system dynamics in mining - university of queensland

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System Dynamics in MiningComplex Ore Bodies - Project reviewAppCo Team – JKMRCBrunilde VerrierMohsen YahyaeiGordon ForbesWith Carl Smith (BS) and Kathy Witt (CCSG)

5 November 2019

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I) Introduction: Sustainability challenges in MiningII) System dynamics (SD)III) SD and MiningIV) Current research - modellingV) Looking forward: main objectives and project developmentVI) Conclusion: Key messages

Outline

System Dynamics in Mining | 05 Nov 2019 2

Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre


The mining industry must sustain its supply of minerals and metals while facing rising socio-economic complexities and growing pressure to deliver value to society both locally and globally

Looking beyond traditional planning methods to transform challenges into shared opportunities andcontribute to a long-term positive legacy beyond mine closure

Sustainability challenges in Mining




A system thinking approach helping to represent and understand complex systems, simulate and observe behavioural trends over time

From “The Limits to Growth” to topical application in sustainability spaces, mainly policy analysis and design

Models features • Causal relationships (reinforcing or balancing)• Feedback loops and delays• Flows affecting “stocks” (accumulations)

System Dynamics



Iterative process

Problem articulationIdentification of key variablesDefinition of boundariesTime horizon and reference modesCausal loop diagramStock and flows diagramSimulations and tests


Interactions between operations, local governments, the environment and host communities are inherently complex and dynamic

Mining companies increasingly recognize their operations as fully embedded within local socio-economic systems

Business planning should encompass these dynamics over the entire life mine cycle

The association of System Dynamics and Soft System methodologies is appropriate to deal with the multi-faceted societal complexities in mining

SD and Mining



Soft System Methodologies (Checkland)

System Dynamics(Forrester)


First models quantifying interrelated economic, technical and social dynamics of mining Priority concerns: Land use and environmental H&S(Mancini and Sala, 2018)

• Cyanide gold leachingLeaching technologies, potential contamination, community health and perception of hazardand social acceptance

• Mining induced displacement Commodity price, investments, footprint expansion, economic and physical displacements, disruption of livelihoods

Current Research




Modelling environment: STELLA Architect

Causal loop diagrams Stock and flows modelling Sensitivity Analysis Simulation and user’s story interface

Current Research




Cyanide leaching process, the story

Heap leaching process • amount of ore processed/year• cyanide solution and concentration

needed to leach a ton of ore• type and number of regulations and

good practices applied• amount of controlled released into the

environment per year• risk of incident• public perception, sense of trust and

support

Current Research



CRICOS code 00025BCRICOS code 00025BSystem Dynamics in Mining | 05 Nov 2019 9



Current Research



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Case studies Stakeholder and community engagement Concrete outcomes for mining companies to inform decision-making in sustainable planning

Develop innovative courses and trainings

Sustained collaborations • UQ Business School • Participation to APSDC 2020

Objectives – Looking forward




A new multi-disciplinary approach to help solve complex problems and reduce uncertainties

A tool to facilitate stakeholders’s involvement, enriching decision-making through different and better informed perspectives (Bosch et al., 2007)

A humble approach: a model is a continuous improvement process, must include different mental models, and serve a useful purpose

Key messages



Dr Brunilde Verrier | Postdoc Research FellowJKMRC - [email protected]

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system dynamics in mining - university of queensland

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