SUTTMEIER on the US CAPITAL MARKETS GMCReports@aol.com

This Week’s Markets Briefing By Richard Suttmeier – February 2, 2015 The Major Equity Averages

The Dow S&P 500 Nasdaq Trans Russell The SOX Utilities

1/30/2015 17,165 1,995.0 4635 8649 1165.39 653.14 637.20 1/23/2015 17,673 2,051.8 4758 8982 1188.93 680.54 647.78

Weekly Chg -508 -56.8 -123 -333 -23.54 -27.4 -10.58 12/312014 17,823 2,058.9 4736 9140 1204.71 686.87 618.05

YTD Change -658 -63.9 -101 -491 -39.32 -33.73 19.15 Value 15112 A 1585.9 A 4624 W 8452 S 954.08 A 647.40 W 621.93 S Levels 14557 A 1558.2 A 3901 A 7289 A 975.84 A 619.34 S 525.86 A

3586 A 600.94 S 510.04 A 432.78 A

Pivots 17203 W 1997.1 W 4635 S 8632W 627.50 Q 4715 S 8655 S 637.27 M

Risky 17706 M 2053.3 S 4931 M 9139 M 1183.01 W 699.73 M 659.89 W Levels 18328 S 2076.7 M 5245 Q 10009 Q 1192.45 M 724.22 W

18744 S 2268.9 Q 1207.39 S 763.90 Q 1287.98 S

Five-Week 17,561 2,033.7 4691 8879 1178.35 670.75 625.33 Stochastics 7.9 / 6.6 7.7 / 6.6 7.9 / 6.6 6.8 / 5.6 7.9 / 7.0 8.1 / 7.1 8.5 / 8.5

U.S. Treasuries, Comex Gold, Nymex Crude Oil, Currencies

10-Year 30-year Gold Crude Oil Euro/$$ $$ Yen GBP/$$ 1/30/2015 1.666 2.245 1284.1 47.54 1.1290 117.43 1.5061 1/23/2015 1.805 2.382 1294.4 45.38 1.1207 117.77 1.4989

Weekly Chg -0.139 -0.137 -10.3 2.16 0.0083 -0.34 0.0072 12/31/2014 2.170 2.750 1183.0 53.78 1.2101 119.77 1.5583

YTD Change -0.504 -0.505 101.1 -6.24 -0.0811 -2.34 -0.0522 Value 1.921 S 2.493 M 1238.7 M 36.63 W none 115.92 W 1.2801 A Levels 1.964 M 2.949 S 892.99 Q 112.09 S

3.147 Q 3.013 A 96.22 S 3.690 Q

Pivots 1288.0 W 1.1280 W 1.5016 W 1.1366 M

Risky 1.592 W 2.177 S 1348.9 S 66.59 M 1.2828 S 121.22 M 1.5266 M Levels 1.589 A 2.169 A 1580.7S 81.58 S 1.2899 Q 124.52 Q 1.5821Q

1.342 S 2.117 W 1814.7 A 86.14 Q 1.6289 S 95.93 A

Five-Week 1.968 2.576 1242.2 54.06 1.1794 117.87 1.5313 Stochastics 3.3 / 2.5 1.5 / 1.2 6.7 / 7.5 0.6 / 0.6 0.7 / 0.7 8.0 / 7.3 0.8 / 0.8

Value Levels – Levels that are likely to hold on weakness. Pivots – Levels that could be tested as magnets. Risky Levels – Levels that are likely to restrain strength (W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A-Annual) Five-Week – The five-week modified moving average. Int Sent – 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 to 10.0. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought. Rising is positive. Declining is negative) Weekly Charts – Above the Five-Week with rising Stoch is positive. Below the Five-Week with declining Stoch is negative. All five major equity averages have negative weekly charts with closes their five-week modified moving averages at 17561 Dow Industrials, 2033.7 S&P 500, 4691 Nasdaq, 8879 Dow Transports and 1178.35 Russell 2000. All 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings are declining below the overbought threshold of 8.0. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has a negative weekly chart. Dow Utilities has a positive but overbought chart.

SUTTMEIER on the US CAPITAL MARKETS GMCReports@aol.com The year-to-date lows for the five major equity averages are; 17136.30 Dow Industrials on Jan. 29, 1988.12 S&P 500 on Jan. 16, 4563.11 Nasdaq on Jan.16, 8584.99 Dow Transports on Jan. 14, and 1151.30 Russell 2000 on Jan.16, which was a test of its 200-day simple moving average at 1151.62. Gaps below theses levels could lead to significant downside for stocks.

Dow Industrials: (17165) Annual value levels are 15112 and 14557 with a weekly pivot at 17203, a new monthly risky level at 17706, the Dec. 26 all-time intraday high at 18103.45, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 18328, 18744 and 19600.

S&P 500 – (1995.0) Annual value levels are 1585.9 and 1558.2 with a weekly pivot at 1997.1, a semiannual risky level at 2053.3, a new monthly risky level at 2076.7, the Dec. 29 all-time intraday high at 2093.55 and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 2102.2 and 2268.9.

NASDAQ – (4635) Annual value levels are 3901and 3596 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 4624, 4635 and 4715, the Dec.26 multiyear intraday high at 4814.95, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4931 and 5245.

Dow Transports – (8649) Semiannual and annual value levels are 8452, 7289 and 6635 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 8632 and 8655, a new monthly risky level at 9139, the Nov. 28 all-time intraday high at 9319.33 and quarterly risky level at 10009.

Russell 2000 – (1165.39) Annual value levels are 975.84 and 954.08 with weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1183.01, 1192.45 and 1207.39, the Dec.29 all-time intraday high at 1220.81 and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1287.98 and 1382.55.

The SOX – (653.14) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 647.40, 619.34, 600.94 and 432.78 with a new monthly risky level at 699.73, the Dec. 8 multiyear intraday high at 704.44 and quarterly risky level at 763.90.

Dow Utilities: - (637.20) Semiannual and annual value levels are 621.93, 525.86 and 510.04 with quarterly and monthly pivots at 627.50 and 637.27, Jan. 28 all-time intraday high at 657.17 and a weekly risky level at 659.89.

10-Year Note – (1.666%) Semiannual, monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.921%, 1.964% and 3.147% with weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.592%, 1.589%, 1.342% and 0.715%. This yield traded as low as 1.637% on Jan. 30 still above the May 1, 2013 low of 1.614%.

30-Year Bond – (2.245%) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.493, 2.949%, 3.013% and 3.690% with semiannual, annual and weekly risky levels at 2.177%, 2.169% and 2.117%. This yield set a new all-time intraday low at 2.221% on Jan.30.

Comex Gold – ($1284.1) Monthly and quarterly value levels are $1238.7 and $893.0 with a weekly pivot at $1288.0, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $1348.9, $1580.7 and $1816.9. Held its 200-day simple moving average at $1254.7 at last week’s low.

Nymex Crude Oil – ($47.54) A weekly value level is $36.63 with the Jan. 2009 low is at $33.20, and monthly, semiannual risky levels at $49.89, $66.59 and $81.58. Oil set a new low for the move at $43.58 last Thursday.

The Euro – (1.1290) – The Jan. 26 low is 1.1098 with weekly and monthly pivots at 1.1280 and 1.1366, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels are at 1.2828, 1.2899 and 1.3551.

The Dollar vs Japanese Yen – (117.43) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 115.92 and 112.09 with monthly and quarterly risky levels at 121.22 and 124.52.

The British Pound – (1.5061) An annual value level is 1.2801 with a weekly pivot at 1.5016, and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.5266, 1.5821 and 1.6289.

SUTTMEIER on the US CAPITAL MARKETS GMCReports@aol.com

Trading Levels for 16 Key Exchange-Traded Funds

The Diamonds Trust (DIA), the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ended last week with negative weekly charts with closes below their five-week modified moving averages with declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings. Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financial, Technology and Transportation sectors have negative weekly charts. The Healthcare sector will shift to negative with a close this week below $69.47. The Utilities sector is positive but overbought with its five-week modified moving average at $47.67. . The Commodity Fund (GSG) had an 8.7% loss in January and remains the weakest ETF, 70% weighed to energy and crude oil. The best year-to-date performers are the 20+ year U.S. Treasury fund (TLT) with a gain of 9.87% and the Gold Trust ETF (GLD) with a gain of 8.7%.

SUTTMEIER on the US CAPITAL MARKETS GMCReports@aol.com

The January Scorecard for the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Earnings Statistics – 23 Dow components have reported quarterly results. Ten went into their earnings release with lowered analysts earnings-per-share estimates. 17 beat estimates, three matched and 3 missed. Performance Measures – Only four Dow components had gains in January led by Boeing (BA) with a solid gain of 11.8%. In second place is Merck (MRK) with a gain of 6.1%. In third place is UnitedHealth (UNH) with a gain of 5.1%. Pfizer (PFE) had a fractional gain of 0.3%. Double-digit losses were posted by American Express (AXP) down 13.3%, Caterpillar (CAT) down 12.6%, Goldman Sachs (GS) down 11.1%, JP Morgan (JPM) down 13.1% and Microsoft (MSFT) down 13%. Technical Measures – Only six components are above their 50-day simple moving averages. 14 components are below their 200-day simple moving average with the Dow 30 (17165) above its 200-day at 17062. 23 components have negative weekly charts with Caterpillar oversold.