAT) Seismic hazard – Geotechnical zonation Seismic risk – losses - Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki) - Main road network (interaction with buildings) - Main electric power network (transmission system) - Main water supply system (interaction with electric

power network) Transportation accessibility assessment (METU) Shelter demand assessment (KIT) Port of Thessaloniki (harbor components, interaction

with electric power network) (AUTH)

Application to the city of Thessaloniki

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 3

Seismicity - Tectonics

Geographical distribution of earthquake events with

M ≥4.0

SHARE 2013

Tectonics

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 4

Seismic zones

GRAS388

GRAS392

GRAS390

MKAS212

MKAS389

26°0'0"E

26°0'0"E

25°0'0"E

25°0'0"E

24°0'0"E

24°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

22°0'0"E

22°0'0"E

42°0'0"N 42°0'0"N

41°0'0"N 41°0'0"N

40°0'0"N 40°0'0"N

SHARE 2013

SYNER-G application

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 5

Geotechnical classification according to EC8

Geotechnical classification (EC8)

23°2'0"E

23°2'0"E

23°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°40'0"E

22°40'0"E

40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N

40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N

40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N

40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N

40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N

40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N

40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N

40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N

23°2'0"E

23°2'0"E

23°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°40'0"E

22°40'0"E

40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N

40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N

40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N

40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N

40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N

40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N

40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N

40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N

Liquefaction susceptibility (HAZUS, NIBS 2004)

ABC

0: None3: Moderate5: Very High

None Moderate High

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 6

20 Sub Districts

Sub-City Districts – European Urban Audit (Eurostat)

ID SCD name Population 0 Ladadika-Dikastirion squ. 15868 1 St.George-Rotonda 19260 2 University-Int.Exhib.Center-White Tower 21376 3 PAOK-Malakopi 21376 4 Papafio-St.Constantine-Military Hospital 17385 5 Toumba-St.Fanourios-Ydragogio 18542 6 Vlatadon-St.Dimitrios-Lachanagora 16319 7 Municipal Hospital-Fylakes (Penitentiary) 16709 8 Athinon 18860 9 Analipsi-Dermatologiko 19619 10 Nea Paralia-Municipal Library 20134 11 Railway Station-Xirokrini 16669 12 Pasha Hamam-Tyroloi 15454 13 Charilaou-Exohes 26815 14 Nomarchia-Vafopoulio-Depau 25455 15 School for the blind-Sailing Club 15822 16 Constantinoupoleos-Delfon-Botsari 16761 17 Ippokratio 16712 18 Ecclesiastic School-Kato Toumba 20724 19 Makedonia Palace-Paedagogiki Academia 16729

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 7

Building Stock – Study area • buildings blocks (study area): 2,893

• buildings (study area): 27,738 (92% R/C, 8% masonry)

• inhabitants: 376,589 (municipality), 790,824 (city)

0 1,000 2,000500

Meters

nTotal0 - 5

5 - 15

15 - 30

30 - 80

>80

Number of buildings

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 9

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

x 10-3

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

BDG-deaths

B

DG

-death

s

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.41.5

x 10-5

# runs

BD

G-d

eath

s

mean

mean +/- std

Building stock – Average Losses (Deaths) Results (10,000 runs)

BD

G (d

eath

s %

of t

otal

pop

.)

# runs

moving average

0.48x10-05

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

x 10-3

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

BDG-deaths

B

DG

-death

s

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.41.5

x 10-5

# runs

BD

G-d

eath

s

mean

mean +/- std

λ (B

DG

-dea

ths)

Deaths (% of total pop.)

Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance

x 790.824 = 4 deaths (population)

deaths with Tm= 500 years (λ=0.002) 0.255x10-03 x 790.824 = 201 deaths

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 10

Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)

Collapses

Yield

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 11

Deaths

Injured

Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 12

Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)

Displaced people (good weather)

Displaced people (bad weather)

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 13

Bridges/Overpass: • Single span (non-monolithic): 15 • Multiple spans: 44

Roads (236 km) • Freeway, Major arterial: 172 km • Secondary arterial, Collective roads: 64 km

• Road distance <= 5m from buildings: 20 km

Application to RDN of Thessaloniki

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 14

Network connectivity: Performance Indicators Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL): Connectivity loss between TAZs

Weighted Connectivity loss (WCL): Weighted (over travel speed) connectivity loss between TAZs

Bridge/road

failure

Blocked by

overpass bridges

Blocked by

buildings

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 15

Correlation of broken bridges to network connectivity

Ring road Interchange K17

Interchange with railway

Road to airport

Ring road Interchange K18

Interchange (Monastiriou)

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 16

Effect of interaction with collapsed buildings Road Network Risk Curve

Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL)

Mea

n A

nnua

l Fre

quen

cy

of e

xcee

danc

e (λ

)

Interaction with BDG

no interaction with BDG

20% 33%

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 17

Application to Water Supply System of Thessaloniki

Features:

- 21 pumps

- 11 tanks

- pipes ~280 km

- 437 demand nodes

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 18

Correlation of damaged pipes & broken EPN transmission stations to network connectivity

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 19

interaction

no interaction Mea

n A

nnua

l Fre

quen

cy

of e

xcee

danc

e (λ

)

Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL)

System functionality Tm= 1000 years of WCL

1% 1.8%

Water Supply System Risk Curve Effect of interaction with Electric Power Network

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 20

Multi-criteria Shelter Demand Model

2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 21

Shelter Needs Model

Shelter Needs Index

(SNI)

0.00 - 0.03 low 0.03 - 0.06

0.06 - 0.19

0.19 - 0.33 0.33 - 0.61 high

Uninhabitable Buildings(Bad Weather Conditions)

SCD_WGS84Uninhabitable Buildings Goal

0,000000 - 0,051637

0,051638 - 0,140218

0,140219 - 0,292172

0,292173 - 0,552840

0,552841 - 1,000000