sustainable transportation: progress, challenges, and ...and sustainable communities* state’s...
TRANSCRIPT
Sustainable Transportation:
Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities
Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer
December 11, 20181
Sustainable Transportation Defined
2
• Clean transportation technology
• Reduction in vehicle travel (VMT),
via expansion of mobility options
• Improved health, mobility, economic
opportunity, and quality of life
• Environmental stewardship
to achieve
Outline for Today’s Talk
• Where do we need & want to go to achieve Sustainable Transportation?
• What tools (policies, programs, and regulations) are we using to get there?
• What challenges are we encountering now, and what are we doing to
address them?
• What emerging challenges do we see on the horizon, and what does
CARB have planned to address them?
3
Where do we need and want to go to
achieve Sustainable Transportation?
California’s Climate & Air Quality Goals
NOX Emissions, South Coast Air Basin
(All Sources)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Statewide
(All Sources)
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
To
ns
pe
r d
ay
Current Programs
2023 South
Coast
Target
2031
Target
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MM
TC
O2e
pe
r ye
ar Reference Scenario
SB 32 40%
Reduction
Executive Order
Carbon Neutrality
1990 Level
Source: CARB, 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan;
2018 Exec. Order B-55-18
Source: CARB, 2016 Mobile Source Strategy
2030 Transportation Sector Targets
6
Clean transportation technology
• 5 million ZEVs & PHEVs
• 100% of new buses = ZEVs
• Transition freight to zero-emission
everywhere feasible
Reduce per capita VMT
25% from 2005 levels (by 2035)
- 1.6 miles/person/day
Zero Emissions Vehicle & Plug-In Hybrid
Electric Vehicle Cumulative Sales & Targets
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030V
eh
icle
Sa
les
US California
CA 2025
target
CA 2030
target
Reduce Vehicle
Emissions Rate
Reduce Vehicle
Miles Traveled
Change Travel
Mode Mix
Emissions Inventory
+
Addressing Emissions Targets Requires
Aggressive Strategies in Many Areas
7
+
Transportation Sector: Key Strategies
8
High density transit-
oriented housing
Walkable and bikeable
communities
Clean and efficient
freight system
Cleaner fuels and
vehicles
Achieving Sustainable Transportation
9
Efficient
Land Use
More
Affordable
Housing
Investments in
Low Income &
DACs
Improved
Access to Key
Destinations
Safe & Convenient
Active
Transportation,
Transit
Reduce Vehicle
Emissions Rate
Reduce Vehicle
Miles Traveled
Change Travel
Mode Mix
Sustainable Transportation
+ +
Efforts to Date
10
Reducing Pollution in
Burdened Communities Increasing Access to
Clean Mobility Options
Funding & Better
Planning for Active
Transportation & Transit
What tools* are we using to achieve
Sustainable Transportation?
*policies, programs, and regulations
Cleaner Cars for
Cleaner Air & Advanced
Clean Cars
CARB Programs Working toward
Sustainable Transportation
12
Sustainable
Communities & Climate
Protection Program (SB
375)
Climate Change
Investments (Greenhouse Gas Reduction
Fund)
Community Air
Protection Program(AB 617)
Heavy-Duty
Vehicle Regulations
Low Carbon
Fuel Standard
Long-Awaited Transportation
Renaissance is Happening
13
Anticipated Cost Declines
for EV Technology
14
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Batte
ry C
ost
-$/k
Wh
Year for Projection
BNEF
BNEF
UBS
UBS
2016 TBC Report
2017 TBC Report
2018 TBC Report
2018 TBC Report
Projections continue to move
downward over time
What challenges are we encountering now
and what are we doing to address them?
Californians Continue to Drive Alone
as Primary Commute Option
16
Source: American Community
Survey
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%Commuters Driving Alone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Annual Per-Capita Transit Boardings
SCAG SANDAG SACOG MTC
2018 Progress Report: “California is not on track to meet
the GHG reductions expected under SB 375…”
17
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Change s
ince 2
005
Per capita SB 375 CO2 Per capita VMT SCS anticipated performance
Why is this happening, and what can we do?
• Why?
• Current laws & incentives
• Politics
• Competing mandates
• Etc.
• What to do?
• Systemic changes are
necessary
18
Course Correction on SB 375 Implementation
2018 Progress Report Key Recommendation:
• Form interagency body for a plan of action
Plus “Opportunity Areas”:
• Improve targeting of transportation, housing, and climate incentives
• Prioritize affordable housing near jobs
• Pilot test innovation
• Fiscally-sustainable, equitable transportation funding and policy
• Open data for planning and monitoring
19
Feds Propose to Revise Vehicle Standards
20
Combined Passenger Car/Truck Compliance Targets in California
CARB’s Response: Revoke “Deemed to Comply”
Board action
ensures federal
rollback on fuel
efficiency and
emission standards
won’t impact
California vehicles
21
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2E
mis
sio
ns
(MM
TC
O2/y
ea
r)
Light-Duty Vehicle On-Road Fleet CO2 Emissions
Current California GHG standards Federal NPRM Proposal
12 MMT of Reductions Lost
Under Federal Proposal
What emerging challenges are on the horizon?
What does CARB have planned to address them?
Emerging Challenges & Opportunities
• Net effect of automated vehicles and shared mobility services
• Achieving sustainable freight
• Lack of affordable housing and implications for VMT
• Carbon neutrality by 2045
• Federal and state interactions
23
Unknowns about the Automated Vehicle Future
24
• Large uncertainties
even when
considering just
one possible
outcome variable:
energy
consumption
• What might the
implications be for
GHGs, equity,
etc.?
Ease of travel
Travel cost reduction
Higher highway
speeds
Increased features
New user groups
Mode switch
Incre
ase e
nerg
y c
onsum
ption
De
cre
ase e
nerg
y c
onsum
ption
Vehicle/powertrain resizing
Platooning
Vehicle right-sizing
Eco-driving
De-emphasized
performance
Improved crash avoidance
Changed mobility services
Congestion mitigation
Source: Wadud et al. (2016)
*Now posted at OPR’s Automated Vehicles website*:
Automated Vehicle Principles for Healthy
and Sustainable Communities*
State’s Efforts to Nudge AVs Toward Sustainable Transportation Goals
1. Shared use
2. Pooled
3. Low-emissions
4. Right-sized
4. Part of an efficient multimodal
system
5. Efficient land use
6. Complete and livable streets
7. Transportation equity
25
New Requirements for Fleets
Governor’s Executive Order to begin fleet
regulation
• Light-duty and heavy-duty
• Likely select fleets initially
SB 1014 (Skinner)
• Ride hailing fleets
• Include automated fleet vehicles
• New mechanisms to address VMT
• Encourage ZEVs
26
Freight Actions Milestones
27
ZE Local Trucks
Low-
Emission
Diesel Fuel
ZE Forklifts
Freight Handbook
Module 1
Low NOx Trucks
ZE TRUs
ZE Ships at Berth
ZE Truck
Certification
Truck
Phase 2 GHG
Select SIP
Commitments
Lower Truck In-use Emissions
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Non-preempted
Locomotives
ZE Cargo
Handling
Equipment
Freight Handbook
(Additional Modules)
Idling at
Rail Yards+
Freight Hub
Enforcement
SPB Ports Drayage Truck Rate
ZE Drayage
Trucks
Harbor Craft
Additional Actions
Lack of Affordable Housing Means
Living Farther from Work
Percent of Total Homes Needed that have
Received Permits, by Income Level
“The supply of housing in many regions is a small fraction of the need, particularly homes affordable to low-income communities, which is contributing to lengthening commutes.”
CARB’s 2018 Progress Report
28
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Very Low Low Moderate AboveModerate
Southern California Association of Governments
SCAG is ~4 years (50%) into
their 8-year cycle (2016 data)
Source: Annual Housing Report
Data excludes jurisdictions without complete reports.
Accelerate Vehicle Electrification
for Carbon Neutrality• Vehicle costs declining, but
need new actions to spur rapid demand growth for Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Need to accelerate EV/hydrogen fuel infrastructure growth
• Need strategic plans for vehicle-grid integration in communities
29
Early Next Steps
• CARB’s new Sustainable
Transportation &
Communities Division
• CARB is developing
permanent relationships
with other agencies, like
California Transportation
Commission
30
Sustainable Transportation
& Communities
Division
Research
Climate Investments
Advanced Clean Cars
Transportation
Planning
Thank you!
31
Backup / additional slides
32
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MM
tCO
2e
pe
r ye
ar Current Programs
Transportation Sector Goals
On-Road California GHG Emission Trends
(under current programs) and GHG Targets
Zero Emissions Vehicle & Plug-In Hybrid
Electric Vehicle Cumulative Sales & Targets
33
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030V
eh
icle
Sa
les
US California
CA 2025
target
CA 2030
target
ZEV Sales are Gaining Momentum &
Market Share
34
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
An
nu
al
Mark
et
Sh
are
(p
erc
en
t)
Veh
icle
Sale
s
Annual California ZEV and PHEV Sales (through August 2018)
BEV PHEV FCEV Market ShareSource: Auto Alliance Sales Dashboard
HDV Proposed Electric Drive Programs
• Innovative Clean Transit (Sept 2018)
• Transit fleet transition to zero-emission by 2040
• Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle (Feb 2019)
• Public and private fixed-route airport shuttles
• All zero-emission by 2035
• Zero-Emission Powertrain Certification (Feb 2019)
• Ensure greater transparency and in-use support for HD electric and fuel-cell vehicles and the powertrains they use
• Advanced Clean Trucks (Late-2019)
• Manufacturer sales requirement
• Portion of California sales as zero-emission
• Start with model year 2024 (Class 2B+)
35
HDV Proposed electric drive programs (cont.)
• Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Bus (Dec 2018)
• Public and private fixed-route airport shuttle buses
• All zero-emission by 2036
• Zero-Emission Powertrain Certification (Dec 2018)
• Ensure reliability and performance for ZE trucks and
buses
• Zero-Emission Drayage Truck Rule (2022)
• Implementation 2026+
36
Carbon Pricing & Investments
37
Taking Action in Communities
Most Impacted by Air
Pollution
38
10 initial communities were selected to
serve as statewide models