Suttmeier Weekly Market Briefing – February 23, 2015

The Major Equity Averages

U.S. Treasuries, Comex Gold, Nymex Crude Oil, Currencies

Value Levels – Levels that are likely to hold on weakness. Pivots – Levels that could be tested as magnets. Risky Levels – Levels that are likely to restrain strength (W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A-Annual) Five-Week – The five-week modified moving average. Int Sent – 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 to 10.0. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought. Rising is positive. Declining is negative) Weekly Charts – Above the Five-Week with rising Stoch is positive. Below the Five-Week with declining Stoch is negative.

Suttmeier Weekly Market Briefing – February 23, 2015 New Multiyear and All-Time Intraday Highs Were Set Last Week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set an all-time intraday high of 18144.29 on Friday. The S&P 500 set an all-time high of 2110.61 on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite set a multiyear high of 4957.02 on Friday. The Russell 2000 set an all-time high of 1231.92 on Friday. The Dow Transports remains below its all-time high of 9310.33 set on November 28, 2014. U.S. Treasury yields were higher, gold slumped, crude oil traded lower and the dollar was stable. All five major equity averages are above their five-week modified moving averages at 17779 Dow Industrials, 20t61.3 S&P 500, 4781 Nasdaq, 8958 Dow Transports and 1199.36 Russell 2000. If the closes on Friday, February 27 are above these moving averages, all major averages will continue to have positive weekly charts.

The year-to-date lows for the five major equity averages; 17037.76 Dow Industrials on Feb. 2, 1980.90 S&P 500 on Feb. 2, 4563.11 Nasdaq on Jan.16, 8583.54 Dow Transports on Feb. 2, and 1151.30 Russell 2000 on Jan.16.

Dow Industrials: (18140) Annual value levels are 15112 and 14557 with weekly and pivots at 17512 and 17706, the Feb. 20 all-time intraday high of 18144.29, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 18328, 18744 and 19600.

S&P 500 – (2110.3) Annual value levels are 1585.9 and 1558.2 with weekly, semiannual and monthly pivots at 2031.7, 2053.3 and 2076.7, the Feb. 20 all-time intraday high at 2110.61 and quarterly risky level at 2268.9.

NASDAQ – (4956) Annual value levels are 3901and 3596 with semiannual, weekly and monthly pivots at 4635, 4715, 4751 and 4931, the Feb. 13 multiyear intraday high at 4957.02, and quarterly risky level at and 5245. The March 2000 “tech bubble” peak is at 5132.

Dow Transports – (9131) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 8707, 8452, 7289 and 6635 with a semiannual pivot at 8911, a monthly risky level at 9139, the Nov. 28 all-time intraday high at 9319.33 and quarterly risky level at 10009.

Russell 2000 – (1231.79) Annual value levels are 975.84 and 954.08 with weekly, monthly and semiannual pivots at 1186.50, 1192.45 and 1207.39, the Feb. 20 all-time intraday high at 1231.92 and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1287.98 and 1382.55.

The SOX – (711.25) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 673.94, 619.34, 600.94 and 432.78 with a monthly pivot at 699.73, the Feb. 20 multiyear intraday high at 711.51 and quarterly risky level at 763.90.

Dow Utilities: - (600.06) Annual value levels are 525.86 and 510.04 with weekly, semiannual, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 604.14, 621.93, 627.50 and 637.27 and the Jan. 28 all-time intraday high at 657.17.

10-Year Note – (2.120%) My quarterly value level is 3.147% with semiannual and monthly pivots at 1.921% and 1.964%, and weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.666%, 1.589%, 1.342% and 0.715%.

30-Year Bond – (2.724%) Semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.949%, 3.013% and 3.690% with a monthly pivot at 2.493%, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 2.281%, 2.169% and 2.117%.

Comex Gold – ($1201.0) A quarterly value level is $893.0 with a monthly pivot at $1238.7, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $1278.4, $1348.9, $1580.7 and $1816.9.

Nymex Crude Oil – ($50.74) A weekly value level is $44.76 with the Jan. 2009 low is at $33.20 and the Feb. 3 high at $54.24, a monthly pivot at $49.89 (tested again last week) and a semiannual risky level at $81.58.

The Euro – (1.1375) – A weekly value level is 1.0794 with the Jan. 26 low at 1.1098, a monthly pivot at 1.1366, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels are at 1.2828, 1.2899 and 1.3551.

The Dollar vs Japanese Yen – (119.08) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 116.88 and 112.09 with monthly and quarterly risky levels at 121.22 and 124.52.

The British Pound – (1.5390) Weekly an annual value levels are 1.4916 and 1.2801 with a monthly pivot at 1.5266 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.5821 and 1.6289.

Suttmeier Weekly Market Briefing – February 23, 2015

This Week’s ETF Briefing By Richard Suttmeier

The Diamonds Trust (DIA), the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) have positive weekly charts with weekly closes above their five-week modified moving averages. Momentum based upon 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings are rising. The Consumer Discretionary sector is the first to become positive but overbought. Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financial, Healthcare, Technology and Transportation have positive weekly chart profiles. The Utilities sector has a negative weekly chart. This sector was a big winner in 2014 but is now the biggest loser year to date down 3.2%. The biggest sector winner is Healthcare with a year-to-date gain of 4.8%. The biggest sector winners month-to-date are Materials and Technology with gains of 8.9% and 8.0%, respectively. The Commodity Fund (GSG) has a gain of 5.2% so far in February but is down 4.0% year to date. A close this week above its five-week modified moving average at $21.16 shifts its weekly chart to positive as weekly Stochastics will likely be rising above the oversold threshold of 2.0. This ETF is 70% weighed to energy and crude oil and has a negative but oversold weekly chart. The 20+ year U.S. Treasury fund (TLT) is down 8.5% so far in February but still holds onto a year-to-date gain of 0.5%. The Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has lost 6.6% month to date but is up 1.5% year to date.

Suttmeier Weekly Market Briefing – February 23, 2015