swine flu - what do people think? - global reaction

ICM Research

swine fluwhat do people think?global reaction

ICM Research

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30The Pandemic Worldwide

5Findings Summary

10Country-by-country reports

9Concern vs. Preparation

31Research Methodology

4Swine Flu - Overview

8State of Preparation

7Global Concern

6Global Outlook

contents swine flu – what do people think?

global reaction

ICM Research

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� Swine Flu is a respiratory disease from influenza type A that

infects pigs. A global pandemic was declared by the

World Health Organisation (WHO) on 11 June 09 after the

virus was confirmed in humans in at least two world regions

� As of 6 July there were just under 100,000 global confirmed

cases, with 421 deaths

� Whilst global headlines continue to be dominated by news

of Swine Flu, there is some anecdotal evidence that

discussion amongst individuals may be falling or tapering

off. In this context, the purpose of this study is two-fold: to

understand the concern of individuals about swine flu in

their country, and to gauge the perceived preparedness

of governments to deal with mass outbreaks in each

country

swine flu - overview

Sources: WHO, CPC, HPA (UK), governments, BBC

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Lack of concern� Across the countries studied, and particularly

in Europe there is a lack of concern about Swine Flu

� In just two countries (China and Bolivia) were more than half of respondents quite or very concerned by the spreading pandemic

� Whilst the illness continues to dominate global headlines, just 28% of respondents in countries studied said they were quite or very concerned

� Females tended to be slightly more concerned (32% vs. 24% for men ) and less sure of their countries preparedness for an outbreak (44% vs. 49% for men)

Varied preparedness� Of those we studied,most European

countries felt themselves well-prepared for a mass outbreak.

� As well as being amongst the most concerned, the people of Argentina & Boliviaalso felt themselves least prepared

Official data� Finally, official data on the incidence of Swine

Flu from the WHO has apparently little impacton people’s perceptions in their countries

findings summaryHow concerned are

individuals about Swine

Flu in their countries?

Do they think their

countries are prepared

for a mass outbreak?key questions

ICM Research

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worried and

unprepared

Argentineans and Bolivians are

amongst the most concerned

countries and also those who

consider themselves least well

prepared for the pandemic.

not worried and unpreparedThe USA, Canada, UK, Russia, Australia, Japan and

Mexico are relatively unconcerned by Swine Flu,

despite feeling themselves to be relatively

unprepared for the pandemic.

prepared and not worriedThose who think themselves most prepared tend to be amongst the

least worried by Swine Flu. These countries

tend to be in Western Europe – Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands,

Germany, Italy – and also Iceland

prepared but still worriedThe populations of France and China, though

thinking themselves prepared to deal with Swine

Flu, remain concerned by the pandemic

global outlook

ICM Research

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The global fear

Just over a quarter (28%) of respondents across the countries studied were concerned personally about the threat of Swine Flu

Age concern

Concern was slightly higher amongst younger people with around a third (32%) of under 35 year olds saying they were concerned, compared to 27% of 35-54 year olds and 23% of those over 55 years old

global concern28%

59%

41%

40%

36%

33%

29%

27%

22%

21%

21%

20%

20%

16%

15%

14%

7%

7%

3%

64%

Total

China

Bolivia

Argentina

France

Brazil

Mexico

Russia

Italy

Iceland

UK

USA

Canada

S. Korea

Japan

Australia

Germany

Netherlands

Switzerland

Austria

Personal concern (quite/very) about Swine Flu in their country

Q1. How concerned are you personally about Swine flu in [YOUR COUNTRY]Base: All respondents (18558)

The Chinese and Bolivians are most personally concerned by Swine Flu. France and Italy excepted, fewer than a quarter of Europeans are concernedk

ey learning

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state of preparation

The Swiss and Austrians consider themselves more

prepared than other nations. As well as being amongst the most concerned, Argentina

& Bolivia also feel themselves least prepared

key le

arning

47%

75%

71%

66%

65%

63%

60%

53%

43%

41%

40%

40%

39%

38%

38%

32%

28%

14%

12%

83%

Total

Switzerland

Austria

China

Italy

France

Netherlands

Iceland

Germany

Mexico

S. Korea

Brazil

Canada

Australia

UK

Japan

USA

Russia

Argentina

Bolivia

Agreement (tend to / strongly) that their country is well-prepared for a mass

outbreak of Swine Flu

Q2. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Your country is well prepared for a mass outbreak of Swine Flu”

Base: All respondents (18558)

Overall, Europeans consider themselves prepared for a mass outbreak of Swine Flu, with only the UK (38%) having fewer than half agreeing the country is prepared for an outbreak

Russia, Argentina and Bolivia felt least prepared – and under a third of Americansthought their country prepared for a mass outbreak

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UK

Argentina

Australia

Austria

Brazil

Canada

China France

Germany

Iceland

Italy

Japan

Korea Mexico

Netherlands

Russia

Switzerland

USA

#REF!

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0% 25% 50% 75%

% Concerned personally about Swine Flu in their country

% Agree the country is prepared for a m

ass

outbreak of sw

ine flu

Bolivia

Prepared, but still worriedPrepared, and not worried

Unprepared, but not worried Worried and unprepared

concern vs. preparationGenerally, greater

confidence in the

country’s preparation

means less personal

concernkey learning

Q1. How concerned are you personally about Swine flu in [YOUR COUNTRY]Base: All respondents (18558)

Q2. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Your country is well prepared for a mass outbreak of Swine Flu”Base: All respondents (18558)

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country-by-country

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united kingdomThe UK Public is not worried, and doesn’t think it’s prepared

Concern and Preparation Incidence of Swine Flu (WHO)

Concern

UK

0

50

100

150

200

250

30% 47% 16% 6%

Not Little Quite Very Concerned

7% 21% 28% 34% 5%

Strongly Disagree Tend to Neither Tend to Strongly Agree

Preparation

(cases per million)

Commentary�WHO data indicates that incidence of swine flu in the UK is quite

high

� Just 6% of Britons are personally very concerned about Swine Flu

�Most are fairly neutral about the UK’s state of preparation for a Swine

Flu outbreak, with few showing strong confidence or concern

� British females are more worried about Swine Flu and less confident

with the state of current preparations than males

�Concern with Swine Flu and confidence in current preparations are

remarkably similar by region and age.

� However ABs show least personal concern and greatest confidence

with current preparations

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argentinaThe Argentine public is quite worried and doesn’t think it’s prepared


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Argentineans show quite high personal concern about

Swine Flu, with nearly a fifth (18%) being very concerned

�Almost half (47%) of Argentines strongly disagree that

their country is prepared for a mass outbreak of Swine Flu

�Argentines aged 35-54 years show greatest concern and

also least confidence that their country is prepared

�Argentine females show much more concern about

Swine Flu, but are no more distrusting of the preparation

of their country in case of a mass outbreak

Concern

27% 33% 22% 18%


47% 21% 17% 10% 4%


Preparation

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australiaThe Australian public is not worried and not very prepared


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Official data suggests incidence of Swine Flu in Australia

is very high – second only to Canada

�However, this has not translated into much concern, with

just 3% of Australians claiming to be “very concerned”

(1% among Australians aged 55+!)

�Australians are fairly divided in their opinion of preparation for a mass outbreak, with slightly more

showing confidence in preparations

� In contrast to many other countries, Australian men and

women show remarkable agreement in their perception

of personal risk and of Australia’s preparation to deal with a mass outbreak.

Concern

33% 52% 12% 3%


6% 24% 31% 32% 7%


Preparation

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austriaThe Austrian public is not at all concerned and very well prepared


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�With WHO data indicating an extremely low incidence of Swine Flu in Austria and Austrians showing strong confidence in their country’s state of preparation, Austrians show minimal concern with Swine Flu

�The lack of concern and great confidence in the country’s preparations is shared by all Austrians: males, females and people of all ages

�Both the strength and uniformity of opinion on Swine Flu among Austrians is striking.

Concern

80% 17% 2%1%


2%6% 10% 34% 41%


Preparation

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boliviaBolivians are very concerned about Swine Flu and consider their country ill-prepared


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Despite the low official incidence of Swine Flu in Bolivia,

Bolivians show much more concern for Swine Flu than

any other Latin American country, with one third being

very concerned

�Bolivians feel strongly that their country is not well-

prepared against a Swine Flu outbreak. Just 4% strongly

agree that their country is well-prepared

�The bleak evaluation is felt widely in Bolivia, with few

strong differences emerging between males and females or population groups of different ages

Concern

14% 24% 27% 32%


50% 28% 9% 7% 4%


Preparation

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brazilBrazilians aren’t very worried and don’t consider their country particularly well-prepared


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Overall, Brazilians show neither strong concern nor great

confidence in their country to deal with Swine Flu

�However, the average conceals vast differences: there is

remarkable lack of agreement with either concern or the

state of preparation

�There are few differences in opinions among different

age groups

�However, Brazilian women show much more concern

with Swine Flu and slightly less confidence in the current

state of preparation for a mass outbreak

Concern

26% 38% 26% 9%


25% 23% 9% 20% 20%


Preparation

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canadaCanadians show quite low concern and generally think their country is not well-prepared

Concern and Preparation Incidence of Swine Flu

(WHO)

0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Despite the highest incidence in the world, almost 80% of

Canadians indicate no or little concern with Swine Flu –

just 7% are very concerned

� Few Canadians show strong opinions on the state of

preparation for a mass outbreak, with 31% neither

agreeing / disagreeing

� Older Canadians (aged 55+) show more concern than other Canadians with Swine Flu, but are actually the

most likely to agree that their country is prepared

� Similar to many other countries, Canadian women are

more concerned with Swine Flu, and less confident in

the state of their preparations

Concern

28% 52% 14% 7%


5% 19% 31% 34% 6%


Preparation

ICM Research

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chinaChinese are unique as being both very concerned and very prepared for a mass outbreak of Swine Flu


(WHO)

0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary� Despite one of the very lowest incidences of Swine Flu in

the world,

Chinese people show great concern with Swine Flu. Just

2% of Chinese indicate no concern (contrast to 80% of

Austrians!)

� However, Chinese people indicate confidence in their

country’s preparations. 21% of Chinese strongly agree

China is well-prepared

�Chinese aged 35-54 years are slightly more concerned

than younger Chinese

� In contrast to other countries, Chinese men show more

concern with Swine Flu than women

Concern

2% 34% 33% 30%


2%6% 19% 51% 21%


Preparation

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franceThe French public considers itself quite prepared but is still fairly worried about Swine Flu


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary� Despite low incidence indicated by WHO, France is most concerned

country in Europe surveyed. 12% of French public is “very

concerned” with Swine Flu – a minority, but high vs. to most other

countries surveyed

� However, the French do generally agree that their country is well-

prepared against a mass outbreak. Just 9% disagree strongly

� Some ennui is revealed among the younger French who are least

likely to be personally concerned or confident in their country’s

preparations

� French women indicate much more concern than men with Swine

Flu (45% vs. 35%), but show the same opinion as men in the

preparation of their country for a mass outbreak

Concern

29% 30% 28% 12%


9% 10% 12% 43% 22%


Preparation

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germanyGermans are not concerned and consider themselves quite well-prepared for a mass outbreak


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�With a very low level of incidence of Swine Flu (WHO

data) 85% of Germans indicate no or little concern

�However, Germans are quite confident with the state of

preparation, with just 4% strongly disagreeing that Germany is well-prepared

�Although there are few differences between Germans of

different ages, in-line with most other countries, German

women show more concern and less confidence in the

preparations for Swine Flu than German men

Concern

36% 49% 10% 4%


4% 14% 25% 35% 18%


Preparation

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icelandIcelanders consider themselves quite well prepared and are not very concerned about Swine Flu


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Comments� In-line with the low incidence of Swine Flu, few (3%) Icelanders are

not very concerned about Swine Flu, with almost four in five (78%

)claiming to be not or a little concerned

� Icelanders consider themselves quite well prepared, with 20%

strongly agreeing that their country would be well-prepared for a

mass outbreak

�Older Icelanders show markedly more concern about Swine Flu, but

also greater confidence in their preparation for a mass outbreak

than younger Icelanders

� Consistent with most other countries, Icelandic women show much

greater concern and much less confidence in their country’s

preparation for a mass outbreak.

Concern

32% 46% 18% 3%


2% 9% 20% 42% 18%


Preparation

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italyItalians are not worried and consider their country quite well-prepared for a Swine Flu outbreak


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�With one of the lowest official incidences of Swine Flu in

the world, almost three-quarters of Italians declare to be

not or only a little concerned about Swine Flu

�There’s overall agreement amongst Italians that Italy is quite well-prepared against a mass outbreak of Swine

Flu. However, one-in-five (21%) do disagree, suggesting

some discord

�Whilst these views are shared by Italians of all ages,

Italian women are more concerned about Swine Flu than men (although their confidence in the country’s

preparation is similar to men’s).

Concern

43% 29% 19% 8%


8% 13% 10% 52% 14%


Preparation

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japanThe Japanese public has little concern for Swine Flu, but is reluctant to consider itself well-prepared


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary� 64% of Japanese claim to be “a little” concerned with Swine Flu – a

much bigger proportion than any other country. Just 5% are very

concerned

� Japanese are unwilling to be drawn on a clear evaluation of their

preparation, with just 4% strongly agreeing and 6% strongly

disagreeing that their country is well-prepared for a mass outbreak

�Older Japanese are more concerned about Swine Flu than younger

people, and Japanese women are more concerned than men

� However, there’s remarkable consistency across demographic

groups in perception of preparation for a mass outbreak.

Concern

18% 64% 12% 5%


6% 17% 34% 35% 4%


Preparation

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south koreaSouth Koreans have little concern and limited confidence in preparation for Swine Flu


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�With a very low official incidence of Swine Flu, South

Koreans declare generally little concern for themselves,

with 78% stating none or a little concern

�South Koreans generally do not commit to strong opinions of their country’s level of preparation. Overall

however, there are almost equal numbers who consider

their country prepared or not prepared

�Older Koreans are more concerned than younger Koreans. Also, Koreans aged 55+ show very much

greater confidence (56%) in their country’s preparation

than younger Koreans (35% among 35-54s, and 37%

among <34 years.

Concern

22% 55% 11% 10%


8% 29% 15% 36% 5%


Preparation

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mexicoOnly a small minority of Mexicans are very concerned, but strong discord on the level of preparation


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Despite being the birthplace and retaining a high official

incidence of Swine Flu, two in five (43%) of Mexicans

claim to be not at all concerned

�Mexicans show discord over the current level of

preparation for a mass outbreak: over 20% strongly

disagree and 13% strongly agree

�While the oldest (55+) Mexicans show least concern,

Mexican men are much more concerned (40%) than women (26%) with Swine Flu

�Agreement with the level of preparation in Mexico is

similar for people of all ages and for both men and

women.

Concern

43% 23% 23% 10%


22% 18% 13% 31% 13%


Preparation

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netherlandsThe Dutch public are almost entirely unconcerned, and consider themselves well-prepared


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�With a very low official incidence of Swine Flu, the Dutch

public shows little concern – only Switzerland and Austria

have more citizens claiming no concern

�Widespread agreement in the Netherlands that the country is well-prepared for a mass outbreak of Swine Flu

– just 3% strongly disagree

�Feelings of concern are similar across age groups and

amongst men and women. However, Dutch people

aged 55+ are less likely to agree that their country iswell-prepared for a mass outbreak.

Concern

60% 33% 5%2%


3% 16% 14% 54% 9%


Preparation

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russiaThe Russians consider themselves not prepared, but show limited concern for Swine Flu


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Despite the lowest official incidence of Swine Flu in the

countries researched, Russians show some concern: 29%

are either very or quite concerned, vs. 25% being not at

all concerned (contrast to 80% in Austria)

�Russians hold a wide range of views on the preparation

for a mass outbreak, although the balance is negative

rather than positive

�Russian women are much more concerned about Swine

Flu than men, and are less likely to be confident in their country’s preparation for a mass outbreak.

Concern

25% 47% 23% 6%


11% 36% 25% 22% 6%


Preparation

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switzerlandThe Swiss consider their country to be best-prepared of all, and show minimal concern for Swine Flu


0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�92% of Swiss have no or little concern for Swine Flu – supported by a very low official incidence and strong confidence among Swiss that their country is well-prepared against a mass outbreak

�Just 6% of all Swiss disagree that their country is well-prepared against Swine Flu

�These opinions are felt widely throughout Swiss society, as no observable differences emerge between different population groups.

Concern

62% 30% 5%2%


2%4% 8% 47% 37%


Preparation

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united statesAmerican opinion is divided on the level of preparation, however, few Americans are very concerned


(WHO)

0

50

100

150

200

250

(cases per million)

Commentary�Despite a relatively high official incidence of Swine Flu, 79% of Americans declare to be either not at all or a

little concerned with Swine Flu

� Americans hold a wide range of views on the current

state of preparation. However, opinions are generally weak, with a very small minority strongly agreeing or

strongly disagreeing that their country is well-prepared

�American men are more likely to concur that their

country is well prepared against an outbreak of Swine

Flu, although incidence of concern is similar between men and women.

Concern

25% 54% 14% 7%


7% 33% 28% 27% 5%


Preparation

ICM Research

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the pandemic worldwidedata to 6 July 09

UKCases: 7447

Deaths: 7

FranceCases: 310Deaths: 0

ItalyCases: 146Deaths: 0

AustriaCases: 19

Deaths: 0

GermanyCases: 505Deaths: 0

Netherlands

Cases: 135Deaths: 0

Iceland

Cases: 4Deaths: 0

ArgentinaCases: 2485Deaths: 60

BoliviaCases: 416Deaths: 0

MexicoCases:

10262Deaths: 119

USACases:

33902

Deaths: 170

CanadaCases: 7983Deaths: 25

RussiaCases: 3

Deaths: 0

Australia

Cases: 5298Deaths: 10

ChinaCases: 2040

Deaths: 0

JapanCases: 1790Deaths: 0S. Korea

Cases: 202Deaths: 0

Sources: WHO, CPC, HPA (UK), governments, BBC

WORLDWIDE

Cases: 94431Deaths: 421

ICM Research

31

� The WIN Network Swine Flu study

interviewed 18,558 respondents

across 19 countries to evaluate

respondents’ perceptions of the

Swine Flu pandemic in their country

� Data was collected by online,

telephone and face-to-face

methodologies from the end of

June to the start of July 2009

� Each sample is representative of its

country’s population in terms of

socio-demographic variables.

720Bolivia

1005USA

2038UK

508Switzerland

1000Russia

488Netherlands

504Mexico

814South Korea

1028Japan

1002Italy

764Iceland

1008Germany

1007France

1510China

1524Canada

2001Brazil

501Austria

638Australia

498Argentina

# RespondentsCountry

research methodology

ICM Research

swine fluwhat do people think?global reaction

swine flu - what do people think? - global reaction

News & Politics

low official incidence

strongly disagree tend

swine flu outbreak

younger koreans

strongly agree

market research

low incidence

global reaction